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Monday, April 27, 2009

Why Snap Elections Are Inevitable

Months ago I said here that the only way Kenya can avoid a serious bloodbath is if we held fresh elections ASAP. See that article HERE. So naturally recent developments have given me plenty of hope that lives can indeed be saved.

The really sad thing here is that a vast majority of Kenyans who read this site (seated comfortably in their air-conditioned offices) will never understand in 100 years what the hurry is all about. And I understand and accept that. Yes, we do not have an electoral body in place. Yes it will take at least 8 months to organize a new voter's register. BUT what is the alternative to NOT having elections ASAP?

Interestingly even the ODM crowd who claim that they are ready for a snap election have no idea what awaits them. They are going to be pretty shocked because they seem to be expecting to replicate the support they enjoyed in December 2007.

Finally in answer to all those dear readers who wonder why I never comment on anything and everything that is going on. I have always believed that my niche here is reading the directions in which the politics is headed. It is the reason why most of you read this blog. For that reason I will rarely comment on something before I have enough information.

What is the alternative to NOT having a snap election? See my March 24th post.

P.S. If a snap election were held in Kenya say, probably mid next year, technically President Mwai Kibaki can stand again. That is if his lawyers accept that there was no winner in the fateful 2007 general elections. Am told that this is something which can be argued in court and things can be "organized." LOL!!!

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,

You have been used to saying "a vast majority of Kenyans who read this site (seated comfortably in their air-conditioned offices)"
Kwani when posting you do it from the comfort ofa loo?

back to the post, this raila fellow seems to have lost it. after graduating from his loo protests, now he wants to be leader of govt business in parliament. he should have negotiated such things while his gangs were still slaugtering the kabila adui, maybe that time he would have gotten it. soon he will demand to move to state house at least to reside in the staff quarters...te he he he....

what was his wisdom in sending legal dwarfs lke sally kosgey and ruto? ama the other fellow orengo who only studied protest laws and domo domo? KIbaki outsmarted them by sending competent lawyers...

Anonymous said...

Chris
Why should we have snap elections? Is it because Raila has now realised he cannot appoint himself to be LGB and his legal adviser failed terribly during serena negotiations?

Does he know Kibaki still has the powers to appoint a new ECK and call for elections at his convenient time.I am for elections after reforms and a new constitution is enacted. We cannot be thinking politics everyday to please some power hungry politicians

Anonymous said...

Chris,
Kibaki himself declared to Kenyans "as your duly elected president", therefore only a compromised court can deliver a verdict in his favour to enable him run again. To him, (Kibaki), 2007 elections were held, he won and duly sworn in for the second term and final term. Don't you remember this Chris?

M-Pesa said...

QUESTION: When not moaning endlessly about the toilets and carpets, 'stolen elections' and Muthaura, this man will be seen whinning about his salary being more handsome than that of the VP. Who is he? No prizes for guessing!

Word on the street is that Kibaki (famous for being sworn in at night) was asking 2 days ago, "Na hii mama ya justice ministry kutoka Gichugu iko wapi?" Apparently it had not occured to the old man that Karua resigned ages ago and that's why justice ministry is still vacant. Talk about being clueless!

It's not funny anymore. A moribund president and a power hungry PM are about to sent this once beautiful country six feet under, Somali style. Now that's not funny anymore.

Guka wa Obama said...

I have always had respect for Raila Odinga despite his many faults but his antics lately leave alot to be desired. We often like to say Kibaki is good but he is sorrounded by bad advisers but I think the same can be said about Raila Odinga. You can hate Martha Karua till heaven comes but you must agree she has a razorsharp legal mind which she used to advise her boss which James Orengo clearly lacks in advising his boss

Raila Odinga was really let down by Orengo, Ruto and Sally Kosgei who negotiated NARA on his behalf. It is so clear even to "madmen and children" that we do not have an institution called "co-presidency" in Kenya but Mr. Odinga was misadvised to that effect to that by loudmouthed but airhead Orengo.

The HBC takeover battles will not lead to snap elections and we are deluded if we think so. I am honestly disppointed that the issue of land which is so crucial in implementation of Agenda 4 is firmly in control of ODM section of the government and they are not showing leadership there.

James Orengo maybe a good activist, but as a minister he is a f**king failure. What land policy has he developed 1 year in office? what leadership is he offering in water catchments repossession, resettlement of IDP's and making the antiquated land registry system more modern? NOTHING

If these are the guys who Raila will depend on to deliver his vision, we will be having snap elections every six months because we will never be satisfied with that kind of mediocrity.

That is not to say, PNU offers anything better. Regarding that congregation of political hyenas, I lost my voice after Dec 2007.

Anonymous said...

The Raila haters are back from their hiding places after a very traumatic last week, what with the Mungiki/Vigilantes extravaganza where Kikuyu's were "very hard at work" burning houses, butchering themselves - generally engaging in senseless murderous binges.

When Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki STOLE the elections and Kenyans got annoyed, you called the Kalenjins savages. Now look at what you Kyuks are doing and will continue doing to yourselves... Who are the real savages now? Kikuyu's, walking around with pangas and carrying out killings and burning houses in their own province of central. Your absurdities never cease to amaze and amuse.

Andruid said...

These politiians of ours are worse than headless chickens in that they refuse to die after a few seconds like headless chickens. Snap elections will just be an exercise in recycling old politicians riding ona wave of discontent towards the current lot with no real motivation to do things differently full stop.

Anonymous said...

Orengo advised his boss that the NARA was ironclad because unlike MOU it was entrenched in the constitution. This weekend he said the Kenyan PM should have the same powers as his British counterpart. I mean even a dumb lawyer should know the difference, in UK they have an executive PM and a Parliamentary system of government.
I think that is why Raila has brought another legal adviser by the name Miguna Miguna from Canada

Anonymous said...

whne will the mungikis go back to "ritual killings" and "devilish sacrifices"? kwani you think we are fools. we know you are mwagaring damu ya watu wenyu coz of the curse that has befallen you. poleni sana mungikis kabila!

Anonymous said...

Miguna miguna is even dumber than orengo. According to Kivutha kibwana who works with him on coalition matters, miguna miguna is the achitect of this odm jurisprudence. PLO Limumba's piece in the sunday stadard was very good in stating what the law is (really not very difficult) but i understand he is now regarded as a "msaliti".

Anonymous said...

Chris ,
There is this notion that Kenya has three governments namely:- Government/PNU headed by Kibaki, PNU side of coalition government also headed by Kibaki and lastly ODM side of the coalition governemnet headed by Raila.

Chris, there is only one government of the Republic of Kenya headed by Kibaki and Raila as the PM.

So those blaming Orengo for any failures in the Land ministry are forgeting that Kibaki ruled him out of order when he started introducing reforms starting with the infamous 99years land lease. Orengo wanted this colonial land policy to be scrapped and went ahead to release the relevant reforms but Kibaki to save his cronies stepped in to stop Orengo.Given a free hand Orengo would single handedly bring the required land reforms. Kibaki knows it!

Anonymous said...

The elections of December 2007 were a farce. They were STOLEN by the loser.

I agree with you Chris, snap elections are inevitable. However, all measures should be put in place so that there is NO STEALING like December 2007.

John Maina said...

Its pathetic for anyone defending a senile illegitimate kibaki who is leading our beloved nation to self destruct. the PNU mongrels keep qouting the consitution when it suits them yet this senile man has been breaching it left to right as examplified with his recent illegal districts creation, taking no actions against the useless police commissioner and chief justice at the same time conniving with the stupid muthaura to subotage institution. Would anyone sane say muthaura who is in every PNU meeting is a neutral civil servant?

Marende must proof himself a reformist by allowing PM to take the HBC seat.

Anonymous said...

John Maina
Marende has no choice but to follow the law as non partisan speaker ought to do. That does not make him a reformist unless there is a new definition of this word

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:24 AM,

Very well put (these panua mongrels are always fraudulent with the truth):

"Those blaming Orengo for any failures in the Land ministry are forgeting that Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki ruled him out of order when he started introducing reforms starting with the infamous 99 years land lease.

Orengo wanted this colonial land policy to be scrapped and went ahead to release the relevant reforms but Kibaki, to save his land grabber cronies, stepped in to stop Orengo. Given a free hand Orengo would single handedly bring the required land reforms and that is something that Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki knows and is scared stiff of.

Anonymous said...

John Maina,
There is a little item on all wordprocessors on market now known as a spell-checker. Make use of it, you wont be charged for it.

When you are done doing that, tell the world what letter of law allows Raila Odinga to lead the HBC!

Anonymous said...

Now PNU wants Marende to discurd the accord and support them by appointing Kalonzo Musyoka to HBC. Why then did PNU vote against him? It is like saying Nancy Pelosi supporting Republicans!!!

Anonymous said...

Chris

Now even Moi whom some leaders advised to go home and look after his goats and watch TV and see how a government is run, can offer good piece of advice to Kibaki. In short he was telling Kibaki not to hoard information relating to territorial matters because this defeaning silence from state house was causing unnecessary restlessness in the country.

I salute Mzee Moi and the Kibera young men who have restored Kenya's pride among free nations of the world.

A president does not just keep quiet when a piece of his territory is grabbed by an expansionist president like Uganda's Museveni. Kibaki should listen to what Mzee Moi says and the cries from Kibera. Do not equate Diplomacy with Silence!

Anonymous said...

John Maina @ 6:27 AM,

You are spot on:

"PNU mongrels keep qouting the consitution when it suits them yet Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki has been breaching it left, right and center without a care in the world as examplified with his recent illegal districts creation.

...........Would anyone in his or her right senses say Francis "past retirement age" Muthaura who is in every PNU meeting is a neutral civil servant?

By the way I'll not be surprised if Francis "past retirement age" Muthaura comes up with an anouncement that the retirment age for civil servants has been raised to 99 years.

Anonymous said...

Orengo is a crying FLOP. There's nothing defensible there, from his 'negotiation' of NARA which has left the bumpkins nuts exposed and flapping this and that way in the cold wind, to his current tenure as Land Minister. The bumpkin should get rid of him. Bure kabisa! PNU needs proper competition.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6.46
Marende is not appointing Kalonzo to head HBC, he has no powers to do so. If you were keen on what is going on, you would know who appointed Kalonzo and funny enough who appointed himself

Anonymous said...

Methinks if this guy becomes prezo even the little powers that have been ceded to other institutions will be ordered returned to the presidency. I mean everybody including anyang nyongo acknowledges prezo is head of gava and therefore leader of gava business in parliament. Anybody else can only hold the job of LGB as delegated responsibilty by the president. The standing orders say it can be any minister, but only the head of gava can say which minister.

Anonymous said...

Chris,
Kenya's judiciary and even Parliament are fond of giving "flat" rulings. These are rulings stating the obvious e.g. ...therefore according section bla bla bla of the constitution, ...the president carries the day.

Tomorrow Marende should give Kenyans an earth moving ruling for a change!

Anonymous said...

Kalonzo "Msaliti" Musyoka anaendelea kutimiwa kama karatasi ya choo, doing the donkey work for Kibaki.

Rachel Shebesh put it very well yesterday afternoon (sunday 26th):

Kalonzo should not let himself to be used like toilet paper. We all know that he will not be the PNU Presidential candidate during the next elections. The Mt Kenya cabal of land grabbers, looters and thieves have "reserved" that position for Uhuru "millions of acres of grabbed land" Kenyatta.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:51,

There are two applicant from the job of head of HBC, both from government. To me Raila is right person because his agruments are supported by the NARA and he can get the job (reforms) done because ODM has majority in parliament. If Marende is not appointing the head of HBC then why are you waiting for his ruling? Why don't you just go and install your leader in parliament without his knowledge and we see what happens. What will you do if he rules that Raila odinga is the head of the HBC!!!

Anonymous said...

Kalonzo will be used and then dumped, you can take that to the bank. That is a prediction that will soon come to pass.

One Wife Man said...

Chris aka Chriso,
you are making kenyans who sit in offices feel bad because not all of those offices are air-conditioned you have to wear short-sleeves to air freshen. also sometimes its not comfortable sitting because the secretaries (both male and femal) "wanatoa macho".

most kenyans are on Kumekucha via cyber cafes or "internet kahawa" and even there its not comfortable because the air-conditioning is a tiny fan next to the "cashier"- also there's no privacy in most cafes-someone can easily see you typing comments and putting false monikers

Taabu aka Teacher,
its empty without SG AND FT-nani kama hawa?

Anonymous said...

Danson Buya Mungatana: "Kibaki has failed to provide direction and I challenge him to dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections instead of wasting time fighting over whom, between the PM and VP, should chair the House Business Committee,"

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Anonymous said...

Anon 7.16
Let start by saying there were no applicants for the head HBC job, damn are you saying that the VP and PM actually applied for job?

Second there is a difference between appointing or nominating someone for a job and making a ruling in the house. The speaker can only make a ruling based on house standing order and the constitution.

Third, I am not waiting for his ruling as you imply. I would encourage you read some stuff on the functions of the three arms of the government: Executive, Judiciary and legislature or parliament and the role of the speaker to get a clear picture

Anonymous said...

If there are fresh elections, Kibaki cannot run again. He is serving is second and final term. And the constitution is clear, even if he serves it for a day. If he runs, he will be running for unconsitutional third term. Thus, Kibaki will not call for elections, and there won't be any elections till 2012.

Anonymous said...

If the snap elections are called before Kibaki serves a substantial portion of his second term he would be entitled under the law to run again. Whether he would agree to run is another matter.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7.41,

Don't teach me about the constitution because I know everything from start to end including NARA. Marende may disregard the president's appointment and make his own ruling based on parliament standing orders or his intepretation. One thing he may do is to put the house to vote and you know definately who will be the winner. Second, he may choose to ingnore the position of head of HBC. Third, if he chooses to support president's choice (which is what you support) the ODM mps will initiate vote of no confidence on Kalonzo which will go through because ODM has the numbers. So what will the President have achieved by choosing Kalonzo? Rubish!!

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:06,

Kibaki does not need to call for elections for the elections to take place. If the mps vote against the HBC, then parliament cannot transact any business for six months. This means the government functions will be brought for a complete hault since finances are approved by parliament. In addition, the constitution says that parliament stands dissolved if it is closed for 3 months.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8.20

1) Exhibit your legal acumen by stating exactly which standing orders call for vote of no confidence on LGB.

2)On what will standin orders will Marende put the house to vote regarding the LGB?

You know everything from NARA to the end, pray do tell us.

Anonymous said...

we all know all this is empty talk! solutions are very simple in Kenya today. so ODM should stop whining and correct the problems we have. They are the MAJORITY in government. let them bring bills to change the current constitution to suit better governance. they can do it instea dof making noise. let them bring bills, make sure proper reforms are there, electoral body is there and then when they are satisfied, bring a no confidence motion. very simple. all this can be dont in 30days if they use their silly heads!!!

Anonymous said...

ODM were outwitted at Serena because they let politicians hand technical matters. As an ODM supporter, it pains me to see that the Prime Minister takes the advice of politicians and his relatives, when he should engage smart technocrats to give superb advice on how to handle technical issues. this is where kibaki beats him hands down.

plus ODM should be wary of a new election cos they ought to know that though they may have vast support, most of their voters are not dependable (especially luhyas and coastarians) and might not show up at the ballot box (unlike the PNU one). The possibility of loosing is high unless they do voter education instead of politiking.

And why would we go for elections without reforms? I dont like to see the PM make the same mistake kibaki has made due to the immense presidential powers.

We need reforms before any elections

Anonymous said...

and if kibaki can run again perhaps so can moi

Anonymous said...

you see there would be no such problems under the moi's 'form a line' system....

Anonymous said...

Do you know that the military as we speak is secretly planning to take over government as a remedy. They are tired with the current crop of leaders. Sources say that after takeover, they will hurredly constitute a kangaroo court and execute all prominent leaders. Wwatch this space in the coming few months; kenya is ripe for a military coup

Anonymous said...

I think kenya should collapse so that we start afresh. RAO & EMK are definatly in the list of leaders who will get a bullet between their heads. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!

makena said...

"what with the Mungiki/Vigilantes extravaganza where Kikuyu's were "very hard at work" burning houses, butchering themselves - generally engaging in senseless murderous binges."

Trolling is such a sad activity. The thought that a coherent adult wastes time spreading hatred and bigotry on the internet makes me wonder.
It is equally sad when they don't seem to engage their brains before typing. Whoever you are, there are plenty of young adult chat rooms where you level of intelligence would be appreciated.

Anonymous said...

Chris, the only thing that will snap is your butt if you continue with your ushoga activities....pls stop for the sake of your body

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