Is it Time for President Samuel Poghisio?

Minister for Information & Communication, ODM-Kenya Chairman and MP for Kacheliba Samuel Poghisio, gestures during an interview with Reuters in Nairobi February 6, 2008.

When it comes to alternative leadership, many Kenyans are quick to mention names like Maina Kiai, Mutava Musyimi, Wangari Maathai, John Githongo and so forth.

Has anyone looked at parliament in search for alternative leadership or does Kenya truly have a Barack Obama within our midst?

Me thinks there is!

Information and Communication minister, who is also the ODM-K MP for Kacheliba , Samuel Losurwon Poghisio is one such person. He also happens to be the latest Kenyan to declare his interest to run for presidency in 2012, presumably on ODM-K ticket.

In an elaborate series of thanksgiving and homecoming ceremonies in West Pokot district last week, Sam Poghisio not only announced his intention to run for president in 2012 but was also seemingly ‘endorsed’ by ODM-K party leader and V-P Kalonzo Musyoka, himself an interested party to the presidential ticket.

Sources reveal that before making this announcement, Poghisio has since late last year held deep consultations with Pokot elders, local MPs and political personalities who matter in the Upper Rift Valley region who have all showered him with praise, paid glowing tribute to his lengthy public service record and unequivocally supported his noble intentions to go for the presidency. Some of them have been quoted asking why ex-President Moi did not see the potential in Poghisio early enough.

Former Daystar University lecturer ‘Pogs’ (as he was popularly known by Daystar students) turns 50 this year and will be 54 by the next general elections in 2012. One of the longest serving MPs, Pogs was was first elected to parliament in 1988 at the age of 30 and has been consequently relected in 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007.

The 2007 general elections were most remarkable for Pogs, considering ODM swept most of the parliamentary seats in Kalenjin land. One of those that were spared was Kacheliba which elected an ODM-K MP, reputed to be the only one in the entire expansive Rift Valley province. Perhaps his strongest selling point is that, unlike most of the leading Rift Valley politicians, Poghisio is among the few moderate former KANU MPs who did not inherit their political mantles and remain largely untainted by corruption or ethnic cleansing allegations normally associated with bigwigs of the former ruling party. Interestingly, these KANU moderates, which featured the likes of the late Bonaya Godana and Robert Ouko, were generally acceptable to opposition supporters before and after the struggle of multi-party politics during those dark Moi days.

Most of his colleagues in parliament cutting across political parties rate Poghisio very highly and civil servants who have had the pleasure to serve under his ministry describe him as a strict but amenable boss.

Political analysts and a few Western diplomats believe a Poghisio presidency could help heal and unite the country. It could also offer the best chance for facilitation of fair, representative and acceptable constitutional reforms because, unlike ALL potential candidates from the so-called major tribes, Poghisio does not have any significant personality scores to settle with anybody in Kenya, and neither does he nor the Pokot people have any historical grievances that might cause a split in this country right down the middle. In other words, he carries no political burden that would work against him in the eyes of all Kenyan people.

What are his REAL chances of being elected president of Kenya?

To begin with, while still in ODM-K, Pogs has to contend with going beyond V-P Kalonzo Musyoka, who by virtue of being a sitting Vice President and the party’s former presidential candidate, has a huge headstart over Pogs. Even more challenging, the party is still in the hands of Daniel Maanzo who remains more of a Kalonzo ally than a Poghisio ally.

Beyond Kalonzo lie national challenges. Mwai Kibaki, Daniel Arap Moi and Jomo Kenyatta were all elected and supposedly ‘re-elected’ to the presidency under varying circumstances. But if the truth be told, they had to use incumbency to manipulate things in their favour so as to win. Pogs faces an uphill task and unfortunately Western diplomats or leaders who have so far endorsed him do not provide the millions of votes required to win a presidential contest.

One of the shortest ways to the the top of the political ladder is for Pogs to effectively market himself. And here, effective could mean staging a bloodless coup in ODK-K where he is already Chairman but his aim should be to take over and declare himself party leader. He has willing partners in the Kilonzos and Kubebea. Thereafter, he should immediately embark on establishing alliances with parties that can be sold countrywide as opposed to briefcase parties.

As a former high school teacher and university lecturer, Pogs is a man of modest means and even then, hails from one of those tribes that most Kenyans have very little knowledge of except perhaps cattle rustling and other backward behaviour. The Pokots are sometimes considered to be non-Kenyans and are frequently derogated to join their Karamoja kinsmen in Uganda. One important aspect of any presidential campaign in Kenya is the ability of the respective candidates to marshall funds that can adequately finance a formidable campaign effort. A conservative budget for both party and candidate can be placed at Kshs. 5 billion. Is Pogs ready to raise and part with this mind-boggling amount considering it is a risk that carries no guarantee of winning?

Controversy sells. As a politician who is on the threshold of his third decade in parliament, I bet he knows this very well. As a Pokot MP, he has courted many controversies, just like his mentor Francis Lotodo. But West Pokot District is not the same a platform as national politics. Poghiso will need to adopt radical positions (similar to what Raila Odinga, Martha Karua and William Ruto have done) so as to capture the national psyche. With the constitutional referendum coming up, it is a perfect opportunity for Pogs associate himself with the push for anything that identifies with the masses in West Pokot and the country at large (eg. devolution or parliamentary system) and then openly and radically push for its enactment in the final draft.

Poghisio belongs to the Nilotic Pokot sub-tribe of the Kalenjin who occupy the West Pokot and Baringo Districts of Rift Valley, Kenya and also in Eastern Karamoja on the Ugandan side of the border. There are less than 150,000 registered voters in the entire West Pokot district comprising three constituencies of Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor. He is already popular enough in West Pokot, he needs to extend this popularity in to neighbouring districts and eventually to the larger Rift Valley so as to be at par with, if not greater than, the William Rutos of this world.

In 2002, Mwai Kibaki’s election not only brought an end to KANU’s 40 years grip on power but it also successfully united the country as never seen since the formation of FORD in 1992. If any of the two leading political parties (ODM and PNU) could put ethnicity aside in 2012, then form an alliance with ODM-K (assuming the party nominates Pogs) and all rally behind Poghisio’s run for presidency (like they did Kibaki’s), then Kenyans can begin to boast to belong to the same league of 'tribeless' societies like Tanzania.

ODM- Kenya soon goes to its own retreat to discuss how it will comply with the provisions of the political parties act. Other than this challenge, the party will also have to discuss and resolve its future relationship with PNU and by extension the thorny issue of internal rebellion, as well as the recent declaration by its Chairman Samuel Popghisio that he is gunning for the presidency in 2012.

Please ODM-K, do not let brother ‘Pogs’ be another Julia Ojiambo running mate circus!

Martha Karua’s Friendly Fire: Who’s Next? Nothing Tribal About Infighting For Power

The Iron Lady is said to be holding her rivals by the balls

Ordinarily, cabinet ministers are supposed to work in tandem while implementing government policy. The Kenyan grand coalition appears completely dysfunctional. The ‘official’ pecking order has rendered the parliamentary front bench uncoordinated and virtually unworkable. Additionally, numerous scheduled cabinet meetings have been cancelled without explanation while the bloated cabinet itself has now been caught up in a web of serious corruption allegations, incidences of backstabbing and bitter infighting all of which result from the Kibaki succession. Regular readers will remember this blogger predicting a vicious and mouth-watering political contest hinged to the Kibaki succession months ago.

One player who has emerged forcefully is Martha Wangari Karua – the Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister. Impeccable sources reveal that Amos Kimunya’s exit from cabinet was the start of Martha Karua’s deliberate extermination of potential rivals on 2012. Although many people wrongly attribute the no-confidence vote in parliament to the ouster of Kimunya, Karua, probably working in cahoots with Raila Odinga, met President Kibaki on Tuesday morning with a convincing agenda that persuaded fence-sitter Kibaki to phone Kimunya and politely ask him to resign. By lunchtime the same day, Kimunya was gone!

Kimunya’s political demise was so efficiently carried out that word going round now is that Kimunya is contemplating resigning his parliamentary seat as he is finding it impossible return to parliament as a backbencher and face fellow MPs even as fresh corruption allegations on him are unearthed. Kimunya is also said to be too embarrassed to go back to Kipipiri to face his constituents whom he had promised just last Sunday that he’d rather face death than resign his cabinet post.

Kimunya was the blue-eyed boy of the president’s trusted council of elders and they have hatched a scheme to inflict equal measure revenge upon ODM by ensuring an ODM cabinet minister is humiliated the same way Kimunya was. Luckily, Kajwang who was previously thought to be an easy buy has turned out to be no soft target and his legal background as well as his long political experience as RAO’s lieutenant has paid off. The same elders are campaigning for a cabinet re-shuffle that will hand their people (read- Uhuru, Kiraitu, Saitoti and an unnamed GEMA assistant minister) powerful but less corruption prone cabinet portfolios. Ironically, these are the same individuals who just three months ago denied ODM its rightful cabinet slots during the contested portfolio balance negotiations that had threatened the fragile coalition.

So clearly the questions are; Who is/are the invisible hand(s) that is/are pushing Karua to uncharacteristically seem to be on the opposition side? Could it be that Kibaki has revealed to Karua that he had already made and deal with and endorsed Raila Odinga as his preferred successor? Yes, we all remember the last Kenya Open golf tournament and the body language there. The president also last month unusually showered praise on Raila. Again, Karua remains so far the only senior PNU minister to have visited Nyanza province as a presidential representative during the funeral of the son of Dalmas Otieno. More recently eyebrows have also been raised when Raila did not protest when the president appeared to contradict him on the Amos Kimunya probe. Anyone who has been keenly observing events unravel since Kofi Anan landed in town, cannot rubbish these coincidences.

Back to the guerilla tactics of the Justice Minister, she now has her guns trained on potential GEMA rivals for 2012 presidential race. Discerning observers of Kenyan political arena know well whom she was targeting when she boldly exclaimed that the era of political god-fathers is gone. Her blunt honesty is making powerful individuals within ODM to give her second thoughts. Apart from herself and Raila Odinga, very few other leading contenders in parliament can claim to be self-made.

Sources close to the Justice Minister intimate that her next obvious targets are Uhuru Kenyatta and Kiraitu Murungi. It appears duo’s refusal to take up the Finance docket is not borne out of nothing, but real fear for Martha Karua whom, this also blogger learnt, has managed to access highly incriminating evidence on all the PNU point-men through the numerous enquiry reports that have been gathering dust at her ministry over the years. Top amongst these are the Kroll Report, Goldenberg Report, Anglo Leasing and the Ndun’gu Land Commission Report. Uhuru’s case is not made easier owing to his recent illegal nomination of excess councilors to civic bodies countywide.

The minister has accessed a goldmine of irrefutable evidence that has made her believe that she can indeed strike a knock-out punch to any of her rivals. Her close associates have been heard boasting that she is literally holding her PNU rivals by the balls and all she needs to do is tighten her grip a little for the men to give up presidential ambitions for good.

In reality, Kiraitu Murungi is a sitting duck because of the mega-deals he made as Justice minister with Moi and his people on the non-repatriation of stolen billions public funds tracked by Kroll in off-shore accounts not to mention Kiratu’s blatant interference with John Githongo’s investigations into the biggest of them all - the Anglo Leasing scam. On the other hand, George Saitoti, one of the richest men in Kenya, is now at Karua’s mercy following renewed interest in the Goldenberg scandal arising out of the Grand Regency sale.

Admittedly, Karua knows too well that her chances of being elected the next president of Kenya are slim if not nil, but then she is making significant in-roads into being accepted by the ODM pentagon whom she prefers doing business with as opposed to ODM-K’s Kalonzo Musyoka who emerged a distant third in last year’s presidential polls. Credible but unverified reports received by this blogger, indicate that a cabinet line-up based upon the Bomas draft and featuring Martha Karua as a Deputy Prime Minister has already been drafted and is awaiting endorsement of a joint secret meeting of the higher echelons of ODM and the new NARC-K.

Observers are now wondering whether this meal Raila shared with Karua and the recent unusual declaration of support to Karua by ODM’s parliamentary group were mere coincidences or a political alliance in the making?

This is the question that even the so-called experts have yet to find an answer.

On my part I think the ODM captain, once touted as unelectable, has outsmarted state house power mandarins yet again.

STOP PRESS!!

John Njoroge Michuki, Kenya's Environment Minister, has been appointed to act as Finance Minister. The finance docket has been vacant since the resignation of Amos Kimunya last Tuesday following the Grand Regency Hotel sale scam.

At the same time, Public Works Minister Chris Obure has been appointed acting Roads Minister to replace Kipkalya Kones who died in a plane crash in Narok.

Beautiful Face of Unity of Purpose

Kenyan politicians appear to have discovered the nation’s pulse. The fidelity of their actions and speeches with the national expectation only leave one wondering and imagining the missed leaps in the face of sectarian politics so far.

You listen to Kibaki talking and for once you see the human side of the MP for Othaya. In Having all MPs read from the same OBJECTIVE script stirs up the imagination of the collective strength we have as a people. My prayer is they don’t lose the momentum and let no Lucifer crawl from the dark wood works to spoil the national broth.

Uniformity of thought can make a single step look like a milestone. Politics is an ugly animal we cannot do without as human beings. Those haranguing Kenyans to stop politicking don’t have a clue of what foundation governance provides for any shade of prosperity and development. No amount of personal wealth can provide an inch of infrastructure that networks every corner of a country. Only sound planning implemented by honest and good leadership can provide that link.

Decoys and trophies
Demanding better from our leader must not be mistaken for nagging or laziness. Leadership is a contract and we must demand that our politicians keep their side of the bargain lest they defraud us by sleeping on the job. It is cheap and uncritical to admonish Kenyans for demanding the very best of their leaders.

The new-found unity of purpose must not be left to melt once the political deal is sealed. We must continue putting more pressure on our politicians to earn their hefty pay cheque. And while at it we must remain vigilant to calculative politicians who may be scheming to dupe us with decoys while intending to run away with the trophy.

We Collectively have a unique opportunity to put Kenya on the right pedestal to sustainable development anchored on unity in diversity. Do you part and let us join the party and make it last.