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An extremely complex political situation has now emerged at the main opposition political party in Kenya at the moment, ODM-Kenya. It is a situation sadly brought on mainly by the selfish nature of some of the party's leading presidential candidates and yet is serious enough to cause defeat for this party which is the only hope for many Kenyans today.

The crux of the whole problem stems from ODM-Kenya's presidential nomination process recently agreed on after protracted horse trading that at one time got so heated that the press virtually declared the much-anticipated split in the party had arrived.

According to the mode of selecting the party's presidential candidate, a delegates system will be used in all constituencies in the country where a whopping 2,000 delegates will vote to decide who will face president Kibaki in the forthcoming polls.

The main problem with this agreed on system is requires some mind-boggling leves of financing.

For starters funds will have to be somehow found to get the 420,000 delegates to some central place for voting to take place. Assuming that the average return fare for the whole lot is a mere Kshs 2,000 then, then Kshs 840 million will need to be found just to carry out the elections. We have not even factored in allowances that delegates have come to expect as a right in every political party's delegates conference. On the other hand if the elections are held at the individual constituencies then almost a similar amount will be required to facilitate such an exercise including sending returning officers and setting up the particular points where the elections will happen.

But the more serious problems with this crazy, unprecedented presidential nomination system is the finances required for candidates to campaign successfully. Already the financial pressures are being felt be leading presidential candidates who somehow have to find the money t campaign to win the ODM-Kenya nomination and then after that, they will need to find even mo money to finance their campaign proper against the incumbent and other candidates who will present themselves. What this means is that the ODM candidate will be at a great disadvantage when compared with other presidential candidates from other political parties in that they need to raise funds for two campaigns.

Both Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga have stepped up their trips to the United States in what many see as a desperate effort to raise funds.

And what has brought about this whole problem? Nothing more than a bunch of opinion polls by the folks at Steadman, which have completely gone into the head of one Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. Even if the poll is genuine, it means nothing because Kenyans have been known to behave in one way before the polls and then on Election Day have ended up voting predictably for one of their own.

Mr Musyoka has been so blinded that he forgets the example from the 1997 polls where a presidential candidate from his own backyard suffered exactly the same fate. Charity Ngilu generated a lot of excitement when she became the first Kenyan woman to stand for the highest office in the land. At one point, she was welcomed in Kisii (by the worst male chauvinists you will find anywhere in the world) by a huge crowd chanting "Mama tuokoe" (Mother, save us). The crowd was asking would-be President Charity Ngilu to save the country from the mess Moi had gotten it into. Had Steadmann been around then and held an opinion poll, chances are that Ngilu would have emerged as the most popular candidate. But an even more ominous sign for Moi as to how "popular" Ngilu was, was to follow. When she went to present her papers to the Electoral commission, the size of the crowd that escorted her to County Hall and its' enthusiasm would have left you with no doubt that Ngilu and Kenya were set to make history. Political pundits who do not quite understand Kenyan politics chuckled at the prospect of Moi being removed from power by a woman.

It was never to be. Ngilu ended up getting most of her votes from her native Ukambani. The rest of the country including all those adoring crowds voted predictably according to their tribal instincts. Ngilu in fact trailed Moi, Kibaki and Raila in that order.

The consequences of the hunger for power at ODM-Kenya could easily be defeat in the hands of Narc-kenya when in fact the party already has a colossal amount of votes already in the bag.

We have not even analyzed the ugly politics that will surely emerge when the ODM-Kenya candidates start campaigning against each other for nomination. This will greatly weaken whoever is finally chosen to represent the party. The big question is whether Kenyan voters at the constituency level are sophisticated enough to go through a major party nomination process for the presidency and then follow up that with the presidential elections proper without getting terribly confused.

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Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Kumekucha Daily: Tues 30th Jan 2007

An Unworkable Presidential Nomination System And Serious Political Problems In ODM-Kenya