Raila, Kalonzo Rivalry Emerges at Peace Rally in North Rift

What ails the NSIS?

Kibaki and Raila start Peace Mission in Rift Valley

Those following Citizen TV's live transmission pictures of today's peace rallies in North Rift at Eldoret's Keino Stadium must have been amused to see Raila officially invite the president to address the gathering only for VP Kalonzo to rush to the microphones, briefly addressed the gathering before inviting the president.

Not only does this minor incident show a disorganised presidential programme but also gives IDPs little encouragement to reconcile with their own former neighbours. It is also a prelude of an interesting Kibaki succession battle.

Matters were not made better when the mammoth crowd spent the better part of time cheering ODM ministers. At one point, the crowd shouted to Agriculture Minister William Ruto to allow Lands Minister James Orengo to address the gathering, only for him to be denied the chance at the behest of presidential protocol officials. Indeed, land is the major sticking point of all Kenya's problems and Orengo is going to be a man with a lot of work in his hands in the future.

Earlier, the president, PM Raila and their ministers had toured the Eldoret IDP camp and said: "We do not want you people to continue living here and suffering, we will solve this problem very soon. We are here as leaders. ... We can solve all the problems in order for peace to exist."

As at the time of posting this, the presidential entourage were addressing a peace rally in Cherangani and Raila, speaking after Kalonzo, has officially welcomed the president to address the rally. Kibaki has now taken upon himself to invite James Orengo to say jambo to the public amidst thunderous applause from Cherangani residents.

Cabinet Anxiety: Fencesitters Not Decided

Despite a joint statement issued by PPS yesterday to the effect that discussions between Raila Odinga as leader of ODM and Mwai Kibaki of PNU and possibly conclude successfully and name a grand coalition, it is now past 16h00 heading towards the end of the day and the two have not met.

During the day, a PNU parliamentary group meeting was called off without notice. Initially Kibaki was to chair this meeting at KICC, then PNU MPs received text messages saying the Vice President would chair the meeting then another text came in announcing the meeting had been called off indefinitely. The party is reportedly experiencing vicious power struggle that has resulted in deep divisions to the point that the mediations talks have had to be called off for lack of quorum.

Meanwhile at Pentagon House, ODM top brass met early today and sent unequivocal letter in which ODM said it would make no further concessions and that Kibaki should accept what was already agreed between him and Raila on Thursday last week. At the time of posting this, ODM leaders are still holed up at their Pentagon House, in anticipation of that important phone call that will announce PNU’s decision on cabinet portfolio .

As the president and his part cabinet continue to wait for Raila Odinga, the anxiety building countrywide. The current cabinet is also running the risk of being challenged in court because it is unconstitutional. In reality, any official business conducted by this government now and in the recent past is legally null and void. Meanwhile state house continues to embarrass itself when issuing public promises on the issue of cabinet when it knows the cabinet will only be formed upon the approval of Raila Odinga. It is no longer business as usual, Sir!

The same table and VIP seats that were used by Raila and Kibaki while signing the Annan Peace Accord on 28th February 2008 were yesterday carried towards the entrance steps at Harambee House in the hope that ODM would accept whatever portfolios Kibaki would throw at them. The same furniture has been seen being brought forward today and it remains to be seen whether Raila and Kibaki will use them.

It could only mean one thing: Raila will only come to Harambee House when Kibaki is ready to accept ODM preconditions for the cabinet portfolio balance. And my early prediction is that cabinet will be announced later today and that will be the beginning of a big fall-out in that party calling itself PNU.

Countdown To Grand Coalition Cabinet

Amidst growing disagreement on portfolio balance between ODM and PNU, President Mwai Kibaki has just arrived at Harambee House (10h30 local time). VP Kalonzo, Saitoti, Muthaura and Spokesman Alfred Mutua have met and escorted the president into his office.

ODM pentagon and party officials have skipped church and are said to have been meeting at Pentagon House since 08h00 this morning. Even William Ruto who only buried his father yesterday, arrived in Pentagon House earlier today. It is unclear what time the ODM will be heading to Harambee House.

President Kibaki had, through Government spokesman Alfred Mutua, indicated yesterday that he would go by the list disputed by ODM saying it was ‘final’ and based on consultations with Raila. Salim Lone has already disputed this and indicated that the list released by Dr. Mutua is unacceptable to ODM and the party will not make further concessions after accepting a bloated cabinet and making numerous concessions so as to progress peace.

Update at 10h55 Local Time

Raila Odinga has arrived at Harambee House for his meeting with Mwai Kibaki. He had earlier met members of the pentagon and senior party officials and left to meet Kibaki without addressing the press who have been camping at both venue since 6.30am today.

According to official program, Kibaki is set to unveil the new cabinet at 15h00 local time.

Uhuru Kenyatta, whose Ministry of Local Government is at the center of the dispute between ODM and PNU, is also said to be in the vicinity of Harambee House. He has threatened to lead what has been left of KANU out of the PNU should his ministry be given to ODM.

Update 11h05 Local Time

ODM Director of Communications informs the press that Raila is expected to reiterate to PNU that ODM has already made significant concessions in the formation of the grand coalition in the interest of resolving the post election crisis gripping our country and that the PNU should not expect any further concessions. In other words, ODM should not be dragged into PNU sucession wars and Kibaki should abide by the peace accord signed between himself and Raila which inter alia says: "........composition of the coalition government shall at all times reflect the relative parliamentary strengths of the respective parties and shall at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance."

Update 11.50 Local Time

Kenya Government spokesman Alfred Mutua releases statement indicating that Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibai are presently in a closed door one-on-one meeting; without any one from their respective delegations in attendance. ODM Leader had been accompanied by members of the Pentagon while Kibaki's ministers, including the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka had arrived in Harambee House much earlier than the president himself. It seems Mutua statement is to inform the public that the president and ODM leader are meeting on their own, while the rest are waiting outside.

Update 13h00 Local Time

Kibaki and Raila are still holed up in their meeting. No announcements have been made as yet. The original plan was for the president to announce the grand coalition cabinet today at 15h00 hours, only two hours away. Unless Kibaki and Raila rise above partisan politics and make decisions on the contentious portfolio balance that will move this country forward, then the cabinet will not be named today.

Update 15h00 Local Time

Kibaki and Raila have hit a deadlock. Members of PNU half cabinet and others from ODM are presently trooping into Harambee House in droves. No official word has been released but it appears Kibaki and Raila have opted to expand the meeting by involving members of their own teams into a meeting that will be reconvened at 04h00 local time. It shows determination by the president and Raila to name the cabinet today but it also shows perhaps for the first time, Kibaki and Raila one-on-one closed door meetings have failed to yield acceptable results between the two principals.

Finding A Centre

Last week the Kenyan Parliament debated the peace deal signed last week between President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) and Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

The main points of the agreement provide for constitutional changes that will see the creation of the post of prime minister - which Odinga is expected to occupy - and the formation of a coalition government by the two parties.

The deal has been widely welcomed and it is hoped that it will put an end to the ethnic violence that killed more than 1 500 Kenyans since elections in late December. But, as the agreement's main mediator, Kofi Annan, said prior to departing Kenya: "The journey is far from over. In fact, it is only the beginning."

Stephanie Wolters (Mail and Guardian) spoke to the ODM's Raila Odinga about the challenges that lie ahead.

If it is accepted, it will pave the way for the formation of a 50-50 coalition government, consisting of a minister from the ODM and the PNU. How do you propose to negotiate the formation of such a government?
The agreement says that the government will be shared on a 50-50 basis with particular regard to portfolio balance, which means that weightings can be put on some ministries as opposed to other ministries. This is something that is going to be negotiated with our political partners. We have already set up a team of three representatives from both parties.

Are there particular portfolios that the ODM wants?
No, I don't want to judge and we want to be fairly flexible, but there are certain important ministries that we want to share between the two sides.

Last week you met Kibaki for the first time outside of the framework of negotiations. Why should the Kenyan public believe that you can work together and have the political will to put the country ahead of the political ambitions of your parties?
I think there are historical circumstances that have dictated that we must work together and I don't think that there are any particular obstacles that lie between me and Kibaki. We worked together in the past in a coalition government. If Nelson Mandela could work with FW de Klerk, I don't see why Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki cannot work in a government.

The ODM and the PNU have very different views on economic distribution. You campaigned on a platform of more equitable distribution of the country's resources through decentralisation, playing on the perception that the ruling party has favoured its ethnic base. Now that you are in a coalition government with that party, how do you propose to pursue your supporters' desire for more equitable distribution of the country's resources?
Yes, it is true that our campaign platforms are very different in certain areas. [For example] we want to see more equitable distribution of resources in our country through a devolved system of government and very strong anti-corruption measures … Those are the issues that we have agreed we must address beforehand and the team we have set up together, apart from negotiating the structure of government, is going to deal with the harmonisation of the manifestos of our different parties … so that we can come up with one common programme.

These types of negotiations could take some time. How will you convince local leaders that their grievances are being addressed and that violence is not the means of addressing their concerns?
This should not take too much time. I am sure the PNU would also like to see some of these issues addressed. Except it did not prioritise them. I do expect that by the time we form the government, common ground will have been reached on most of these issues.

It is not a question of just forming a coalition government; it has to be based on something, that is why we are negotiating up front to agree on a communal programme to take to the people as a compromise. That is what coalitions are all about, so we will really come towards the centre.

Has the violence of the past two months permanently transformed ethnic relations in Kenya?
Certainly it has confounded things, so the country is more polarised along the ethnic … lines than any time since before independence. We will need to work on reconciliation for society, so that we refuse the polarisation that has taken place in the past two months

According to the terms of the peace deal, it falls apart when one of the two parties walks out of the coalition government. What is a deal breaker for you?
A deal breaker would be if for example the other partner refuses to facilitate the carrying out of the reforms which we have all agreed to, in particular the constitutional, legal and institutional reforms that this county so much desires. If there is a stonewalling, it will be sufficient grounds for the break-up of the coalition.

The Kibaki government had close relations with the United States and has been criticised by the Kenyan Muslim community for its cooperation with the practice of extraordinary renditions. Will you push for change in this relationship?
We have very good relations with the US and I don't see that anybody wants to destroy that, we want to strengthen that relationship.

We agree with the US that they have genuine reasons to fight crime, terrorism and so on. We are an ally in the fight against terrorism, except that ... we believe that if Kenyans commit crimes on Kenyan soil, then they should be tried by Kenyan law. This is an issue that we are going to discuss with the US and with our own coalition partners.

What advice do you have for Mugabe on how he handles the upcoming elections in Zimbabwe?
I have got very little regard for Mugabe. He used to be my hero once upon a time, but we parted ways when he began to use a big stick to deal with his political adversaries. I think he is a disgrace to the African continent and the time has really come for him to try to move on and let other people govern. I don't think it is right for someone to hold a country hostage for generations. I think it is not right for Africa.

This article has been adapted from Mail & Guardian, News Insight

Kibaki Succession Rages as Kenya Burns

With Stanley Murage fired from State House, the Kibaki succession is ragging oblivious of the national haemorrhage. The daggers are menacingly drawn as Muhoho warms himself to succeed Murage. Other predators think that Uhuru will gain undue advantage to prey Kenya from his uncle.

Well, scavengers are strategically circling carcass Kenya. Woe unto those cheap schemers wo think that either George Kiarie Kinuthia Muthengi (aka) Saitoti or Martha Karua are church ministers and flower girls respectively from Matasia Ngong and Gichugu.

In by the sword out by the same blade. Murage filled the void left by Kireri and before he could say Artur he is out of favour. Granted, his intentions to patch a ceasefire document using Collin Bruce may have been honest and noble. But a time comes when costly political sacrifices must be made and his head fell on the chopping block.

Mutahi Ngunyi saw it as early as December 2003 if we thought Moi was the political devil incarnate then we haven't seen the mother of all evil in Kibaki. Using the ordinary Kikuyu to pamper their political egos, Kibaki's cronies are busy scheming on the scramble and partitioning of Kenya (ala Bismark) as blood rains on our streets and villages.

While Nakuru smolders, Kibaki's apologists may thumb their chests in self-delusion that it is a square deal. Well, we haven't seen anything yet from the Wanjohi-Muhoho-Wanjui troika. To these leeches Kenyans are nothing but guard flies who cannot and will NEVER stop them from their selfish schemes. But wait a minute! This is the 21st Century and Kenyans far smarter than these Makerere dinosaurs with their sole agenda of domination. Never, not again. Na bado.