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Thursday, November 08, 2007

A rumour, yet to be verified

I received this email from a trusted source. Phil, what do you make of it?

Hi Chris.

I’m hearing a rumour that Raila will switch at the last minute and run in Bondo and Oburu will step down. Can you try find out how real this is?

Apparently I’m told that ODM have seen that it will not be possible for him to take Langata. Too many people have been registered in Langata who will vote Livondo or Waruinge. They say that ODM top brass are worried about what would happen should he win Presidential and lose his seat so they don’t want to take the risk.

To give Raila a soft landing they want to use the Luo tradition 'chira' (deference to ones’ elders) in this case they will say that if Raila is president then Oburu cannot 'bow' down to him as in when in Parliament bowing to the Head of state. It’s a little weak don’y you think? But see if you can find out anything.

Thanks.
P.S. We'll know for sure on the 16th.

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14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh my, I don't believe that you guys are in effect giving cartoons like Livondo credit by entertaining these rumors!

Phil said...

Chris, these are propaganda rumours started by Kibaki Tena / NSIS. The same sources have been distributing a fake MOU between Raila and Kenya muslims.

Back to your question; 1st - As a presidential candidate holding a nomination certificate and leading in opinion polls; what damage would such a move make on his presidential bid? Have you guys not already seen the published ODM nomination list? It confirms that Raila is the sole ODM candidate for Langata. And to prove it, just download the huge voter register from the ECK website and check Kibera Primary polling station.

That aside; it is not possible for one to stand as MP at a constituency in which he/she is not a registered voter. The last time voter registration/transfer was officially done was in May 2007. At that time, Livondo had not declared his interest in Langata (he was still raining counterfeit 200/- currency notes in Ikolomani). We all wonder when he transfered his vote to Langata and to which polling station? At least he is smart enough to realize Kibera residents will not accept fake currency so they would rather be given Chinese bicycles at Otiende shopping centre.

Waruinge's court order still stands - and any judge dimwit enough to lift that ban - will literary be signing death warrants for some slum dwellers in Kibera. He is a mercenary on hire in Langata. In this day and time, surely, what bill/motion would any right thinking citizen expect Ndura to bring to the national assembly?

Raila has been to our Sunday Kamkunji in Kibera (near Olympic Primary School) on several occassions and he has re-confirmed he is still registered as a voter in Langata (specifically the Kibera Primary School polling station in Kibera) and there's no way he will abandon his constituents who have stood by him since the terrible Nyayo days. Langata happens to be one of the driving forces of Raila's presidential bid. It is also a place he enjoys immense grassroot support. Multi-party politics history teaches us that it is no easy tak for a non-Gema to be elected an MP in any of the eight provinces of Nairobi.

Although there has been allegations of voter importation after the May 2007 registration exercise, the last updated voter register is in the hands of ODM; any significant change when the final voter register is published will result in "resistance Kibaki has never seen in his life" just to quote Raila. This is no idle threat.

As the e-mail from your trusted source rightly points out, it is culturally forbidden for Raila to elbow out Oburu as his elder brother. My own take is that if it not Langata, it will be Muhoroni, Kisumu Town East or Rarieda in that order.

Lastly Chris, I think you agree with me that there is no way in hell that Livondo - who confessed to fornication and infidelity, a former chauffeur for a PNU activist, a member of a well known drug and sugar smuggling cartel, and now multi-billionaire - can defeat Raila at any political contest anywhere in this world. We all know Livondo is being used by forces very close to the Artur's brothers - whose imported container contents were never exposed but are known to contain explosive contraband that Livondo himself trades in. Very soon, revelations will be published and that is when Kenyans will understand who Livondo is.

On Raila there will always be propaganda. There also will be hatred. There's also phobia. Take your pick.

chris said...

Hi Phil,

Hope that you are doing great.

Please confirm this statement from your detailed reply above;

That aside; it is not possible for one to stand as MP at a constituency in which he/she is not a registered voter.

I am informed that according to the current Kenyan law, as long as you are a registered voter you can stand for elections anywhere in the country. But then I could be wrong. Please confirm.

-Kumekucha-

Anonymous said...

Chris you are right. Only thing you cant do is vote outside your registered contituency. That said, I must also say this blog is soooo ODM.I'm not sure Chris is not Raila himself

Anonymous said...

As long as you are a registered voter, you can stand in any constituency as long as you can show that you have lived in that place for a period of at least six months. (Under majimboism it would be different as Raila would not be eligible for a Nairobi seat). I think Kibera seat has only been taken by Hon(in waiting) Livondo. But even if Raila is chased out of the city, we are told that Hon livondo is going to follow him wherever he goes even if it is a save seat in the Kavirondo Gulf. Let him go and sign his secret MOUs at Bondo. Livondo is the new kid in the block. Kioko. BC, Canada. Kazi iendelee....Kibaki tena na tena.

Anonymous said...

Chris that is true, as long as you are kenyan, you can stand anywhere and even if you are not a registered voter, even though party nominations will require you to be a voter. A case in point is Orie Rogo Manduli who vied for the Kisumu Town West(Not sure) though she was registerd in Kasarani

Phil said...

The law is somewhat vague on this requirement Chris. It talks of an MP being "registered in some constituency" amongst other requirements.

However, ECK regulations that were approved by parliament, and are now constitutionally recognized puts tough conditions for civic and parlimentary candidates with regard to their nomination. I am trying to get the relevant copy and I shall post it here once I get it.

You may recall when Ali Hassan Joho was contesting the recent Kisauni constituency boundary alterations in court, one of his pleas was that "he would be unable to vote for himself" if the ECK were allowed to go ahead with the alterations. I am also trying to get the details of this case and will revert.

I know Derek and Vikii will oppose anything I post here, but I guess we are all looking forward to see what they shall post too.

Taabu said...

Phil stop crying wolf. The lwa only demands one to be a registered vote to contest as MP. Nothing like you can only contest in the contituency in which you arre registered. Remember Rie Rogo-Manduli being in Kasarani in 2002 and then Kisumu West later against Ken Nyagudi?

Don't waste time cutting and pasting anything it is that clear. Only registered voters period. Keep Derek and Vikii out of this please.

Phil said...

Crying wolf for what, Livondo? You must be joking!

The same law allows the eck to conduct voter registration through out specific times. It further allows existing voters to transfer polling stations.

In any case, I am not quoting the law, but ECK regulations Do you have an updated copy, Mwalimu Taabu?

Just read what Vikii and Dreoo are posting elsewhere on the blog. You will see what I mean. And why must you always run to Vikii's defence Taabu, is there something we are missing?

Vikii said...

Phil, you are afraid of your own shadow. I have tried my best to keep away from any Raila-Livondo debates and you want to draf me along.

Now, you have really suprised me. Ati you cannot contest in a constituency in which you are not a voter. You even go ahead and make a whole paragraph on that. That's laughable Phil. I expected you as someone who has been in the game for quite sometime now to be a little bit more informed.

Bw. Phil, the by-elections of Sabaot after the death of Mike Wamalwa were won by Davies Nakitare who was registered in Kwanza constituency. After the death of Joab Omino, the LDP, the MP you some time claimed to be a member of, was thoroughly trying to get Musalia Mudavadi to contest there. I mean we should not even be talking about examples. Standard five "workbook" Civics lists the requirements of a parliamentary candidate as....., must be a registered voter,.... There is nothing like you must be a registerred voter in Bondo.

deroo said...

How sad that an academic dwarf like Stanley Livondo and Ndura Waruinge, can stand against a king maker?

And if he running away from Livondo, a man who cannot spell STANLEY backwards, then politics is doomed.

A king maker who could not make himself king in 1997 and neither could he make his own dad king in 1992.

As for Bondo, no queries. He can decamp any time. Infact, after Kibaki wins, he can decide the next day to defect, start another party called Jaramogi Party and travel all the way to Bondo and start for what is truly theirs. And when he retires, he can have his son Fidel, (pushed to marry a Kikuyu woman after the ADUI spin) to take over from him and Kazi ya Upinzani IENDELEE.

But I wonder aloud about a few things. What has the constituents of Bondo and the larger NYanza (Luo) gained in the last six years.

Apart from the Molasses plant, that was gotten by serenading to Moi, there is nothing that the community can solely claim as economic achievment.

Anything that is there has come from the Central gobvernment. who have tarmacked trhe road, authorised the Yala Swamp project, and even provided management for the Sugar factories that employ the natives.

And apart from that, the only other business that thrives id boda-boda, fishing (which the natives are exploited selling a fish for 3 shillings lest it goes bad) and the thousands of HIV/AIDS NGOs that dot the province. Same is Kibera or Langata, in Nairobi where the undisputed King Maker represents in the august house.

Compare that to other parts of the country and you get what I ma talkng about and my opposition to Phil's frequent noise about some tribes in Kenya enriching themselves.

Did Kibaki tell the Mt Kenya tycoons to pool their cash and buy KENGEN shares, NO. Did he tell them to invest their 'drugs' cash (as claimed by Raila in the NSE)? NO. they did so because they are prone to improving their own lives and future generations!

Going to Bondo will simply tell the world that nothing has been achieved under the Odingaism opposition politics since 1966.

Anyway, going to BONDO or not, much about ODINGAISM has to be thought about deeply. There come a time when certain things have to come to an end and the end is not far.

He will only deny another relative a seat in parliament and redice the number of relations in parliament by one.

Anonymous said...

PANUA's supporters I just wish you well, and hope you will continue posting comments after 27th December like men, and not hide your tails....

Anonymous said...

What is Chira? Chris, please tell us more about this primitive custom. Kioko. BC, Canada. Kazi iendelee..

Anonymous said...

HEY GUYS,
WHATEVER THE POLITICS IS, WANJIKU (VOTERS) WILL DECIDE. I JUST HOPE THAT THEY DECIDE WISELY.

NOW, CAN I ADD THAT ODM SUPPORTERS SEEM SO CONFIDENT RAILA WILL WIN THAT THEY WILL SURELY CRY FOUL PLAY WHEN HE LOOSES. POLLS OR NO POLLS, KENYAN POLITICS ARE NOT DECIDED 2 MONTHS IN ADVANCE. THEY ARE DECIDED 2 DAYS BEFORE THE POLLS. (REMEMBER 2002 WITH PROJECT UHURU AND KANU?)

WE WILL HAVE AN IDEA WHO THE WINNER WILL BE, COME DECEMBER 25th, BECAUSE WE DONT KNOW WHAT BLUNDERS ODM OR PNU WILL MAKE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. GOING BY PAST ISSUES, ODM WILL CAMPAING ITSELF TO LOOSE - MAJIMBO, MoU,s, ODM NOMINATION FALLOUT AND STUPID STATEMENTS BY RAILA (E.G. He will award Civil Service jobs to ODM nominees who loose in the ODM nominations).

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