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The Kalonzo Musyoka You Don't Know And His Big Obstacle In His Own Back Yard.

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What we are now seeing happening within ODM-Kenya has been simmering for a long time.

There are actually two separate but related issues that are causing all the heat, in the party that many Kenyans (this blogger is not one of them) see as the only hope for the country.

There is the man whom many Kenyans have never heard of until now, Daniel Maanzo who is the registered chairman of ODM-Kenya. He says he stepped aside temporarily for defacto chairman Henry Kosgei who has more experience dealing with politicians. However Maanzo now says that he cannot just sit and watch the party being taken over by certain un-named individuals who are "dishing out" party posts to their friends, relatives and even girlfriends. Maanzo makes no secret of which side he falls on and has already said that he will move to court should Kalonzo lose the ODM presidential nominations.

Then there is the issue of hackers who hacked into Kalonzo Musyoka's web site and made some cheeky changes. Any visitors to Kalonzo's site now get automatically re-directed to Raila Odinga's site. And that's not all; visitors to the site are informed that Kalonzo has stepped down for Raila to be the party's presidential candidate. It is worth noting that traffic to Raila's site is over 3 times higher than the traffic Kalonzo usually receives (just check Alexa statistics), so there is really very little damage to Kalonzo from this move. If anything the whole incident paints Raila and his supporters in very bad light. It only helps in confirming the damaging image of hooliganism that many closely identify Raila's radical supporters with. In fact Raila himself seems to be getting impatient with some of his supporters. At a recent meeting he had to rebuke a section of the crowd who were insisting "Raila tosha" and angrily told them that he was not interested in getting the ODM-Kenya nominations through the back door.

There is one angle that the Raila and Kalonzo camps have not considered in this whole hacking saga. And that is the possibility that the whole operation was carried out by a third party, namely ODM-Kenya enemies intent on triggering an all out war between the two major candidates leading to the much-talked about fall out. Everybody knows that tension has been simmering on the surface for months. It needed something so small like this petty web site business, which is really of no consequence to light the fuse and cause the current explosion. In fact a third party is the most likely culprit in this whole web site saga.

Sadly what many Kenyans do no realize is that ODM-Kenya being old Kanu in sheep's clothing, means tactics being used here are old Kanu tricks.

For example, being a lawyer, Kalonzo Musyoka played a major role in the registration of ODM-Kenya and in the process planted as many of his men as possible (for use later). One good example of this is party chairman Daniel Maanzo who has just now started showing his true colours.

On the other hand, Raila is no political novice and in recent times has been busy shoring up support within the party by pushing his people into key strategic positions. This is what Maanzo has been referring to when he says that he cannot just sit and watch the party being taken over by certain un-named individuals who are dishing out party posts to their friends, relatives and girlfriends.

The tensions between the two factions of Raila and Kalonzo within ODM-Kenya have been heightened by the arrogant positions taken by both. Raila supporters are sure that as the founder of the party, Raila should be the automatic ODM-Kenya candidate for the presidency. On the other hand Kalonzo supporters buoyed by Steadmann polls that have consistently placed their candidate second to President Kibaki in popularity are sure that Raila being a Luo is unelectable and only their candidate can deliver victory to ODM-Kenya. No compromise is feasible between these two positions.

Keen political observers are now pointing to the fact that Raila, made a serious miscalculation in forming ODM-Kenya this early in the game. The world over coalitions is usually created after elections. Feelers are usually sent out just before the elections. This idea of forming a coalition under the umbrella of a unified party, over one year before the elections is sheer madness and was bound to fail even before the ink had dried on the registration certificate. These analysts (this blogger included) point to the Narc coalition that won the elections in 2002. Narc was hurriedly put together barely 2 months to the polls. The earlier union of NAK that had brought together Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu was not strong enough to have won the elections.

How does one expect to keep politicians of different pedigree together in the same ship for a year?

Indeed this is exactly the same mistake Narc-Kenya has made. In fact it was Narc-Kenya that started this whole madness.

Former powerful internal security minister, Chris Murungaru seems to be the only politician who has analyzed the whole situation correctly. He is on record as saying last week, that Kenyan politics being coalition politics dictates tactics that are very different from those being employed by Narc-Kenya. Namely forcing a coalition together long before the polls. Little wonder that the tensions within Narc-Kenya are so high.

Actually the ideal situation would have been to let the different constituent parties carry out their own campaigns and maybe come together at the last possible minute.

As it is, this whole crazy scenario seems to have been inspired by President Kibaki's so-called political advisors who simply want to replicate the 2002 success of the National Rainbow Coalition. The interesting thing is that these political advisors, who are all close friends to the president, have no track record of successful political advice. They are in fact the same people who led the President to his resounding referendum defeat.

A Kenyan safari of a lifetime at a price you will not believe.

Monday, February 26, 2007

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Rifts In ODM-Kenya As Kalonzo And Raila Camps Go For Each Other's Jugular