Putin declares Russia could launch nuclear strike in response to convention attack

 

 Ukraine Strikes Russian Territory After U.S. Authorizes Long-Range Missile Use

In a significant escalation of the ongoing conflict, Ukraine launched an attack on a target within Russia’s recognized territorial borders using American-supplied long-range missiles. This action, confirmed by both Moscow and Washington, follows the recent U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use such weapons against Russian territory. The timing of this policy shift is critical, as the Biden administration prepares to transition to a Trump presidency in January.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the strike targeted the Bryansk region earlier today, warning that Moscow would "react accordingly." The development comes on the 1,000th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, marking a somber milestone that world leaders, gathered at the G20 Summit in Brazil, are watching closely.

Nuclear Doctrine and Escalating Tensions

The missile strike coincided with the Kremlin’s announcement of a revised nuclear policy. Russia has lowered its nuclear threshold, asserting the right to deploy nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks that threaten its sovereignty or territorial integrity. This move aligns with earlier promises by President Vladimir Putin to adjust the country’s nuclear doctrine—a stark warning to the West to avoid crossing Russian "red lines."

Russia has also conducted nuclear exercises in recent weeks, amplifying concerns about the potential for escalation. Analysts remain divided on whether Putin’s actions are a strategic bluff or a genuine shift in policy. One Kremlin observer noted, “Even Putin himself may not know if he will use nuclear weapons. His decisions often stem from emotional impulses, as evidenced by his choice to invade Ukraine.”

While these developments aim to pressure Western leaders, experts believe the lowered nuclear threshold serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved in this protracted conflict.

The Situation on the Ground

In Ukraine, the war continues to shift in Russia’s favor. Analysis from the Institute for the Study of War shows that Russia has captured nearly 2,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024 alone, a significant increase compared to the previous year. Key areas, such as the eastern town of Kurakhove, have experienced heavy bombardment, reflecting the intensity of Russia’s ongoing offensive.

While Ukraine has made some gains, Russian forces have managed to reclaim approximately half the territory lost earlier this year. Despite suffering tens of thousands of casualties, Moscow appears willing to endure the losses to consolidate its territorial advancements.

Global Reactions and Geopolitical Implications

At the G20 Summit in Brazil, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration over what he perceives as a tepid international response to Russia’s nuclear policy changes. The joint declaration issued at the summit reportedly features weaker language condemning Russia compared to last year, underscoring the divisions among world leaders on how to address the conflict.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reiterated the UK’s commitment to supporting Ukraine but declined to comment on whether British-made missiles might be used in similar strikes. He dismissed Russia’s nuclear rhetoric as "irresponsible" and emphasized the need to stand firm against aggression.

Downing Street’s characterization of the Russian government as “depraved” signals an intensification of diplomatic rhetoric. However, the risk of further escalation—both on the battlefield and in geopolitical terms—remains a pressing concern for global leaders.

The Trump Factor and Future Uncertainty

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office, his promise to "end the war in a day" has raised questions about the future direction of U.S. policy. While details of his plan remain unclear, analysts speculate that Russia’s recent territorial gains could strengthen its position in any potential negotiations.

For now, Ukraine’s strategy of striking deeper into Russian territory aims to bolster its leverage in the conflict. However, with two unpredictable leaders—Putin and Trump—dominating the political landscape, the trajectory of the war remains uncertain, and the risks continue to mount.