If ODM-Kenya goes through with their current proposed sytem for coming with their presidential candidate, then it is safe to assume that one Uhuru Kenyatta will emerge victorious.
Uhuru has three major advantages. Firstly he has the resources to finance an expensive campaign to help him clinch the nomination and then after that will still have enough funds to finance his campaign proper and all without causing any dent on the family fortune, mainly acquired from land grabbed by the first president of Kenya, countrywide.
The second advantage Uhuru has is that he garnered well over a million votes in the presidential polls in 2002 and it will be fairly easy for him to re-establish contact with his 2002 supporters at the constituency level and easily carry the day.
Thirdly there is enough Kikuyu influence in most of the provinces to give Uhuru numerous votes, at least enough for him to clinch the nomination.
If truth be told, the prospect of Uhuru facing Kibaki once again will result in an easy victory for Uhuru this time round, not to mention the fact that tribal tensions will be eliminated from the presidential polls. However there is the massive Kikuyu backlash that has been building up over many years of dominance and arrogant display of tribalstic tendencies by this tribe that has come to the fore again during the Kibaki presidency. What added insult to injury were the voting patterns of the kikuyu in the hotly contested referendum over a new constitution in November 2005. Chances are high this time that many Kenyans will opt to reject any kikuyu candidate in favor of any other tribe for the presidency other than the Kikuyu. No doubt this kikuyu factor will further complicated an already highly complex political scenario that will be the general elections 2007.
And where does all this leave ODM-Kenya? Where does it leave ODM-Kenya founder Raila Odinga? There is yet another even more complex political question; will the nomination produce the most suitable candidate to face Kibaki? Many would quite rightly answer with a loud “no” to that last question. Actually consensus would have been much better because ODM-Kenya kingpins can quietly analyze the Kibaki Awori partnership and come up with the best candidates to bring victory. But then we all know that that is impossible with all the power-hungry folks crowding ODM-Kenya.
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You have left out the most important factor in Uhuru's favour: the KANU network. KANU is the only party with a network covering every location in this country. This is a big advantage to a KANU candidate in ODM-Kenya
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