The first option—and perhaps the one the regime is most tempted by—is simply to repeat the 2022 strategy. This involves going ahead with original plans to "rig" the outcome and force a return to power. But there is a massive problem: the Kenyan voter of 2026 is not the same person they were four years ago.
Between 2022 and now, the learning curve for Kenyans has been incredibly steep. In the past, successful regimes relied on controlling information, keeping the public misinformed or silent. But today, the internet transmits information at lightning speed. We’ve seen the Ol Kalou by-elections serve as a real eye-opener, teaching citizens exactly how to protect their votes. This flow of information has even birthed what some call the "Internet President," Edwin Sifuna—a Cinderella candidate who rose from the digital noise to challenge the status quo. When the public knows the tricks, the magician loses his power.
The Chaos Strategy: Postponing the Inevitable
Then there’s the "nuclear option": creating a situation where it is impossible to hold elections at all. We’ve all seen the whispers on social media about a potential "state of emergency" to postpone the 2027 polls. In politics, these moves usually only work if no one sees them coming.
The reason the current administration was so successful in 2022 was that they caught the nation by surprise. But in 2026, the mood is different. The country is at a boiling point. People are talking about rigging and postponements in every corner of the web and every mainstream media outlet. When the public is already braced for a move, pulling the trigger becomes infinitely more dangerous. Kenyans are unlikely to accept any delay that keeps the current regime in power a day longer than the constitution allows.
A Lesson from the Ghost of 2002
Perhaps the most fascinating path is the one once walked by Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. In 2002, the intelligence was clear: KANU was going to lose. Moi, an experienced politician, didn't just walk away; he sent negotiators to the incoming regime. His leverage? He was the one holding the keys to the handover.
Moi eventually took a chopper to his Kabarak farm, but the "deal" he thought he had quickly began to crumble. He was tailed by intelligence and faced a parliament that wanted him behind bars for past crimes. Then, something happened that most Kenyans still cannot explain: Raila Amollo Odinga—the man with the permanent physical scars from Moi's detentions—stepped in to save his former oppressor. Why did Raila save the man who caused him so much pain? The answer is a masterclass in the "deep state" of Kenyan power plays, and it’s a warning to any leader thinking a "handover deal" is a guaranteed safety net.
The Most Viable (and Most Controversial) Path
This brings us to the fourth option: the one move that requires a level of foresight most leaders simply don't possess. It involves stepping down before the year 2027 even arrives.
There is a world of difference between leaving power while you still control the country and trying to negotiate your future after you’ve already lost an election and the people are in the streets. If a regime resigns early, they choose the time, the place, and the terms. They remain flexible.
Yet, history tells us that leaders rarely see the end coming. They wait until the exit doors are locked from the outside and the crowd is at the gate. Is the current administration the exception to the rule, or are we watching a slow-motion collapse?
Watch the full breakdown here to see which option Chris thinks is the most likely to unfold.
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