Former speaker of the national assembly Samuel arap Ngeny could be the next chairman of the electoral commission and the man who will be at the helm of the body as the country goes for it’s most competitive and complex general elections to date. Ngeny is also a former MP for Aldai constituency.
If this prediction proves correct then Kenyans have a lot to fear because of the following;
i) It confirms the power and sway one Daniel arap Moi has in the running of the affairs of this country and will also corroborate the fact that he is in fact the chief strategist of President Kibaki's re-election campaign.
ii) The country will have an inexperienced chairman at the helm as it goes into a rather complex and threatening general election with tribal tensions already high and the possibility of a situation that will pit the Luo community face to face with the ruling Kikuyu class in the main showdown for the first time since the so-called "little elections" of 1969 that pitted Jaramogi Odinga Oginga's KPU (Kenya People's Union) against Jomo Kenyatta's Kanu. Needless to say that was one of the most chaotic moments in the history of Kenya.
iii) The replacement of Samuel Kivuitu as chairman will raise the nagging question; what is it about the current chairman that the President and his men are so nervous about and yet Kibaki ascended to the presidency with the same Kivuitu at the helm of the electoral commission? Could it be his impartiality which has been severely tested and tried over time, most recently during the November 2005 referendum over the proposed new constitution, which the government lost badly? Could it be that Kivuitu's impartiality and firmness will not serve the planned strategy and campaign tactics of Narc Kenya well this time round?
iv) The replacement of Kivuitu as chairman will be the latest step in what appears to be a consistent campaign by Narc Kenya to ensure that there is as little reform and leveling of the playing field as possible as we go into the elections. Readers will remember that the same Narc Kenya has consistently frustrated all initiatives at minimum reforms going into the general elections. The really scary thing here is that there are very few other things that this administration has been so consistent at doing.
v) The appointment of the former speaker to the chair will mean that former president Moi needs a man he can trust at the helm and could not have done better than get a man from his own community who already owes the president just too many favors from the past. But the million shilling question is; so that he (Moi) can do what?