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It looks like we are definitely headed for a show down and it is going to be one hell of a show with lots of fireworks. But no excitement, only more suffering for the already stretched ordinary Kenyan.

Opposition parties are all agreed that there will be no general elections in Kenya without minimum reforms, even if it means delaying the polls. The government is saying, "we don't scare that easily and we're not going to be threatened into discussions." It is clear that although Justice Minister Martha Karua says that the government is ready for dialogue at any time, Narc Kenya are not interested in reforms. If anything their strategy has been based on the country going into these elections without any reforms. In other words they do not want to lose the huge incumbent advantage the current constitution gives them.

The wily opposition operatives on the other hand have pushed the kind of reforms that put President Mwai Kibaki at a great disadvantage, right to the top of the reforms agenda. One such proposed law is the 50 per cent rule where the opposition king pins argue that if you are going to give a president powers that come close to those of the almighty, then they might as well insist on their getting over 50 per cent of the popular vote. If this is passed into law, it will put Kibaki's handlers into a mess because working closely with Moi, they seem to have worked out an intricate campaign strategy where by relying on certain assured pockets of support countrywide, their candidate will cruise back into power without breaking into a sweat and Lucy Kibaki will not need to do any packing or house hunting towards the end of this year.

The last time there was a similar showdown between the two sides, the situation was only saved by a last minute decision to post the ODM-Kenya registration certificate. This time all indications are that no side wants to be the first to blink.

There is now a remote possibility but nevertheless a possibility, of certain major political parties sitting out the polls in protest even as Narc Kenya doggedly goes on with them. That can only mean one thing—chaos.

What makes this a possibility is the fact that Narc-Kenya do not seem to have a plan B strategy for winning these elections. It will therefore be suicidal for them to accept minimal reforms before the elections.

It is important to point out that even ODM-Kenya, the darling of many Kenyans has let down the ordinary mwananchi very badly. When tribal clashes broke out in Mathare slums ad other parts f the country, leaving many innocent Kenyans dead, the MPs did not demonstrate in the streets as they did for their precious registration certificate. Now they want to call on the public to demonstrate again, this time so that their match to power is made smoother. In the event of a confrontation with the police, most MPs will have their aides on hand ready for a quick getaway to leave the "cockroaches" to be bludgeoned to death, or even worse, with high medical bills from injuries sustained that they will spend the rest of their lives paying for.

Some of the MPs crusading for mass action will play it the Kalonzo Musyoka way. Incite and inspire a large turn out and then be absent during the actual demonstration (why does this man duck so much in life, he even disappeared into the toilet during an important government vote. If he becomes president, there is no telling what he will duck).

A level playing field is important, but I am persuaded that known lions do not wake up one morning being gazelles. Nor can wolves be turned into sheep. They can only be lions in gazelles clothing or wolves in sheep's clothing for the sole purposes of hunting for food. The sort of characters who currently pollute the ODM-Kenya high command are NOT the kind of people who will lead Kenyans to the promised land. Nor will they prosecute Goldenberg or Anglo Leasing. The tragedy of it all, is that neither will Narc-Kenya (or whatever it is you call the group that has been in power since the end of 2002) deliver the goods—as they have already demonstrated to us in four years of broken promises and the most blunder-prone government in Kenya's history. And that is a fact.

Kenyans can only wait and pray and hope that a third viable alternative will somehow emerge.

Meanwhile prepare yourself for mass action and all the terrible consequences it comes with.

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Friday, January 26, 2007

Kumekucha Daily: Fri 26th Jan 2007

Mass Action And Mass Violence Inevitable As No-Reforms-No-Elections-Campaign Picks Momentum