Countdown 2007: How To Rig The Polls By Calling Early Elections

Election fever 2007 has hit Kenyans in a big way, more so after the pronouncements of outgoing electoral commissioner Samuel Kivuitu.

But even as the country braces itself for the possibility of having its' elections outside the traditional dates in December just after Christmas for the first time since the re-introduction of multi-party politics, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. The main one is that any date outside the traditional dates will mean a much lower voter turn out. And if a lower voter turn out favors the incumbent (and there is plenty to suggest that it does) then this can be seen as way of rigging the elections.

In this article I will give just one most compelling reason why calling elections on any date outside the usual December date will favor President Kibaki. There is no doubt that the President's stronghold is Central province. As the word "central" suggests, Kenya's largest community is centrally located meaning that it will be easy for them to get to their polling stations to vote even if you call the elections for some strange date like tomorrow.

Some Kenyan communities have to travel for a full day to get to their upcountry constituencies where most have registered as voters since 1992. Traditionally this has not been a major problem because election dates have fallen at that time of the year when most Kenyans have to travel home for the Christmas holidays, anyway. Any date outside the usual one means getting time off from employers and then raising the funds to make the trip. Many Kenyans will just not be able to manage this. And neither will the huge army of small traders be able to make the time to be away from their businesses.

The result will be very low voter turn out, which will also mean that it will be easier for the incumbent to achieve the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast in at least 5 provinces.

There are some analysts who believe that elections may be called during one of the school holidays this year, most probably in August (April is to early to put everything into place). Others are even suggesting that it could be called outside school holidays meaning that the country could go to the polls as early as June.

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