In retrospect we can say that the biggest mistake Kanu made in 2002 was to keep a close eye on the government controlled KBC as well as the popular KTN TV stations while completely ignoring the then very new NTV. What ended up happening is that despite its’ very limited reach then, the brand new TV station was very effective in helping to create perceptions and shape public opinion on certain key candidates in Narc which were then rapidly passed on by word of mouth and the greatly under-rated “word of SMS”.
Kanu also greatly under-rated the effect of the Daily Nation newspaper would have on the electorate and the direction voters would swing in. This is a mistake many continue to make today, it all emerges from the current situation in the media world which is changing too fast these days. So much so that it is easy to make the wrong call.
A brief example here will drive this point home better. In 1997 the first woman presidential candidate in the history of East and central Africa, Charity Kaluki Ngilu got some excellent press in the Daily Nation. Reading this newspaper in the run up to the elections that year, it looked like she was going to carry the day and be credited with having removed President Moi from power where many men before her had failed.
Then Kanu hawk, Mvita MP and cabinet minister, Shariff Nassir made a statement a few days before election day to the effect that Mrs Ngilu was a creation of the media and that she was not known at the grass roots level. Then fire-spitting Kanu general secretary J.J. Kamotho made an even more curious statement. He warned some un-named enemies of Kanu that they were mistaken of they thought they would repeat what they had done in the Philippines, here in Kenya.
Kamotho was referring to the rumors that were then rife in Nairobi then that Ngilu’s well-oiled and well funded presidential campaign had support from the Americans. By mentioning the Philippines, he was referring to the successful people’s revolution in that country that had put Corazon Aquino into power. It was widely believed that that particular “revolution” was heavily funded and “helped along” by CIA operatives in that country.
What Kanotho was saying in brief was that Mrs Ngilu had no chance of winning the presidency.
Both men were proved correct after the elections because Mrs Ngilu surprisingly trailed NDP’s Raila Odinga and DP’s Mwai Kibaki who was runner up in that year to Moi.
Most in the Kanu think tank in 2002 therefore ignored the Daily Nation assuming that a repeat of 1997 would unfold. They even did very little to counter some slick but hard hitting Narc full page advertisements that were carried in that newspaper. That mistake proved to be fatal.
Although over the years the reach of the Daily Nation has shrunk dramatically, its’ influence has increased in leaps and bounds. In simpler language circulation has not kept up with population growth over the years, but it’s influence and power has grown tremendously. Thanks in part to technology and specifically both email and mobile phones which have had a major and yet still unrecognized impact in the way information and news is re-distributed and ultimately on how public opinion is formed.
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