Compare these estimates to the actual election results
Raila - 67%
Kalonzo Musyoka - 17%
Mwai Kibaki - 15%
These are my findings and a reflection of exactly what the situation is like on the ground. Kindly restrain yourself for a few days and then make your comments after the 27th as the results are trickling in.
The big surprise is the big margin Raila is expected to win with and the other is Kalonzo Musyoka defeating Kibaki.
Interestingly if you check the so-called NSIS figures tied to voter turn out they are some similarities assuming high voter turn out.
What the opposition need to be very careful about is the fact that PNU and the Kibaki think tank are now playing a game of pure mathematics in a last gasp attempt to win the elections. Meaning that the higher the voter turn out in President Kibaki’s strongholds, the bigger a chance he has of somehow stealing these elections from Raila.Naturally the lower a turn out in Raila's strongholds the better for PNU.
Internal Security minister John Michuki has directed chiefs to identify sickly, elderly and disabled voters with a view of providing transport for them to go and vote. Michuki even suggested that whistles be used to wake up people on the 27th so that they go out and vote.
Naturally certain tactics will be used in ODM strongholds to limit the number of people who will vote. The whole process can be deliberately slowed down with voting starting late. There can be deliberate shortages of ballot papers etc.
If the NSIS figures are to be believed then this is very serious business and the election can be won or lost by PNU totally based on voter turn out. And if you were PNU you would use every trick in the book would you not?