New Finance Minister: Possibles And Probables

As President Kibaki grapples with the decision of appointing a new finance minister, he must be finding that his options are extremely limited.

There are several reasons for this. Probably top on the list is that the President needs somebody he can work with closely. This is because despite the president’s approach of delegating, being an economist and one of Kenya’s longest serving finance ministers, the finance ministry is his pet docket and in terms of policy and direction has been dominated by Kibaki ideas right from day one. There are those who would argue strongly that the real Finance Minister has been Kibaki himself.

To make matters worse, the President’s possible choices are very limited in a list of ministers that includes the likes of Koigi Wa Wamwere, Maina Kamanda and radical Embakasi MP Mwenje.

Settling for the old guard within the cabinet is an unlikely option because this will be both a PR disaster and the wazees are also bound to want to be their own man and thus drift away from the carefully crafted policies that have shown promise so far. The old guard would include the likes of former finance ministers, George Saitoti and Simeon Nyachae.

The whole issue is further complicated by the fact that as the elections draw dangerously close, the economy is one of the very few areas where the current government can point to being a success. The president is naturally desperate to maintain this image and it will be at the top of his mind as he settles on his choice for a new finance minister.

Chances are high that an Assistant Minister will suddenly find themselves elevated into this plum job. But rather than being their own man, they should be prepared to work under very close supervision from the boss himself.

Some would consider Mukurweni MP Mutahi Kagwe who has handled sensitive assignments for the president in recent times to be a front runner for this job. He is currently the minister for communications. If this were to happen then a new Minister from Meru would most probably be appointed to the reshuffled cabinet to keep the careful regional balance in the so called government of national unity.

Yet another option would be to appoint the first woman Finance Minister in the history of the country. This could just be the sort of PR gimmick that can divert a lot of public attention away from a number of critical issues facing this government. The likes of Dagoretti MP Beth Mugo would be a likely choice if such a course of action were taken.