The day it looked like the end of the road for Ruto

 With the election just around the corner, it's time to reflect on some key figures in Kenya’s political landscape, and one of the most significant is William Ruto. He has been in the news recently, especially after an attack at his home that remains shrouded in mystery. If you check my earlier recording, I tried to dig into this using some insider information and revealed a few things. You can find it on my YouTube channel and I’ll add a link at the end of this video for you to explore.

But the big question is: What’s next for William Ruto?

I must admit, I’ve written Ruto off politically several times, only for him to surprise everyone. The first time was in the run-up to the 2007 election when many, including myself, thought Daniel arap Moi would defeat him. Ruto defied expectations and helped his ally Raila Odinga. I also wrote him off after the fallout in ODM following the 2007 elections. But here we are again, and this time, it seems Ruto is between a rock and a hard place. Let’s examine two possible scenarios.

First, assuming Ruto stays as the Deputy President, constitutionally, the President cannot remove his deputy. The process to do so is incredibly long and practically impossible. However, Ruto faces major challenges. He already has problems with a section of Mount Kenya politicians who are preparing for the 2022 elections, and it's clear that they don't trust him. One member of the so-called “Club 1999” even mentioned that close allies of the President have said that if the President is re-elected, corruption must be addressed, and it won’t be business as usual for William Ruto. The implication here is that corruption linked to the Deputy President could be tackled, which adds to his already growing problems within the party.

If Ruto’s influence within Jubilee continues to decline, as it has over the past year, it would be hard to see him maintaining his power and influence, especially with analysts doubting his chances of ascending to the presidency. Now, let’s consider the second scenario: what if Jubilee loses the election? Ruto would face even more challenges, as a loss would likely signal the end of his influence within the party, and he would be left without much of a political base.

On the flip side, Ruto has always seemed to thrive when cornered. In 2013, with the ICC case hanging over him and numerous local cases, many believed he was finished. Yet, he managed to pull a political rabbit out of the hat and became the Deputy President. Those hoping he can reinvent himself again might be holding onto the belief that he’ll do the same this time, but the question remains: will Kenya accept a "new" Ruto after this election, no matter the outcome?

Ruto’s base in Rift Valley is crucial to his political survival, but he has many enemies there now. Though he's a wealthy man who can use his resources to rebuild, politically, his future seems uncertain. Regardless of whether Jubilee wins or loses, William Ruto faces a very difficult road ahead. That’s my perspective; I’d love to hear yours, as we live in a free country.