The Four Most Important Provinces For Anybody Who Wants To Win The Kenyan Presidency

Why A Ruto-Musyoka Partnership Would Carry The Day For ODM Kenya

Kenyan politics is unique in many ways.

Elsewhere in the world, sensible politicians would sit down together and look at their circumstances and then take the appropriate action. Not in Kenya.

For example, judging from the recently released figures from the Electoral Commission of Kenya, all ODM Kenya would have to do is field William "YK92" Ruto as their presidential candidate with Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate and they would be assured of victory. Those two gentlemen happen to come from the two most populated provinces in the country, namely Rift Valley and Eastern (with 2.9 million and 2.1 million registered voters respectively). In face if the proposed amendment to the constitution were to be passed, this is a team that would still be almost assured of getting over 50 per cent of the vote. These two provinces represent almost half the total number of registered voters in the country (12.5 million). This means that Messrs Ruto an Kalonzo Musyoka would need just a few votes from a few other provinces to march effortlessly into State house.

In fact the ODM Kenya chief strategist would only need to have a word with Luo Nyanza (which carries most of the 1.7 million votes the constituency enjoys) and the fate of President Kibaki and Narc Kenya would be sealed.

But then alas, it will never be. Because of several reasons. The first is the bitter experience that Raila and LDP suffered in the hands of President Kibaki with their infamous memorandum of understanding which the president tossed into the nearest waste paper basket the minute he was safely inside State House Nairobi.

That means that this time around there will be a lot of mistrust all round. Raila Odinga has calculated carefully and judging by the feelers going out (including a fascinating piece in the Daily press recently penned by Prof Anyang Nyong'o) this time he is going for nothing short of the jugular with no holds barred. Don' forget that he has already spent a fortune on DSTV advertising his presidential ambitions to the continent and positioning himself as a pan-Africanist. Prof Nyong'o argued in his piece in the Daily Nation that there is no such thing as an unelectable politician. He was of course referring to the widely held belief that Raila Odinga is unelectable as President. The professor gave the rather inappropriate example of John F. Kennedy who was the first Irish Roman Catholic to be elected President of the United States.

So far it in fact looks like the most likely line-up in ODM Kenya will be a Raila and Ruto partnership with Raila as the Presidential flag carrier for ODM.

The reason is simple. The biggest fear ODM has is the Kikuyu vote. All Narc Kenya strategists have to do is send feelers to the House of Mumbi that they are under threat and they will vote almost to a man for Kibaki, not because he is the best choice but simply because he is the lesser evil. ODM strategists are well aware of their sums and the arithmetic involved here.

The latest full list of registered voters by province is as follows; Rift Valley 2.9 million, Eastern 2.1 million, Central 1.9 million, Nyanza 1.7 million, Western 1.4 million, Nairobi 1.1 million, Coast 1.0 Million and North Eastern 255,667.

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The two tribes in Kenya most responsible for tribalism.

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