Cabinet: Finance Docket is Reserved!

PIC: Will see you soon; Kimunya, Mbaru, Kibaki and Nganga

Let’s face it. The country is being held hostage by vested interests in the Kibaki succession. In failing to fill vacant cabinet posts, the very reasons attributed to the post election violence by Kriegler and Waki are being put into play!

Long after the Bomet and Sotik by-elections, and Kimunya’s ouster, the ODM was ready to refill its dockets soon after the Mps-elect were sworn in, but the cabinet reshuffle is being held back by fierce infighting in the PNU camp. The heat arising out of the secret envelope of the Waki report is not relenting and the President’s indecisiveness is not helping matters either.

The country continues to go without a sworn-in Finance Minister who holds the constitutional mandate to sign certain bills, bilateral agreements and gazette notices. The current holder of the post, John Michuki, also doubling as Environment Minister, is only acting capacity and therefore unqualified to discharge duties of a finance minister effectively.

Reports are emerging that John Michuki has declined an offer to permanently take up the Finance position because the former holder Amos Kimunya has been declared innocent by the Commission of Enquiry set up by the president to investigate him. Never mind that, unlike other commission reports so far compiled this year, the Kimunya dossier is known only to the President, the commissioners themselves and a few individuals around state house, plus of course friendly pressmen at Royal Media and Nation Media. Never mind also that a parliamentary committee has already declared Kimunya as unfit to hold a cabinet position.

Perhaps most worrying, is that it is apparent that the Finance docket has been reserved and will only go to individual(s) whose origins are not just PNU coalition but also from a certain part of Kenya. Did the president not pledge to heed the advise in the Waki and Kriegler reports? The names being dropped by PNU-friendly media have mentioned MPs sharing more than one commonality with the President. Even during Moi’s dictatorial regime, there was never a finance minister who hailed from Moi’s backyard for a whole 24 years, 10 of those in multi-party politics. Phew!

Although there are numerous individuals within the currently full-capacity National Assembly who are more than qualified and can be appointed Finance Minister, it is obvious that they are technically disqualified because they do not share any commonality with the president and are therefore are unfit to hold the finance docket.

Meanwhile, the country continues to be served by acting ministers, contrary to the constitution and contrary to the NARA accord. All because, the kitchen cabinet is working on a Kimunya rehabilitation plan and the president is seemingly not in full control of an increasingly hostile parliament.

Another spanner has been thrown into the succession works by a stubborn Martha Karua. Being the person who single-handedly saved the PNU coalition during the inauguration of the tenth parliament, she is herself pushing for an end to what she calls politics of anointment and has challenged those interested in the presidency to face her in the field, instead of running to Kibaki because they hope to be declared his successor.

Further to this is that the fiercely independent Justice minister is edging closer to ODM this is causing panic within the PNU wing of government given that most of the reform agenda lies in her docket. The only solution it would appear is to transfer her to another less glamorous ministry or sack her altogether but, just like in the finance docket, PNU are desperately short of qualified individuals to take up this critical docket. Quite surprising considering it is now a grand coalition with a full parliament to choose from.

My suggestion: Appoint Prof. Anyang Nyongo as Finance Minister, transfer Prof. Ongeri to the health docket and promote Dr. Mwiria as Education minister. Kazi kwisha.

PNU Now Walking Same Doomed Path KANU Walked in 2002

Uhuru handed PNU ticket as Kalonzo retreats to ODM-K!

In 2002 KANU was a powerful political machine but the disgraceful management of the Moi succession ended its 40 year grip on power. We are now in 2008, KANU is virtually dead and signs are that we shall be going to an all important constitutional referendum in 2009 and possibly a general election shortly thereafter followed by Kibaki’s retirement.

Recent reports indicate that the PNU succession structure has been finalized and not so surprisingly, the so called president’s principal assistant, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has been upstaged by KANU Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta as the preferred torch bearer of post Kibaki PNU. Not totally unexpected, but ever since Kalonzo was persuaded to pressure the ECK into announcing controversial presidential results on the premise that he would be given the Vice President’s docket plus several cabinet positions for his party ODM-K, he has fallen over himself wooing the GEMA voters. He has visited Central and Upper Eastern provinces at any given opportunity in the mistaken belief that the rich GEMA vote basket would be his for the taking following Kibaki’s retirement. It brings back memories of 2007 when Kalonzo persistently and unsuccessfully attempt to court the Rift Valley vote through the AIC church.

The last time I checked, Kalonzo was playing amateurish politics assembling Dubai bound councillors and telling that he had no qualms with them undertaking the Harun Mwau sponsored trip as if he has any powers to stop them in the first place. Kalonzo further assured councillors that ODM-K would sponsor a motion in parliament proposing a salary raise for civic leaders, forgetting that only a few months ago, millions of Kenyan workers were denied their annual salary increase during Labour Day celebrations by none other than President Kibaki! Many political observers believe Kalonzo and Uhuru’s moves to dissolve ODM-K and KANU is being driven the fear that these two parties cannot pass the acid test that is the Political Parties Act 2007 The two politicians have been singing the unity song since the formation of the grand coalition.

Now it emerges that the blessed PNU succession line-up features Uhuru as 1st Vice Chairman (read presidential torch bearer), a very reluctant Moses Wetangula as 2nd Vice Chairman (read running mate – words that have no meaning in Kenya’s volatile politics), Mutula Kilonzo as Secretary General and George Nyamweya as Organizing Secretary. The Treasurers position is being reserved for rebels and all of the top PNU positions are to have two deputies.

With a retirement bound Kibaki being given the Chairman’s post, Kalonzo’s name had initially been proposed for the high sounding Deputy Party Leader post, but events on the ground became too hot forcing PNU to abandon the Party Leader post and in the process left Kalonzo without any significant party position. Clearly, the PNU structure has been crafted with Kibaki succession / general elections in mind and with the political parties act hovering above their heads, there is no other option but to call for the dreaded grassroot elections.

Interestingly, the PNU top line-up does not feature FORD-K, FORD-P, SHIRIKISHO, SAFINA or any of the other numerous parties that supported Kibaki’s bid for the presidency in 2007.

To complicate the PNU succession equation even further, KANU ‘owners’ led by ex-President Moi have disowned Uhuru’s move to dissolve the independence party by flatly refusing to join the PNU bandwagon.

Even more significantly, Mzee Moi is said to have finally accepted that Agriculture minister and ODM pentagon member William Ruto is now politically superior to himself and his favourite son Gideon Moi in so far as Rift Valley is concerned. In other words, Moi is using the elders to send an olive branch to the ODM, especially Raila Odinga who many observers opine will be the man to beat in the next general elections.

Mzee Moi is keen on rehabilitating his son Gideon back into the national political platform through KANU, a party that has been lying on its death bed since the December 2007 general elections. Given Moi’s strong emotional attachment to KANU, rather than have the independence party dissolved like Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta appears to have decided, the senior Moi recently invited Kalenjin elders to his palatial Kabarak home to apologise for his mistakes in 2002 (read backing Uhuru) and 2007 (read backing Kibaki).

In the meantime, George Saitoti and Martha Karua are watching events in PNU with a keen eye. Saitoti is planning to use his massive wealth to sponsor candidates in the PNU grassroots polls so as to have an upper hand when the PNU National Delegates Congress is called to choose national officials and the party torch bearer. Saitoti is banking on Kibaki to endorse him as successor due to their closeness and also by virtue of being the senior most of all PNU presidential contenders.

Martha Karua, whose popularity in Central Province is worrying Uhuru Kenyatta, has declared that her interest for the presidency is real and that NARC-K will not be dissolved for the sake of PNU unity. Karua’s chances of mounting a serious presidential bid is largely influenced by her long time association with the civil society and if James Orengo’s experience is anything to go by, then Karua will be in for the shock of her life when election results are announced. As it is, she lacks the prerequisite resources in terms of finance and the vital grassroot representation at the district and locational levels. Her defence of ECK and PNU earlier in the year makes her an instant enemy in most parts of Kenya and she would require to shelter under the massive political umbrella of Raila Odinga’s ODM to be gradually accepted nationally.

The game is on, will PNU survive or will it go the KANU way?

Coming Soon: Major Cabinet Reshuffle to Name New VP…., Snap Elections Next?

Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Trade Uhuru Kenyatta answers journalists' questions during a press conference during the fifth day of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) ministerial summit on trade liberalisation talks, at the WTO headquarters, in Geneva, Switzerland, Friday, July 25, 2008.

For this country Kenya, the dreaded month of August has historically meant a national disaster or major calamity of some sort. For many Nairobi residents, today’s miserable weather in which the city witnessed unusual persistent showers and low temperatures could not have come at a worse day which also happens to be the first day of the jinxed month of August.

Sadly, information reaching this blogger will not make it better for any of you Kumekuchans. Sources inform this blogger that major political realignments are already underway even as anxiety grips the political class. Not only are cabinet ministers and MPs avoiding unpredictable Wilson airport flights, they remain acutely aware of unforeseen career-ending events that are beyond their individual control within the political arena .

Information leaking out of the corridors of power have got observers asking themselves how deeply indebted is this country to the so called first families? This follows revelations that the Kibaki succession is now about to precipitate a major cabinet re-shuffle aimed at elevating Uhuru Kenyatta to Vice President and in the process put him in pole position to be named the country’s next President?

Another shocker is that both government intelligence and other independent pollsters are already rating the Justice minister and fast rising Martha Karua as the most popular presidential candidate in Central Province at a whopping 65%. This is a marginal reduction from the surveys done early this year where she was rated much higher. Do the math of the number of registered voters in GEMA zones and you will have answered yourself as to why Steadman last week cleverly limited the survey to Raila and Kibaki and then went ahead and called it “highest approval ratings in performance” as opposed to “highest popularity rankings” of the already known presidential candidates as they have done in the past? Even more interesting, Steadman are still insisting on ranking President Kibaki whom every Kenyan knows is serving his last term and is no longer relevant to the future of this country. This is just but one of the reasons that the Justice & Constitutional Affairs minister will be a victim of the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle. Another obvious reason is to move Karua as far away as possible from the explosive and highly incriminating commissions of inquiry reports that have been gathering dust in government shelves.

According to impeccable sources, the current president is being bogged down by ill-health and his advance age. The fact that he will automatically be ineligible to seek re-election having served the constitutional maximum two terms is a major factor is forcing him to throw in the towel and open public speculation of an impending snap election. Matters are not made any better considering the well being of the first lady has been subject of intense rumour mongering since the botched December 2007 elections! The immediate first family is said to be deeply concerned about the welfare of the duo and are probably behind the fast-tracking of succession arrangements.

Insider strategists opine that the only way to safely leapfrog the Annan resolutions without being accused of sabotage is to call a snap general election that shall usher in a newly mandated government without any extra baggage obliging them to honour any post 2007 election deals. More importantly, it will ensure continuity of the old order under the preferred current constitution.

Folks, it is not a question of IF, but WHEN Martha Karua is inducted into the powerful ODM pentagon. The expanded pentagon is expected to be representative of the face of Kenya. Uhuru’s camp assume that Raila Odinga and his ODM gang will have their fate sealed as soon as the NARA accord collapses. The president appears to have decided that he will leave it to Vice President (read- Project II) Uhuru Kenyatta to decide how to handle Raila and Karua whom are expected to accept their official opposition role since Kenya remains a multiparty democracy.

Kalonzo's fate in the post Kibaki alignments remains unclear but what is clear is that he has out-lived his political usefulness in the current set-up. Uhuru's appointment, unlike Musalia's in 2002, is being aimed at giving him an upperhand in the succession battlefront. It is being left to Uhuru to determine whom he will form an alliance with.

Kumekuchans you can take the information you read on this post/blog to the bank. In other words, you should expect to vote again much earlier than 2012.

Secret Succession Deal: Has Kibaki Endorsed Raila for 2012?

President Mwai Kibaki, accompanied by Nyeri Town MP Hon. Esther Mathenge is escorted by jubilant wananchi after he unveiled the new Gikuyu Bible at Kamukunji Stadium, Nyeri.

While it is debatable that the president asked politicians to desist campaigning for 2012, me thinks he is the least qualified person to instruct other ambitious politicians to avoid campaigning.

After the tragic events of December 2007, Kibaki should, in my opinion, be looking to engage in nationalistic matters that will rebuild his shattered image and help him in creating a lasting legacy since he will not be candidate himself for presidency ever again.

In so far as political instability or bickering is concerned, only two naive politicians, both of them aligned to Kibaki’s PNU wing of government, have publicly shown interest and started early campaigns for the presidency. They are Martha Karua and Kalonzo Musyoka.

But then it appears Kibaki's Nyeri trip was not just about unveiling a Gikuyu bible. A political bombshell was dropped while some very thorny barbs were thrown at some unnamed but well known individual(s) within Kibaki’s own PNU coalition. His off the cuff remarks were like an open declaration that Raila is not just his second in command but also his choice for president come 2012. These were his words; "There is no power vacuum and the current leadership arrangement in the country is well defined with a president and Raila as principal assistant." Note that the president did not say prime minister but principal assistant. These remarks were, as expected, largely ignored by Kenya’s highly compromised mainstream media but anyone who watched prime time TV news on Saturday night could not have missed it. If I were Kalonzo Musyoka, I would seriously think about putting a water-tight plan B in place.

It seems the president has secretly made a succession deal with Raila for 2012 and has been dropping hints for anyone who cares to listen. Government officials, led by one Francis Muthaura, are quick at publishing pecking order clarifications, but on the other hand the president is actually naming “musaidizi wake anaitwa Raila” at a public function in his own Nyeri backyard and also categorically stating that even tomorrow’s leadership is already prebooked!

Kibaki also has harsh words for his Agikuyu community: "For how long shall Kenyan people continue to fight? Have you people from this region decided to abandon animosity? Kenyans must decide to abandon this retrogressive behavior."

He went on to castigate (well known unnamed) “political leaders for preaching disunity" and urged "those harbouring ambitions to lead the nation to await their ripe moment rather than distract wananchi from nation building. The president asked: “Do not think you will get the chance tomorrow because there are others on the leadership? Wait a little while so that we can see how you will get there. If you start campaigns now, we will be against you and say that we cannot trust you anymore." Further note the president appears to be suggesting that there is no chance for 2012 (tomorrow), while warning those who are campaigning now that they will not be trusted.

Kibaki’s controversial remarks over the weekend can be interpreted differently but the message is fairly straight forward. When one considers that plans for Raila’s controversial inauguration as an Agikuyu elder are also at an advanced stage, what would an open and unequivocal Kibaki endorsement mean to the possibility of Raila being (re)elected as president with landslide in the next general elections?