That is the question political observers are asking themselves since Uhuru Kenyatta's resignation as finance minister yesterday.
Unlike the emotionally reckless William Ruto who has openly declared he will be on the presidential ballot paper, Uhuru has not made any such direct declarations and remains as guarded as ever on his immediate political future.
As he exited his luxurious red-carpeted Treasury House office yesterday, Uhuru released a statement which indicated that he "looks forward to meeting you all at the grassroots as I traverse the countryside to reassure you all that our mission to give hope to the youth of this country, our vision of seeing a peaceful Kenya and our firm resolve to transform Kenya into a modern first class economy is still on course".
While Ruto has yet to appreciate the gravity of the charges facing him at the ICC, Uhuru appears to have an understanding of how high the stakes have been raised. Power politics is not an easy game to play when one has been indicted by the International Criminal Court. And for anyone to imagine that they can be state president and deputy state president in Kenya while they attend court sessions at the Hague is taking ambition and hope beyond utopian dreams.
Many legal minds, including CIC Chairman Charles Nyachae, have argued that there is nothing legally to bar Uhuru or Ruto to run for president. Even ICC Prosecutor Ocampo has asserted that the issue of elections in Kenya is something for the Kenyans to decide. But here at Kumekucha, being the sober political analysts that we are, we believe the presidential dreams of Uhuru and Ruto have hit a brick wall. Let us examine the reality:
If an Uhuru who is already indicted by ICC cannot serve as as a mere Finance Minister of a grand coalition government - despite presidential back-up to do so - and in a constitution that is in transition, how in God's name will Uhuru be president in our constitution when it is fully functional? How will Uhuru run to be president when he is charged at the ICC with the worst criminal cases that anyone can face in this world?
Granted that the KANU Chairman has his core support among the counties populated by the Agikuyu in the former Central and Rift Valley provinces. Uhuru has also steadily gained popularity ratings on some of our dubious opinion polls and was last reported as closing in on Raila Odinga. But the fact still remains that in the new constitutional dispensation, anyone who wishes to be president must come with a lot more than his ethnic support. The bar has been raised and sadly, both Uhuru and Ruto fail in most of the basic requirements the constitution demands for presidential contenders. The Hague baggage does not help matters.
In a country that is constantly baby-sat by western powers and one that the stability of the entire horn of Africa hinges on, how will someone who is on the same list as Ugandan sadistic warlord Joseph Kony be in the running to form a government in the republic of Kenya?
Someone must be sleep walking to imagine this!
Uhuru and Ruto have only one way to go. They can only support a preferred presidential candidate, and sponsor as much parliamentary and senatorial candidates as they possibly can in 2012. Those candidate must be people they can control like puppets. And that president must be someone they can dictate to. That person is not Kalonzo Musyoka and neither is it George Saitoti. It could be either Raphael Tuju or Eugene Wamalwa, perhaps a pairing of both as candidate and running mate. The possibility of forming the next official opposition could never have been clearer.
Let us see how today's rally at Eldoret's 64 stadium turns out!
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Showing posts with label Countdown Begins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Countdown Begins. Show all posts
Friday, January 27, 2012
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Does Barack Obama’s Skin Colour Matter, Really?
My answer to the above question is that it really does. Well, this is so if the reactions and comments of an American citizen on BBC, sometime this week, are anything to go by.
He said that Americans are not foolish and are, therefore, not going to elect a black man as their president. “Etiquette alone dictates that we don’t allow a black man to move into a house which is itself called the White House,” He said, quite forcefully.
He distastefully went on to say: “If Barack Obama had a White wife, Americans would have tolerated him. But there is no way Americans will have a black woman masquerading in their White House!”
If this one American (white American, I presume) voices the prejudices of millions others out there, then Barack should brace himself for “an extremely tight and asphyxiating” fight for the White House.
But Barack sounded his answer to anyone who might try to use such tactics (such as using his “skin colour” to sway the voters) when he made his exemplary speech during the Democratic National Convention.
He said:
“If you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.”
My two cents: Please guys, look not at the colour of the skin but at the content of character (among so many other things – competence, effective promise-delivering strategies etc).
Check out some Snapshots of Michelle Obama’s Speech this Week.
He said that Americans are not foolish and are, therefore, not going to elect a black man as their president. “Etiquette alone dictates that we don’t allow a black man to move into a house which is itself called the White House,” He said, quite forcefully.
He distastefully went on to say: “If Barack Obama had a White wife, Americans would have tolerated him. But there is no way Americans will have a black woman masquerading in their White House!”
If this one American (white American, I presume) voices the prejudices of millions others out there, then Barack should brace himself for “an extremely tight and asphyxiating” fight for the White House.
But Barack sounded his answer to anyone who might try to use such tactics (such as using his “skin colour” to sway the voters) when he made his exemplary speech during the Democratic National Convention.
He said:
“If you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.”
My two cents: Please guys, look not at the colour of the skin but at the content of character (among so many other things – competence, effective promise-delivering strategies etc).
Check out some Snapshots of Michelle Obama’s Speech this Week.
Friday, May 23, 2008
By-Elections; ODM in Focus
Even as ODM holds its parliamentary group meeting at the Safari Park Hotel this morning, this blogger is informed that ODM is facing a daunting task in assuring its supporters that the party remains united and will emerge victorious following today's party nominations for the by elections.
There have been rumours of shadow-boxing in ODM and supporters fear that PNU and KANU have indeed infiltrated the ODM ranks including up to the Prime Minister's office. The anxiety peaked when ODM announced it had disbanded the National Elections Board previously headed by Justice (rtd) Richard Otieno Kwach and replaced it with a new team headed by former Rangwe MP Philip Okundi. No explanations have been forthcoming from the party why the Kwach team has had to be disposed.
Today, the public is singularly focused on ODM with all the mainstream media currently broadcasting regular updates on the on-going ODM nominations and the party's PG meeting.
As in the 2007 general elections, the ODM is once again showing political parties in Kenya why and how to conduct primaries in electing representatives to face opponents in the main elections.
Considering PNU, NARC-K, FORD-K, KADDU, etc have all intimated that they will be fielding independent candidates for these elections, it is strange that for the last one week, newspapers, TV and radio stations are only reporting on the ODM nomination exercise as it is the only political party in Kenya and its nominee will be the automatic MP.
For undisclosed reasons and not surprisingly, the ODM-K is not fielding even a single candidate in the by-elections and will instead support those of the PNU. Whereas Raila's ODM is in cabinet by right, Kalonzo's ODM-K owes cabinet positions to PNU and it is avoiding antagonistic actions that might be misinterpreted by its senior partner as a challenge to authority. Whichever way one looks at it, ODM-K MPs in cabinet are at the mercy of PNU - whatever the political subject in question! One would have expected a decision as to whether or not to field candidates to be made at a party National Delegates Congress, and certainly not at some backyard office in Nairobi as ODM-K is doing.
There have been rumours of shadow-boxing in ODM and supporters fear that PNU and KANU have indeed infiltrated the ODM ranks including up to the Prime Minister's office. The anxiety peaked when ODM announced it had disbanded the National Elections Board previously headed by Justice (rtd) Richard Otieno Kwach and replaced it with a new team headed by former Rangwe MP Philip Okundi. No explanations have been forthcoming from the party why the Kwach team has had to be disposed.
Today, the public is singularly focused on ODM with all the mainstream media currently broadcasting regular updates on the on-going ODM nominations and the party's PG meeting.
As in the 2007 general elections, the ODM is once again showing political parties in Kenya why and how to conduct primaries in electing representatives to face opponents in the main elections.
Considering PNU, NARC-K, FORD-K, KADDU, etc have all intimated that they will be fielding independent candidates for these elections, it is strange that for the last one week, newspapers, TV and radio stations are only reporting on the ODM nomination exercise as it is the only political party in Kenya and its nominee will be the automatic MP.
For undisclosed reasons and not surprisingly, the ODM-K is not fielding even a single candidate in the by-elections and will instead support those of the PNU. Whereas Raila's ODM is in cabinet by right, Kalonzo's ODM-K owes cabinet positions to PNU and it is avoiding antagonistic actions that might be misinterpreted by its senior partner as a challenge to authority. Whichever way one looks at it, ODM-K MPs in cabinet are at the mercy of PNU - whatever the political subject in question! One would have expected a decision as to whether or not to field candidates to be made at a party National Delegates Congress, and certainly not at some backyard office in Nairobi as ODM-K is doing.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Lean Cabinet and Kibaki Succession Countdown
Arguments on losers and winners following formation of the cabinet can only succeed in inflaming political emotions. The true winners in the whole charade are Kenyans in general and the press in particular. Both PNU and ODM have knowingly installed official opposition from within government. Checkmating in each ministry is the light at the end of the tunnel which can as well be that of an oncoming train.
The cabinet composition has formally launched Kibaki succession and the fight for next elections. Uhuru may have the sweetest laugh but not necessarily the longest. He may have his coat tail gracing Kibaki’s chair but his bum is not guaranteed the seat. Discounting Karua’s tantrums will be the height of political naivety. The holding thread is as thick as the current presidency. It will emerge very soon whether this marks the beginning of bitter succession wars or sounding Kanu’s death knell.
The formed cabinet have the unique opportunity to do Kenya two favours: comprehensive constitutional and land reforms. Failure to do these amounts to postponing the final national meltdown. They either chose to free Kenya from the shackles of INSTITUTIONALIZED MISGOVERNANCE or collective wash their hands with our blood. This is one fact that will either make or break one James Orengo. The guys must measure to all his reputation and name. No two ways about it.
Katiba + land or nothing
This cabinet bequeathed on Kenya by one Michael Rannenberger must serve as a transition to next elections. Given the pressure locally but particularly pointed push from without ODM had no choice but to loosen up and give in some more. While juvenile bravado will definitely smell gloating and chest thumbing, the deal is only a start and the celebration will produce a very disappointing end.
The indivisible dismembering of portfolios has give Kenya her leanest cabinet of 20 in modern history. Well, it is only lean until Kenyan version of deception hits you hard that it is 20 from each side. If maids get baptized as domestic stewards then minister for toilets can do with a rebranding in the name of sanitation. The brutal and harsh hand of politics has waved at Mungatana and his ilk. Poor Dunstan Buya couldn’t have his mouth's loyalty rewarded commensurately.
The inbuilt opposition promises a very vibrant press. Checkmating ministers and their assistants will definitely minimize if not eradicate grand corruption. On the flip side, the ultimate price will be muscle flexing and no meaningful work but official circus with competing loyalties. We haven’t seen the last card by the scoundrels yet, or have we?
The cabinet composition has formally launched Kibaki succession and the fight for next elections. Uhuru may have the sweetest laugh but not necessarily the longest. He may have his coat tail gracing Kibaki’s chair but his bum is not guaranteed the seat. Discounting Karua’s tantrums will be the height of political naivety. The holding thread is as thick as the current presidency. It will emerge very soon whether this marks the beginning of bitter succession wars or sounding Kanu’s death knell.
The formed cabinet have the unique opportunity to do Kenya two favours: comprehensive constitutional and land reforms. Failure to do these amounts to postponing the final national meltdown. They either chose to free Kenya from the shackles of INSTITUTIONALIZED MISGOVERNANCE or collective wash their hands with our blood. This is one fact that will either make or break one James Orengo. The guys must measure to all his reputation and name. No two ways about it.
Katiba + land or nothing
This cabinet bequeathed on Kenya by one Michael Rannenberger must serve as a transition to next elections. Given the pressure locally but particularly pointed push from without ODM had no choice but to loosen up and give in some more. While juvenile bravado will definitely smell gloating and chest thumbing, the deal is only a start and the celebration will produce a very disappointing end.
The indivisible dismembering of portfolios has give Kenya her leanest cabinet of 20 in modern history. Well, it is only lean until Kenyan version of deception hits you hard that it is 20 from each side. If maids get baptized as domestic stewards then minister for toilets can do with a rebranding in the name of sanitation. The brutal and harsh hand of politics has waved at Mungatana and his ilk. Poor Dunstan Buya couldn’t have his mouth's loyalty rewarded commensurately.
The inbuilt opposition promises a very vibrant press. Checkmating ministers and their assistants will definitely minimize if not eradicate grand corruption. On the flip side, the ultimate price will be muscle flexing and no meaningful work but official circus with competing loyalties. We haven’t seen the last card by the scoundrels yet, or have we?
Friday, February 15, 2008
No More Games: Mediation Enters New Phase
Kofi Annan’s press conference today may have not turned into a screaming headline but the import of his speech remained in his unspoken insinuations. The mediation talks have entered a new phase where none of the two principals have ABSOLUTELY any control of the direction or outcome it will take.
Annan’s diplospeak betrayed the underlying toughness ahead. If in doubt then just wait and see the turn of events when Condoleeza Rice jets in Nairobi early next week. The blue-eyed brains behind the throne, the village warlords and warmongers are all in for a rude shock. Their platitudes on sovereignty will be rendered totally irrelevant.
We live in a different era and woe unto those deriving plastic pleasures from cheap nationalism and patriotism clothed in sovereignty. The global community will not sit square as another country melts in their watch. In a matter of days, Kibaki’s gatekeepers and power pushers will bear the full force of unadulterated pressure both from within and without.
Rants about recolonization wont wash. The West is determined and they are coming in full force and no option spared. Forget about the empty noises about them serving multinational interests. Well, that only makes sense in times of peace and not now when things have to be sorted out first and fast. Better learn from Chad on what counts when the stakes are high.
It is crunch time people. No more games nor creating impressions of motions bereft of real movement. Songs laced with colonial hangover lyrics must be exclusively reserved for the birds. The defining week for Kenya begins next Monday. Countdown tick tock...
Annan’s diplospeak betrayed the underlying toughness ahead. If in doubt then just wait and see the turn of events when Condoleeza Rice jets in Nairobi early next week. The blue-eyed brains behind the throne, the village warlords and warmongers are all in for a rude shock. Their platitudes on sovereignty will be rendered totally irrelevant.
We live in a different era and woe unto those deriving plastic pleasures from cheap nationalism and patriotism clothed in sovereignty. The global community will not sit square as another country melts in their watch. In a matter of days, Kibaki’s gatekeepers and power pushers will bear the full force of unadulterated pressure both from within and without.
Rants about recolonization wont wash. The West is determined and they are coming in full force and no option spared. Forget about the empty noises about them serving multinational interests. Well, that only makes sense in times of peace and not now when things have to be sorted out first and fast. Better learn from Chad on what counts when the stakes are high.
It is crunch time people. No more games nor creating impressions of motions bereft of real movement. Songs laced with colonial hangover lyrics must be exclusively reserved for the birds. The defining week for Kenya begins next Monday. Countdown tick tock...
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