Where Is Flight KQ 507?

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(see our breaking news story about this Kenya Airways plane crash in Cameroon last night).

There is something about Abidjan airport in Ivory Coast) and Kenya Airways. In the entire history of this very popular African airline (since inception in 1977 from the ashes of the East African Community owned East African Airways) that is today probably the busiest over African skies, it has had only two crashes. Both have been in the last 7 years and both have closely involved the Abidjan airport.
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Also published today

Why it is so difficult to find KQ 507 even with all the modern hi-tech technology

Quip of the day;
If you are looking for perfect safety, you will do well to sit on a fence and watch the birds; but if you really wish to learn, you must mount a machine and become acquainted with its tricks by actual trial.
— Wilbur Wright (co-inventor of mechanized flight), from an address to the Western Society of Engineers in Chicago, 18 September 1901.
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In January 2000 a KQ flight from the Abidjan airport never fully took off and plunged into the Atlantic ocean killing all but 10 of the 179 persons aboard (it was mostly good swimmers who survived because rescuers arrived a full 2 hours later). Coincidentally several Kenyans whom I knew well were on that flight, including a close friend, John Mugo (a non-swimmer who feared water as I learnt during a trip to Mombasa many years before the Abidjan crash), then Kenya Airways country manager in Nigeria and husband to widowed high court lady Justice Mary Mugo.

Last night a KQ flight that had landed at Douala airport, Cameroon after arriving from Abidjan delayed take off for over one hour because of bad weather. Finally the pilots made a decision to take off. Approximately 5 minutes later, the plane disappeared from radar. This usually means that the plane has broken up in mid air or crashed. As I write this, remains of that flight are yet to be found. I am praying for some miracle that will shock the world but the reality is that the chances of finding any survivors now are virtually nil. Another search for a similar plane involved in a similar accident took 10 days before any signs of the wreckage could be found. This was the Adam Air Boeing 737-400 headed from Surabaya in Central Java to Manado in northern Sulawesi when it vanished in bad weather on New Year's Day this year. The plane made no distress call, although the pilot had reported concerns over the weather. In this case fishermen found bits and pieces of the plane on the beach, including the body of a woman.

KQ 507 had only 9 Kenyans on board. The majority of passengers were from Cameroon (35) India (15), South Africa (7) and 6 each from China, Cote 'd Voire, Nigeria and Britain. Most of the other 17 nationalities represented from both Africa and the West were mostly 1 person from each country. This gives you a pretty good idea of how KQ has grown to be a trusted and reliable airline to persons from literally every corner of the globe.

Relatives of some of the passengers, mainly Cameroonians are said to have flocked at the Douala airport early this morning when the news first broke and were weeping and screaming uncontrollably. Security forces, believed to be mainly Cameroon military officers are said to have handled them very brutally attempting to evict them out of the airport where they had gone in a bid to get information over what had happened. There must have been some complaints that reached higher authorities in the country because later in the day, the same security people were said to be handling the concerned family members and friends of passengers in the ill-fated KQ 507 with much more understanding and empathy.

Kenyan transport minister Ali Makwere who was in Mombasa earlier today (no doubt involved in some Naca-Kenya campaign activities) hurriedly flew back to Nairobi and was at a well-attended press briefing at 3 pm where it was announced that he would be leading a high powered Kenya government delegation to Cameroon to help with the search and rescue and other logistical efforts. Their KQ flight will jet off at 7 am (Kenyan time). The press briefing was addressed by both KQ CEO Titus Naikuni and Transport Minister Ali Chirau Makwere.


So What Could Have Happened To KQ 507?
Those who have flown the 737-800 say that it is a huge and very comfortable airplane because of the added legroom over the earlier 737s. The 737 family is the favored workhorse of commercial carriers the world over although a few unexplained accidents have taken place involving the airline. But this is normal, especially when airplanes are still relatively new and being broken into the market. The 737-800, which is the model that disappeared over Cameroon last night, is the newest in the 737 family.

Officials at Kenya Airways are very tight lipped about this incident but based on the little evidence gathered so far, we can try and piece together the evidence and arrive at some possibilities over what may have happened to KQ 507.

We know that take off was delayed for over one hour because of bad weather, but finally the plane took off. We also know that barely 5 minutes after take off, the plane disappeared from radar.

We also know that the most dangerous times for an airplane is during take off and landing and the vast majority of accidents happened then. It is therefore safe to conclude that KQ 507 never completed take off and never climbed to cruising altitude. Meaning that the bad weather is very suspect in this particular case. Bad weather means heavy rain that limited visibility and heavy strong winds, which could affect a big heavy jet such as this one during take off. Mechanical failure is highly unlikely because the plane was only 6 months old.

Late this afternoon Kenya Airways said that the search had shifted to another area between the towns of Lolodorf and Ebolowa where there were reports that late last nigh inhabitants heard a very loud explosion. If this report is accurate then it would confirm what I have said above. The loud bang would be the aircraft hitting the ground. Usually an aircraft of this size causes a fairly loud explosion.
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Was flight KQ 507 brought down?
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So why would a pilot want to take off in bad weather? Actually pilots do this every day after taking into consideration all factors including safety mechanisms in the plane that assist take off and operation during bad weather that would even include heavy snow. Incidentally Kenyan pilots have a reputation for being especially good at landing jets in snowy and icy conditions despite the fact that their native country never experiences that type of weather.

Many times every day, pilots achieve safe flight in bad weather and so it is unfair to point fingers in the very few one in a million cases when something goes wrong, like it obviously did last night. It is like asking your car driver why they decided to drive the children home in heavy rain and slippery roads and you do so only after an accident has happened that hurt your children.


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