AG Anglo Leasing Prosecutions: A Lesson From The Devastating Steam Engine

Kenyan AG Amos Wako is some survivor. The proverbial cat with 9 lives, if you like. However it is now very clear that those extra lives are rapidly running out.

As pressure mounts for the government to prosecute some big fish Anglo-Leasing-scandal culprits, Hon Wako has suddenly found himself soaking in most of the pressure.

But before I go into Wako's current problems and where I believe they will lead, it is useful to get the background behind the current situation.

You may not like or enjoy physics, but bear with me for minute as I use this complex scientific subject to illustrate an important point about the Kibaki administration.

For many years steam was used to run trains and major industrial machinery. The concept behind steam engines is in accumulating pressure and then releasing it in a controlled manner to run your engine. The worst and most dangerous thing you can do is to accumulate the pressure for long periods without releasing it. The explosion that will inevitably result will be devastatingly damaging.

President Kibaki's way of running things is to postpone decisions for long periods of time thus accumulating the pressure in this "steam engine" called politics. This is no secret and those who have analyzed the president's management style for many years have often accurately labeled him the "fence seater."

Here is an example to illustrate this point;

When it was clear that President Kibaki was faced with rebellion within his coalition government, he delayed his decision to sack LDP members. Led by Raila "Kibaki Tosha" Odinga, they were the main rebels over the president's failure to honor the infamous memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed before the elections and which was the "glue" that held the fragile coalition government together. By delaying the inevitable, the president built up enormous and unnecessary pressure for himself so much so that when he finally acted, his government almost came crushing down with the unprecedented situation where politicians were turning down cabinet appointments.

Had he acted earlier, it would have been a lot easier to gain public support and sympathy over his decision to rubbish the MOU. LDP would have clearly looked like the "spoilers" drawing first blood in upsetting the opposition unity that had removed Kanu and President Moi from power.

A replica situation is about to play itself out with the Anglo Leasing prosecutions.

This administration has been postponing its' decision to prosecute Goldenberg and Anglo Leasing big fish. Actually decisions have been postponed again and again. Now with the general elections knocking on the door, it is clear that issues of corruption and this government's failure to prosecute the "big fish" will be a major campaign issue. So the pressure that has slowly been allowed to build up is about to explode.

You see the big names that the government is seeking to make sacrificial lambs out of are very powerful people with political and financial clout who will not just sit around and do nothing. Most are already fighting back in anticipation. The result is that we will have one hell of a fall out.

All this would have been avoided if decisions were made much earlier and decisively. As it is, even now the decisions being made at this eleventh hour over this highly sensitive matter are not decisive. One can't help feeling that this entire circus between AG Amos Wako and Anti-corruption boss, Aaron Ringera is a gimmick to buy time and delay prosecutions indefinitely.

Currently the main "pressure valve" holding all the "steam" in place is one Amos Wako. What are the chances of him surviving when the inevitable explosion happens?

You tell me.

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See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics

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