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Monday, December 24, 2007

Elections 2007: What Consequences?

As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.

If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?

If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?

How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?

What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?

And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.

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Anonymous said...

There you go again. PNU already said that if they lose, power will be handed over. But how come you cannot fathom an ODM loss? I believe there would be a problem only if Hon Raila loses. Most ODM supporters exude confidence that their man shall win- that is OK. Most of them would really like him to win- OK. But what IF (big IF) Hon Raila loses in a fair contest?

Hmm, lemme guess. Then ODM will say, " We reject results, we have always said the Govt would rig. Here is the proof. We lost!"

I hope ODM proves me wrong, in the unlikely event that they lose.

Vikii said...

My take is that the consttution, though not perfect in as far as transfer of power goes, it leaves no room for a crisis. It is simple; win the majority vote, get 25% in at least five provinces and win your parliamentary seat. There will be no crisis. If one wins the majority vote and fails to meet any of the other two requirements, that is not a crisis. We just go for the run-off which Kivuitu has already budgeted for.

Just a reminder; Those Kenyans in those 'six provinces' may not have a choice. The presidential vote is not about how many provinces one wins but how many votes one gets. They may just decide to take a walk on the streets and that will be it.

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