Opinion polls confirm that Kenyans have NOT been fooled...

...By mostly fat rich burping men telling hungry Kenyans that the draft constitution is BAD

I must admit that in the last two weeks or so it has really looked like the No camp has gained enormous ground over the Yes brigade. Indeed this is exactly what the No folks wanted Kenyans to think.

Fortunately opinion polls by Synorate and Infotrak released earlier today have brought the reality home. The research firms say that the Ayes have it by 58% and 65% respectively. Statisticians worry that the difference of 7% in the results of the two pollsters is too huge. I believe it has a lot to do with the percentage of rural versus urban respondents (which was different for the two companies). Still it is clear that Kenyans have made up their minds and we seem headed for a landslide victory for YES (as predicted here in Kumekucha months ago when I did my own survey which gave Yes a 75% victory.)

Somebody once said that it is impossible to stop an idea whose time has come. This is something retired President Moi may not realize even now in his deep frustration even as he continues with his very spirited attempt to halt the new document dead on its’ tracks.

But in retrospect the tell tale signs have been there all along that all was not well with the nay sayers. The NO team has clearly failed to penetrate the psyche of most Kenyan voters wary of a constitution that has helped bring so much suffering to ordinary Kenyans by among other things, promoting impunity. Even with the numerous pack of lies peddled by the men and women in red, including the one Ruto keeps repeating to the effect that Kenyans should vote No now and then the document will be quickly sent back to parliament and worked on again and another referendum will be held in November this year for it to be passed. Very funny Bwana Ruto when you tell the people this with a straight face. The truth is that if Kenyans reject the current draft, it will take a very long while for another one to be put together.

The latest from the hat of ”No” magicians is that under the proposed constitution, both houses will have over 400 elected members all earning the incredible salaries that MPs are currently earning. Clearly an attempt to play on the emotions of Kenyans after the recent salary increment MPs awarded themselves. But this one like many of the others has failed to work or to provoke any public emotions.

Still I feel uneasy and will not rest easy until the results of the August 4th Referendum have been announced. One of the reasons for my unease is the desperation with which those who own Kenya feel at the moment. Desperate people do desperate things. Make no mistake about it, these people will stop at nothing to halt the enactment of a new constitution.

Mercifully using bombs to kill innocent Kenyans is no longer an option. Not only did the move badly backfire but the government is very serious about gathering enough evidence to prosecute those behind it. The intelligence community of course has a pretty good idea of who the culprits are but then even our current bad constitution says that one can only be punished after being proven guilty in a court of law. Courts naturally require lots of evidence to return a guilty verdict and sadly it is extremely difficult to gather evidence to successfully prosecute these kinds of cowardly crimes involving the killing of numerous innocent Kenyans, including children. But it seems that threats are being used to great effect. As you read this some IDPs are trickling back to camps and urban areas in the Rift Valley after being threatened that violence will erupt again after the referendum.

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