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Friday, December 21, 2007

Are Ugenya and Rarieda Constituencies Slipping Between ODM's Fingers?

Following the ODM nomination fiascos, on December 10, 2007 at 1:14 pm, this was my comments at Raila07 Wordpress Blog:

"Thank you for this thread Blog Admin. One important voting block that you guys are assuming is ‘in the pocket’ is Luo Nyanza.

Having spent the last one week touring Ugenya and Rarieda, I can tell you for a fact hat unless the pentagon takes its campaigns on the ground in these areas, James Orengo and Dr. Gumbe are facing a very embarassing parliamentary defeats at the hands of Steve Mwanga in Ugenya and Raphael Tuju in Rarieda.
In Ugenya, I fail to understand why this highly popular young man known as Steve Mwanga has been let loose in Ugenya. In all honesty, his three year development record is far beyond what the likes of Orengo and Ondiek have done in 30 years. To make matters worse, Mwanga is ‘blessed’ with an bottomless source of cash, and ti appears local ODM officials have got no counter campaign strategy to beat this. This Mwanga man is only 32 years old and although we alll have our doubts about the sustainability of his development projects, most of the villagers (including youth and women) are convinced he is the man to take to parliament. My own opinion is that the pentagon needs to pull Mwanga to one-side and ask him to bid his ptime on parlimentary ambitions and instead support Orengo because age is on his side and James Orengo will be of great value in parliament to ODM than Steve Mwanga. This is a serious issue that might require the ODM pentagone to pitch camp in Ugenya for day or more, otherwise that seat is as good as a gone (and what makes me sick is that he is winning on a KADDU ticket!).

The story is Rarieda is not any different. Tuju’s ‘development’ record is something all villagers in Rarieda are extremely proud of. In as much as they appreciate that they are required to support Raila’s candidature for president, they feel they are not obliged to vote for Dr. Gumbe and reject their own Tuju. This is an area where the ODM needs to visit and sell the importance of having an ODM MP otherwise, Dr. Gumbe, on his own, stands no chance in going to parliament against Raphael Tuju.
The moral of this story is that the ODM pentagon has avoided campaigning in Luo Nyanza under the pretext that the voters of Luo Nyanza have granted permission to Raila to seek votes elsewhere. What Nonsense. If you guys dont believe me, the wait for results on 28th December and you will realise for the first time that we have PNU, KADDU, ODM-K and KANU MPs in Luo Nyanza. And that will be repeated in the civic polls too because, most people at the grassroot are against the proposed 3-piece voting system. Please ask the pentagon to do something AS A MATTER OF URGENCY!"

Today, just a few hours after Raila Odinga visited the constituency to campaign for Orengo an aide to Orengo was reportedly killed as campaign violence rocked Ugenya constituency.

With just a week to the elections date, this appears to be a tricky endeavour for the ODM presidential candidate because for the party to fulfill most of its pre-election pledges, some of which have a time frame within which to accomplish, the party will require not just numbers in parliament but individuals well versed in parliamentary and constitution making procedure. My proposals to the party candidate were not to undermine the constitutional right of the Ugenya people but to appreciate the national needs of the country.

Raila has to contend with not just campaigning for local MPs, he also has his own presidential campaign to look after as well as a minor threat in his Langata constituency in the name of an "alliance of convenience" known as Livondo-Ndura.

The issue of three-piece voting whereby a voter casts their ballots in favour of the civic, parliamentary and presidential candidates from the same political party are also a headache not just for ODM but also for PNU. It seems voters are very clear about what they want and the next parliament will have many unexpected MPs.

16 comments:

Patriot said...

This is a non-issue.Even if Luo Nyanza votes in non-ODM candidates, they will still support Raila in parliament. Remember that they're using Raila's portraits in their campaign posters and are actually campaigning for him for presidency.

Furthermore, Kenyan MPs never want to associate with the losers so expect Raila to have a comfortable support in parliament from non-Gema areas.

If Kifaki survived under the dubious GNU, Raila will do even better.

Sam Okello said...

I agree with Phil about Ugenya and Rarieda. Even from where I am, it's been obvious that the ODM approach to those two constituencies has been worrisome. It's a blessing to have a brave, development-conscious man man like Tuju in Rarieda and Mwanga in Ugenya, but at a time when the chairman will need reliable troops to pass legislation in parliament, we can't afford to have those two men in the August House. A high powered team of ODMers should pitch camp in Ugenya and Rarieda to explain the issues to the good people of those two constituencies. We can't fault them for seeking good representation...and they think they get that from Tuju and Mwanga. I hope that makes Orengo and Gumbe aware that there's no free ride. Should they be lucky enough to make it to parliament, let them do what the electorate sent them there to do. That's the new politics in Nyanza...and God bless the people for being wise.

Vikii said...

I have always doubted if Phil has any understanding or respect for represantative democracy. My fears that he has neither of these two have been confirmed today.

Phil, let me ask you a question; What is important to you; The people of Ugenya having a development conscious leader they have chosen themselves or a non performing unpopuar leader serving the interests of the sponsoring political party? What would be so catastrophic in the people of Rarieda electing Raphael Tuju who has met their expectations and justified their trust in him?

My views about the "Three-piece" debate is that it not only hinders democracy, but it also eliminates the essence of election. It is a fact that Party nominations in Kenya are a joke all the time. Neither the PNU, the ODM or ODMK can claim to have had free and fair elections. The nominations were marred by intimiditative violence,voter bribery, outright cheating, or lack of facilitation by the respective secreatariats. Why anybody would want voters in Nyanza to vote pure ODM, voters in Central to vote pure PNU and those in Ukambani to vote pure ODMK is something do not understand. In 2002 they did the same, what did that achieve? I am happy that in Ukambani, Kalonzo Musyoka has given up on winning all the seats there. He will be extremely lucky not to lose more than five seats (Narc lost four seats in '02 despite their presidential candidate getting close to 80% of the vote) and that is what I call freedom. When I talked of "Mbitanization" here a couple weeks ago and some people got offended, I trully and honestly felt, like I do today, that voters should be free to choose their representatives. Granted, every community fielding a presidential candidate will vote for their son because that is according to them the best way to safeguard their interests. But imposing MPs on the people is not only an outdated way of doing things but it is also dictatorial.

Plain and simple, if the people of Rarieda feel Tuju is a good leader, they should vote for him without the slightest of guilt. If those in Ugenya feel Mwanga is a young man who meets their expectations of a member of parliament, they should proudly associate themselves with him. That is not a crime. The other day I read in the papers James Orengo telling Raila Odinga to back the three Piece craze and I asked myself, is this man not ashamed? Someone who has decided to become a partaker to corruption by accepting a party nomination after emerging third should not have the temerity to talk to the press. He should cover his face in shame and it is my sincere hope that he loses. These shenanigans by James Orengo just serve to confirm that there is not a single politician who is honest.

Anonymous said...

So what is the point? You would rather vote out a serious performer, who is delivering to the people on the ground, and have an ODM figure just coz RAO is the captain of ODM? That is insulting the intelligence of Rarieda and Ugenya. Yet the likes of Phil are the campainers of Real Change. Talk of hypocrisy.

Philip Roy said...

One has to understand how parliament works to understand why it is important to have someone like Orengo on the government side to help bush government bills.

The other thing is that ODM can make Orengo a nominated member of parliament and save face.

Philip Roy said...

One has to understand how parliament works to understand why it is important to have someone like Orengo on the government side to help bush government bills.

The other thing is that ODM can make Orengo a nominated member of parliament and save face.

Anonymous said...

I am speechless at such utter nonsense! You want ODM to pitch camp in Nyanza so that two twerps with " no development record in 30 years" can be elected while the two that have done their job can be sent home. This is plain stupid and shameless!!!!
So you want to tell the people in Ugenya and Rarieda what? Tuju and Mwanga should go why? and Orengo and Gumbe should be voted in because? And then 5 years later when there is no development to speak about you will blame the government. This post belongs to the gutter it is complete garbage and I hate to think that you actually wrote this to an aspiring president whom you openly support. That is to tell us that to this candidate development is second to party politics. Otherwise why would one want to get rid o two leaders who have been doing their job? That is just plain wrong dude!

And could you please stop writing development in quotation marks!!!! It is either development or not so stop being cheeky and trying to make alse implications.

Anonymous said...

Phil, having spent that much time in Rarieda, I am concerned you do not know the ODM candidate in the constituency. There is a big difference between Dr. Larry Gumbe who you mention and Eng. Nicholas Gumbo, the actual candidate. Please check your facts.

Anonymous said...

My friend you never went to Rarieda but you just wanted to make a point. Im a voter in Rarieda and for your information there is no course to worry because inasmuch as Tuju has been overrated by the media, Eng. Nicholas Gumbo(not Dr. Gumbe) has been very thorough on the ground as well to market ODM. Trust me on this, Tuju will be a lucky Kenyan if he garners 5,000 votes in Rarieda.
Rarieda resident

TR said...

Being someone from Ugenya I would like to add my voice to this matter. Phil, Vikii and many others here are right. Let Ugenya people vote whomever they chose. In my opinion, it was unwise for Raila to stop by in Ugenya to campaign for Orengo. Ugenyans have been known to vote in individuals to parliarment differently from the rest of Luo Nyanza. In the 60s when KPU swept most of Nyanza during the infamous mini general election of 1969, Mathews Ogutu of KANU was elected instead. This even after Jaramogi Oginga himself came to campaign on behalf the the KPU candidate Odero Sar. Ugenyas repeated the same thing again in 1997 when Luo Nyanza again votted as a block for Raila's NDP except for Ugenya that instead votted in Orengo of SDP. It was only in 2002 that Ugenya votted in tandem with the rest of Nyanza. I am afraid that Raila is repeating the same mistake Jaramogi made in 1969 and that he himself made in 1997. This is not to say that they will not be votting in Raila for president. They will, but this should not be taken for granted. A lot of us do not support Mwanga as an individual and wonder where he got his money. Still we want to decide whom to vote for as MP without outside interferance.

TR

Anonymous said...

Sam Okello - one advise - leave GOD out of this since this the cheapest 'publicity' I could think of. And especially in your case, this is not only cheap but pure blasphemy.
So if you really care about Kenya, keep out like you kept out for the last 15 years since you decided to live in the US .... and not only that: you have decided to appear in all websides around the world as Ugandan' Author --- can you explain this?
How does this comply this with your newfound role as the 'savior' of Kenya ?

Anonymous said...

True that Capital Fm is PNU damu. Butn they are running scared of what is happening in their online barrometer. They asked these questions and the response was:
Who is your preferred presidential candidate?
Raila Odinga 3323 87%
Mwai Kibaki 460 12%
Kalonzo Musyoka 46 1%
see you all on Thursday...cheers

Total Votes : 3829

Anonymous said...

To close this up, I want ODM to loose so that all the above rubbish does not see light of the Day. No intimidating voters, ni Kazi yao kuchagua wajumbe ambao they feel will represent their hopes and aspirations. Of course most of you above are presuming Raila has already won. You dont know Democracy!

Anonymous said...

We are not presuming Raila has already won! That's why we shall vote!

I'm from Rarieda and what that Rarieda fellow has told you is the truth.

As for development in Ugenya, if Luo Nyanza gets their candidate as President, then we need more brainier representation. Definitely Mwanga does not have this.

We need Ugenya people to let Orengo come in for the sake of the nation (Read Bomas draft constitution).

If he fails for whatever reason, then he should be appointed the Attorney general.

deroo said...

I heard Moi say this...

Harambee....PNU
Harambee....Kibaki Tena
Harambee....Kazi iendelee.

For the day of reckoning is nigh!

deroo said...

You see, these are the mistake you make. You have even designated the post of AG for James Orengo. That is why other tribes wake up to challenge a Luo presidency. AG from nowhere? Kibaki could have appointed him AG. He has all along represented Kibaki in his presidential petitions against Moi in 1992 and 1997.

Anonymous stop being a VILLAGER!

-Derek-

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