Are You Looking At Kenya From Westgate Or Mathare?

We keep getting reassuring statements from all quarters that the coalition will not collapse and that it will run its’ course to the next scheduled general elections in 2012.

We have even had a statement issued by a diplomat in Nairobi ruling out snap general elections as NOT being a viable option for Kenya. Wise words indeed. But wise words don’t always rule.

So on the surface of things it seems that the country will limp on until 2012 in its’ current state of uncertainty and constant squabbling within the coalition. But is this the case? The mood of the country and recent events seem to contradict this view.

Take for instance the incident at Uhuru Park on Labour day May 1^st where angry wananchi threw stones and walked out on Labour Minister John Munyees as he delivered the president’s speech. There are those who say that the heckling was organized for political reasons by ODM diehards to embarrass the president. This is of course difficult to prove, but even if it is true the truth is that Kenya as a country is now dangerously on the edge and amazingly nobody seems to see where the real danger lies.

About two weeks ago I had the privilege of seeing first hand just how deceiving the state of the country can be to a casual observer depending on where you are. I went to the Sarit centre, the prestigious Westgate and surrounding shopping arcades and could not miss the huge crowds of shoppers with heavy trolleys threatening to spill their contents on the neat pavements next to roads without a single pot hole. I quipped to a friend; “This is where the thieves of Kenya live and play.” I then traveled through a section of Ukambani and it was stark contrast. Children staring back with hunger visibly in their eyes. Desperate people who asked for my cell phone number and then quickly followed with requests for help—any kind of help. My informants have told me the situation is pretty much the same across most of the country. Most dangerously within slum areas in Nairobi.

To put this danger bluntly; there are far too many Kenyans at the moment who have absolutely nothing to lose. My question is; will all these people wait until 2012?

Kenyans are angry and hungry and that deadly combination means that anything can happen at any time.

Interestingly as I mentioned in an earlier post, both ODM and PNU are busy secretly preparing for a general election. Indeed the recent “campaign” targeted at the Prime Minister is part of PNU’s preparation for those elections. However what both political parties do NOT seem to realize is that Kenyans are long fed up with the old order and whatever kind of preparations both political parties make, they will NOT make an impact in the next polls (whenever that will be).

I love Shakespeare’s political classic Julius Caesar and in one memorable scene of the play Julius Caesar sees the soothsayer who had earlier warned him about the ides of March and reminds him about his prediction. The Soothsayer quietly replies that indeed the ides of March has arrived, but it was far from being over. Before the end of that day Caesar had fallen in bloody mess of stabbings. I made a bold prediction early this year where I doubted if the coalition government would survive beyond May. Well May is here… but it is far from being over.

Of course I have been wrong before…. But I have also been right.

P.S. Increasingly old corruption and crime rings that have been suffocating the country for a long time seem to be under attack even as they seem to continue to thrive. Fascinatingly one of the recent attacks to the old order seems to be coming from a most unlikely source. Technology.

Last week a Kenyan data recovery company launched a cell phone and laptop tracking device that is sure to put a lot of crooked people in Nairobi out of business. These people being put out of business are NOT nice people and the company in question needs to give serious thought to their personal security and that of its’ top executives.