No camp in crisis

New Kumekucha survey shows 85% victory for YES

The press have in recent days referred to President Kibaki as “the unusually active President Kibaki” when pointing out the numerous meetings the president is holding countrywide to drum up support for the proposed constitution. With his "twin brother" Raila incapacitated and recovering from surgery it seems that Kibaki has taken full charge of the YES team with surprisingly devastating results.

The writing is clearly on the wall. The NO brigade is desperately retreating but can hardly find any cover even as the YES side moves in for the kill.
Martha Karua (Yes) and William Ruto (No): Kenyans will need to ask themselves a simple question. The current draft was mainly the result of a compromise between Karua and Ruto at the Naivasha retreat. Why then did Ruto suddenly turn round and oppose the very compromise document that has his thumbprints all over?

Interestingly the only tiny pockets of resistance standing in the way of an absolute YES whitewash on August 4th look like they can be swayed at the very last minute. Top on the list is Meru. NO crusaders have always been warmly received in the area and it looked like a NO stronghold. But now that the president is so actively campaigning and expected in the area soon, things look a lot different. For starters Meru has always consistently voted Kibaki even when it has not been in their best interests to do so. Meaning that a simple plea from the president could turn the tide completely in favour of the YES side.

The other area that has received frequent NO visits is Ukambani where local MPs have cleverly positioned the proposed constitution as a Kibaki document that must be defeated to frustrate the president further. That worked pretty well at the beginning until it dawned on the Kamba people that they cannot stick with a constitution under which thye have been regular beggars for food handouts despite the fact that they usually work so hard on their shambas. That coupled with door to door campaigns by the women leaders in the region including Charity Ngilu and Kathiani legislator Wavinya Ndeti has dramatically changed the situation in two short weeks.

Even William Ruto’s own Kalenjin backyard looks extremely shaky just now.

Actually what has happened is that it has dawned on Kenyans all over the country (thanks to some very positive press in favour of YES) that voting NO would be a victory for impunity. Whatever the so-called contentious issues are the new constitution is a lot better for Kenyans now than the current document. A document which former legislator Joseph Kamotho describes so aptly when he says; This is not a constitution, it is just a guideline.” Guideline for impunity if you ask me.

And so I take this opportunity to announce that my last survey on the proposed constitution across the entire country has forced me to adjust my prediction for the outcome of the referendum from a 75% victory for YES to an 85% landslide victory. In other words 85% of those who vote on August 4th will vote YES.

Those who own Kenya have already sensed defeat and are fully aware of the sweeping changes that will blow across the country with the passing of the new constitution. There is massive panic selling of land countrywide and prices are coming down dramatically. And as stated in my earlier post, the options for the evil NO brigade who organized the Uhuru Park bombings are extremely few (I dare say non-existent).

I look forward to the new Kenya. To all those dear Kenyans who died and suffered (including yours truly who suffered under Moi’s secret police); It was not all in vain after all.

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