Somebody somewhere is very determined to push forward Kalonzo Musyoka's candidature for President. Poll after poll has put him way ahead of all other candidates. The strange thing about these polls is that they contradict what we all know about Kenyan politics.
In western countries polls like the Gallup poll have impeccable reputations, which they fiercely guard. Gallup have done such an excellent job over the years that polls are generally taken very seriously these days. The problem is that sometimes people forget that the poll that they are looking at is not a Gallup poll. Indeed it is instructive that the guys who have been churning out these controversial presidential polls tried to affiliate themselves to Gallup without the proper accreditation. Gallup would not have it and to date Steadman remains unaffiliated to Gallup. Chances are high that they are unable to match the standards required.
The biggest question mark about this latest poll is why the option of those unsure has not been included. This would reflect the real picture as my own quick sampling shows that at least 40% of the electorate are unsure of who they are going to vote for. This is understandable because ODM Kenya (no doubt the most popular party currently) has yet to name it's presidential candidate.
The other thing that makes me suspicious is the fact that surveys of this nature are horrendously expensive. So who is financing Steadman's quarterly surveys? Could it be some political grouping? This would make the most sense because the power of surveys like these ones is well known by politicians. The vote will always swing in the direction of the candidate that voters feel is most likely to win.
So the big mystery is who is behind this poll and what message are they so keen on selling to Kenyans. One message that has clearly and consistently come out of this poll is the fact that Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular opposition candidate. Much more popular than Uhuru Kenyatta and much more popular than Raila Odinga. This does not quite make sense. My quick survey puts both Raila and Uhuru ahead of Kalonzo.
It would probably help us in our attempt to answer some of these questions if we asked ourselves a simple question;
Who would stand to gain the most from Kalonzo Musyoka being the main opposition candidate?
All answers point to President Kibaki's camp. The biggest nightmare amongst the president's handlers is a Uhuru Kenyatta candidature. This would split the massive Kikuyu vote (sorry folks, Kenyans still vote along tribal lines). And this time chances are that it would be in favor of the younger Kikuyu candidate.
But there is even a more compelling reason to keep on pushing Kalonzo Musyoka's name as the most popular opposition candidate. The thinking is that any candidate wining the ODM presidential nomination, other than Raila Odinga will split ODM right down the middle. Those who lean on this kind of thinking are quick to point to the last time that Raila was seeking a presidential nomination. This was in the run up to the 1997 presidential elections. The party was Ford Kenya and Raila was running against the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa. The late former Vice President won that one, but Raila did not want to accept the results and moved on to NDP, the party which he used to stand for President. And he in fact ended up surprising everybody by coming a strong third behind Moi and Kibaki in that order.
The truth of the matter is that once Agwambo has set his sites on something, he is unstoppable, an unstoppable tractor (hence the nickname Tinga). So far Raila is the single presidential hopeful who has spent the most campaigning. Not even President Kibaki comes near. Remember the expensive DSTV ads?
Sadly it is not in the interests of the country to have a Kikuyu/Luo face off for the presidency (see the debate on the Luo versus Kikuyu prejudicial rivalry). By the grace of God this has been avoided so far and should continue to be avoided. Kenya is not yet ready for this, temperatures would run too high and any hope of having an issues-centered campaign would vanish.
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See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
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I wish to comment on a couple of things.
ReplyDelete1) There is something either very naive or intentionally misleading about the assessment of the Steadman Group's poll. Firstly, we do not have access to the particular methods used to get Kenyan's opinions (hopefully, it was truly random) and secondly, comparing the Steadman poll with the Gallup is out of place because we need to understand the scope. Kenya is slightly bigger than the state of Texas and has 34 million people. The USA has approximately 10 times more. The Gallup polls involve sampling from all fifty states and all flavors of potential voters (variables like demographics in income levels, education, ethnicity, urban/rural, etc). With Kenya, you don’t have to worry too much about income levels or ethnicity since from a survey/statistical point of view, we are homogeneous. 50% of the population lives in poverty and close to 80% in urban areas. Of necessity, the US poll is much more complicated and hence requires a lot more resources to conduct.
2) The writer eventually reveals the intent behind the message behind the initially intellectual contribution; that of promoting a particular cause. The ridiculous part of this is when at the same time, they try to make it look like they are impartial.
Intellectual discourse demands that one de-marries themselves from self-bias, a facet that is clearly foreign to the writer.
An added subjective point is that, as a Kenyan, I do not believe that we are tribalistic. We identify ourselves with what we were brought up believing, but we do not hate a person because of their background. On the contrary, in my opinion, it is the politicians that cannot get the popular vote that devise ways of separating blocks of people that are die-hard fans to do their campaigning for them.
So when we talk about issue-driven campaigns in 2007, we need to check ourselves as well and make sure that we are not influenced by issues that only matter to the person/people that we have ordained as 'our leader/s'.
Annonymous said;
ReplyDelete"So when we talk about issue-driven campaigns in 2007, we need to check ourselves as well and make sure that we are not influenced by issues that only matter to the person/people that we have ordained as 'our leader/s'."
You should be careful before making sweeping statements like this one that are totally wrong. This blog has NOT ordained any leader. If anything this blogger is seriously considering running for the presidency HIMSELF.
I know you may be referring to Raila. This blog DOES NOT Support Raila. My feeling is that it is time for a new generation of leaders and none of the leaders I ensision appears in your precious presidential poll, sir.
Interestingly the latest Steadmann poll (which followed my suggestions here LOL) proves me correct.
ReplyDeleteAnd also the fact that nobody wants to discuss about who is financing these polls which we know cost millions of shillings, makes me even more suspicious about this beloved poll of yours.
"Somebody somewhere is very determined to push forward Kalonzo Musyoka's candidature for President. Poll after poll has put him way ahead of all other candidates"
ReplyDeleteI wonder what you have to say now that the latest poll puts Raila ahead of Kalonzo. Is someone somewhere very determined to push forward Raila's candidature for President?