Martha Karua Says “No” Reforms Without A Referendum: Is This Battle Headed For A Bloody Conclusion?

Gauging by the way President Kibaki's administration is reacting to calls for reforms, chances are very high that history will repeat itself and we could easily see a bloody end to it all.

Memories of the violence where scores of innocent Kenyans lost their lives in pro-reform demonstrations in the 90s are still very fresh on the minds of many Kenyans. Barring a serious change of attitude on both sides, it would seem inevitable that we are headed in exactly the same direction this time round.

What is playing out now is what the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa used to refer to as politicians playing harmless looking cards on the table while the really dangerous ones are well concealed somewhere under the table.

The opposition has been able to read the planned tactics of the Kibaki campaign team well. The president will clearly be banking on the massive Kikuyu and Mount Kenya vote to give him the simple majority he needs to make it back to State House. Only one thing can stop him—a united opposition. The problem is that opposition unity is not going to be easy. But the opposition can solve the problem of unity with one piece of legislation. The proposed reform law that has sent jitters and violent shivers down spinal chords in the president's camp. This is the proposal that apart from the 25 per cent in every province, to be duly elected, a presidential candidate has to garner 50 per cent of the votes cast plus one. Meaning that virtually all presidential elections in Kenya henceforth will have to move to a round two run-off. In such a scenario the opposition do not need to unite against Kibaki. In fact it will suit them better to stand separately against Kibaki all aiming for the second or runners up slot. And then whoever comes in second moves to the run off where all other opposition candidates are bound to rally behind them against the incumbent. Very simple, very convenient and an easy and smooth way to victory.

The Kibaki camp has correctly read the situation. It is clear that the new piece of legislation (the dangerous card being concealed under the table by the opposition in the clamour for reforms) if passed into law will spell doom for their candidate. So they have hit back with another ace of their own. Justice Minister Martha Karua in a sudden about turn this week said that any reforms must include a referendum. Already the electoral commission chair Samuel Kivuitu has strongly advised against having a referendum and an election within months or even weeks of each other. What this would mean is that the elections will be delayed which will put the opposition at great disadvantage compared to government who not only have an ample war chest, but can also gain access to funds at treasury under various pretexts, if push comes to shove. It is therefore clear that the opposition will be at a great dis-advantage if polls are delayed. Secondly any slight lack of unity amongst the opposition (which is quite likely at this eleventh hour) will easily give victory to the government side in a referendum, meaning that any change to the constitution that would threaten the president will be defeated.

One thing has become very clear, neither of the two "elephants"(opposition and government) will give an inch to the other. This means only one thing—that it is the grass (ordinary mwananchi) who will suffer the brunt. That means any attempts at demonstrations will be marred by violence and the government will use excessive force to ensure that no demonstrations for reforms will take place, let alone the widely taunted mass action.

Ordinary Kenyans have already spilt too much blood and both the opposition and government should do everything in their power to ensure that the call for reforms does not end up being a bloody affair.

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