Former President Moi And President Kibaki: Bossom buddies now or political realists?
Prepare For A Kibaki/Moi Alliance That Will Carry The 2007 Elections
For months now I have been quietly predicting it at this blog (see earlier posts) but even I was not prepared for the events of the last week or so where a casual visitor to the country would be forgiven for thinking that Moi was still president.
But in all the analysis that has followed my own in this blog (technology always makes you appear to be faster), there is one sad fact that everybody has missed. And that is the fact that Moi's return means a return to full fledged tribal politics. That is Moi's specialty and it is what he understands best and what kept him in power for 24 years despite efforts by super powers and some very powerful folks to get him out.
Take careful note of the people the former President was meeting in his meetings in Isiolo and the environs. Mostly tribal elders and clan leaders. Although it is also true that peace has been elusive in this area of Kenya because of the tribal and clan groupings, make no mistake about it, this is Moi politics and he would have done exactly the same in any other area.
It is interesting that despite strong denials by both camps all analysts agree that Moi's come back has the full blessings of the Kibaki administration. Which means that instructions on the ground will be for all possible assistance to be given to ensure a KANU victory.
Now I know you may be getting a little confused. Why should the Kibaki administration want Kanu to win when their party Narc Kenya is participating in the same elections?
The answer is simple. President Kibaki does not have a political party. You see to win the presidency, one requires grass root support. Kibaki got it in 2002 through the Narc coalition, which no longer exists. It is therefore in the presidents' best interests to have a stronger Kanu which he can then form an alliance with using Narc Kenya and end up romping into victory almost effortlessly.
A while back I said in this blog that Moi is the single most serious threat to the emergence of a new younger generation to take over leadership in Kenya. That "threat" has come to pass with Moi's re-entry into active politics and it simply means that the younger folks will have to wait for a little longer to make their mark. The coming election will be a Kibaki/Moi affair.
This is how it will work out.
Narc Kenya will continue with aggressive recruitment and marketing countrywide. But the truth is that they already know where their support is going to come from. And so does everybody else. Just look at where the leading lights come from but leave out Luo Nyanza and most of the Coast province.
Kanu will also strengthen its' position with the full secret backing of government. Then at the last minute the two will come together in a marriage of convenience and easily win the general elections. I am not a pessimist but Kenyans will have to wait for a little longer for the second liberation to fully come to pass.
Elections are all about arithmetic which Moi, a former teacher is very good at. More so tribal arithmetic. The Kibaki/Moi partnership will deliver enough numbers to be unbeatable. Moi will deliver most of the Rift Valley and huge chunks of the arid and semi arid regions which he knows better than anybody else. All indications are that when the ODM fallout is complete, Kalonzo Musyoka will be in the Moi camp. That means that most of the Akamba people (where Kalonzo hails from will) vote for the Kibaki/Moi camp. The Akamba people have proved in recent elections that they are the swing state in Kenyan politics, meaning that whichever side they fall on, will win the elections.
But the arithmetic this time round is such that the Kibaki/Moi camp does not need the Kamba vote to win. In the last elections and in the recent referendum, the Kikuyu voted without their thinking caps. They used their tribal instincts. There is no reason why they will not do the same in 2007. Which means that with Uhuru Kenyatta (who hails from Kiambu, the other major Kikuyu stronghold, other than Nyeri) on Moi's side, most of the Kikuyu vote will go to this alliance.
The opposition under the de facto leadership of Raila Odinga will mostly consist of Luo Nyanza and possibly Nairobi. In fact chances are high that everybody will go it alone and we will have a very crowded field of presidential candidates. Which will include the likes of Ford Kenya's Musikari Kombo. The strategy here is to win enough support to be a viable coalition partner in the next government. This suits the Kibaki/Moi alliance perfectly.
The tricky part is Uhuru Kenyatta's position as Kanu's presidential flag bearer. In the coming Narc Kenya/Kanu alliance, Kanu will present it's presidential flag bearer as President Kibaki's running mate and Vice President in the new government. It is highly unlikely that that candidate will be Uhuru Kenyatta. He will have to step down for somebody else. Whoever that person is going to be, they will not be from the Kikuyu tribe. I hereby present 3 names as possibles. Kalonzo Musyoka, Gideon Moi, William Ruto.
No why would a person as ambitious as Mr Musyoka settle for VP? Good question and here is the answer. The next VP in Kenya is going to be the most powerful in the history of the country because they will be the partner representing the largest political party in the country – Kanu. The next VP will pretty much call the shots because when push comes to shove, all they will have to do is threaten the President with mass resignations.
Next question: But Kalonzo Musyoka is not in Kanu at the moment?
The answer: The key word here is "… at the moment." Find out where Mr Musyoka has been doing most of his campaigns for the presidency. In the Rift Valley of course, which is Kanu country. He can get back into Kanu long before you can finish saying "Daniel Moi".
Next question: I don't see Uhuru accepting to step down for somebody else after all the hard work he has put in.
Answer: You fail to see the whole point of this Kibaki/Moi alliance. It is to save and preserve old (corrupt) money in Kenya. Mr Kenyatta was educated on corrupt money and grabbed land and continues to enjoy his enviable lifestyle based on that money. If the Kibaki/Moi alliance loses, he loses his family inheritance. There is really no decision to agonize over here.
I doubt kenyans will fall for these same old tricks...this will be a repeat of the Uhuru debacle.
ReplyDeleteYou take a very simplistic view of the kenyan political arena ...what you call tribalism i would call regionalism which is not a bad thing. even the states the southern states are red and the coasts are blue states.
ReplyDeleteThe marriage of kanu and narc is not a foregone conclusion. Kibaki would need the new constitution to honor all the vp posts he has been promising everyone.
The case of kale/kyuk relationship is interesting because kales are stronger "mathematcally' than kyuks so who would bow for whom is an open question.
If there is one thing that can bring kenyans together it would be to kick Kibaki out...these kinds of shenanaigans obviously do not help him. He would be far better off if he fought corruption and worked harder to develop and grow the economy.
With every election, Kenyans are learning HOW to use the secret weapon of the ballot. Times change.
Alexcia,
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly how Moi managed to remain in power for 24 years. You and I are sophisticated and we can see through these things but the vast majority of the Kenyan voters will never understand this post here or what the hell is going on. Those guys in Isiolo and large tracts of Kenya (millions of voters) understand only one thing, that they are hungrier now than when Moi was in power.
The reason Kibaki won in 2002 was simply because Raila recruited all the key tribal chiefs and they went to the villages and briefed the folks.
This is also the huge difference between Kibaki and Moi. Moi appeals to the small hungry man and understands them better than you or I or Kibaki ever will. Sitting infront of our PCS in some airconditioned office somewhere in the global village we can alanlyze all we like but it will never change the reality on the ground.
That's why in my analysis I said Nairobi will not support a Kibaki re-election (whatever tribes you are talking about).
By the way this blog has never changed its' radical stance for a revolution in Kenya bringing in a new generation of younger leaders born at independence into power, as the only way out of our political crisis.
Sadly my dear, you are about to get a lesson in Kenyan realpolitik.
P.S. I think the best way to start understanding the Kenyan voter is to go hungry for a day or two. Believe me, your perception changes completely. The really dangerous thing in Kenya today is that there are too many people going hungry (even in the big cities).
By the way no offence intended but most of us sitting infront of PCs in comfortable air condition apartments reading and writing this blog are who we are because of our good education and background... paid for by the same corruption money that Kibaki and Moi are out to protect.
ReplyDeleteSad, but TRUE.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteThere is a logic to how the village folk vote. And believe you me they are more passionate, more devoted, more ruthless than any urbanite- educated or not.
Their logic is not simplistic or cheap...and I also agree with you that Kibaki is no Moi. Moi was the MAIN MAN (leader) of KADU for a generation before he bacame VP.
The question for me come '08 is what kyuks ( and indeed the Luos) will do with their vote. Will they accept ( and prepare) the passage of kyuk hegemony willingly or not?
Moi can only go seeking kyuk votes...not giving kale votes.
What we kenyans need to do is choose a new generation of people who had nothing to do with this old guards. This generation will have to be more patriotic than tribalistic or else we ll never come out of our rut. the kibakis, railas, musyokas, kenyattas and mois are all the same people just in different clothes. we need to forget past woes and start by building our country - let the thieves keep the money, which we ll make them pay in other ways.forgive and start afresh now.
ReplyDelete