Narc Kenya are behaving in the sort of cocky manner that causes people to lose elections. Not satisfied with the fact that they have announced their presidential candidate, President Kibaki, they are now on the verge of naming his running mate.
All this is being done a full 11 months before the polls. A better strategy would have been to at least wait until ODM announce their presidential candidate and then name President Kibaki's running mate based on who the ODM flag bearer will be.
Incidentally for the first time in the history of Kenya, the running mate to any of the presidential candidates is going to be a critical decisive factor in deciding the outcome of the elections. This did not quite happen in 2002 because of the strategy adopted by Narc of constituting a summit that had political heavyweights from all over the country. Even if ODM adopts the same strategy this time around, in Narc Kenya, their naming of Kibaki's running mate will decide the election.
A careful analysis of the situation reveals that President Kibaki's running mate can only come from two possible provinces. Namely Western or Rift Valley. However chances are that they will be from Western. In spite of the close working relationship between President Kibaki and former President Moi, their strategy will most probably be for them to go into the elections in separate parties and Moi's intention is for his Kanu faction to sweep Rift Valley, a province that Moi knows like the back of his hand. Unfortunately the former president does not seem to realize that this is going to be virtually impossible this time around.
All the other provinces will have minimal impact. Central is the President's province and it does not make sense to name a running mate from his home turf. Nyanza is out because of Raila Odinga. North Eastern does not have the necessary numbers (there are approximately 200,000 voters registered in the whole province). Coast is too volatile currently and Eastern has Kalonzo Musyoka. A VP from Nairobi would offer minimal political mileage for the president as it appears to be split between ODM and Narc Kenya, although early indications seem to shockingly suggest that a sizeable number of the Kikuyu vote in this cosmopolitan province will go to ODM, if elections were to be held today.
Chris, I agree that the VP candidate will be from either Western or Rift Valley. I see Tuju and Saitoti as strong candidates.
ReplyDeleteI have to call you out however on this remark
"early indications seem to shockingly suggest that a sizeable number of the Kikuyu vote in this cosmopolitan province will go to ODM"
Which early indications? It is too early to judge where tribal biases will align but I can guarantee you this much, as long as ODM does not make Uhuru a visible leader they will for sure lose a potentially good size of the Kikuyu vote.
It is not right but tribal politics still dictate the outcome of Kenyan elections.
“Kenyan leadership in the past 5 years has significantly surpassed a tribal align as a prospect of this country. It’s always worth to be sincere that the impending polls will be greatly indomitable to regional cast of the consenter. Watch out as the ODM-K victoriously come in!!”,says Saa Muli
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