Following the ODM nomination fiascos, on December 10, 2007 at 1:14 pm, this was my comments at Raila07 Wordpress Blog:
"Thank you for this thread Blog Admin. One important voting block that you guys are assuming is ‘in the pocket’ is Luo Nyanza.
Having spent the last one week touring Ugenya and Rarieda, I can tell you for a fact hat unless the pentagon takes its campaigns on the ground in these areas, James Orengo and Dr. Gumbe are facing a very embarassing parliamentary defeats at the hands of Steve Mwanga in Ugenya and Raphael Tuju in Rarieda. In Ugenya, I fail to understand why this highly popular young man known as Steve Mwanga has been let loose in Ugenya. In all honesty, his three year development record is far beyond what the likes of Orengo and Ondiek have done in 30 years. To make matters worse, Mwanga is ‘blessed’ with an bottomless source of cash, and ti appears local ODM officials have got no counter campaign strategy to beat this. This Mwanga man is only 32 years old and although we alll have our doubts about the sustainability of his development projects, most of the villagers (including youth and women) are convinced he is the man to take to parliament. My own opinion is that the pentagon needs to pull Mwanga to one-side and ask him to bid his ptime on parlimentary ambitions and instead support Orengo because age is on his side and James Orengo will be of great value in parliament to ODM than Steve Mwanga. This is a serious issue that might require the ODM pentagone to pitch camp in Ugenya for day or more, otherwise that seat is as good as a gone (and what makes me sick is that he is winning on a KADDU ticket!).
The story is Rarieda is not any different. Tuju’s ‘development’ record is something all villagers in Rarieda are extremely proud of. In as much as they appreciate that they are required to support Raila’s candidature for president, they feel they are not obliged to vote for Dr. Gumbe and reject their own Tuju. This is an area where the ODM needs to visit and sell the importance of having an ODM MP otherwise, Dr. Gumbe, on his own, stands no chance in going to parliament against Raphael Tuju. The moral of this story is that the ODM pentagon has avoided campaigning in Luo Nyanza under the pretext that the voters of Luo Nyanza have granted permission to Raila to seek votes elsewhere. What Nonsense. If you guys dont believe me, the wait for results on 28th December and you will realise for the first time that we have PNU, KADDU, ODM-K and KANU MPs in Luo Nyanza. And that will be repeated in the civic polls too because, most people at the grassroot are against the proposed 3-piece voting system. Please ask the pentagon to do something AS A MATTER OF URGENCY!"
Today, just a few hours after Raila Odinga visited the constituency to campaign for Orengo an aide to Orengo was reportedly killed as campaign violence rocked Ugenya constituency.
With just a week to the elections date, this appears to be a tricky endeavour for the ODM presidential candidate because for the party to fulfill most of its pre-election pledges, some of which have a time frame within which to accomplish, the party will require not just numbers in parliament but individuals well versed in parliamentary and constitution making procedure. My proposals to the party candidate were not to undermine the constitutional right of the Ugenya people but to appreciate the national needs of the country.
Raila has to contend with not just campaigning for local MPs, he also has his own presidential campaign to look after as well as a minor threat in his Langata constituency in the name of an "alliance of convenience" known as Livondo-Ndura.
The issue of three-piece voting whereby a voter casts their ballots in favour of the civic, parliamentary and presidential candidates from the same political party are also a headache not just for ODM but also for PNU. It seems voters are very clear about what they want and the next parliament will have many unexpected MPs.