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Thursday, December 20, 2007

Shock As Foreign Media Corroborates Kumekucha / NSIS Predictions

Kenya presidential polls thriller NOT headed for a photo-finish says GoK's NSIS

The authoritative Mail & Guardian Newspaper of South Africa has published a comprehensive article in which the author has confirmed "having seen a government intelligence report which predicts that (Raila) Odinga would win with 5,6-million votes, or 55,9%, placing (Mwai) Kibaki in second place with 3,1-million votes or 31,09%, and (Kalonzo) Musyoka third with 1,2-million votes, or 12,9%."

These predictions are chillingly similar to those posted on this forum on 14th December 2007, which read in part........

"Unofficial opinion poll survey done by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) and leaked to this blogger by an insider shows that;

With 100% average turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;

With a 80% turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.

The leaked NSIS data does not show/mention Kalonzo Musyoka nor any other presidential candidates. These are the figures that senior cabinet ministers and the president’s close friends (read athuri) are scratching their heads over as of this morning.

The Mail and Guardian predictions are also very close to those published by Kumekucha a few days before the so called Gallup and Steadman reports.

Before PNU enthusiasts jump to bash this blogger, it will be useful to say that the Mail & Guardian newspaper (popularly known as M&G) is weekly investigative newspaper, published by M&G Media in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a strong focus on politics, government, the environment, civil society and business. M&G is a respected media house in this part of the world and has won numerous international media awards including the prestigious "IPD Best International Newspaper Award."

On the other hand the National Security Intelligence Service run by the Government of Kenya is a leading intelligence outfit in Africa. With an annual budget of Kshs.4b (approximately US$55m) and like all other intelligence organisations, the NSIS is mandated to gather and exploit secret information. Accordingly, it identifies conditions that threaten Kenya's political, economic and social stability and "subsequently develops opportunities and strategies to neutralise such threats on behalf of the Government of Kenya." It is not clear whether this mandate includes "neutralising" an act by Kenyan voters as well. The NSIS budget, like those of Office of the President, are kept at arms length whenever the Auditor General is in town.

Back to opinion polls, sources further reveal that the Nation Media Group CEO, Linus Gitahi, has been under intense pressure from PNU Chief Electoral Advisor Stanley Murage and Kibaki Tena Campaign Manager Lee Karuri to suspend/cancel publication of the groups weekly opinion polls from three different research companies that have persistently shown Kibaki trailing Raila, but the NMG Board of Directors would hear none of it considering the Standard is breathing down the Nation's neck in daily newspaper sales index, especially in this thrilling pre-election period. Mr. Murage remains on the civil service payroll and will most certainly work for the in-coming president in the first few weeks/months in office.

Because the GoK is made up of politicians, it is almost certain that the NSIS election intelligence report could be the main reason for the marked increase in intensity of campaigns by President Mwai Kibaki and his chief rival Raila Odinga whom the PNU suspects has his own parallel intelligence within the NSIS "since Raila has been receiving carbon copies of similar intelligence data as the president".

It is an open secret that the PNU opted to hire two foreign political scientists from South Africa following revelations by the same NSIS reports that Kibaki was headed for an massive electoral defeat by Raila ostensibly because Raila is receiving "free" consultancy services from one feared spin-doctor Dick Morris.

It was also not lost on observers that last week Mwai Kibaki chickened out of a public debate challenge by Raila Odinga out of fear of having to contend with an angry and betrayed electorate if gathered intelligence was anything to go by.

Interestingly, early this week, an official trip to Luo Nyanza by the Head of State (to formally open the Japanese funded Kshs. 13b Sondu Murui Power Station) was called off at the last minute after intelligence reports showed that the Head of State was likely to suffer public humiliation - like his predecessor Daniel Arap Moi - at the hands of ODM supporters if he went ahead with the trip. The same trip was to be used as a PNU campaign platform in what is Raila's stronghold and a district was due to be created in the Rarieda constituency. This is not to say that the Head of State (and Mrs. Lucy Kibaki) have not had to contend with ODM placard waving supporters and demonstrators in areas previously assumed to be "safe" like Western, Kisii/Gucha, Nairobi, Coast and North Eastern. These events have been given a blackout by mainstream media mostly out of fear of a backlash by the no-nonsense first lady. An incident at a Kibaki campaign rally turned very embarrassing a few days ago when a large crowd virtually blackmailed the president into creating a district for them.

All said and done, interesting times lie ahead for Kenya.


Anonymous said...

blah blah 27th will come n go can someone tell me wen desparate housewives will return to our screens at this rate wen r we going 2 witness the other juicy seasons? but then wat do u expect in our dear land

Vikii said...

OK, let's wait and see. On the 28th, Derek's assetion that the NSIS has relocated to Nyatanga Premises in Kibera will be put to test.

Anonymous said...

None of the articles in the Mail&Guardian including the ones of today, talk about the figures mentioned here ...... they only say that Raila Odinga seems to lead by a 'slight edge' ........

So much to 'fairness and truth' or shall we call it 'how to influence the public opinion' during election times .......

Anonymous said...

Truly, ODM is in its last kicks of a dying horse. And Phil puts it nicely in a seemingly authoritative article. Yet deep down in his heart he knows Kibaki has higher chances of winning. Phil, why forget the advantage of incumbency? If you so strongly believe that Raila will win (and Kibaki is headed for a 'massive defeat'), I feel for you because you are just mentally torturing yourself. 27th is not far, all the intelligence, its budget, bla bla can not compare to the voter himself(she included) who will deliver the verdict on 27th. Let us wait and see. Meanwhile, +1 for Kibaki.

deroo said...


No place in this world has ever reported a 100% voter-turnout. Never. There are natural causes to consider. Immigration, death, pastrolism and even the double registration now rollicking the ECK.

Simply said, there are so many Kenyans who have moved away to fetch from greener pastures elsewhere. This is indiscriminative. You cannot say that one community or a section of the Kenyan community is involved. So let’s leave the 100% aside.

Let us go to the next point. The NSIS figures, that there is 5.6 million votes for Raila Odinga. Still, I have doubts about that. Serious misgivings. In Kenya, the elections with such figure will mean that some of the ODM volunteers you were calling upon will not vote. A voter registered in Kasarani might end up supporting his candidate in Moyale.

Phil, you say that the NSIS data do not show Kalonzo. Then are the ODM figures for Raila inclusive of Kalonzo’s ODM-K figures, considering that someone in Kajiado will be confused to say ‘Mimi sitaki Moi’ Haya mama, sasa weak X hapo kwa Moi or weka ‘TICK’ kwa Matiba’ and so the 1992 YK92 story goes…

Phil, another thing, NSIS is not and will never be a body to tell the president about elections. That means that the despotic nature of the Moi government could not have wasted the millions they did in 2002. The NSIS does not in any way play part to elections. They are as you have said, supposed to tell Moi, ‘Don’t go to Sondu!’

Stop lionising the NSIS with the kind of budget they run. That one does not prove anything different. Just like you said Jael Mbogo stood against Kibaki the other time. It makes no difference. We have offices that do nothing with such kind of budgets MAMA KOFI (has an office that might cough such an amount and likely so at this time). Isaiah Kabira’s office is not different and so are other offices like the protocol office that add no value to our lives.

If Raila has been receiving carbon copies of NSIS sleuths and documents, then he is dealing with the wrong people. If he ascends to power, they will do the same to him. Tell him to watch out.

If NSIS have done anything to Kibaki as Nyatanga FM says, then it has just invigorated him. Phil, I am with you and I hope the 27/28 Chris will like me and you communicate though this medium and it will be up to the minute. You will receive shocking fugures.

On the NMG and Standard, I will not comment at all.

Anonymous said...

Can Phil update me on what happened to Pentagoon JOE NYAGA? Did he finally see the true colours of RAO the dikteta ama?

John Maina said...

cant wait for the new president Raila to take kenya to the next level. vikii i hope you will not commit suicide then.

Phil said...

He he he. 27th is coming, and it is Kibaki and PNU that will be on the frying pan.

Anonymouses: Isnt it a fact that Kibaki turned down a challenge by Raila to a public debate? Isnt it a fact that all opinion polls have Raila leading for the last four months? Isnt it true Kibaki cancelled his trip to Luo Nyanza at the last minute, after being arm-twisted by Gucha residents to create a district for them? What does the law say about civil servants engaging in partisan politics?

Why dont you anonymouses face up to the facts and counter-argue with facts instead of calling people names? We respect you right to support Kibaki, but please if you need anything posted e-mail chris - so we can see what you got!

You tell ODMers to expect a shock on 28th....indeed, we shall see whether the Mois and Kibakis of this world will have the guts to attend Raila's swearing-in ceremony.

Derek and Vikii. At least we know Nyatanga's entrepreneurial prowess. Nyiyi je????? All your preferred candidates are trailing Raila after spending a good deal of time trying to convince us otherwise. Tutaona who will have the last laugh.

Anonymous said...

Why does the average derived from the provinces on the steadman poll never agree with the consolidated figure of the opinion poll ? Can anybody out there help me out ?

Yvonne said...

Correction Phil, Rarieda district had already been created way back, but he thought coz of the development that he had done in Rarieda, the Rariedans will welcome him in open arms. U see it has not added any value at the moment. Scenario, Rarieda with 2 divisions Uyoma and Asembo only made a district. If you use a boda boda less than 10 minutes you reach Bondo district. Does that make sense to you?Then Scenario 2, Bondo district has no medicine then you go to Rarieda and you find medicine. What kind of politics is that? You see people of Rarieda don't see Tuju and development, they see Tuju as an instrument that was used to divide the luos.
This is the same strategy that has been used by the successive govts to divide the luos.
You know it has been said that luos love domo more than anything else and that is why Nyanza is not developed and i always ask how come the Raila factor has never hindered any govt of the day from collecting taxes from the people of luo Nyanza. Luos i would rather die than bootlick. Siasa ya KANU ni baba na mama zilienda na Moi. By the way rumours were that Luos were going to be in their best behavior on 19th when the president was supposedly going to the lake region.
Phil are you connected with him....though i know that districts will not add a plate of ugali on our plates. It will be appreciated if maybe Ugenya and Alego will be in the big Siaya district and Gem can be given a district on its own.(Just a thought?? Coz that one to me will make sense.

Lastly polls or no polls. The day of reckoning draws nigh

Anonymous said...

hi chris and phil!!
we have learnt today from a very credible source that the orange day slated for the 24th of december 2007 has been CANCELLED by the KENYA POLICE!!!
could this be an act of despertion from the current government as you have mentioned in your main post???


Phil said...

ODM PN, yes this is obviously the last kicks of a dying horse. The desperation's started when the Kibaki Tena purportedly "booked" all stadia in the city for various functions in the last week of campaigns. This was aimed at keeping the opposition (read ODM) from having any mammoth rally in the city a few days before the elections.

One wonders how this helps PNUs course in the short term? The Kenya Police meanwhile, must follow orders from "above" just like they did when they were caught red-handed distributing hate campaign leaflets against Raila in a the clash torn Rift Valley.

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