What are Kalonzo Musyoka's Options Now?

Now that it is evident that Kalonzo Musyoka will NOT be the ODM presidential candidate, chances are that he will leave the party soon after Raila Odinga is named the party's presidential candidate.

What must be understood is that Kalonzo will not dessert ODM-Kenya because of the way that Raila will be selected but it will have more to do with his pride and his misplaced belief (built over numerous Steadmann popularity poll results) that he is a better man than Raila.

It will be perhaps the most bitter pill Musyoka has ever swallowed in his long political career, considering that opinion polls for the better part of last year have always said that he was more popular than Odinga and was only second to Kibaki. One opinion poll at the beginning put him right at the top, above eve prsient Kibaki, in popularity. These polls gave Musyoka the false impression that he would easily be selected as the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate by whatever method was arrived on, although he clearly favored some sort of direct vote country-wide.

And again, during the constitution referendum, Raila said in public 'Kalonzo tosha' meaning Kalonzo was capable which made Kenyans assume that Raila could vouch for a Musyoka presidency and he would settle for the much-talked-about prime minister's post.

So, if Musyoka is to leave, where can he go? Especially if you put into consideration the fact that he does not have the cash to finance his own presidential campaign and neither does he have enough super rich friends in Kenya to assist him, like some of the other candidates. But let's assume for a moment that Musyoka somehow finds the cash and decides to go it alone with his own party—which would most probably be the Rainbow Alliance Party (RAP), an outfit registered by his alter ego, one Dee Kivuva a former police officer sacked from the general service unit several years ago for fraud.

He will probably secure the Kamba vote, though not as a block as his support from the community was previously powered by the fact he would be the ODM-Kenya candidate whose presidential aspirant had the biggest chances of dethroning Kibaki.

Another factor that may cause Kalonzo to write his own political obituary on leaving ODM is the simple fact that he will leave alone as he does not have the capacity and ability to woo other big wigs in the movement to join him in abandoning it. In other words, Musyoka's exit from ODM will barely affect the party's chances of dethroning Kibaki and will probably strengthen it as most of the power jostling in the party has always been between Kalonzo and Raila supporters. This will cease with Kalonzo out of the way.

Kalonzo's other option is to join Narc-Kenya who will probably not treat him as a big catch but will accommodate him all the same for propaganda purposes against ODM in exchange for an obscure position in the next government if they win.

In other words, Kalonzo's option on leaving ODM are extremely limited and if he thinks twice and gets good advice, he is better off swallowing his pride and accepting the vice president post within ODM. That is by far his best bet.

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