The EU and AU observer teams are currently addressing a tension packed press conference in which they are urging calm to prevail "in this great country Kenya" even as skirmishes spread countrywide.
President Kibaki and some of his close ministers are holed up in State House Nairobi awaiting official results announcement by ECK. Raila Odinga's whereabouts are unknown.
The observers are urging restraint and stressing that kenyan citizens and their leaders whould learn to respect the law which in this instance mandates the ECK to undertake the counting and tallying of the votes before announcing the final winner(s).
The ECK are also investigating the sudden high voter turn-out in certain constituencies in Mt. Kenya region. They are concerned that the delay in releasing presidential results from these areas raised their interest, more so because the presidential votes appear to outstrip the sum-total of parliamentary and/or civic seats.
Questions are also being raised as to why tallying of votes was not done as is normally and commonly practiced. ie. Presidential, Parliamentary and Civic, in that order. Former ECK Vice Chairman - Gabriel Mukele - attributes this to pressure from politicians.
Raila Odinga: 4.356m
Mwai Kibaki: 4.009m
Votes still awaited from 21 constituencies. Kivuitu expected to announce results any time now.
Updates to follow.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Will Mutahi Ngunyi's Chilling Prediction On Kibaki Come True?
I hereby reproduce an article which we carried in Kumekucha more than a year ago.
Kindly note that this post has nothing to do with tribal opinions because Mr Ngunyi is a Kikuyu from Nyeri
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Will President Kibaki Hand Over Power Peacefully?
When former Nation columnist Mutahi Ngunyi boldly said in one of his columns 2 years ago, that he did not think that President Kibaki was capable of handing over power peacefully in the event of losing elections, many people wrote Ngunyi off as an alarmist.
Now after recent disturbing developments, including the raid on the Standard newspapers and KTN media houses, it is clear that this is no longer such a far-fetched suggestion.
Ironically Mr Ngunyi is now working for the Kibaki administration.
What is probably even more disturbing are the powerful forces working around the President. These are the same forces that cancelled a scheduled meeting between Raila Odinga and President Kibaki after the two met at Safari Park Hotel and mutually agreed on such a meeting.
This meeting would have been for the better of Kenya and those who cancelled it had their individual needs (which hinge on President Kibaki remaining in power) at the topmost on their minds.
Despite some well-laid plans, a defeat for the President is almost certain bearing in mind recent opinion polls. So what happens if the president and his men refuse to hand over power peacefully? What would be the consequences especially when you consider the fact that the wounds created by the referendum of last November are yet to heal?
You can find the original post here;
http://kumekucha.blogspot.com/2006/04/will-president-kibaki-hand-over-power.html
Kindly note that this post has nothing to do with tribal opinions because Mr Ngunyi is a Kikuyu from Nyeri
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Will President Kibaki Hand Over Power Peacefully?
When former Nation columnist Mutahi Ngunyi boldly said in one of his columns 2 years ago, that he did not think that President Kibaki was capable of handing over power peacefully in the event of losing elections, many people wrote Ngunyi off as an alarmist.
Now after recent disturbing developments, including the raid on the Standard newspapers and KTN media houses, it is clear that this is no longer such a far-fetched suggestion.
Ironically Mr Ngunyi is now working for the Kibaki administration.
What is probably even more disturbing are the powerful forces working around the President. These are the same forces that cancelled a scheduled meeting between Raila Odinga and President Kibaki after the two met at Safari Park Hotel and mutually agreed on such a meeting.
This meeting would have been for the better of Kenya and those who cancelled it had their individual needs (which hinge on President Kibaki remaining in power) at the topmost on their minds.
Despite some well-laid plans, a defeat for the President is almost certain bearing in mind recent opinion polls. So what happens if the president and his men refuse to hand over power peacefully? What would be the consequences especially when you consider the fact that the wounds created by the referendum of last November are yet to heal?
You can find the original post here;
http://kumekucha.blogspot.com/2006/04/will-president-kibaki-hand-over-power.html
Breaking News: Trouble In Mombasa
Report From Kakamega And Mombasa
I have just received the following two reports from Kumekuchans on the ground;
This first one I reproduce verbatim;
Hi kumekucha,
I have been following the latest stories of a chance of rigging in president Kibaki,
But the reaction here in Kakamega has started being violent with people chanting "Kibaki toka" and a fight between the police and the people, no business going on and the tension is very high as people follow the proceedings from KICC with more anxiety of the latest development.
Thats is what i can say for now.
Report from Mombasa
It is difficult to believe that the usually peaceful and quiet city of Mombasa has now degenerated into violence. A Kumekuchan on the ground (danlieve) informs me that he was caught in the city centre in widespread fracas and left the island on foot (he lives on the North Coast). For at least two hours there was no public transport operating anywhere in the city as riots have quickly spread across Kenya's second largest city.
The government's response to this is the usual (dealing with the symptom rather than the disease) my appeal to the President is that he acts quickly and averts disaster.
When a peaceful city like Mombasa has trouble...
I have just received the following two reports from Kumekuchans on the ground;
This first one I reproduce verbatim;
Hi kumekucha,
I have been following the latest stories of a chance of rigging in president Kibaki,
But the reaction here in Kakamega has started being violent with people chanting "Kibaki toka" and a fight between the police and the people, no business going on and the tension is very high as people follow the proceedings from KICC with more anxiety of the latest development.
Thats is what i can say for now.
Report from Mombasa
It is difficult to believe that the usually peaceful and quiet city of Mombasa has now degenerated into violence. A Kumekuchan on the ground (danlieve) informs me that he was caught in the city centre in widespread fracas and left the island on foot (he lives on the North Coast). For at least two hours there was no public transport operating anywhere in the city as riots have quickly spread across Kenya's second largest city.
The government's response to this is the usual (dealing with the symptom rather than the disease) my appeal to the President is that he acts quickly and averts disaster.
When a peaceful city like Mombasa has trouble...
Raila Has Won Presidential Race, Kumekucha Tally Clearly Shows
Even as ODM were holding a press conference to claim victory in the presidential race, my tally as I had indicated in an earlier post clearly shows a Raila victory.
Interestingly the ECK is still giving Kenyans stories about missing returning officers and switched off mobile phones to divert attention from the crux of the matter.
Back to my figures. Assuming an amazingly high average voter turn out countrywide of 60% from approx 14 million voters, that would give you a total vote count of 8.4 million votes meaning that as soon as Raila hit 4 million votes he should have been declared the winner. Available figures show that Raila has accumulated well over 4 million votes.
Having said that, the new ODM government must institute immediate investigations into the strange vote counts in some areas of the country in Western Kenya, Eastern Kenya and the Mount Kenya region so as to prevent any future government allies (including the incoming ODM government) from ever using the same tricks in future elections.
Kumekucha takes this opportunity to congratulate Raila Odinga on being elected the 4th president of Kenya. However while wishing him the best I would like to remind him lest the comfort of State House and the trappings of power make him forget; wembe ni ule ule.
Interestingly the ECK is still giving Kenyans stories about missing returning officers and switched off mobile phones to divert attention from the crux of the matter.
Back to my figures. Assuming an amazingly high average voter turn out countrywide of 60% from approx 14 million voters, that would give you a total vote count of 8.4 million votes meaning that as soon as Raila hit 4 million votes he should have been declared the winner. Available figures show that Raila has accumulated well over 4 million votes.
Having said that, the new ODM government must institute immediate investigations into the strange vote counts in some areas of the country in Western Kenya, Eastern Kenya and the Mount Kenya region so as to prevent any future government allies (including the incoming ODM government) from ever using the same tricks in future elections.
Kumekucha takes this opportunity to congratulate Raila Odinga on being elected the 4th president of Kenya. However while wishing him the best I would like to remind him lest the comfort of State House and the trappings of power make him forget; wembe ni ule ule.
Breaking News: ODM Claims Presidential Victory
ODM Presidential Candidate has won Kenya's presidential election according to a press conference addressed by Musalia Mudavadi.
As Samuel Kivuiti was reading the latest results at KICC earlier in the day, the ODM were addressing a press conference claiming victory.Official figures earlier released by ECK gave Raila
3,726,247 votes against Mwai Kibaki's 3,416,139 and Kalonzo Musyoka's 346,214 votes.
However, at an international press conference addressed by ODM presidential running mate Musalia Mudavida, the ODM said, "In view of the growing anxiety and restlessness in the country over the extended delay... we now call upon the outgoing president to acknowledge and respect the will of the Kenyan people and concede defeat." The press conference indicated that ODM's own independent tallying centres had established that Raila had received 4.2 million votes in his favour in comparison to Kibaki's 3.7million votes.
Further reading:
BBC Breaking News: Kenya Opposition Claims Victory
As Samuel Kivuiti was reading the latest results at KICC earlier in the day, the ODM were addressing a press conference claiming victory.Official figures earlier released by ECK gave Raila
3,726,247 votes against Mwai Kibaki's 3,416,139 and Kalonzo Musyoka's 346,214 votes.
However, at an international press conference addressed by ODM presidential running mate Musalia Mudavida, the ODM said, "In view of the growing anxiety and restlessness in the country over the extended delay... we now call upon the outgoing president to acknowledge and respect the will of the Kenyan people and concede defeat." The press conference indicated that ODM's own independent tallying centres had established that Raila had received 4.2 million votes in his favour in comparison to Kibaki's 3.7million votes.
Further reading:
BBC Breaking News: Kenya Opposition Claims Victory
61 ECK Returning Officers Go Underground, Cellphones Switched Off!!!!
11h55 local time
Kivuitu says if balance results are not sent in immediately, ECK will have to announce what they have and ignore those individuals who are "sitting on results" of over 50 constituencies. Kivuitu is categorical that ECK will not wait forever!
The following constituencies have not filed their results with the ECK and a frustrated Kivuitu is threatening to declare Raila Odinga president as the whereabouts of its own Returning Officers is unknown.
Kivuitu says if balance results are not sent in immediately, ECK will have to announce what they have and ignore those individuals who are "sitting on results" of over 50 constituencies. Kivuitu is categorical that ECK will not wait forever!
The following constituencies have not filed their results with the ECK and a frustrated Kivuitu is threatening to declare Raila Odinga president as the whereabouts of its own Returning Officers is unknown.
- Kamukunji
- Makadara
- Dagoretti
- Embakasi
- Changamwe
- Kisauni
- Likoni
- Mvita
- Msambweni
- Kinango
- Bahari
- Magarini
- Garsen
- Ijaara
- Wajir North
- Wajir West
- Isiolo North
- Igembe
- Tigania West
- Tigania East
- North Imenti
- South Imenti
- Nithi
- Tharaka
- Mutito
- Kangundo
- Kathiani
- Mwala
- Mbooni
- Kilome
- Makueni
- Kibwezi
- Olkalaou
- Kiambaa
- Limuru
- Turkana North
- Turkana Central
- Kacheliba
- Kapenguria
- Baringo East
- Baringo Central
- Laikipia East
- Naivasha
- Nakuru Town
- Molo
- Kajiado North
- Sotik
- Buret
- Ainamoi
- Malava
- Emuhaya
- Kimilili
- Funyula
- Muhoroni
- Rangwe
- Ndhiwa
- South Mugirango
- Bomachoge
- Bobasi
- Nyaribari Chache
- Kitutu Chache
Election Update: ECK Awaiting Results From More Than 30 Constituencies!
29th December 2007: 11h15 local time
The ECK Chairman - Samuel Kivuitu - is due to address a press briefing at KICC anytime now.
Meanwhile, independent media tallying have their provisional results are follows:
Raila Odinga: 4.049m
Mwai Kibaki: 3.678m
Kalonzo Musyoka: 661k
However, there are a total of 30 constituencies countrywide whose results are not yet in. The balance constituencies have a combined total registered voter of 2.4 million votes! They include 5 constituencies in coast province, 2 in Nairobi, 3 in North Eastern, 1 in Central, 8 in Eastern and others whose details this blogger is still trying to establish.
It is strange that parliamentary and civic results for these balance constituencies are already officially announced by ECK but the presidential tallies are "unknown" tot he ECK although all votes were counted at the same time by the respective Returning Officers.
The ECK Chairman - Samuel Kivuitu - is due to address a press briefing at KICC anytime now.
Meanwhile, independent media tallying have their provisional results are follows:
Raila Odinga: 4.049m
Mwai Kibaki: 3.678m
Kalonzo Musyoka: 661k
However, there are a total of 30 constituencies countrywide whose results are not yet in. The balance constituencies have a combined total registered voter of 2.4 million votes! They include 5 constituencies in coast province, 2 in Nairobi, 3 in North Eastern, 1 in Central, 8 in Eastern and others whose details this blogger is still trying to establish.
It is strange that parliamentary and civic results for these balance constituencies are already officially announced by ECK but the presidential tallies are "unknown" tot he ECK although all votes were counted at the same time by the respective Returning Officers.
Latest Briefs Elections 2007: Skirmishes Countrywide
Plus two corrupt men refuse to accept defeat from two young ambitious women heading to parliament
Skirmishes have now been reported in parts of Nairobi, Kisumu, Migori, Eldoret and Kakamega as the electoral commission has appealed for calm, claiming that they are trying their best to release the presidential election results as quickly as they can.
This should be a clear sign to those trying to "doctor" the results that Kenyans will not take it.
I am absolutely amazed at how some people are immune to grasping clear and very loud messages from the electorate. Imagine a situation where your point men (previously very popular) have all been rejected countrywide. Imagine a situation where your opponent already controls half of the total parliamentary seats and you still cannot sense the mood on the ground.
Even if Kibaki "wins" how will he rule? These are not the days of Moi and even then Moi did not have all tribes minus Mt. Kenya united against him.
P.S. Meanwhile after a tearful day yesterday being chased from the counting hall by riot police, Margaret Wanjiru is all smiles today as she has been announced the winner of the Starehe parliamentary seat. Kudos, Bishop. My great joy is that this means yet another woman in parliament.
Interestingly Mr K. Kaindi the immediate former MP of Kathiani (who distributed money in the mostly remote and poverty stricken constituency like there was no tomorrow) is like Maina Kamanda refusing to conmcede defeat in the hands of yet another woman, young and very attractive Wavinya Ndeti who has won the Kathiani seat with a huge majority.
Mr President, be careful that you do not face the direct wrath of the angry Kenyan voters, they are certainly in no mood for games.
Skirmishes have now been reported in parts of Nairobi, Kisumu, Migori, Eldoret and Kakamega as the electoral commission has appealed for calm, claiming that they are trying their best to release the presidential election results as quickly as they can.
This should be a clear sign to those trying to "doctor" the results that Kenyans will not take it.
I am absolutely amazed at how some people are immune to grasping clear and very loud messages from the electorate. Imagine a situation where your point men (previously very popular) have all been rejected countrywide. Imagine a situation where your opponent already controls half of the total parliamentary seats and you still cannot sense the mood on the ground.
Even if Kibaki "wins" how will he rule? These are not the days of Moi and even then Moi did not have all tribes minus Mt. Kenya united against him.
P.S. Meanwhile after a tearful day yesterday being chased from the counting hall by riot police, Margaret Wanjiru is all smiles today as she has been announced the winner of the Starehe parliamentary seat. Kudos, Bishop. My great joy is that this means yet another woman in parliament.
Interestingly Mr K. Kaindi the immediate former MP of Kathiani (who distributed money in the mostly remote and poverty stricken constituency like there was no tomorrow) is like Maina Kamanda refusing to conmcede defeat in the hands of yet another woman, young and very attractive Wavinya Ndeti who has won the Kathiani seat with a huge majority.
Mr President, be careful that you do not face the direct wrath of the angry Kenyan voters, they are certainly in no mood for games.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Kibaki's Last Desperate Move...
...And It Will Cost Kenyan Lives
Two incidences of yesterday that many did not take note of to me spoke volumes.
At first I ignored information which I received to the effect that John Michuki had put the crack paramilitary GSU on red alert. Were they fearing excessive celebrations by ODM and Raila supporters, I wondered?
Then a daily newspaper reported about President Mwai Kibaki's strange remark. On being asked by a Foreign journalist whether he would concede defeat, he replied in Kiswahili; "Wacha kuniuliza swali ya upumbavu." (stop asking me a stupid question).
Today Kenyans woke up to some strange happenings. To start with most parliamentary results are in but the presidential results are NOT. Then I personally observed some very "strange" results trickling in from the Mount Kenya region. Unbelievable voter turn out and very high votes for the president, but they do not tally with the parliamentary results.
If he has his way, we are about to see a President whose point men countrywide have been strongly rejected by the electorate being declared president. I wonder how he will feel having been elected ONLY by his own tribe and their neighbors. But I guess some people's consciences get numb when they have power and they would care less.
The big problem is that Kenyans are not going to take it lying down. As I post this I am being told that there is tension and trouble and skirmishes in parts of Nairobi.
Sam Okello has written an open letter that portrays the feelings of millions of Kenyans countrywide.
For those who pray, now is the time to get on your knees and seek divine intervention because the truth is that the country is on the verge of blood-letting.
I have been travelling a lot and even now I am still travelling but I will keep you posted throughout the day, as long as I can find electricity or a Cyber cafe.
I still stand by my Kumekucha poll which gives ODM and Raila over 60% and based on this it is very clear to me that already President Kibaki has rigged and votes in parts of Western and Ukambani do not make sense to me. In fact my careful estimates show that even with the rigging Raila has won. The delay in announcing certain results could be a bid to adjust and tinker votes in certain areas. But according to my calculations the only way Kibaki can win is with a voter turn out of about 150%
Stay tuned to Kumekucha...
Phil and other Kumekuchans currently in Nairobi, what is the situation in the capital city? Please update readers as I seek my insider contacts.
P.S. Is this why so many new ECK commissioners were appointed by President Kibaki who even wanted to remove Kivuitu and replace him with his personal lawyer (the current ECK deputy)?
Two incidences of yesterday that many did not take note of to me spoke volumes.
At first I ignored information which I received to the effect that John Michuki had put the crack paramilitary GSU on red alert. Were they fearing excessive celebrations by ODM and Raila supporters, I wondered?
Then a daily newspaper reported about President Mwai Kibaki's strange remark. On being asked by a Foreign journalist whether he would concede defeat, he replied in Kiswahili; "Wacha kuniuliza swali ya upumbavu." (stop asking me a stupid question).
Today Kenyans woke up to some strange happenings. To start with most parliamentary results are in but the presidential results are NOT. Then I personally observed some very "strange" results trickling in from the Mount Kenya region. Unbelievable voter turn out and very high votes for the president, but they do not tally with the parliamentary results.
If he has his way, we are about to see a President whose point men countrywide have been strongly rejected by the electorate being declared president. I wonder how he will feel having been elected ONLY by his own tribe and their neighbors. But I guess some people's consciences get numb when they have power and they would care less.
The big problem is that Kenyans are not going to take it lying down. As I post this I am being told that there is tension and trouble and skirmishes in parts of Nairobi.
Sam Okello has written an open letter that portrays the feelings of millions of Kenyans countrywide.
For those who pray, now is the time to get on your knees and seek divine intervention because the truth is that the country is on the verge of blood-letting.
I have been travelling a lot and even now I am still travelling but I will keep you posted throughout the day, as long as I can find electricity or a Cyber cafe.
I still stand by my Kumekucha poll which gives ODM and Raila over 60% and based on this it is very clear to me that already President Kibaki has rigged and votes in parts of Western and Ukambani do not make sense to me. In fact my careful estimates show that even with the rigging Raila has won. The delay in announcing certain results could be a bid to adjust and tinker votes in certain areas. But according to my calculations the only way Kibaki can win is with a voter turn out of about 150%
Stay tuned to Kumekucha...
Phil and other Kumekuchans currently in Nairobi, what is the situation in the capital city? Please update readers as I seek my insider contacts.
P.S. Is this why so many new ECK commissioners were appointed by President Kibaki who even wanted to remove Kivuitu and replace him with his personal lawyer (the current ECK deputy)?
Open Letter To President Kibaki
Dear Mr President,
The time has come for you to save the nation. If you'll recall, the Electoral Commission of Kenya asked Kenyans to vote on the 27th, and Kenyans did so in unprecedented numbers. For all of us who love democracy and have worked hard to inculcate a sense of civic duty in our people, this has been a big win. I hope you share the joy of witnessing democracy take hold in Kenya.
After the voting, which the commission insisted had to be wound up by five o'clock on the 27th, vote-counting started in earnest. Within hours the fate of civic and parliamentary candidates across the nation was known. Indeed, you must be aware that some of your strongest supporters in the PNU were trounced by newcomers. What should distress you is that the electoral commission has seemingly allowed the vote-counting process to go on indefinitely. Does it make you wonder why the voting itself was restricted while the counting is open-ended? At what point will you realize that quashing the dreams of an entire nation is an impossible task?
Let me play out the scenarios for you. One, you could go out and concede defeat. What that does is...it makes you take your place as a true democrat, a man who believes in the rule of law and a patriot who puts the interest of Kenya above his own.
Two, you slow the counting in provinces where your people are in total control so that numbers can be tinkered with. What that does, Your Excellency, is it makes you close the gap with Hon. Odinga and may even lead to your narrow victory. But consider the consequences. For starters, your win will be illegitimate. Your government will be illegitimate. And you stand a good chance of facing a successful vote of no confidence in parliament. For a man of your stature, that would be the saddest end to a distinguished career.
And so, Mr. President, I call upon you to listen to the voices of the elders who've told you that it's not worth it. Listen to the wise men and women who've warned you that your government won't survive a ferocious Opposition in the new parliament. And listen to your own inner voice that's telling you to do the right thing.
Don't let the blood of innocent Kenyans be spilled in your name!
Kind regards,
Sam Okello
President & CEO
Sahel Books Inc.
P.o. Box 6451
South Bend IN, 46660-6451
USA
Phone: Toll Free: 1.877.297.2435
samokello@sahelpublishing.net
www.sahelpublishing.net
The time has come for you to save the nation. If you'll recall, the Electoral Commission of Kenya asked Kenyans to vote on the 27th, and Kenyans did so in unprecedented numbers. For all of us who love democracy and have worked hard to inculcate a sense of civic duty in our people, this has been a big win. I hope you share the joy of witnessing democracy take hold in Kenya.
After the voting, which the commission insisted had to be wound up by five o'clock on the 27th, vote-counting started in earnest. Within hours the fate of civic and parliamentary candidates across the nation was known. Indeed, you must be aware that some of your strongest supporters in the PNU were trounced by newcomers. What should distress you is that the electoral commission has seemingly allowed the vote-counting process to go on indefinitely. Does it make you wonder why the voting itself was restricted while the counting is open-ended? At what point will you realize that quashing the dreams of an entire nation is an impossible task?
Let me play out the scenarios for you. One, you could go out and concede defeat. What that does is...it makes you take your place as a true democrat, a man who believes in the rule of law and a patriot who puts the interest of Kenya above his own.
Two, you slow the counting in provinces where your people are in total control so that numbers can be tinkered with. What that does, Your Excellency, is it makes you close the gap with Hon. Odinga and may even lead to your narrow victory. But consider the consequences. For starters, your win will be illegitimate. Your government will be illegitimate. And you stand a good chance of facing a successful vote of no confidence in parliament. For a man of your stature, that would be the saddest end to a distinguished career.
And so, Mr. President, I call upon you to listen to the voices of the elders who've told you that it's not worth it. Listen to the wise men and women who've warned you that your government won't survive a ferocious Opposition in the new parliament. And listen to your own inner voice that's telling you to do the right thing.
Don't let the blood of innocent Kenyans be spilled in your name!
Kind regards,
Sam Okello
President & CEO
Sahel Books Inc.
P.o. Box 6451
South Bend IN, 46660-6451
USA
Phone: Toll Free: 1.877.297.2435
samokello@sahelpublishing.net
www.sahelpublishing.net
Election Update: Fears As Violence Breaks Out
Whole country on the edge as ECK delays announcement of presidential election result
As the ECK dilly-dallies with presidential ballot results, sporadic violence has broken out in parts of the country.
In Nairobi, cars are being stoned and occupants dragged out in kicks and blows at the Kangemi bridge as well as the Globe Cinema roundabout / Kirinyaga Road. It is instructive to note that these areas were previously perceived to be PNU strongholds (Starehe and Westlands) but have now been won by ODM candidates.Motorist and pedestrians are advised to avoid these areas.
This blogger regrettably predicts that it is a matter of time before the violence spreads to other areas across the country – which may force the police commissioner to impose a country-wide curfew if ECK delays announcing the presidential result further.
At the time of posting this (10h00 local time) violence has reportedly broken out in Kisumu (Kondele and Main Bus Park) areas with youth harassing motorist, especially PSV operators from Nairobi who are known to dominate the public transport in Western Kenya circuit. This blogger is also receiving reports of violence against certain communities in Kericho, Muhoroni, Chemelil, Sotik and Narok areas.
More on this as the story develops and the country await the ECK verdict.
As the ECK dilly-dallies with presidential ballot results, sporadic violence has broken out in parts of the country.
In Nairobi, cars are being stoned and occupants dragged out in kicks and blows at the Kangemi bridge as well as the Globe Cinema roundabout / Kirinyaga Road. It is instructive to note that these areas were previously perceived to be PNU strongholds (Starehe and Westlands) but have now been won by ODM candidates.
This blogger regrettably predicts that it is a matter of time before the violence spreads to other areas across the country – which may force the police commissioner to impose a country-wide curfew if ECK delays announcing the presidential result further.
At the time of posting this (10h00 local time) violence has reportedly broken out in Kisumu (Kondele and Main Bus Park) areas with youth harassing motorist, especially PSV operators from Nairobi who are known to dominate the public transport in Western Kenya circuit. This blogger is also receiving reports of violence against certain communities in Kericho, Muhoroni, Chemelil, Sotik and Narok areas.
More on this as the story develops and the country await the ECK verdict.
Tension Builds As ECK Presidential Results Trickle In
29th December 2007: 08h30 local time
With ECK seemingly unable to provide presidential results sub-totals, unmistakable tension and anxiety is building not just at KICC ECK centre but also around the country even as independent media tallying give provisional results as follows:
Raila Odinga: 3.974m
Mwai Kibaki: 3,580m
Kalonzo Musyoka: 535k
Both Raila and President Kibaki have not been seen in public since they voted on 27th December and the ECK has had to postpone announcement of the final presidential results several times - despite the fact that ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu has promised to announce final results by this morning 08h00 local time. The ECK press briefing centre is now full of weary and exhausted journalists and party agents, some of whom have been camping there for more than 36 hours. TV footage has caught some international journalist, unfortunate not to have relievers, sprawled across seats in deep sleep.
ECK Commissioners Muturi Kigano and Jack Tumwa were early this morning put to task by ODM representatives at KICC to explain how they are unable to announce results that were released by various polling stations two days ago although they have already released parliamentary and civic results from the same areas. Matters are not helped by the fact that withheld presidential results are from areas perceived to be PNU strongholds and ODM is alluding that some manipulation could be on going.
The PNU on its part is sensing presidential victory and its representatives have had a few hot exchange of words with ODM representatives at KICC. There is a tight security around KICC and the dreaded paramilitary GSU have ring-fenced the venue in anticipation of social unrest.
Unconfirmed reports going round Nairobi indicates that PNU are planning to hijack the ODM and the country with "a George Bush in Florida" or "a Yar Adua in Abuja", but ODM pentagon members are categorical that Kenya is not USA nor Nigeria. According to Musa Sirma, a former MP and member of ODM Presidential Campaign team, "the ECK should accept to take full responsibility of whatever happens as a result of their delay is announcing results that are already in the public domain and that barricading the KICC will not help matters."
ODM insiders have privately informed this blogger that 6 independent tallying centres commissioned by the party show that the ODM Presidential Candidate is enjoying a comfortable and unassailable lead against the incumbent Mwai Kibaki.
Meanwhile, parliamentary seats won by individual parties so far are as follows:
ODM: 91
PNU: 12
ODM-K: 12
KANU: 7
Safina: 3
Ford: 3
Narc: 3
More updates later. Over to you Chris.
With ECK seemingly unable to provide presidential results sub-totals, unmistakable tension and anxiety is building not just at KICC ECK centre but also around the country even as independent media tallying give provisional results as follows:
Raila Odinga: 3.974m
Mwai Kibaki: 3,580m
Kalonzo Musyoka: 535k
Both Raila and President Kibaki have not been seen in public since they voted on 27th December and the ECK has had to postpone announcement of the final presidential results several times - despite the fact that ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu has promised to announce final results by this morning 08h00 local time. The ECK press briefing centre is now full of weary and exhausted journalists and party agents, some of whom have been camping there for more than 36 hours. TV footage has caught some international journalist, unfortunate not to have relievers, sprawled across seats in deep sleep.
ECK Commissioners Muturi Kigano and Jack Tumwa were early this morning put to task by ODM representatives at KICC to explain how they are unable to announce results that were released by various polling stations two days ago although they have already released parliamentary and civic results from the same areas. Matters are not helped by the fact that withheld presidential results are from areas perceived to be PNU strongholds and ODM is alluding that some manipulation could be on going.
The PNU on its part is sensing presidential victory and its representatives have had a few hot exchange of words with ODM representatives at KICC. There is a tight security around KICC and the dreaded paramilitary GSU have ring-fenced the venue in anticipation of social unrest.
Unconfirmed reports going round Nairobi indicates that PNU are planning to hijack the ODM and the country with "a George Bush in Florida" or "a Yar Adua in Abuja", but ODM pentagon members are categorical that Kenya is not USA nor Nigeria. According to Musa Sirma, a former MP and member of ODM Presidential Campaign team, "the ECK should accept to take full responsibility of whatever happens as a result of their delay is announcing results that are already in the public domain and that barricading the KICC will not help matters."
ODM insiders have privately informed this blogger that 6 independent tallying centres commissioned by the party show that the ODM Presidential Candidate is enjoying a comfortable and unassailable lead against the incumbent Mwai Kibaki.
Meanwhile, parliamentary seats won by individual parties so far are as follows:
ODM: 91
PNU: 12
ODM-K: 12
KANU: 7
Safina: 3
Ford: 3
Narc: 3
More updates later. Over to you Chris.
Is 2007 the new 2012?
Just one look at the election results pouring in from all corners of the country today and you would not be wrong if you came to the conclusion that the Kenyan voter decided to give smoking opium before elections a miss this year and instead went on one long overdue sober parliamentary cleaning spree
Since when did the voters card become such a weapon of straight-forward vengeance? The electorate dispensed blind justice on overfed overcooked political goose, sparing none except those birds whose tribal strongholds could not fathom the idea of what life would be like for them without "mweshimiwa" and their development record
These unfolding events of the past 36 hours days begs asking one question-was there a secret decision by Kenyans to make 2007 elections the new 2012 elections? Not only has there been an increase in the number of first-time women parliamentary aspirants, but it appears that the desire to replace many of the Lancaster House pre and post-independence names and faces is a reflection of the change Kenyans have been crying out and yearning for in their top-most leadership; public servants and officials who represent the hopes, wishes and aspirations of their constituents right down to a letter T
I will be watching closely for signs of the revolution that i thought would take at least another 5 years to hit our Indian Ocean bordering shores-is "democracy" and the ever-elusive "development" finally here for East Africa's largest economy?
All But One ODM Pentagon Members Re-elected Back to Parliament
As Kenya and the world anxiously await the final result of the presidential vote, the Orange Democractic Movement is smiling all the way to the 10th Parliament with members of the prestigious pentagon having been re-elected back to the august house. All but Joe Nyagah who lost to political rookie Mutava Musyimi. But this does not seem to stall the strong orange wave being seen countrywide.
Charity Kaluki Ngilu survived a strong ODM-K wave to emerge the winner while Raila, Mudavadi and Ruto registered landslide wins over their opponents. Ngilu's win is a strong statement to Kalonzo Musyoka and a prophecy of sorts by Ngilu herself who had promised weeping Ministry of Health workers that "she would be back" after she was sacked from cabinet by President Kibaki a few days after she endorsed the candidature of ODM's Raila Odinga.
Meanwhile Kibaki's allies outside the Mt. Kenya region continue to suffer the wrath of the electorate with eighteen of Kibaki's cabinet ministers having been voted out as at last count. Major PNU casualties within the Mt. Kenya region include Mutahi Kagwe, Njenga Karume and Daudi Mwiraria.
Charity Kaluki Ngilu survived a strong ODM-K wave to emerge the winner while Raila, Mudavadi and Ruto registered landslide wins over their opponents. Ngilu's win is a strong statement to Kalonzo Musyoka and a prophecy of sorts by Ngilu herself who had promised weeping Ministry of Health workers that "she would be back" after she was sacked from cabinet by President Kibaki a few days after she endorsed the candidature of ODM's Raila Odinga.
Meanwhile Kibaki's allies outside the Mt. Kenya region continue to suffer the wrath of the electorate with eighteen of Kibaki's cabinet ministers having been voted out as at last count. Major PNU casualties within the Mt. Kenya region include Mutahi Kagwe, Njenga Karume and Daudi Mwiraria.
Moi Shoots KANU in the Head
Former President Daniel arap Moi is either the political giraffe Jaramogi proclaimed him to be or a superlative selfish Kenyan who is determined to die with Kenya's independence party. Moi's unwarranted meddling into Kanu (and by extension Kenya's politics after retiring) has inadvertently sounded the party's death knell.
The angry Kenyan voters have beaten Moi twice. In 2002 they donated to him a piece of political embarrassment in a sounding defeat of his pet project Uhuru Kenyatta. And just when Moi erroneously thought he would recoup lost ground in his sunset days Kenyans in general and Kalenjins in particular have twisted the political knife by denying his son Gideon the Baringo Central seat.
So UK remains the chairman of a shell of a party with a rich history. Kalenjins made sure that any trace of Moi was wiped out of the political landscape. Very few people would have predicted the political demise on Total Man Biwott.
Moi's meddling eventually leaves Kenya politically the poor. With less than 10 MPs Kanu's epitaph is already engraved in golden letters. Add to this grim picture PNU's top guns kissing the political dust and you have Kenyan politics bereft of any meaningful parties save for the shaky ODMs.
Scoundrels never learn, or do they? Whatever they take voters for, the electors are surely miles ahead and will never shy from dishing out serial embarrassment. But behind all the motions lies the obtuse selfishness that our politicians are always very eager to rope us into while cleverly serving their own interests. Washindwe.
The angry Kenyan voters have beaten Moi twice. In 2002 they donated to him a piece of political embarrassment in a sounding defeat of his pet project Uhuru Kenyatta. And just when Moi erroneously thought he would recoup lost ground in his sunset days Kenyans in general and Kalenjins in particular have twisted the political knife by denying his son Gideon the Baringo Central seat.
So UK remains the chairman of a shell of a party with a rich history. Kalenjins made sure that any trace of Moi was wiped out of the political landscape. Very few people would have predicted the political demise on Total Man Biwott.
Moi's meddling eventually leaves Kenya politically the poor. With less than 10 MPs Kanu's epitaph is already engraved in golden letters. Add to this grim picture PNU's top guns kissing the political dust and you have Kenyan politics bereft of any meaningful parties save for the shaky ODMs.
Scoundrels never learn, or do they? Whatever they take voters for, the electors are surely miles ahead and will never shy from dishing out serial embarrassment. But behind all the motions lies the obtuse selfishness that our politicians are always very eager to rope us into while cleverly serving their own interests. Washindwe.
Tears and Cheers Galore
A new don is here folks with dinosaurs kissing their political seats goodbye as the new face of Kenyan politics graces our motherland. Kenyan voters have once again demostrated that they have no respect for cheap political peddlers.
Seeing Gabriel Musikari Kombo's forlon face after suffering a huge thrashing by one Alfred Sambu makes you wonder how fortunes can change in a twinkle of an eye. Joining Kombo in the political dust bin are VP Awori who suffered the wrath of moody voters of Funyula. Add to that pit Tuju, Kagwe, Nyachae, Kulundu, Kirwa, Sang and Munyao among others and you get a complete orbirtuary signed in golden letters.
And as these ex-lords nurse political wounds, a new breed representing the brand Kenya are smiling all the way to the August House. And the message is clear: deliver or wembe ni ule ule in five years time. Our pride and congratulation to Ababu, Kones, Kabando wa Kabando et al.
With proper brains and no shortermism, we don't care who becomes the president. Kenyans have shown the rest of the world that they are in a class of their own. We want our motherland back from the scoundrels.
Meanwhile we at Kumekucha start keeping tabs on the new political faces without fear of favour and the acidic sensoring will not spare any face. No amount of juveline swearing and sweating can deter Kenyans from realizing their dreams with eyes singularly trained on the ultimate prize: SUCCESS.
Seeing Gabriel Musikari Kombo's forlon face after suffering a huge thrashing by one Alfred Sambu makes you wonder how fortunes can change in a twinkle of an eye. Joining Kombo in the political dust bin are VP Awori who suffered the wrath of moody voters of Funyula. Add to that pit Tuju, Kagwe, Nyachae, Kulundu, Kirwa, Sang and Munyao among others and you get a complete orbirtuary signed in golden letters.
And as these ex-lords nurse political wounds, a new breed representing the brand Kenya are smiling all the way to the August House. And the message is clear: deliver or wembe ni ule ule in five years time. Our pride and congratulation to Ababu, Kones, Kabando wa Kabando et al.
With proper brains and no shortermism, we don't care who becomes the president. Kenyans have shown the rest of the world that they are in a class of their own. We want our motherland back from the scoundrels.
Meanwhile we at Kumekucha start keeping tabs on the new political faces without fear of favour and the acidic sensoring will not spare any face. No amount of juveline swearing and sweating can deter Kenyans from realizing their dreams with eyes singularly trained on the ultimate prize: SUCCESS.
Breaking News: Raila Reclaims Langata Seat
ODM's Raila Odinga is the MP-elect for Langata constituency and seemingly headed straight to the presidency of Kenya.Results just announced at Nyayo Stadium by the Langata ECK Returning Officer shows that Raila garnered 59,416 votes against his closest challenger Mr. Stanley Livondo of PNU who garnered 23,919 votes. Ms Stella Mbai of ODM-K emerged a distant third with 1342 votes. A large crowd of mostly Raila's supporters, including this blogger and some members of the ODM presidential campaign team , have kept vigil at the Nyayo Stadium tallying centre for the last 24 hours. There is a strong contingent of the dreaded paramilitary GSU and regular police providing security for the ECK returning officer and the various party agents.
There was initial speculation locally and internationally that the ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga would lose the parliamentary seat and therefore be lawfully disqualified from assuming the presidency which requires that the president must first be elected as an MP.
Since the vote counting started last night, there has been anxiety considering that Raila is President Kibaki's leading challenger and that there has been allegations of massive voter importation into Langata principally to frustrate his presidential bid.
Presidential results as at 16h45 local time show that Raila is steadily widening the gap as media tallying show Raila at 2.9m against Kibaki's 1.9m, while Kalonzo is trailing a distant third with 279,000 votes.
Most ODM MP elect have already started arriving in Nairobi in readiness of what Pentagon member and Eldoret North MP-elect says is "the inauguration of our candidate as the 4th President of the Republic of Kenya."
This blogger has not yet declared Raila the overall winner of the presidential poll, but all indications are that ODM will not only have a majority in the next parliament, it will most likely also be forming the next government.
Meanwhile disturbing news emanating from Kisii say that former legislator Jimmy Angwenyi has shot dead one person and seriously injured two others in his rural constituency in post election violence. The results or despute, if any, are still unknown. More on this to follow.
Sour Grapes Or Sound Analysis Of Who Will Win Presidency 2007?
Remember, respected political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi? This morning he did an obituary of the Kibaki presidency on NTV. Obviously this means that he believes that going by the results so far and the trends, Raila Odinga will emerge winner.
Quite strange coming from Ngunyi who after the referendum was one of President Kibaki’s main advisors. Some analysts suspect that this could be a case of sour grapes, because President Kibaki trashed advice from some of the best political minds in the country and stuck close to his family and golf buddies with no political experience like Joe Wanjui. In fact if he loses these elections many of these advisors will be vindicated.
Others agree wholeheartedly with Ngunyi’s view and see no way of Raila losing his widening lead on Kibaki. Raila supporters are even distributing SMS messages claiming that Peter Marangi has been hired to paint State House orange. Hat cheek!
P.S. Linah Chebii Kilimo despite her late “acrobatics” in the run up to the general elections (implying panic) appears to have made it back to parliament. The good news is that all indications are that the 10th parliament will have a record number of women legislators (and not only of the nominated kind).
Also significant is Mrs Kilimo’s party- Paul Kamlesh Pattni’s KENDA. A party that has a chance of gaining a high number of parliamentary seats. Which means that Mr Pattni (actually Hon Pattni) will see the inside of the 10th parliament even after losing the fierce battle for the Westlands seat which currently has Betty Tett disputing Fred Gumo votes over some very, very, suspicious results from one polling station which seems to have been fiddled around with. The two are the front runners for this parliamentary seat.
Other reports just in indicate that Daudi “Anglo Leasing” Mwiraria has lost. WOW!!! Stay tuned, Kenya’s angry voters are not done yet. If you have a weak heart I advice that you take a trip somewhere far from any access to news on Kenya and return after a week prepared for anything
HOT NEWS just in: Paul Muite defeated. Harun "the boss" Mwau wins in Kilome.
Quite strange coming from Ngunyi who after the referendum was one of President Kibaki’s main advisors. Some analysts suspect that this could be a case of sour grapes, because President Kibaki trashed advice from some of the best political minds in the country and stuck close to his family and golf buddies with no political experience like Joe Wanjui. In fact if he loses these elections many of these advisors will be vindicated.
Others agree wholeheartedly with Ngunyi’s view and see no way of Raila losing his widening lead on Kibaki. Raila supporters are even distributing SMS messages claiming that Peter Marangi has been hired to paint State House orange. Hat cheek!
P.S. Linah Chebii Kilimo despite her late “acrobatics” in the run up to the general elections (implying panic) appears to have made it back to parliament. The good news is that all indications are that the 10th parliament will have a record number of women legislators (and not only of the nominated kind).
Also significant is Mrs Kilimo’s party- Paul Kamlesh Pattni’s KENDA. A party that has a chance of gaining a high number of parliamentary seats. Which means that Mr Pattni (actually Hon Pattni) will see the inside of the 10th parliament even after losing the fierce battle for the Westlands seat which currently has Betty Tett disputing Fred Gumo votes over some very, very, suspicious results from one polling station which seems to have been fiddled around with. The two are the front runners for this parliamentary seat.
Other reports just in indicate that Daudi “Anglo Leasing” Mwiraria has lost. WOW!!! Stay tuned, Kenya’s angry voters are not done yet. If you have a weak heart I advice that you take a trip somewhere far from any access to news on Kenya and return after a week prepared for anything
HOT NEWS just in: Paul Muite defeated. Harun "the boss" Mwau wins in Kilome.
Attempted Rigging Reported in Kamukunji and Kajiado North Constituencies
Chaos have erupted in Kamkunji constituency after several ballot boxes were delivered into the tallying centre by police officers. Turn-out was very high in Kamkunji and the race appeared to be between ODM and PNU - with the latter heavily tipped to win. The vote tallying has been suspend as the ECK consults on what to do next.
In Kajiado North, former Education Minister George Saitoti has had to run for dear life after voters stoned him and accused him of delivering "sealed empty ballot boxes" with the intention to swing the vote in his favour. Young Maasai moran have been pictured chanting war-cries and vehemently indicating that they will not accept rigged elections results. Saitoti has had to contend with fierce competition from preacher turned politician Moses Ole Sakuda. Vote counting and tallying has been suspended indefinitely.
Meanwhile other significant loses are: Kibwezi's Kalembe Ndile, Cherangany's Kipruto Arap Kirwa and Kikuyu's Paul Muite. A total of 14 cabinet ministers have suffered heavy loses in the election - dealing President Kibaki's re-election a serious dent. Read more here. ODM is commanding a lead in the parliamentary seats race - more than 40 legislators already confirmed as ODM MPs.
In Kajiado North, former Education Minister George Saitoti has had to run for dear life after voters stoned him and accused him of delivering "sealed empty ballot boxes" with the intention to swing the vote in his favour. Young Maasai moran have been pictured chanting war-cries and vehemently indicating that they will not accept rigged elections results. Saitoti has had to contend with fierce competition from preacher turned politician Moses Ole Sakuda. Vote counting and tallying has been suspended indefinitely.
Meanwhile other significant loses are: Kibwezi's Kalembe Ndile, Cherangany's Kipruto Arap Kirwa and Kikuyu's Paul Muite. A total of 14 cabinet ministers have suffered heavy loses in the election - dealing President Kibaki's re-election a serious dent. Read more here. ODM is commanding a lead in the parliamentary seats race - more than 40 legislators already confirmed as ODM MPs.
Reactions on Biwott's Loss
I've just received the following comment from somebody who knows Nick Biwott very well;
Nicholas Biwott has lost. But I am sure, his wife will make it to the 10th parliament - and he must have seen it coming for him, so she enters instead. This man is really clever.
My Comment: Let's wait and see, as I have said, Kenyan voters are in a very very bad mood.
Nicholas Biwott has lost. But I am sure, his wife will make it to the 10th parliament - and he must have seen it coming for him, so she enters instead. This man is really clever.
My Comment: Let's wait and see, as I have said, Kenyan voters are in a very very bad mood.
Election Update: Shockwaves Galore As Clear Trend Begins To Emerge
As the election results continue to trickle in at a pace that most impatient Kenyans find to be too slow (but which is attributed to a record turn out in polling stations countrywide) some clear patterns are beginning to emerge.
Nicholas Biwott is out of parliament for the first time since the late 70s. Gideon Moi has also lost in Baringo Central. Other giants who have been felled so far include Njenga Karume, Mukhisa Kituyi, Moody Awori, George Saitoti, Simeon Nyachae, Musikari Kombo, and Mutahi Kagwe.
What I earlier referred to as the angry Kenyan voters is about to be played out before our very eyes in the next few hours as more election results begin to trickle in.
In my book Biwott’s exit is very good news but this good news has almost been wiped out by the entry into parliament of a man called Ephrahim Maina as the new legislator for Mathira. This gentleman was once called a cowboy contractor of the notorious Kirinyaga Construction. A man accused of grand corruption in the ministry of Roads and also one of the chief financiers of President Kibaki’s presidential campaign in 2002. (Need I say more?)
Early in 2006 I made the mistake in my analysis of saying here that retired President Moi would be a major force to reckon with in the Rift Valley. One of our readers in the Rift Valley mockingly told me to keep on dreaming which caused me to investigate further and I found that he had been absolutely right and I was indeed dreaming. The Kalenjin community seems to have firmly ignored all the pleas of the retired president and to get the message to him have started by voting out his favorite son, Gideon from Baringo Central which has to be the biggest slap in the face for Moi from the people he has served for so long.
As I had predicted, there are strong indications that PNU will have a drought of MPs in the 10th parliament. So far the party leading in Central is surprise, surprise—Safina. PNU is yet to land a single parliamentary seat anywhere in the country.
We will keep you posted.
Nicholas Biwott is out of parliament for the first time since the late 70s. Gideon Moi has also lost in Baringo Central. Other giants who have been felled so far include Njenga Karume, Mukhisa Kituyi, Moody Awori, George Saitoti, Simeon Nyachae, Musikari Kombo, and Mutahi Kagwe.
What I earlier referred to as the angry Kenyan voters is about to be played out before our very eyes in the next few hours as more election results begin to trickle in.
In my book Biwott’s exit is very good news but this good news has almost been wiped out by the entry into parliament of a man called Ephrahim Maina as the new legislator for Mathira. This gentleman was once called a cowboy contractor of the notorious Kirinyaga Construction. A man accused of grand corruption in the ministry of Roads and also one of the chief financiers of President Kibaki’s presidential campaign in 2002. (Need I say more?)
Early in 2006 I made the mistake in my analysis of saying here that retired President Moi would be a major force to reckon with in the Rift Valley. One of our readers in the Rift Valley mockingly told me to keep on dreaming which caused me to investigate further and I found that he had been absolutely right and I was indeed dreaming. The Kalenjin community seems to have firmly ignored all the pleas of the retired president and to get the message to him have started by voting out his favorite son, Gideon from Baringo Central which has to be the biggest slap in the face for Moi from the people he has served for so long.
As I had predicted, there are strong indications that PNU will have a drought of MPs in the 10th parliament. So far the party leading in Central is surprise, surprise—Safina. PNU is yet to land a single parliamentary seat anywhere in the country.
We will keep you posted.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
The Calm Before The Storm
Ladies and Gentlemen,
........................................the calm before the (political) storm in Kenya
Happy New Year!
Election Update: Raila Not On Langata Constituency Register
27th December 2007, 10h00 local time
Shock as Thousands of Names, including that of Raila Odinga, are found missing on ECK Register!
There was heightened tension this morning when thousands of voters were turned away at various polling stations in Langata constituency after their names were found missing on the voters register. Among those who were turned away were ODM Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga who immediately visited the ECK KICC office and lodged a complaint with Commissioner Jack Tumwa. According to Raila, most of the omitted names begin with letter A, O, R and W. He termed this omission regrettable and most unfortunate. The ECK, unable to explain this glaring mistake, has issued orders and fresh voters register specifically for Langata constituency was due to be re-printed. Interesting, Raila was accompanied by Westlands ODM aspirant Fred Gumo who complained of the same problems in his constituency.
International journalist from BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, traveling in a single convoy of SW Land Rovers, were seen filming and interviewing voters who had been turned away as well as those who were allowed to vote.
Earlier youths in Kibera had formed vigilante groups which set-up road blocks along the main Kibera Drive and all vehicles driving into Kibera were forced open the cars for a thorough search. Matatu passengers were also forced to alight and walk to their polling stations. There were very long queues from Kibera Primary (where Raila is registered to vote) as well as those of Olympic and Ayany Schools, estimated to be as long as 3 to 4 kilometers long! It is clear that voter turn-out will outstrip previous elections.
As at the time of posting this, Raila had not voted and the ECK were addressing an international press conference to address the problem in Kibera. Local press reported that both Mwai Kibaki and Kalonzo Musyoka had already cast his vote in Othaya.
This blogger arrived in Langata at 06h00 and voted at 10h00.
Shock as Thousands of Names, including that of Raila Odinga, are found missing on ECK Register!
There was heightened tension this morning when thousands of voters were turned away at various polling stations in Langata constituency after their names were found missing on the voters register. Among those who were turned away were ODM Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga who immediately visited the ECK KICC office and lodged a complaint with Commissioner Jack Tumwa. According to Raila, most of the omitted names begin with letter A, O, R and W. He termed this omission regrettable and most unfortunate. The ECK, unable to explain this glaring mistake, has issued orders and fresh voters register specifically for Langata constituency was due to be re-printed. Interesting, Raila was accompanied by Westlands ODM aspirant Fred Gumo who complained of the same problems in his constituency.
International journalist from BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, traveling in a single convoy of SW Land Rovers, were seen filming and interviewing voters who had been turned away as well as those who were allowed to vote.
Earlier youths in Kibera had formed vigilante groups which set-up road blocks along the main Kibera Drive and all vehicles driving into Kibera were forced open the cars for a thorough search. Matatu passengers were also forced to alight and walk to their polling stations. There were very long queues from Kibera Primary (where Raila is registered to vote) as well as those of Olympic and Ayany Schools, estimated to be as long as 3 to 4 kilometers long! It is clear that voter turn-out will outstrip previous elections.
As at the time of posting this, Raila had not voted and the ECK were addressing an international press conference to address the problem in Kibera. Local press reported that both Mwai Kibaki and Kalonzo Musyoka had already cast his vote in Othaya.
This blogger arrived in Langata at 06h00 and voted at 10h00.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Still Your Hearts
In a few hour's time we are going to the polls, my dear Kenyans. Rudyard Kipling has something to tell us this day:
If you can keep your head when all about you,
Are losing theirs and are blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream – and not make dreams your master;
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster,
And treat those two imposters just the same.
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute,
With sixty seconds worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything’s that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a man, my son.
Have peaceful elections tomorrow. And may the best man win.
How I Will Vote And Why
Plus Bizarre Incident of APs Found With Marked Kibaki Ballot Papers
In a few hours time, Kenyans go to the polls in what I have called the mother of all general elections.
If I get to the polling booth here’s what I will do and why.
My choice for councilor and MP will not make much sense to most of you but I can assure you that neither will go to ODM or PNU.
I have thought long and hard about my presidential vote. Those who have been here for a long time know that my preferred presidential candidate is not running. If John Githngo had run I woild have trooped over to the polling station where I am registered and I would have cast my vote for him even if I was sure I was the only Kenyan voting for him. You see contrary to what most Kenyans think a vote is NEVER lost or wasted. This thing is about your conscience. The big question you should always ask yourself is if you will live with our choice for the next 5 years.
Luckily my conscience still works (You can easily numb this critical faculty you know).
Despite the fact that I love my in-laws very much and despite the fact that I always seem to have a crash on Kikuyu ladies (like Mrs Kumekucha—even after all those years, PKW—many months ago, my good friend Sayra—the latest flame whom I feel so close to, my younger brother’s wife who is also Kikuyu accused me a few minutes ago of wanting to seat next to her—she was joking of course, etc.) I am not voting PNU. I woud never be able to live with myself if I did because a vote for PNU is a vote for Moi and Anglo Leasing and most of all it would be vote against John Githongo, a man who has risked his life and done Kenya proud.
Stevo comes from my tribe. But my vote for Ngilu in 1997 was the last time I will ever vote for tribal reasons. A man who hides in the toilet to avoid an important vote in parliament is not my idea of the courageous president we need to carry Kenya forward.
Personally I don’t like Raila and I have never liked him...
Read more
In a few hours time, Kenyans go to the polls in what I have called the mother of all general elections.
If I get to the polling booth here’s what I will do and why.
My choice for councilor and MP will not make much sense to most of you but I can assure you that neither will go to ODM or PNU.
I have thought long and hard about my presidential vote. Those who have been here for a long time know that my preferred presidential candidate is not running. If John Githngo had run I woild have trooped over to the polling station where I am registered and I would have cast my vote for him even if I was sure I was the only Kenyan voting for him. You see contrary to what most Kenyans think a vote is NEVER lost or wasted. This thing is about your conscience. The big question you should always ask yourself is if you will live with our choice for the next 5 years.
Luckily my conscience still works (You can easily numb this critical faculty you know).
Despite the fact that I love my in-laws very much and despite the fact that I always seem to have a crash on Kikuyu ladies (like Mrs Kumekucha—even after all those years, PKW—many months ago, my good friend Sayra—the latest flame whom I feel so close to, my younger brother’s wife who is also Kikuyu accused me a few minutes ago of wanting to seat next to her—she was joking of course, etc.) I am not voting PNU. I woud never be able to live with myself if I did because a vote for PNU is a vote for Moi and Anglo Leasing and most of all it would be vote against John Githongo, a man who has risked his life and done Kenya proud.
Stevo comes from my tribe. But my vote for Ngilu in 1997 was the last time I will ever vote for tribal reasons. A man who hides in the toilet to avoid an important vote in parliament is not my idea of the courageous president we need to carry Kenya forward.
Personally I don’t like Raila and I have never liked him...
Read more
A Dream About Kenya's President in 2008
" .... I dreamed last night ......I heard the clock at my wall count the hours and it was exactly midnight on this special night of December 27/28...... and I heard a voice telling me ......
.... "we are still counting the results of the Kenyan Elections but we have not yet decided who of the two candidates is the best to lead his country into a better future ..."
And then I see two faces - first the assuring one of Mwai Kibaki ..... and in the background I see the face of his wife Lucy -
And then - slowly - appears the face of Raila Odinga .........
But all of the sudden, the face of Raila Odinga is replaced by that of Dr. Robert Ouko ...... and at the end, they even both appear to be the same .......
And then I hear Robert Ouko's voice telling me: Trust me, whoever becomes the next President of our beloved country, he will make sure that justice will be done..........justice not only to me - but to all the others who died to save Kenya ............
I dreamed a dream last night ...................... but will it ever become reality ???????????
Guest post by Marianne Briner
.... "we are still counting the results of the Kenyan Elections but we have not yet decided who of the two candidates is the best to lead his country into a better future ..."
And then I see two faces - first the assuring one of Mwai Kibaki ..... and in the background I see the face of his wife Lucy -
And then - slowly - appears the face of Raila Odinga .........
But all of the sudden, the face of Raila Odinga is replaced by that of Dr. Robert Ouko ...... and at the end, they even both appear to be the same .......
And then I hear Robert Ouko's voice telling me: Trust me, whoever becomes the next President of our beloved country, he will make sure that justice will be done..........justice not only to me - but to all the others who died to save Kenya ............
I dreamed a dream last night ...................... but will it ever become reality ???????????
Guest post by Marianne Briner
An Election Like No Other
By Derek
Just after many of you will have read this post, Kenyans in their millions will troop to the ballot box for the most-eagerly awaited election in living memory. It will be an election like no other, an election that will be won, not by propaganda or illusions, but by amassing as many tribes as possible.
I have argued once and again on this blog that the best way to look at the 2007 General Elections will be the tribal linkages that will be won at the time the voters troop out to the ballot box.
Said bravely, there are many things that will be used by the Kenyan electorate to decide who wins the presidency and who will not. However, in the past one year, opinion polls have emerged to convince the electorate that certain leaders are up for it while others are not.
While ignoring a fact that it is a tribal vote, ODM supporters have over time dismissed the polls, embraced them, criticised others and at the time rubbished those that portrayed their leader Raila Odinga as losing or close to President Kibaki.
I do not fault the pollsters, but in the last one week, it has emerged that the pollsters, have been serving certain needs. Uhuru Kenyatta tore into the pollsters a day after Gallup International made their own findings. In fact, Gallup poll gave the best picture available at the particular moment – which the polls will be too close to call. The rest will be decided on the day of the election.
Now, to the election and the run-up that has witnessed some of the best electioneering Kenya has seen!
In the run-up to the ODM nominations, trouble that had been simmering over time, allegedly influenced by mistrust among the members who won the Referendum for them in 2005, came to the fore when the London ‘bonding’ trip aborted. To ODM, that was the start of their blurred vision to taking over the reins of the country from the incumbent. They went separate ways, and comically, Uhuru Kenyatta offered to support President Kibaki.
The withdrawal of Kanu president from the ODM fold simply made easy things hard and left William Ruto and Henry Kosgey as the only vocal men from the Kalenjin, (I insist on that) region of the Rift Valley. But within ODM itself, there was trouble and confusion in the way they held ‘endorsement’ campaigns around the country. It was comical and an abuse to common sense that five people vying for the same seat step onto the same podium and only proclaim that they are standing and tactfully organised to have Raila Odinga speak last.
When Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka offered a voice of dissent, what followed him was a ‘sacking’ allegedly by Raila Odinga who was determined to stop anybody critical to his ascension to power. Well, he was not even the party leader at that time. What followed was a threat by janitorial staff at the office of one of the top officials before Imanyara came to the rescue.
Raila, brave, strong with a near fanatical cult following from his Luo tribe is by no means a cheap stock to sell but many things have to be countered about his candidature.
He has on his side, people accused of grand corruption in the country, including the chairman Henry Kosgei. Kosgei and William Ruto talk about corruption, and the only reason they are free people, like Cyrus Jirongo, and Kamlesh Pattni, all gunning for elected posts, is at the mercy of former president Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki thereafter. It is a protection that that should value for years to come. Even Raila Odinga himself is not clean with the dodgy acquisition of the Kisumu Molasses plant.
If I am wrong in any way, someone please correct this. Raila Odinga could have used the Troon Report/Ouko Murder and even his words during the ODM break-up that Ruto is not clean, but he never said anything about corruption. Did he ever say anything about Robert Ouko? No. He was surrounded by the same people who were ‘allegedly’ linked to the disappearance and the death. Did he ever say anything about Nicholas Biwott and his ‘alleged’ involvement? No. Not even Moi’s government involvement.
Was Noah Arap Too near him? Yes. Franklin Bett was also in his camp and funny enough Sally Kosgey who was serving the government when it all happened was with his all the time. Then there is Charity Ngilu. Does it mean that she served the government all the five years only to realise at the last minute that she was serving the wrong government? No! It is all a joke.
And finally, the tribal groupings. Kibaki has to his side, Simeon Nyachae leading the Kisii front, Nicholas Biwott, Daniel Moi and his sons leading the Kalenjin front (and you would have heard the noise that comes from Raila and Ruto over that), and Kombo leading the Ford Kenya (a fact that has forced Kirwa to defect there) and obviously, the North Eastern front that is led by a few ministers serving in the current government.
As said before this is all about tribes and their friends! The Luo, Luhya and Ruto and Kosgei (western/Rift valley) vs. Kibaki, Nyachae, Mwaklwere and Kiraitu on the other end.
The choice is yours.
Just after many of you will have read this post, Kenyans in their millions will troop to the ballot box for the most-eagerly awaited election in living memory. It will be an election like no other, an election that will be won, not by propaganda or illusions, but by amassing as many tribes as possible.
I have argued once and again on this blog that the best way to look at the 2007 General Elections will be the tribal linkages that will be won at the time the voters troop out to the ballot box.
Said bravely, there are many things that will be used by the Kenyan electorate to decide who wins the presidency and who will not. However, in the past one year, opinion polls have emerged to convince the electorate that certain leaders are up for it while others are not.
While ignoring a fact that it is a tribal vote, ODM supporters have over time dismissed the polls, embraced them, criticised others and at the time rubbished those that portrayed their leader Raila Odinga as losing or close to President Kibaki.
I do not fault the pollsters, but in the last one week, it has emerged that the pollsters, have been serving certain needs. Uhuru Kenyatta tore into the pollsters a day after Gallup International made their own findings. In fact, Gallup poll gave the best picture available at the particular moment – which the polls will be too close to call. The rest will be decided on the day of the election.
Now, to the election and the run-up that has witnessed some of the best electioneering Kenya has seen!
In the run-up to the ODM nominations, trouble that had been simmering over time, allegedly influenced by mistrust among the members who won the Referendum for them in 2005, came to the fore when the London ‘bonding’ trip aborted. To ODM, that was the start of their blurred vision to taking over the reins of the country from the incumbent. They went separate ways, and comically, Uhuru Kenyatta offered to support President Kibaki.
The withdrawal of Kanu president from the ODM fold simply made easy things hard and left William Ruto and Henry Kosgey as the only vocal men from the Kalenjin, (I insist on that) region of the Rift Valley. But within ODM itself, there was trouble and confusion in the way they held ‘endorsement’ campaigns around the country. It was comical and an abuse to common sense that five people vying for the same seat step onto the same podium and only proclaim that they are standing and tactfully organised to have Raila Odinga speak last.
When Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka offered a voice of dissent, what followed him was a ‘sacking’ allegedly by Raila Odinga who was determined to stop anybody critical to his ascension to power. Well, he was not even the party leader at that time. What followed was a threat by janitorial staff at the office of one of the top officials before Imanyara came to the rescue.
Raila, brave, strong with a near fanatical cult following from his Luo tribe is by no means a cheap stock to sell but many things have to be countered about his candidature.
He has on his side, people accused of grand corruption in the country, including the chairman Henry Kosgei. Kosgei and William Ruto talk about corruption, and the only reason they are free people, like Cyrus Jirongo, and Kamlesh Pattni, all gunning for elected posts, is at the mercy of former president Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki thereafter. It is a protection that that should value for years to come. Even Raila Odinga himself is not clean with the dodgy acquisition of the Kisumu Molasses plant.
If I am wrong in any way, someone please correct this. Raila Odinga could have used the Troon Report/Ouko Murder and even his words during the ODM break-up that Ruto is not clean, but he never said anything about corruption. Did he ever say anything about Robert Ouko? No. He was surrounded by the same people who were ‘allegedly’ linked to the disappearance and the death. Did he ever say anything about Nicholas Biwott and his ‘alleged’ involvement? No. Not even Moi’s government involvement.
Was Noah Arap Too near him? Yes. Franklin Bett was also in his camp and funny enough Sally Kosgey who was serving the government when it all happened was with his all the time. Then there is Charity Ngilu. Does it mean that she served the government all the five years only to realise at the last minute that she was serving the wrong government? No! It is all a joke.
And finally, the tribal groupings. Kibaki has to his side, Simeon Nyachae leading the Kisii front, Nicholas Biwott, Daniel Moi and his sons leading the Kalenjin front (and you would have heard the noise that comes from Raila and Ruto over that), and Kombo leading the Ford Kenya (a fact that has forced Kirwa to defect there) and obviously, the North Eastern front that is led by a few ministers serving in the current government.
As said before this is all about tribes and their friends! The Luo, Luhya and Ruto and Kosgei (western/Rift valley) vs. Kibaki, Nyachae, Mwaklwere and Kiraitu on the other end.
The choice is yours.
Monday, December 24, 2007
SMS Christmas Texts
Today in the morning i send a christmas text to some of my friends, who i knew where their vote will go, with a small campaign text. I was curious in knowing their reactions if i had my vote in a camp they didn't support. To the ones on the PANUA way i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, a chungwa moja 27th and a maisha bora 2008. These were the replies i got:
thanx merry xmas to u too n happy panua 2008
Thank u my dear but i prefer to panua on 27th.Have a merry xmas too n a happy new year!
I also do wish u a merry xmas n a continuation of ur job in 2007.Vote wisely n rememba 2 put in a leader who wil cntinue letin equity grw in heaps n boundz.
Eee na kazi iendelee.Naskia uko nyayo stadium
Wish u a lovely christmas galfriend,the very best God has in store 4 u.In 2008,kazi iendelee with greater momentum.Niko waks saa hii,na kazi inaendelea;-)
Tupatane kwa sanduku!.MERRY CHRISTMAS DEAR GAL & A 2008 filled with hope & PLENTY.AMANI.
Am nt takin that politely.
Meri xmas 2 lakini kazi iendelee sababu ishaanza my dear.wacha raila akule kisu kwanza
I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, a Mwenge 27th na kazi iendelee mwaka 2008
A merry xmas 2 u 2!Maisha bora(grrhhh, that is a recipe 4 disaster!). KAZI IENDELEE
I also do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a wise choice at elections.Na kazi iendelee in 2008!
Yeah you too. Lakini wewe ni nani my dear?
CHUNGWA'? No! I dnt want to believe that! Have a mary-Chris-mas
Jesus ws born to lighten our loads.This Christmas don't ask for a light load,ask 4 a strong back.U always hav Jesus! MERRY X-MAS! N vote Kibaki on 27th.
After tryin 2 papanua ur msg,i finally wish u merry xmas n a kazi iendelee year with betta fruits.
*****
To the ones ODM way i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, Emillio 27th and a Kazi iendele 2008. These were the replies i got:
I thot u eat orange cake like me?
Hellooz what a suprise.u 2 dear hav a merry xmas & be wanned that Deadly mountain flu known as PNU which affects the brain has been reported in central kenya.The region is under quarantine.Pple in other parts of kenya are advised to take ODM pills 1 full orange for 7 days to avoid infection.happy New yr.
Thx 4 the txt.as 4 2008 ni chungwa 1 maisha bora.mabadiliko na RAILA.
Thank you for the sms. Me raila xmas and agwambo new year.
SHINDWE
*****
Then there are those who like me dont care much if its Kibaki, Raila or Kalonzo, i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a happy new 2008.on 27th Matiba will get my appreciation vote for what he did in the 1990s. These are the replies i got:
Desparate for votes frm sex workers, Kibaki has now declared Koinange Street a ful District.. Ati ndio kazi iendelee.
Thank u dear,Merry Xmas too n a blessed 2008.
****************************
****************************
All in all my fellow Kenyans, whoever wins the elections remember that life will have to go on and eventually its us the people who will determine if will have a better Kenya or not.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!
thanx merry xmas to u too n happy panua 2008
Thank u my dear but i prefer to panua on 27th.Have a merry xmas too n a happy new year!
I also do wish u a merry xmas n a continuation of ur job in 2007.Vote wisely n rememba 2 put in a leader who wil cntinue letin equity grw in heaps n boundz.
Eee na kazi iendelee.Naskia uko nyayo stadium
Wish u a lovely christmas galfriend,the very best God has in store 4 u.In 2008,kazi iendelee with greater momentum.Niko waks saa hii,na kazi inaendelea;-)
Tupatane kwa sanduku!.MERRY CHRISTMAS DEAR GAL & A 2008 filled with hope & PLENTY.AMANI.
Am nt takin that politely.
Meri xmas 2 lakini kazi iendelee sababu ishaanza my dear.wacha raila akule kisu kwanza
I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, a Mwenge 27th na kazi iendelee mwaka 2008
A merry xmas 2 u 2!Maisha bora(grrhhh, that is a recipe 4 disaster!). KAZI IENDELEE
I also do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a wise choice at elections.Na kazi iendelee in 2008!
Yeah you too. Lakini wewe ni nani my dear?
CHUNGWA'? No! I dnt want to believe that! Have a mary-Chris-mas
Jesus ws born to lighten our loads.This Christmas don't ask for a light load,ask 4 a strong back.U always hav Jesus! MERRY X-MAS! N vote Kibaki on 27th.
After tryin 2 papanua ur msg,i finally wish u merry xmas n a kazi iendelee year with betta fruits.
*****
To the ones ODM way i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, Emillio 27th and a Kazi iendele 2008. These were the replies i got:
I thot u eat orange cake like me?
Hellooz what a suprise.u 2 dear hav a merry xmas & be wanned that Deadly mountain flu known as PNU which affects the brain has been reported in central kenya.The region is under quarantine.Pple in other parts of kenya are advised to take ODM pills 1 full orange for 7 days to avoid infection.happy New yr.
Thx 4 the txt.as 4 2008 ni chungwa 1 maisha bora.mabadiliko na RAILA.
Thank you for the sms. Me raila xmas and agwambo new year.
SHINDWE
*****
Then there are those who like me dont care much if its Kibaki, Raila or Kalonzo, i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a happy new 2008.on 27th Matiba will get my appreciation vote for what he did in the 1990s. These are the replies i got:
Desparate for votes frm sex workers, Kibaki has now declared Koinange Street a ful District.. Ati ndio kazi iendelee.
Thank u dear,Merry Xmas too n a blessed 2008.
****************************
****************************
All in all my fellow Kenyans, whoever wins the elections remember that life will have to go on and eventually its us the people who will determine if will have a better Kenya or not.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!
My Holiday Wishes To And Appreciation Of Kumekuchans
| The year is drawing to a close. 2007 has been an excitement- packed year mainly due to the elections that are due in a couple days. My interaction with each one of you has been something that has left me a better person. It has been an interaction that I can call fruitful albeit fiery at times. It is with this in mind that I take this opportunity to show my appreciation to you all. As we usher in the New Year, I am seeking forgiveness from anyone that I may have hurt in any of my animated comments. It has never been my intention to hurt anyone, no, never. I have tried (may be without success sometimes) to respect each one here and elsewhere and that is why I am explaining myself. Likewise, I expect respect from all those I respect. I still hold the same opinions I have had all along and will continue to hold them. I once again express my respect for each one of you and their opinions. I wish all of you a merry Christmas, a very beautiful 2008 and of course victory in the elections. Danlieve Where did you go? I hope to see you around more often next year. Kalamari You are my guy Kalamari, believe it or not. I have enjoyed each comment by you. We may have had one or two stand-offs but believe you me I cherished all you had to say here. Your humor always left me in stitches. The way you blend that with serious stuff like those Italians and our little sisters in Malindi cannot go without mention. It is for that reason that I am wishing you more happiness and more importantly, prosperity. Derek I think I have told you everything there was to say in private. You have been my BEST FRIEND in Kumekucha. Your grasp of issues and belief in yourself are what distinguish you. I have enjoyed everything we have shared and if there is someone who has benefited from your contribution here, it is Vikii. Once again I am wishing you and your family a merry Christmas and beautiful times ahead. One love Derek! PKW Wewe ni wangu na unajua. Ha-ha-ha. You are in a class of your own. Like I told you and as you know that I don’t lie, you have been one of those who keep me coming back to Kumekucha. You have been such a blessing here. I don’t believe your pride is all you have. You have much more than that lady. Believe you me major success is awaiting you. I am wishing you a very enjoyable festive season lakini ukumbuke Sio Lazima. I know you have decided to chillax but I hope to see a rejuvenated PKW here next year. Chris And who are you?—Kidding. Thank you very much Chris for giving us a forum to air our views. That was very kind of you. You know where me and you fall out, don’t you? I will lobby for your appointment as Dr. Mutua’s replacement. You are a smart spin doctor bro. I have admired the pride you have in your family especially H. Once again say hi to them and tell them I wish them more happiness. Please do not run away after losing the elections-ha ha ha. Merry Christmas. Luke Wewe ni mtu wangu. I want you to live to be the oldest person in the world. You are a NICE person Luke. I have at times gotten highstrikali accompanD by Essau ukhunayanyi, sorry I only instated that jokly because you are my cuSin. Bro you are an amazingly cool guy. Let me go straight to the point without bleading with you; Thank you for being the neutralizing person in this blog. You are one of those I will miss most if I quit reading Kumekucha. It is for that reason that I am wishing you a long life full of happiness. Taabu Do you have an idea why I called you Mwalimu? Because that is what you are. You have not been an ordinary e-cop but a fatherly one. Thank you so much for being my BB. I know I have been wayward at times but you always had a way of reigning me in. You are the most valuable blogger here Taabu and I am not flattering you. You are not only that but also a friend to me. Mungu akipenda tutagongana and don’t forget you will be the Logistics Manager in my 2012 campaigns. I wish you and your family very happy holidays and prosperity. May God bless you. Sayra We need many Sayras here. Thank you so much for sticking around. I am embarrassed the first comment I read from you was an attack on my person. I am proud your last comment on the blog is an endorsement of my views. That just shows how much we have come to understand each other. I am wishing you success in all your endeavors. And by the way, ummmhhhh—never mind. Karol Acha kupotea hivo wewe. Merry Christmas and happy new year. Ritch No doubt my second BB after Taabu. You have always been there to draw our attention to the things that matter like the HIV/ AIDS scourge and integrity in both our personal and public lives. You have on a number of times gotten me asking whether I am on the right path.I wish you and, why not, your wife, a very happy life. Have a very happy holiday and remember that Kenya needs you. Thank you bro. Sue I know what you think but believe me Susana, you are one of those I respect for taking a position. I like the way you have stood up to be counted. I am wishing you and your family a merry Xmas and I hope to see you back in the hood in January regardless of the outcome of the election. Sawa? Phil Wewe ni mtu wangu wa nguvu. You have an unshakable faith and I am very proud of that. Our clashes here and there may appear to some people as animosity but will you believe me you are one of those I hold dearest to me in Kumekucha? Remember you promised me some Nyam chom and I want to have that immediately after the announcement of the election results. You just remember you have to top it up with 48 bottles of Tusker Malt—They have those in Kiboko pub ha ha ha. Anyway bro, keep the faith. If all young people were as politically aware as you, Kenya would be miles ahead. It is clear to me you love your country and that’s major. I wish you and those dear to you very happy lives. Eh and by the way, if those ODM guys don’t pay you, I have Mutula’s phone number. Sawa? All The other Friends I used Chris’ list of contributors. You are all awesome people. I wish each one of you a merry Christmas and a happy new year. All Anonymouses, tafadhali tafuteni majina, ama vipi? |
The Day After: Friday, 28th December, 2007
I have a racking headache this morning. Yesterday was a tough, nay, gruelling day. Yeah, and so much so. It was Election Day; the most competitive, much anticipated issue-based election since independence.
I was among the last people at the polling station having stood in the hot sun for almost half a day. Yeah, and the turn out was something to behold. Scores of people stood in queues, braving the hot sun, to ultimately cast their votes!
I hardly slept a wink last night. My neighbours next door (three bachelors who stay in the same room) just wouldn’t let me. Their high-pitched radios (as they kept count of the number of votes from polling stations the country over, thanks to the leading channel), raucous laughs, guttural voices and frequent screams as beer bottles fell to the floor, were just tormenting.
Everything is quiet this morning save for the throbbing headache between my ears. The throbbing is as if tangible. And for no apparent reason at all, my heart is pounding savagely (as if I am climbing a precipitous mountain).
Now I start recalling. A day before the polls, I wagered my friend Mark ksh 5000/- that my choice for president would win the polls with a landslide victory. I was more than confident that this would be the case. Then, where is this jittery feeling coming from?
If my choice for president does not win the elections, then, I'll have to part with my precious five thao. Not a pretty picture at all.
But, then, who says he will not win.
Just as this thought takes its form in my mind, two pictures (so vivid and life-like) suddenly cascade in my mind’s eye; one from left to right, the other from right to left.
The two pictures are those of Raila and Kibaki. Both of them are smiling. In fact, one of them is grinning like a Cheshire cat. Their lips are moving as if trying to tell me something.
I strain my inner ears but fail to hear anything.
I look at the wall clock. It is 6:30am. I think it is time to put all my fears to rest. I ‘trudge’ to my wall unit and almost simultaneously switch on both my TV and radio.
The news on radio and TV is replete and inundated with election-related news. Reports are coming in from all parts of the country. The number of votes each candidate has received in various parts of the republic is mentioned.
My heart lurches. No, no, what I am hearing can’t be true. Those unflattering number of votes can’t be those of my chosen president. No. Never.
Almost instantly I decide what I‘ll spend the rest of the day doing.
“Counting the votes. Yes, that’s what I am going to do the rest of the day. I can’t leave anything to chance, can I?”
I also decide to call on my neighbours later in the day to compare my notes with that of their vigil last night.
I fetch a pen and some foolscaps and get ready for the task ahead of me. Oh, I had almost forgotten. I usually take a hot cup of coffee at around this time of the day. And today it will do me a whole world of good.
A steaming cup of coffee.
I was among the last people at the polling station having stood in the hot sun for almost half a day. Yeah, and the turn out was something to behold. Scores of people stood in queues, braving the hot sun, to ultimately cast their votes!
I hardly slept a wink last night. My neighbours next door (three bachelors who stay in the same room) just wouldn’t let me. Their high-pitched radios (as they kept count of the number of votes from polling stations the country over, thanks to the leading channel), raucous laughs, guttural voices and frequent screams as beer bottles fell to the floor, were just tormenting.
Everything is quiet this morning save for the throbbing headache between my ears. The throbbing is as if tangible. And for no apparent reason at all, my heart is pounding savagely (as if I am climbing a precipitous mountain).
Now I start recalling. A day before the polls, I wagered my friend Mark ksh 5000/- that my choice for president would win the polls with a landslide victory. I was more than confident that this would be the case. Then, where is this jittery feeling coming from?
If my choice for president does not win the elections, then, I'll have to part with my precious five thao. Not a pretty picture at all.
But, then, who says he will not win.
Just as this thought takes its form in my mind, two pictures (so vivid and life-like) suddenly cascade in my mind’s eye; one from left to right, the other from right to left.
The two pictures are those of Raila and Kibaki. Both of them are smiling. In fact, one of them is grinning like a Cheshire cat. Their lips are moving as if trying to tell me something.
I strain my inner ears but fail to hear anything.
I look at the wall clock. It is 6:30am. I think it is time to put all my fears to rest. I ‘trudge’ to my wall unit and almost simultaneously switch on both my TV and radio.
The news on radio and TV is replete and inundated with election-related news. Reports are coming in from all parts of the country. The number of votes each candidate has received in various parts of the republic is mentioned.
My heart lurches. No, no, what I am hearing can’t be true. Those unflattering number of votes can’t be those of my chosen president. No. Never.
Almost instantly I decide what I‘ll spend the rest of the day doing.
“Counting the votes. Yes, that’s what I am going to do the rest of the day. I can’t leave anything to chance, can I?”
I also decide to call on my neighbours later in the day to compare my notes with that of their vigil last night.
I fetch a pen and some foolscaps and get ready for the task ahead of me. Oh, I had almost forgotten. I usually take a hot cup of coffee at around this time of the day. And today it will do me a whole world of good.
A steaming cup of coffee.
Elections 2007: What Consequences?
As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.
If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?
If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?
How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?
What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?
And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.
Read more
If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?
If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?
How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?
What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?
And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.
Read more
Vindication Is At Hand
Guest post by Sam Okello
Fellow Kenyans,
In just three days, the journey the Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga started in the eighties will enter a new phase. With his election to the presidency, a matter approved from on high, the nation will embark on the final leg of a chapter that should have closed in the sixties, immediately after independence, but never did. I'm talking about national reconciliation and the creation of a nation that works for everyone.
What we've witnessed in the years since President Jomo Kenyatta took oath to lead the nation to prosperity has been the unequal distribution of national resources and the selective development of pockets of the nation. The result is that vast areas of Kenya remain sinfully underdeveloped, while others wallow in wealth and boast some of the richest Kenyans.
But what is more disturbing is the increasing tribalization of the nation. The shameless manner in which President Kibaki constituted his Cabinet and other key appointments is a case in point. He was obviously acting in the same way Presidents Kenyatta and Moi acted when it was their turn. The sad thing is, with President Kibaki, a man Kenyans voted for in droves, suffering wananchi finally decided that unrepresentative governments should not lead Kenya. He betrayed the trust, just like Moi and kenyatta before him. And so in three days Kenyans will vote to right the wrongs that have been allowed to go on for forty years.
When that happens, there's only one word that can and will describe the change that will have taken place. VINDICATION. It will be a vindication of the ideals our freedom fighters fought for. A vindication of the Kenya Waruru Kanja thought was possible when he called on us to end the politics of elimination. A vindication of the ideals Bishop Muge tirelessly advocated before his life was painfully snapped out. A vindication of the ideals Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko and JM and Masinde Muliro were killed trying to help take root in Kenya. Indeed, it will be a vindication of the one thing Kenyans have known all along...that when all is said and done, deep down we all long to live in peace and harmony one with another.
That's why about three weeks ago I dared to say that the Hon. Raila Odinga was...
Read more
Fellow Kenyans,
In just three days, the journey the Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga started in the eighties will enter a new phase. With his election to the presidency, a matter approved from on high, the nation will embark on the final leg of a chapter that should have closed in the sixties, immediately after independence, but never did. I'm talking about national reconciliation and the creation of a nation that works for everyone.
What we've witnessed in the years since President Jomo Kenyatta took oath to lead the nation to prosperity has been the unequal distribution of national resources and the selective development of pockets of the nation. The result is that vast areas of Kenya remain sinfully underdeveloped, while others wallow in wealth and boast some of the richest Kenyans.
But what is more disturbing is the increasing tribalization of the nation. The shameless manner in which President Kibaki constituted his Cabinet and other key appointments is a case in point. He was obviously acting in the same way Presidents Kenyatta and Moi acted when it was their turn. The sad thing is, with President Kibaki, a man Kenyans voted for in droves, suffering wananchi finally decided that unrepresentative governments should not lead Kenya. He betrayed the trust, just like Moi and kenyatta before him. And so in three days Kenyans will vote to right the wrongs that have been allowed to go on for forty years.
When that happens, there's only one word that can and will describe the change that will have taken place. VINDICATION. It will be a vindication of the ideals our freedom fighters fought for. A vindication of the Kenya Waruru Kanja thought was possible when he called on us to end the politics of elimination. A vindication of the ideals Bishop Muge tirelessly advocated before his life was painfully snapped out. A vindication of the ideals Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko and JM and Masinde Muliro were killed trying to help take root in Kenya. Indeed, it will be a vindication of the one thing Kenyans have known all along...that when all is said and done, deep down we all long to live in peace and harmony one with another.
That's why about three weeks ago I dared to say that the Hon. Raila Odinga was...
Read more
Sunday, December 23, 2007
The ODM Is A Haven Of Fallacies
The ODM has perfected the concept of Cognitive Dissonance. They preach water and drink wine. According o them, their pet subjects of tribalism and corruption are very flexible concepts open to different interpretations. They preach tribalism in all their rallies and turn around to accuse their opponents of the same. They talk ‘very seriously’ about their determination to fight corruption without telling us exactly how they will bring to book those within their ranks who are themselves ‘masters of the game’. One is described as being corrupt as long as he/she is not in their camp, but the moment they cross over, they are cleansed by the forgiving blood of Raila Odinga and his five angels in the Pentagon. One good example of this is Musalia Mudavadi’s involvement in the country’s biggest scam ever, the Goldenberg fraud. Mudavadi was Raila’s trump card in the pre Kibaki-Tosha Rainbow Alliance. When he chickened out of the race and endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta’s candidacy, Raila Odinga hit him hard on the Goldenberg scam. “Mudavadi was the Finance minister in 1993. He first paid out the first Shs 5.8 billion in export compensation and then the Shs13.5 billion. I know what I am talking about. I stand for the truth and the VP and the president should come out and prove me wrong.” These are not my words, they are Raila Odinga’s on the evening of November 16th 2002. He said these words at Meru’s Kinoru stadium in the company of JJ Kamotho, William Ntimama and Matthew Adams Karauri in defense of Prof. George Saitoti whom he had taken to court over the same matter earlier on. On 10th December 2007, he gave not a very different recitation the only difference being the replacement of Mudavadi with Prof. Saitoti. "We have a President who sees ahead. He is not a tribalist but a visionary. That is why we said "Kibaki Tosha,” Raila Odinga said this on July 18th 2003. The moment Kibaki fired him from his cabinet, he became a tribalist. I said here a while ago that someone who wants to be the president of a country like Kenya must have both the uprightness and the sufficient maturity to acknowledge that you can never re-write history no matter how hard you try. It is a pretty bad idea for a presidential candidate to shift positions at will because he is definitely going to bounce into a hell lot of problems sooner or later. |
Kenya's Police Commissioner Imposes 'Curfew' in KICC
Kenya Police Commissioner Major-General Mohammed Hussein Ali has reportedly issued orders purporting to impose what is literally a curfew within and around KICC during the period 28-29th December at which time the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) is due to officially announce the winner of the presidential elections. Meanwhile, Government spokesman announced that 28th December has been gazetted to be a Public Holiday; without necessarily informing the public that movement within and around KICC on 28th December has been 'outlawed' like the police commissioner claims.It is instructive to recall that sometime in October this year, Maj-Gen Ali unashamedly banned the singing of the National Anthem of the
Maj-Gen Ali, a career military officer, ought to take some lessons in public administration as well as obtain an understanding of what democracy is all about. Not only are these so called decrees a blatant transgression of human rights and freedom of assembly, they are also highly unconstitutional. Perhaps if Kenya was a police state, then we could begin to understand where Maj-Gen Ali was coming from.
Interestingly, Raila Odinga has repeatedly quoted the lyrics of the national anthem in many of his charged campaign rallies - something that the ODM-K candidate has attempted to emulate in ODM-K's modest Uhuru Park Rally this afternoon with mixed reactions.
Mwiraria, Biwott UK Visa Ban: Yet Another Terrible Embarrassment for Kenya
When the Standard published an exclusive report on 21st December 2007 that Cabinet Minister David Mwiraria and the immediate former Keiyo South MP, Mr Nicholas Biwott, had been expressly barred from traveling to the United Kingdom after their visas were rescinded, the matter was quickly swept out of the limelight by presidential opinion polls that have been raining on Kenyans. Even the Sunday newspapers that purport to carry extensive news and political analysis have failed to publish on this scandalous event. If the truth be told, the news could not have come at a worse time for President Kibaki's PNU coalition.
Considering that both Mwiraria and Biwott travel on Kenyan diplomatic passports (see the 'D' preceding their passport number below), the visa ban is a most embarrassing drawback for Kenya as a country and also for President Kibaki who is trailing his main challenger in the opinion polls with less than a week to the general elections. You can be sure, ODM is working on this and clip will be aired on TV prime time as "advertisers announcement" before the polls.
According to the Standard report, a RED ALERT travel advisory has been circulated to five international airlines that depart from the JKI Airport Nairobi with the names of four prominent individuals including the Charterhouse Bank MD, Mr Sanjay Kumar Ramniklal and that of his brother Manoj Ramniklal Panacha Shah of Kingsway Tyres. The two brother used to run Charterhouse bank (currently under CBK management and under receivership) that was last year implicated in massive tax-evasion that has yet to find any successful conviction in courts.
Airline sources in JKIA confirmed that they received an ‘Immigration Alert’ from the British High Commission in Nairobi informing them of the cancellation of UK visas for the four individuals. In a letter headed "Alert" to the airlines, the Commission stated: "The above named were issued with UK visas. However, these visas have now been cancelled and are no longer valid for travel to the United Kingdom. "I would be grateful if an alert be placed on your systems and the relevant staff be notified. Please contact the Visa Section at the British High Commission immediately on the above numbers if a date of proposed travel to the UK is known, or if they are encountered at the airport". The letter contained the full names of the four individuals and their passport numbers; Biwott (D007***), Manoj (B093***), Mwiraria (D008***) and Sanjay (B068***)
Meanwhile British diplomatic sources in Nairobi stressed that the decision had ‘nothing to do with Kenyan domestic politics’ and had come after ‘extensive legal and ministerial consultations’ in Whitehall. "Early this year we decided to make full use of our immigration rules to deny individuals entry to the U.K. in full support of efforts to combat corruption here," High Commission Spokeswoman Charlie Williams told the Standard.
Mwiraria, Kenya's Environment Minister, resigned (read sacked) from the cabinet early 2006 after he was linked to the unresolved Anglo-Leasing scam, but was re-appointed mid-2007. Anglo Leasing involved the payment of more than $250 million in government funds to non-existent firms for high-tech 'terrorist proof ' passports and police forensics labs which forced the resignation of three cabinet ministers and drawing criticism from donors concerned Kibaki's administration was failing in its declared war on graft. This scandal forced the resignations (read sackings) of Messrs. David Mwiraria, Chris Murungaru and Kiraitu Murungi after Githongo, through BBC, aired tape recordings that implicated Mwiraria and Murungi. Despite opposition from donors and opposition politicians, the latter two have since been reinstated. The Vice President - Moody Awori - although a signatory to one of the contracts, escaped 'resigning' by the skin of his teeth because the civil society and opposition MPs could not master enough pressure to force his sacking.
Nicholas Biwott, a powerful minister in the previous KANU government of President Daniel Arap Moi, was the prime suspect in the 1990 unresolved murder of foreign minister, Robert Ouko. Biwott was also tied to some corruption cases in the 1990s including the multi million and also unresolved Goldenberg scam.
Kenya is a former British colony and the two countries maintain strong historical, diplomatic and bilateral partnership. Another of Kibaki's inner circle, former Internal Security minister Chris Ndarathi Murungaru also had his British and USA visas revoked in 2005 and has filed a suit in a London court to challenge the revocations.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
PNU Implausible Assumptions
Guest post By John Maina
Many have banked and presumed that the incumbent will get all the votes in the voters rich Gema region and that Raila chances of gaining any significant votes are miniature. The assumptions is that unlike past elections, this time around their will be an almost 90% turn out in this region and these votes are securely bagged by the incumbent translating into a walk over. Their has even been talks that the Gema region gives the incumbent unassailable edge against Raila as the electorate will turn up in their masses to solidify and protect the presidency leaving the region.
Albeit tribal and retrogressive to blow ones own horn over such a strategy, I believe it is a myth and may turn out to be the last straw that broke the camels back for the incumbent, as it is likely to backfire and disappoint. The failure of this strategy will eclipse all other stillborn PNU strategies such as the dishing out of districts, fake Muslim MOU, Raila’s unelectability, unconvincing economy growth etcetera.
Tellingly, there are some latent indicators that the above strategy is not working and is doomed to fail with only a few days to the election.
Firstly, the incumbent campaign and rallies in his stronghold i.e. Gema region have failed to attract big crowds yet you would expect his supporters to be out in masses to show their solidarity particularly with the threat of the presidency likely to leave their region. The crowds present in these rallies cannot be compared anywhere near to the mammoth rallies recently addressed by Raila in Kisumu and Homa bay his stronghold and some parts of the rift valley.
However, some may argue that Raila has applied similar strategy, which might also backfire on him. But this view is contradicted by his popularity in the region as the crowds in these rallies testify. Another fallacy argument is that crowds do not equate to votes or turnout but as the 2002 elections and referendum crowds indicated many are in for a shock. This has clearly been confirmed by both the genuine and sham opinion polls published in the past few months continuously highlighting Raila’s popularity. Arguments that idealness, noisemaking ‘domo’ and hooliganism in Raila’s stronghold lead to high turnout in rallies should be ignored for they are just myopic and tribal.
Secondly, Just like in the past, voter’s apathy within Gema region is still predominant. Despite high voters registration this does not collate into high turn out and is unlikely to be any different this time round. This is mainly due to voter’s disenfranchisement caused by arrogance and assumptions by those in power that majority of the electorate in the region have benefited from the so-called economical growth. Many may refuse to vote or vote for someone else as a protest.
Thirdly, some of the youths in this region who consist of a large number are also unlikely to vote for PNU and the incumbent as they are seen to represent old men, the status quo and the bourgeois of Kenyan society, which many abhor and blame for the socioeconomic plunder. Importantly, the youths do not cling onto the outdated and disempowering post colonial mentality of tribalism, tribal supremacy and allegiance
Fourthly, still afresh in the minds the electorates, is the brutal experience on the hands of Mungiki and state security war. Such experiences do not win votes but further alienate innocent people to the disadvantage of the incumbent.
Significantly, who has not witnessed the ongoing and embarrassing infighting amongst PNU affiliates and their members? The bickering has been played out in the presence of the incumbent and mainly in the Gema region. Such actions have resulted in disorganized and unpredictable campaigns and rallies. This is a put off to some voters, which may keep there away for fear of violence during the Election Day or even vote for somebody else.
Kalonzo’s factor and the recent slapping of a second individual by the incumbent wife further jolts the assumption that it will be a walk over for the incumbent in the Gema region. The former is seen as a compromise candidate and level headed. For those that cannot stand the incumbent or mention of Raila may cast their lot with Kalonzo.
It is also worth noting that intermarriages between the Gema community and others will also play a part in the former voting for another candidate rather than the incumbent.
Lastly, the fear of isolation from the rest of Kenya by some within Gema might persuade them to vote otherwise or not even go to vote. The referendum experience is still fresh in many people minds some who have seen little for supporting the incumbent during that period.
Thus, it is only fair to say that its unlikely that the expected high voters turn out in the Gema region will come to pass and if it does, it will not entirely be to the advantage of the incumbent over his main rival Raila. It is also true that the Gema vote is a lot more fluid this time round than ever.
The writer is a member of Kenya Capital Investment Group and can be reached at; www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Many have banked and presumed that the incumbent will get all the votes in the voters rich Gema region and that Raila chances of gaining any significant votes are miniature. The assumptions is that unlike past elections, this time around their will be an almost 90% turn out in this region and these votes are securely bagged by the incumbent translating into a walk over. Their has even been talks that the Gema region gives the incumbent unassailable edge against Raila as the electorate will turn up in their masses to solidify and protect the presidency leaving the region.
Albeit tribal and retrogressive to blow ones own horn over such a strategy, I believe it is a myth and may turn out to be the last straw that broke the camels back for the incumbent, as it is likely to backfire and disappoint. The failure of this strategy will eclipse all other stillborn PNU strategies such as the dishing out of districts, fake Muslim MOU, Raila’s unelectability, unconvincing economy growth etcetera.
Tellingly, there are some latent indicators that the above strategy is not working and is doomed to fail with only a few days to the election.
Firstly, the incumbent campaign and rallies in his stronghold i.e. Gema region have failed to attract big crowds yet you would expect his supporters to be out in masses to show their solidarity particularly with the threat of the presidency likely to leave their region. The crowds present in these rallies cannot be compared anywhere near to the mammoth rallies recently addressed by Raila in Kisumu and Homa bay his stronghold and some parts of the rift valley.
However, some may argue that Raila has applied similar strategy, which might also backfire on him. But this view is contradicted by his popularity in the region as the crowds in these rallies testify. Another fallacy argument is that crowds do not equate to votes or turnout but as the 2002 elections and referendum crowds indicated many are in for a shock. This has clearly been confirmed by both the genuine and sham opinion polls published in the past few months continuously highlighting Raila’s popularity. Arguments that idealness, noisemaking ‘domo’ and hooliganism in Raila’s stronghold lead to high turnout in rallies should be ignored for they are just myopic and tribal.
Secondly, Just like in the past, voter’s apathy within Gema region is still predominant. Despite high voters registration this does not collate into high turn out and is unlikely to be any different this time round. This is mainly due to voter’s disenfranchisement caused by arrogance and assumptions by those in power that majority of the electorate in the region have benefited from the so-called economical growth. Many may refuse to vote or vote for someone else as a protest.
Thirdly, some of the youths in this region who consist of a large number are also unlikely to vote for PNU and the incumbent as they are seen to represent old men, the status quo and the bourgeois of Kenyan society, which many abhor and blame for the socioeconomic plunder. Importantly, the youths do not cling onto the outdated and disempowering post colonial mentality of tribalism, tribal supremacy and allegiance
Fourthly, still afresh in the minds the electorates, is the brutal experience on the hands of Mungiki and state security war. Such experiences do not win votes but further alienate innocent people to the disadvantage of the incumbent.
Significantly, who has not witnessed the ongoing and embarrassing infighting amongst PNU affiliates and their members? The bickering has been played out in the presence of the incumbent and mainly in the Gema region. Such actions have resulted in disorganized and unpredictable campaigns and rallies. This is a put off to some voters, which may keep there away for fear of violence during the Election Day or even vote for somebody else.
Kalonzo’s factor and the recent slapping of a second individual by the incumbent wife further jolts the assumption that it will be a walk over for the incumbent in the Gema region. The former is seen as a compromise candidate and level headed. For those that cannot stand the incumbent or mention of Raila may cast their lot with Kalonzo.
It is also worth noting that intermarriages between the Gema community and others will also play a part in the former voting for another candidate rather than the incumbent.
Lastly, the fear of isolation from the rest of Kenya by some within Gema might persuade them to vote otherwise or not even go to vote. The referendum experience is still fresh in many people minds some who have seen little for supporting the incumbent during that period.
Thus, it is only fair to say that its unlikely that the expected high voters turn out in the Gema region will come to pass and if it does, it will not entirely be to the advantage of the incumbent over his main rival Raila. It is also true that the Gema vote is a lot more fluid this time round than ever.
The writer is a member of Kenya Capital Investment Group and can be reached at; www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Friday, December 21, 2007
Are Ugenya and Rarieda Constituencies Slipping Between ODM's Fingers?
Following the ODM nomination fiascos, on December 10, 2007 at 1:14 pm, this was my comments at Raila07 Wordpress Blog:"Thank you for this thread Blog Admin. One important voting block that you guys are assuming is ‘in the pocket’ is Luo Nyanza.
Having spent the last one week touring Ugenya and Rarieda, I can tell you for a fact hat unless the pentagon takes its campaigns on the ground in these areas, James Orengo and Dr. Gumbe are facing a very embarassing parliamentary defeats at the hands of Steve Mwanga in Ugenya and Raphael Tuju in Rarieda. In Ugenya, I fail to understand why this highly popular young man known as Steve Mwanga has been let loose in Ugenya. In all honesty, his three year development record is far beyond what the likes of Orengo and Ondiek have done in 30 years. To make matters worse, Mwanga is ‘blessed’ with an bottomless source of cash, and ti appears local ODM officials have got no counter campaign strategy to beat this. This Mwanga man is only 32 years old and although we alll have our doubts about the sustainability of his development projects, most of the villagers (including youth and women) are convinced he is the man to take to parliament. My own opinion is that the pentagon needs to pull Mwanga to one-side and ask him to bid his ptime on parlimentary ambitions and instead support Orengo because age is on his side and James Orengo will be of great value in parliament to ODM than Steve Mwanga. This is a serious issue that might require the ODM pentagone to pitch camp in Ugenya for day or more, otherwise that seat is as good as a gone (and what makes me sick is that he is winning on a KADDU ticket!).
The story is Rarieda is not any different. Tuju’s ‘development’ record is something all villagers in Rarieda are extremely proud of. In as much as they appreciate that they are required to support Raila’s candidature for president, they feel they are not obliged to vote for Dr. Gumbe and reject their own Tuju. This is an area where the ODM needs to visit and sell the importance of having an ODM MP otherwise, Dr. Gumbe, on his own, stands no chance in going to parliament against Raphael Tuju. The moral of this story is that the ODM pentagon has avoided campaigning in Luo Nyanza under the pretext that the voters of Luo Nyanza have granted permission to Raila to seek votes elsewhere. What Nonsense. If you guys dont believe me, the wait for results on 28th December and you will realise for the first time that we have PNU, KADDU, ODM-K and KANU MPs in Luo Nyanza. And that will be repeated in the civic polls too because, most people at the grassroot are against the proposed 3-piece voting system. Please ask the pentagon to do something AS A MATTER OF URGENCY!"
Today, just a few hours after Raila Odinga visited the constituency to campaign for Orengo an aide to Orengo was reportedly killed as campaign violence rocked Ugenya constituency.
With just a week to the elections date, this appears to be a tricky endeavour for the ODM presidential candidate because for the party to fulfill most of its pre-election pledges, some of which have a time frame within which to accomplish, the party will require not just numbers in parliament but individuals well versed in parliamentary and constitution making procedure. My proposals to the party candidate were not to undermine the constitutional right of the Ugenya people but to appreciate the national needs of the country.
Raila has to contend with not just campaigning for local MPs, he also has his own presidential campaign to look after as well as a minor threat in his Langata constituency in the name of an "alliance of convenience" known as Livondo-Ndura.
The issue of three-piece voting whereby a voter casts their ballots in favour of the civic, parliamentary and presidential candidates from the same political party are also a headache not just for ODM but also for PNU. It seems voters are very clear about what they want and the next parliament will have many unexpected MPs.
Mupende Musipende, Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni Is Already In The 10th Parliament
…And He Could Bt The Next Official Leader Of The Opposition
Kamlesh Pattni, now known s brother Paul Pattni is believed to have been the main architect behind the multi-billon shilling Goldenbeg scam. Other tycoons who committed lesser evils like Ketan Somaia are now behind bars but Pattni continues to defy all odds and is now set to be a member of the 10th parliament.
Part of the reason why the man is not behind bars is because he is extremely intelligent and appears to have too much on former President Moi and his hand in Goldenberg.
So how is Pattni going to find his way into parliament even if he does not win a parliamentary seat? Actually Kenda is set to win a number of parliamentary seats countrywide and Pattni will have an opportunity to nominate not only himself but quite a number of other characters into the August house. It all depends on the number of seats that he will win and all signs are that his extremely well financed KENDA political party is going to win quite a number of seats.
Read more
Kamlesh Pattni, now known s brother Paul Pattni is believed to have been the main architect behind the multi-billon shilling Goldenbeg scam. Other tycoons who committed lesser evils like Ketan Somaia are now behind bars but Pattni continues to defy all odds and is now set to be a member of the 10th parliament.
Part of the reason why the man is not behind bars is because he is extremely intelligent and appears to have too much on former President Moi and his hand in Goldenberg.
So how is Pattni going to find his way into parliament even if he does not win a parliamentary seat? Actually Kenda is set to win a number of parliamentary seats countrywide and Pattni will have an opportunity to nominate not only himself but quite a number of other characters into the August house. It all depends on the number of seats that he will win and all signs are that his extremely well financed KENDA political party is going to win quite a number of seats.
Read more
My Step-Mother’s Vote
At this time of the year, we all talk to our folks.
My Dad’s presidential vote looks like it is headed in Kibaki’s direction who he sees as the lesser evil of the 3 main candidates. The fascinating thing is that my step mother’s vote was headed in the same direction until the hot slap of the 12th of the December by Lucy Kibaki.
She says; “I hate to think what I would have done and felt if it was my husband being slapped. And to make matters worse in this case, his wife and children were present. And the man is a Mkamba like us. There is no way Kibaki is seeing my vote now.”
My Dad doesn’t think the slap is a big issue.
Mrs Kumekucha is voting Raila and has ignored all pleas from her brothers and sisters in the house of Mumbi who are rabidly Kibaki and very much anti-Mujaruo. Let me remind you that it was Mrs Kumekucha who said months back that it would take a major miracle and divine intervention for Raila Odinga to be elected president.
But I am happy to report that the various different political views in the family do NOT affect the way we relate. We respect each other’s views.
If I make it back home to vote, I will share with all of you exactly how I vote and why.
My Dad’s presidential vote looks like it is headed in Kibaki’s direction who he sees as the lesser evil of the 3 main candidates. The fascinating thing is that my step mother’s vote was headed in the same direction until the hot slap of the 12th of the December by Lucy Kibaki.
She says; “I hate to think what I would have done and felt if it was my husband being slapped. And to make matters worse in this case, his wife and children were present. And the man is a Mkamba like us. There is no way Kibaki is seeing my vote now.”
My Dad doesn’t think the slap is a big issue.
Mrs Kumekucha is voting Raila and has ignored all pleas from her brothers and sisters in the house of Mumbi who are rabidly Kibaki and very much anti-Mujaruo. Let me remind you that it was Mrs Kumekucha who said months back that it would take a major miracle and divine intervention for Raila Odinga to be elected president.
But I am happy to report that the various different political views in the family do NOT affect the way we relate. We respect each other’s views.
If I make it back home to vote, I will share with all of you exactly how I vote and why.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Why Not Make Every Constituency a District?
Freebies, domonomics and miracles aptly defines the three leading presidential candidates. The last few weeks have witnessed Kenyans subjected to political theatre of the absurd. Dolling of freebies by Kibaki leaves one wondering what the role of an administrative district is.
Kibaki's apologists will shamelessly recycle the tired and hollow line that his plastic gifts are meant to bring services closer to people. Yes cheap talk as services but expensive budgetary implementation are neat political gimmicks that are eventually very costly.
Make no mistake. Kibaki is no fool. He is cleverly stealing political thunder from his nemesis by unofficially implementing the raw version of majimbo albeit without spelling the same. The latent point in making every shopping centre a district is to leave majimbo enthusiasts with a distaste for PNU have second thoughts asking in its wake what else to scrap from ODM now that they are home and dry before elections with our district.
Podium of deceit
And if Kibaki's gimmicks make headlines then he stands on the podium of deceit hand in hand with all his other competitors who in the same breath shamelessly promise Kenyans a piece of the moon while shepherding them collectively to hell.
I cannot stop wringing my hands waiting for Thursday to put all this madness behind me at least for the next five years. Meanwhile in the political free fall we are happily enjoying the beauty of every floor oblivious of the hard pavement waiting below to crack our skulls. Poor Kenyans ridding on the back of scoundrels! Kazi iendelee meanwhile.
Shock As Foreign Media Corroborates Kumekucha / NSIS Predictions
Kenya presidential polls thriller NOT headed for a photo-finish says GoK's NSIS
The authoritative Mail & Guardian Newspaper of South Africa has published a comprehensive article in which the author has confirmed "having seen a government intelligence report which predicts that (Raila) Odinga would win with 5,6-million votes, or 55,9%, placing (Mwai) Kibaki in second place with 3,1-million votes or 31,09%, and (Kalonzo) Musyoka third with 1,2-million votes, or 12,9%."
These predictions are chillingly similar to those posted on this forum on 14th December 2007, which read in part........
"Unofficial opinion poll survey done by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) and leaked to this blogger by an insider shows that;
With 100% average turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;
With a 80% turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.
The leaked NSIS data does not show/mention Kalonzo Musyoka nor any other presidential candidates. These are the figures that senior cabinet ministers and the president’s close friends (read athuri) are scratching their heads over as of this morning."
The Mail and Guardian predictions are also very close to those published by Kumekucha a few days before the so called Gallup and Steadman reports.
Before PNU enthusiasts jump to bash this blogger, it will be useful to say that the Mail & Guardian newspaper (popularly known as M&G) is weekly investigative newspaper, published by M&G Media in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a strong focus on politics, government, the environment, civil society and business. M&G is a respected media house in this part of the world and has won numerous international media awards including the prestigious "IPD Best International Newspaper Award."
On the other hand the National Security Intelligence Service run by the Government of Kenya is a leading intelligence outfit in Africa. With an annual budget of Kshs.4b (approximately US$55m) and like all other intelligence organisations, the NSIS is mandated to gather and exploit secret information. Accordingly, it identifies conditions that threaten Kenya's political, economic and social stability and "subsequently develops opportunities and strategies to neutralise such threats on behalf of the Government of Kenya." It is not clear whether this mandate includes "neutralising" an act by Kenyan voters as well. The NSIS budget, like those of Office of the President, are kept at arms length whenever the Auditor General is in town.
Back to opinion polls, sources further reveal that the Nation Media Group CEO, Linus Gitahi, has been under intense pressure from PNU Chief Electoral Advisor Stanley Murage and Kibaki Tena Campaign Manager Lee Karuri to suspend/cancel publication of the groups weekly opinion polls from three different research companies that have persistently shown Kibaki trailing Raila, but the NMG Board of Directors would hear none of it considering the Standard is breathing down the Nation's neck in daily newspaper sales index, especially in this thrilling pre-election period. Mr. Murage remains on the civil service payroll and will most certainly work for the in-coming president in the first few weeks/months in office.
Because the GoK is made up of politicians, it is almost certain that the NSIS election intelligence report could be the main reason for the marked increase in intensity of campaigns by President Mwai Kibaki and his chief rival Raila Odinga whom the PNU suspects has his own parallel intelligence within the NSIS "since Raila has been receiving carbon copies of similar intelligence data as the president".
It is an open secret that the PNU opted to hire two foreign political scientists from South Africa following revelations by the same NSIS reports that Kibaki was headed for an massive electoral defeat by Raila ostensibly because Raila is receiving "free" consultancy services from one feared spin-doctor Dick Morris.
It was also not lost on observers that last week Mwai Kibaki chickened out of a public debate challenge by Raila Odinga out of fear of having to contend with an angry and betrayed electorate if gathered intelligence was anything to go by.
Interestingly, early this week, an official trip to Luo Nyanza by the Head of State (to formally open the Japanese funded Kshs. 13b Sondu Murui Power Station) was called off at the last minute after intelligence reports showed that the Head of State was likely to suffer public humiliation - like his predecessor Daniel Arap Moi - at the hands of ODM supporters if he went ahead with the trip. The same trip was to be used as a PNU campaign platform in what is Raila's stronghold and a district was due to be created in the Rarieda constituency. This is not to say that the Head of State (and Mrs. Lucy Kibaki) have not had to contend with ODM placard waving supporters and demonstrators in areas previously assumed to be "safe" like Western, Kisii/Gucha, Nairobi, Coast and North Eastern. These events have been given a blackout by mainstream media mostly out of fear of a backlash by the no-nonsense first lady. An incident at a Kibaki campaign rally turned very embarrassing a few days ago when a large crowd virtually blackmailed the president into creating a district for them.
All said and done, interesting times lie ahead for Kenya.
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