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Phil, one of our regulars made an interesting comment here about a third force handing over victory to President Kibaki in the coming general elections and he was right. Except that the third force that seems to be now taking shape in Kenyan politics seems has an uncanny resemblance to the third force in 2002-Narc or the National Rainbow Coalition. And rather than handing over victory to anybody, they will have a decent chance of winning.
If I can jog your memory a little. Narc was formed from the fallout in Kanu after Moi declared Uhuru Kenyatta to be the Kanu presidential candidate. So effectively the third force was a merger between elements in NAK (quite a number declined to join Narc) and rebels from Kanu.
This time it would seem that the third force will benefit almost equally from both Narc-Kenya and ODM-Kenya to form a formidable political alliance that could easily end up stealing the elections from right under the noses of Narc-Kenya and ODM in December.
And more and more, it seems that the catalyst of that third force will be (surprise surprise) Kanu. Yes, the former mama na baba party that ruled Kenya with an iron hand for 40 years.
It is no secret that the main driving force in Kanu is retired President Moi and the party is cleverly positioning itself to embrace the inevitable fallout that will occur after the ODM presidential nomination. In fact there are those who believe that the ODM split has already started happening, just watch carefully all those candidates who did not hand in their presidential nomination forms. The fallout in Narc Kenya will be even larger and will happen over a much longer period of time. It has already started and will end up with the nomination exercise for parliamentary candidates. Disgruntled elements after the nomination for parliamentary candidates within ODM will be less than those in Narc, but some of the big names here will join the third force ad will carry the day in their constituencies.
Fascinatingly this means that the chances are high that nobody will even realize what is happening until the election results start trickling in.
The big question now is who the presidential candidate of that third force will be. My eyes are on three names. Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi.
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Chris, we've heard from the grapevine that the 3rd force have actually taken over the Democractic Party and they have been actively financing it over the last few months. They were actually the 4th force before Kombo betrayed Ngilu over EALA nominees stand-off last week. Many people are not happy with NARK-K politics and ODM-K is just too hot (read too democratic) for some to handle - actually none of them luminaries can beat RO in a fair contest be it delegates or consensus. I am not sure about your line-up for the 3rd force but I am informed principal players are Uhuru, Saitoti and Kalonzo. Mudavadi is out, he has never forgotten the 2002 debacle. The criminals of the last 4 decades cannot just imagine a Raila led government - chances are high that they will be made to pay either through jail or through public apologies and amnesty. Meanwhile Kombo knows FORD-K doesnt stand any realistic chance in the national platform and he knows exactly which side of the bread is buttered. Infact what Kombo is doing might not be illegal, but it is highly immoral. Ngilu is awaiting Kalonzo's defection from ODM before she joins in. She, Bishop Wanjiru and Sally Kosgei are Raila's bet in wooing the women and youth vote. One of them will end up being VP in a Raila led govt. But then again, who is the hidden hand meddling in national politics? Why cant Moi relax and enjoy his retirement? Is he fearing a Charles Taylor-like arrest? I wonder.
ReplyDeleteVery shortly, and this I profusely profess; Kalonzo will wail his lungs out about some “coming soon” shabby treatment. With tears gushing from his big eyes, ataenda kusitaki Raila, Ruto na Balala kwa baba yake…kwa jina lingine; Moi. The father will sit his son, Kalonzo, on his lap and say, “ Si nilikwambia uwache kucheza na hao machokora”. After scolding the child, Moi will give him a lollipop then match him across the street to their house; KANU.
ReplyDeleteI’m sure the opposition cannot stomach Kibaki, however, I don’t think they distatste him enough to forsake their candidatures and back only one idiot. You say third force? ……rather, brace yourself for a “failure guaranteed” seven pronged opposition jab at the presidency.
Oh yeah, people will always be crucified for refusing to support the SPOTLESSLY CLEAN Raila Odinga. I wonder what parameters u people use to define corruption. When a cabinet minister uses the GSU officers who are paid from state coffers to fight his village political wars in Ugunja, is that not corruption? You people seem to always think corruption has to involve directly fleecing the exchequer. And even if corruption were to mean pocketing citizens money, then Raila ranks high among the corrupt (He literally is the equivalent of Ceaser, directly collecting money from unsuspecting gullibles) . You will be very comfortable dealing with the easy to forget type but you can be sure we will not be letting you off the hook, no, not just yet. Sometimes in 2000, Anyang Nyong'o nearly came to blows with Oburu Oginga about the mollasses plant. Anyang Nyong'o was demanding an audit of the kitty to which Oburu retorted that Nyong'o should be quiet coz he never contributed a penny. Nyong'o reminded him he had contributed Ksh1000 and so he had every right to question that. Asked why he couldnt confront raila, he said the latter had become too big to be approached (He was the almighty minister). Nyong'o however promised to take the war to parliament and he actually did.
ReplyDeleteThis may sound a bit off topic but it is a response to Phil's allegation that anybody would fear a Raila presidency coz he was supposed to be cleaner than anyone else. If anybody was to fear being jailed, then that person should be sally.
There is this relentless attempt by the intolerant to deny other people their rights of active political participation. What difference should one draw between Phil and Kiraitu if they both feel they are more kenyan than Moi? Why the hell should anyone think that Moi is a somali national who has no stake at all in kenyan politics? Bill Clinton, the man the world considers to be America's third greatest president ever is the chief campaign advisor of Senator Hillary Clinton and yet he is the immediate former president. Why is nobody crying foul? Come on guys, this is the science of competitive politics and if raila doesnt fancy playing in the same league with Moi, he will always have the option of relegating to serie B where tribal chiefs like Kombo call the shots.
About the third force, that was obvious from the word go. It is not even going to be a third force, it is going to be free for all scenario. Why is Kalonzo Musyoka having return legs in the Rift valley when he has not been to Luo Nyanza? Why is Raila Odinga becoming a frequent visitor of Nyamira-Kisii when he has not set foot in machackos? The answer is that these gentlemen have no time to waste. The voting masses in these regions will certainly be singing different songs to what these candidates want to hear. They will be pulling in the opposite direction.
The first big political walk-out is happening in a month's time. It will either be led by raila or kalonzo. After that the talk of the day will be post-election coalitions. Kalonzo will be a candidate, Raila another, Uhuru another and Ruto. These amatures will be up against a combned onslaught of Kibaki, Saitoti, kombo and Ngilu in a coalition called Narc. The outcome will be a landslide victory for Kibaki but with a relatively few number of legislators. He will then strive to form a GNU to avert chaos in parliament. Kalonzo, Ruto, and Uhuru will be forced to eat humble pie and accept ministerial positions in the new dispensation.
I have been wrong before though
Upuzi mtupu hii mambo ya ODM (Omena Dunya Muthokoi). Uhuru asha hepa na hivi karibuni Kalonzo will be on is way. These two and probably Balala are the only corrupt free of the odm idlers. The likes of Vikii and phil can dream vile wanataka but nobody wants a discontinuity in the development curve. That's what Baby Face Kalonzo and company have sensed and the only rational thing to do is for Kalonzo to sign a binding document with Kibaki to become veep.
ReplyDeleteUhuru bado ni kijana mdogo and we will give him a nomination to parliament as a reward for his support. Balala can be foreign affairs boss. We dont want ruto, mudavadi na raila. Hao machalii wanaeza sambaza wizi kwa gava. George saitot anafaa kuwajoin jela. Ubaya wake habongagi na hawa majamaa ni wa mdomo.
Meanwhile odm wanafaa kujiuliza kitu which wamedoia mafollowers zao. Hakuna mtu anajua hata vile dough ya kibera cdf imedo. Oh, sorry, imebuy hummer.
Meet u guys in the ballot.
Mwas, hebu tupatie details za development curve. Labda tunaota kweli. Ballot ni kitu tumezoea. Kumbukuka referendum? Kura za by-election zina eza ibiwa - lakini sio za national elections.
ReplyDelete