Raila Odinga's Ideal Vice Presidential Running Mate

Now that it is almost certain that Raila Odinga will be the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate, the next important question is who will be his running mate or better still, his vice president?

The ideal candidate is Kalonzo Musyoka but due to the rivalry and power jostling the two have undergone while chasing the top seat in the party, it is likely that Musyoka will leave ODM in a huff after Raila is declared the presidential candidate. Kalonzo's exit will have more to do with pride than the way Raila was arrived upon to be the party's torchbearer.

William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta will hardly be valuable as running mates as they both can not deliver the block vote from their community due to other strong rival politicians from their home areas who also command a sizeable following. These are former president Moi amongst the Kalenjin and president Mwai Kibaki amongst the Kikuyu, respectively.

Betting on Musalia Mudavadi is even worse as he is only assured of the support of the tiny Maragoli sub-tribe of the luhya where he hails from. The Luhya are the most divided community in Kenya and it is no surprise that they have the highest number of presidential aspirants at four. They are Musalia, Cyrus YK92 Jirongo, Julia Ojiambo (who will now step down in favor of Raila in ODM) and Musikari Kombo.

There is also the option of Raila opting for a woman Vice president in Julia Ojiambo which could make history but sadly, is unlikely to produce much in terms of added value in number of votes. Apart from the fact that the vast majority of Kenyan voters in the village tend to look down on women candidates (this is very sad, but the reality) Julia hails from the Luhya community which has enjoyed the Vice presidency more than any other tribe in the history of Kenya. The community is now keen for the presidency and any vice presidential candidate who is a Luhya is bound to have very minimal impact in the community.

This leaves Najib Balala who has the advantage of coming from the coast, a region that has never tasted the vice presidency yet have a sizeable chunk of votes which are more often than not scattered.

Considering that Raila himself has a big following in the coast province, it could be prudent to select Balala as his running mate in a bid that could secure him a block vote from the coast and destroy President Kibaki's well laid plans in Momabasa.

Balala may not be that popular or famous in coast province at the moment but his appointment as Raila's number two could change his fortunes overnight and even scare away his bitter rival for the Mvita parliamentary seat, Ali Taib who is a former Mombasa mayor. Balala is also a former Mayor of Kenya's second largest city.

Being of Arab origin, Balala will find himself facing a tough ride if he fully comes out to the limelight especially from the indigenous coastals who detest Arabs, the Mvita MP will have to toughen his stomach from the deluge of verbal and written insults that could come his way. However, the fact that Balala is a wealthy man by Kenyan standards should augur well for him as he will be capable of assisting the ODM Kenya campaign machinery in a big way not to mention his multi-millionare Arab friends whom he will easily convince to chip in to the party's campaign kitty.

And again, the Muslim community who are annoyed with the Kibaki government, which they accuse of harassment on the pretext of fighting terrorism, will vote as a block for ODM if Balala is Odinga's running mate.

It is because of these many reasons that Raila's best bet for vice president is the soft spoken Mvita MP who will be completing his first term in parliament at the end of this year. It will be remembered that in 2002 he caused one of the biggest poll upsets by flooring the then Kanu's coast kingpin Sharif Nassir wom many considered invincible.

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