Now that it is evident that Kalonzo Musyoka will NOT be the ODM presidential candidate, chances are that he will leave the party soon after Raila Odinga is named the party's presidential candidate.
What must be understood is that Kalonzo will not dessert ODM-Kenya because of the way that Raila will be selected but it will have more to do with his pride and his misplaced belief (built over numerous Steadmann popularity poll results) that he is a better man than Raila.
It will be perhaps the most bitter pill Musyoka has ever swallowed in his long political career, considering that opinion polls for the better part of last year have always said that he was more popular than Odinga and was only second to Kibaki. One opinion poll at the beginning put him right at the top, above eve prsient Kibaki, in popularity. These polls gave Musyoka the false impression that he would easily be selected as the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate by whatever method was arrived on, although he clearly favored some sort of direct vote country-wide.
And again, during the constitution referendum, Raila said in public 'Kalonzo tosha' meaning Kalonzo was capable which made Kenyans assume that Raila could vouch for a Musyoka presidency and he would settle for the much-talked-about prime minister's post.
So, if Musyoka is to leave, where can he go? Especially if you put into consideration the fact that he does not have the cash to finance his own presidential campaign and neither does he have enough super rich friends in Kenya to assist him, like some of the other candidates. But let's assume for a moment that Musyoka somehow finds the cash and decides to go it alone with his own party—which would most probably be the Rainbow Alliance Party (RAP), an outfit registered by his alter ego, one Dee Kivuva a former police officer sacked from the general service unit several years ago for fraud.
He will probably secure the Kamba vote, though not as a block as his support from the community was previously powered by the fact he would be the ODM-Kenya candidate whose presidential aspirant had the biggest chances of dethroning Kibaki.
Another factor that may cause Kalonzo to write his own political obituary on leaving ODM is the simple fact that he will leave alone as he does not have the capacity and ability to woo other big wigs in the movement to join him in abandoning it. In other words, Musyoka's exit from ODM will barely affect the party's chances of dethroning Kibaki and will probably strengthen it as most of the power jostling in the party has always been between Kalonzo and Raila supporters. This will cease with Kalonzo out of the way.
Kalonzo's other option is to join Narc-Kenya who will probably not treat him as a big catch but will accommodate him all the same for propaganda purposes against ODM in exchange for an obscure position in the next government if they win.
In other words, Kalonzo's option on leaving ODM are extremely limited and if he thinks twice and gets good advice, he is better off swallowing his pride and accepting the vice president post within ODM. That is by far his best bet.
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ReplyDeleteI don't remember Raila saying "Kalonzo Tosha". I don't have the facts, so I would appreciate if you could give me (and all the readers of this blog) the exact place, date and time when this happened. As I indicated here 2 days ago, Raila made Kalonzo believe that he was "Tosha" but he has never said so in public. Even Kajwang O (and even I) believed that Kalonzo would be Raila's choice for presidency. Why do you think all that changed after the Referendum? Because, Raila believes Kalonzo will just be another Kibaki. He will trash away any MOU once in State House. But I agree with you that Kalonzo will have dug his own political grave by leaving ODM. He'll have writen his political orbituary!!
its interesting that some of you think ODM with Raila as the presidency will actually carry an electio in Kenya. I think you have never been so mistaken. Raila is just a sychophant with no real value he can add to this country. What value has he added in Nyanza let alone the rest of the country? Does he even have a vision for this country? He is just like George Bush a son who wants to be president coz his dad never did. If he ever becomes President that would be a waste of a country like Kenya. God help us please
ReplyDeleteShould Kalonzo choose to remain and support the Raila candidature that will be a difinite last nail on the coffin for some Kikuyus. I pray that Kalonzo remains strong enough and stays put in ODM. Raila can be limited to one term so that Kalonzo runs in 2012. For one Raila is a revolutionalist and not a sycophant. I need to see Kenya being led by Raila. Guys come on and let us vote out Corruption, Tribalism and Poverty out.
ReplyDeleteDid u say Kalonzo should always be around and support Raila? This will happen in your dreams and imaginations. How do u support your political junior? People forget that Kibaki was supported by everyone else because he had more experience than all of them, didnt have a single skeleton in his cabinet,n above all he was electable unlike some people who can only be voted for in their tribesmen. This is exactly the case in Odm. Kalonzo is a more experienced leader than Raila,more sobre, cleaner (corruption wise),electable across the board,and of course more popular. Who the crap do u think will vote for Raila? We are fully behind Kalonzo but if he dares make that mistake then we will lynch him,if I may use Gumo's words. This is not being selfish.I have no problem with Uhuru or Ojiambo but everyone else there should know that we are not that foolish. U can fool the Luos but u cannot fool the other Kenyans. We are even ready to lose the elections to Kibaki if that is what it takes to avoid being led by dangerosly corrupt crooks(read Raila and Ruto)
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, you are an interesting character no wonder you want to remain anonymous. Just wondered how you objectively reached the conclusion that; kalonzo is more experienced than others, is electable across board, we are fully behind kalonzo,luos are fools etc.
ReplyDeleteStop being emotive and being driven by a hidden agenda. i dont want to say more to you, not worth it.
Anyway as the analysis indicates, his options are limited and as times goes by will find himself btwn a rock and a hard place.
But dont rule him out yet, the likely scenerio to emerge is that kalonzo will leave ODM and most likely followed by uhuru.
I agree with u Mr. John Maina (if that is to real name) that my assertions that Kalonzo is electable across board may or may not be very authentic. But dont you think this posturing by some people is dangerous to ODM? Tell me who is making the decisions in odm. Do Kalonzo, Ojiambo, Uhuru, Nazlin Omar ever get a chance to be heard. When Kalonzo stands up n says that they are not children to be led without consultation he becomes a traitor. Then in my opinion he is a very much needed traitor. Honestly tell me if Chelsea will play Man utd in a match officiated by Bobby Charlton , Roy Keane,Wayne Rooney or some other fellow with an inclination. That is the point we putting across: Stop accusing us of waiting to be declared tosha. We want none of that. We are asking for FAIR competition for heavens sake. If Raila Odinga is as popular as u pple want us 2 blv, why the fuck is he always playing dirty? I repeat this the hundredth time that it would be better if Kibaki to win than to Have Raila imposed on us. Even if Kalonzo were to step down for Raila, he cant win, The man just cant win a presidential election.
ReplyDeleteThis was the case in 1992. We lost the election and everybody balmed Matiba for not supporting Jaramogi, but why the hell was he expected to back him when he was more popular. It was the wish of Kenyans 2 b led by Matiba n not Jaramogi no matter how convincing his reasons for wanting so much to be president were. The same scenario is playing out again. The strongest candidate should be allowed to run on the oppposition ticket. If that doesnt happen then Kalonzo is right to say everybody should enter the frail and watch as Kibaki romps home.