Little known reason why Raila is preferred over Ruto

 

 The political landscape in Kenya has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent weeks, making the situation almost unrecognizable compared to just a short time ago. A few weeks ago, the political divide was primarily between the Raila camp and the Ruto camp. Today, however, there is a new dynamic with the emergence of the Ruto camp, the Raila-Guru alliance, and the Mucuna-Naka faction.

From a purely political perspective, Raila and Guru’s camp faces a significant challenge from the Mucuna camp. Although Mucuna enjoys widespread support across Kenya and a strong backing from the diaspora, it appears that Raila’s camp might have the upper hand. There’s speculation that Raila, a seasoned politician known for his resilience, might be ready to execute another strategic move that could shift some of Mucuna's support back toward his camp. This shift isn’t guaranteed, but it could dramatically change the political landscape if successful.

The key to this potential shift lies in Raila’s ability to deliver something to the Kenyan people that many previously thought impossible. If he can pull off what he has planned, support for him might return swiftly. However, much hinges on the execution of this plan, and many obstacles remain, so it’s still too early to make definitive judgments.

On the other hand, the fate of the Ruto camp seems increasingly sealed. His supporters, deeply emotional about his leadership, are unwilling to entertain the idea of Ruto not being president in 2022. Despite their fervor, the reality is that Ruto’s camp is facing significant political hurdles, particularly due to trust issues. The political class, and specifically the influential elite in Kenya, is wary of Ruto. The trust deficit is stark: many of Kenya's political heavyweights are questioning whether they can rely on Ruto to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.

One of Ruto’s strengths—his radical support base in the Rift Valley—has also become a potential liability. In 2007, this same base was involved in violence that left a lasting scar on the country. As a result, there is a growing effort to weaken Ruto’s grip on the Rift Valley by shifting support toward Gideon Moi, a move that aims to appeal to the region’s desire for political power. If successful, this strategy could chip away at Ruto’s dominance in the area.

Despite his political shortcomings, Ruto remains a formidable figure due to his strong grassroots following. However, what differentiates Raila from Ruto, particularly in the eyes of the political elite, is Raila’s proven track record of protecting the interests of Kenya’s political class. His actions in 2003, when he supported the former president Daniel arap Moi against an attempt to put him on trial, showcased his ability to safeguard the political establishment. This earned Raila respect, particularly from those who hold significant political power.

Furthermore, Raila’s ability to unite diverse ethnic groups, particularly the Kikuyu and Luo communities, has made him a more trusted figure compared to Ruto, whose alliance with the Kikuyu has been undermined by changing political dynamics. The notion that Raila can form a more stable government, particularly with the support of the Kikuyu and other key groups, makes his political future more viable than Ruto’s.

Despite these advantages, Ruto has begun positioning himself as the champion of the common man, emphasizing his humble beginnings and positioning himself as a fierce opponent of political dynasties. Over the coming months, expect Ruto to highlight his journey from humble beginnings to prominence as a way to connect with voters who are dissatisfied with the political elite.

In the end, the ordinary Kenyan voter’s demand for electoral justice remains a central issue. While Raila seeks to rally support through his promise of a new political path, many Kenyans are not fully embracing the notion of political unity through handshakes. Raila’s ability to present an alternative solution to electoral justice could play a significant role in regaining lost support.

Ultimately, the future of Kenyan politics remains uncertain. However, it seems clear that Raila’s camp and the Mucuna alliance will be major players going forward, while Ruto’s camp faces considerable challenges that may be difficult to overcome. It is a fascinating and fluid political environment, and the coming months will reveal how things unfold.