Raila And The Presidency Part 3: The Big Headache For Raila Strategists In ODM-Kenya

What must be the biggest headache to ODM strategists at the moment is the simple fact that Narc-Kenya are hoping that Raila will be the ODM-Kenya presidential nominee because they have already worked out a rather intricate (albeit very dirty) strategy to deal with him.

And to be honest most analysts believe that a straight race between Raila and Kibaki would be a ticket back to State House for Kibaki. This is the fact that Kalonzo Musyoka has been using to justify his arrogance and insistence that he is the only person within ODM-Kenya who can defeat President Kibaki, given the tribal arithmetic and that he should therefore be handed the party nomination on a silver platter. Yet Raila, being human must be spoiling for a direct fight with a president he helped get elected but who then promptly betrayed him and did exactly what Kenyatta did to Raila's own father decades earlier. Jaramogi Oginga Odinga handed the presidency to Kenyatta by insisting that he be released from detention before Kenya could negotiate independence with her colonial masters. His main motive was to stop the then unstoppable Tom Mboya. Kenyatta rewarded the older Odinga with the vice presidency, but soon after that alienated him and hounded him out of office using Tom Mboya's clever political maneuvers.

Frankly, even selecting a high profile Vice presidential running mate will not solve this nagging problem for Raila. Raila himself must be keenly aware that Narc-Kenya plan to provoke the tribal anti-Luo-presidency-sentiments that many major communities in Kenya have deep inside them, firmly planted by years of deliberate propaganda from the Kenyatta administration. The result is that there are a number of major tribes who will hesitate to vote for a man who is "not cut". It matters little that Raila is one of the bravest politicians Kenya has seen—that's exactly what propaganda is designed to do.

Still there is little doubt that Raila Amollo Odinga will this time vie for the highest office in the land. He has already committed himself so much that he has reached that point of no return. His grassroots support and base of loyal delegates is unmatched at Kenya's leading opposition outfit at the moment. Not to mention the fact that time is rapidly running out for the ambitious Raila. Meaning that if he does not get to State House this time round, he is unlikely to ever make it to Kenya's most prestigious address.

Raila is of course not interested in anything less. Not even his already confirmed perch in the political history of this nation.

So what is going to happen?

It is difficult to predict at this early hour, but chances are that a crowded presidential field (that will include Kalonzo running on another party's ticket and a host of other surprise candidates) would result in a run off for the first time in the history of elections in Kenya, as all candidates will find it difficult to garner the required 25 per cent in at least 5 provinces. But even that scenario would not necessarily favor Raila.

But in conclusion, as we have already said many times before, what the country badly needs now is a total change of direction and a brand new generation of leadership, two key things that sadly, a Raila presidency cannot deliver.