Moi Shoots KANU in the Head

Former President Daniel arap Moi is either the political giraffe Jaramogi proclaimed him to be or a superlative selfish Kenyan who is determined to die with Kenya's independence party. Moi's unwarranted meddling into Kanu (and by extension Kenya's politics after retiring) has inadvertently sounded the party's death knell.

The angry Kenyan voters have beaten Moi twice. In 2002 they donated to him a piece of political embarrassment in a sounding defeat of his pet project Uhuru Kenyatta. And just when Moi erroneously thought he would recoup lost ground in his sunset days Kenyans in general and Kalenjins in particular have twisted the political knife by denying his son Gideon the Baringo Central seat.

So UK remains the chairman of a shell of a party with a rich history. Kalenjins made sure that any trace of Moi was wiped out of the political landscape. Very few people would have predicted the political demise on Total Man Biwott.

Moi's meddling eventually leaves Kenya politically the poor. With less than 10 MPs Kanu's epitaph is already engraved in golden letters. Add to this grim picture PNU's top guns kissing the political dust and you have Kenyan politics bereft of any meaningful parties save for the shaky ODMs.

Scoundrels never learn, or do they? Whatever they take voters for, the electors are surely miles ahead and will never shy from dishing out serial embarrassment. But behind all the motions lies the obtuse selfishness that our politicians are always very eager to rope us into while cleverly serving their own interests. Washindwe.

Tears and Cheers Galore

A new don is here folks with dinosaurs kissing their political seats goodbye as the new face of Kenyan politics graces our motherland. Kenyan voters have once again demostrated that they have no respect for cheap political peddlers.

Seeing Gabriel Musikari Kombo's forlon face after suffering a huge thrashing by one Alfred Sambu makes you wonder how fortunes can change in a twinkle of an eye. Joining Kombo in the political dust bin are VP Awori who suffered the wrath of moody voters of Funyula. Add to that pit Tuju, Kagwe, Nyachae, Kulundu, Kirwa, Sang and Munyao among others and you get a complete orbirtuary signed in golden letters.

And as these ex-lords nurse political wounds, a new breed representing the brand Kenya are smiling all the way to the August House. And the message is clear: deliver or wembe ni ule ule in five years time. Our pride and congratulation to Ababu, Kones, Kabando wa Kabando et al.

With proper brains and no shortermism, we don't care who becomes the president. Kenyans have shown the rest of the world that they are in a class of their own. We want our motherland back from the scoundrels.

Meanwhile we at Kumekucha start keeping tabs on the new political faces without fear of favour and the acidic sensoring will not spare any face. No amount of juveline swearing and sweating can deter Kenyans from realizing their dreams with eyes singularly trained on the ultimate prize: SUCCESS.

Breaking News: Raila Reclaims Langata Seat

ODM's Raila Odinga is the MP-elect for Langata constituency and seemingly headed straight to the presidency of Kenya.

Results just announced at Nyayo Stadium by the Langata ECK Returning Officer shows that Raila garnered 59,416 votes against his closest challenger Mr. Stanley Livondo of PNU who garnered 23,919 votes. Ms Stella Mbai of ODM-K emerged a distant third with 1342 votes. A large crowd of mostly Raila's supporters, including this blogger and some members of the ODM presidential campaign team , have kept vigil at the Nyayo Stadium tallying centre for the last 24 hours. There is a strong contingent of the dreaded paramilitary GSU and regular police providing security for the ECK returning officer and the various party agents.

There was initial speculation locally and internationally that the ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga would lose the parliamentary seat and therefore be lawfully disqualified from assuming the presidency which requires that the president must first be elected as an MP.

Since the vote counting started last night, there has been anxiety considering that Raila is President Kibaki's leading challenger and that there has been allegations of massive voter importation into Langata principally to frustrate his presidential bid.

Presidential results as at 16h45 local time show that Raila is steadily widening the gap as media tallying show Raila at 2.9m against Kibaki's 1.9m, while Kalonzo is trailing a distant third with 279,000 votes.

Most ODM MP elect have already started arriving in Nairobi in readiness of what Pentagon member and Eldoret North MP-elect says is "the inauguration of our candidate as the 4th President of the Republic of Kenya."

This blogger has not yet declared Raila the overall winner of the presidential poll, but all indications are that ODM will not only have a majority in the next parliament, it will most likely also be forming the next government.

Meanwhile disturbing news emanating from Kisii say that former legislator Jimmy Angwenyi has shot dead one person and seriously injured two others in his rural constituency in post election violence. The results or despute, if any, are still unknown. More on this to follow.

Sour Grapes Or Sound Analysis Of Who Will Win Presidency 2007?

Remember, respected political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi? This morning he did an obituary of the Kibaki presidency on NTV. Obviously this means that he believes that going by the results so far and the trends, Raila Odinga will emerge winner.

Quite strange coming from Ngunyi who after the referendum was one of President Kibaki’s main advisors. Some analysts suspect that this could be a case of sour grapes, because President Kibaki trashed advice from some of the best political minds in the country and stuck close to his family and golf buddies with no political experience like Joe Wanjui. In fact if he loses these elections many of these advisors will be vindicated.

Others agree wholeheartedly with Ngunyi’s view and see no way of Raila losing his widening lead on Kibaki. Raila supporters are even distributing SMS messages claiming that Peter Marangi has been hired to paint State House orange. Hat cheek!

P.S. Linah Chebii Kilimo despite her late “acrobatics” in the run up to the general elections (implying panic) appears to have made it back to parliament. The good news is that all indications are that the 10th parliament will have a record number of women legislators (and not only of the nominated kind).

Also significant is Mrs Kilimo’s party- Paul Kamlesh Pattni’s KENDA. A party that has a chance of gaining a high number of parliamentary seats. Which means that Mr Pattni (actually Hon Pattni) will see the inside of the 10th parliament even after losing the fierce battle for the Westlands seat which currently has Betty Tett disputing Fred Gumo votes over some very, very, suspicious results from one polling station which seems to have been fiddled around with. The two are the front runners for this parliamentary seat.

Other reports just in indicate that Daudi “Anglo Leasing” Mwiraria has lost. WOW!!! Stay tuned, Kenya’s angry voters are not done yet. If you have a weak heart I advice that you take a trip somewhere far from any access to news on Kenya and return after a week prepared for anything

HOT NEWS just in: Paul Muite defeated. Harun "the boss" Mwau wins in Kilome.

Attempted Rigging Reported in Kamukunji and Kajiado North Constituencies

Chaos have erupted in Kamkunji constituency after several ballot boxes were delivered into the tallying centre by police officers. Turn-out was very high in Kamkunji and the race appeared to be between ODM and PNU - with the latter heavily tipped to win. The vote tallying has been suspend as the ECK consults on what to do next.

In Kajiado North, former Education Minister George Saitoti has had to run for dear life after voters stoned him and accused him of delivering "sealed empty ballot boxes" with the intention to swing the vote in his favour. Young Maasai moran have been pictured chanting war-cries and vehemently indicating that they will not accept rigged elections results. Saitoti has had to contend with fierce competition from preacher turned politician Moses Ole Sakuda. Vote counting and tallying has been suspended indefinitely.

Meanwhile other significant loses are: Kibwezi's Kalembe Ndile, Cherangany's Kipruto Arap Kirwa and Kikuyu's Paul Muite. A total of 14 cabinet ministers have suffered heavy loses in the election - dealing President Kibaki's re-election a serious dent. Read more here. ODM is commanding a lead in the parliamentary seats race - more than 40 legislators already confirmed as ODM MPs.

Reactions on Biwott's Loss

I've just received the following comment from somebody who knows Nick Biwott very well;

Nicholas Biwott has lost. But I am sure, his wife will make it to the 10th parliament - and he must have seen it coming for him, so she enters instead. This man is really clever.

My Comment: Let's wait and see, as I have said, Kenyan voters are in a very very bad mood.

Election Update: Shockwaves Galore As Clear Trend Begins To Emerge

As the election results continue to trickle in at a pace that most impatient Kenyans find to be too slow (but which is attributed to a record turn out in polling stations countrywide) some clear patterns are beginning to emerge.

Nicholas Biwott is out of parliament for the first time since the late 70s. Gideon Moi has also lost in Baringo Central. Other giants who have been felled so far include Njenga Karume, Mukhisa Kituyi, Moody Awori, George Saitoti, Simeon Nyachae, Musikari Kombo, and Mutahi Kagwe.

What I earlier referred to as the angry Kenyan voters is about to be played out before our very eyes in the next few hours as more election results begin to trickle in.

In my book Biwott’s exit is very good news but this good news has almost been wiped out by the entry into parliament of a man called Ephrahim Maina as the new legislator for Mathira. This gentleman was once called a cowboy contractor of the notorious Kirinyaga Construction. A man accused of grand corruption in the ministry of Roads and also one of the chief financiers of President Kibaki’s presidential campaign in 2002. (Need I say more?)

Early in 2006 I made the mistake in my analysis of saying here that retired President Moi would be a major force to reckon with in the Rift Valley. One of our readers in the Rift Valley mockingly told me to keep on dreaming which caused me to investigate further and I found that he had been absolutely right and I was indeed dreaming. The Kalenjin community seems to have firmly ignored all the pleas of the retired president and to get the message to him have started by voting out his favorite son, Gideon from Baringo Central which has to be the biggest slap in the face for Moi from the people he has served for so long.

As I had predicted, there are strong indications that PNU will have a drought of MPs in the 10th parliament. So far the party leading in Central is surprise, surprise—Safina. PNU is yet to land a single parliamentary seat anywhere in the country.

We will keep you posted.

The Calm Before The Storm

Ladies and Gentlemen,
........................................the calm before the (political) storm in Kenya
Happy New Year!

Election Update: Raila Not On Langata Constituency Register

27th December 2007, 10h00 local time

Shock as Thousands of Names, including that of Raila Odinga, are found missing on ECK Register!

There was heightened tension this morning when thousands of voters were turned away at various polling stations in Langata constituency after their names were found missing on the voters register. Among those who were turned away were ODM Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga who immediately visited the ECK KICC office and lodged a complaint with Commissioner Jack Tumwa. According to Raila, most of the omitted names begin with letter A, O, R and W. He termed this omission regrettable and most unfortunate. The ECK, unable to explain this glaring mistake, has issued orders and fresh voters register specifically for Langata constituency was due to be re-printed. Interesting, Raila was accompanied by Westlands ODM aspirant Fred Gumo who complained of the same problems in his constituency.

International journalist from BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, traveling in a single convoy of SW Land Rovers, were seen filming and interviewing voters who had been turned away as well as those who were allowed to vote.

Earlier youths in Kibera had formed vigilante groups which set-up road blocks along the main Kibera Drive and all vehicles driving into Kibera were forced open the cars for a thorough search. Matatu passengers were also forced to alight and walk to their polling stations. There were very long queues from Kibera Primary (where Raila is registered to vote) as well as those of Olympic and Ayany Schools, estimated to be as long as 3 to 4 kilometers long! It is clear that voter turn-out will outstrip previous elections.

As at the time of posting this, Raila had not voted and the ECK were addressing an international press conference to address the problem in Kibera. Local press reported that both Mwai Kibaki and Kalonzo Musyoka had already cast his vote in Othaya.

This blogger arrived in Langata at 06h00 and voted at 10h00.

Still Your Hearts

In a few hour's time we are going to the polls, my dear Kenyans. Rudyard Kipling has something to tell us this day:

If you can keep your head when all about you,
Are losing theirs and are blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream – and not make dreams your master;
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster,
And treat those two imposters just the same.

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute,
With sixty seconds worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything’s that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a man, my son.

Have peaceful elections tomorrow. And may the best man win.

How I Will Vote And Why

Plus Bizarre Incident of APs Found With Marked Kibaki Ballot Papers

In a few hours time, Kenyans go to the polls in what I have called the mother of all general elections.

If I get to the polling booth here’s what I will do and why.

My choice for councilor and MP will not make much sense to most of you but I can assure you that neither will go to ODM or PNU.

I have thought long and hard about my presidential vote. Those who have been here for a long time know that my preferred presidential candidate is not running. If John Githngo had run I woild have trooped over to the polling station where I am registered and I would have cast my vote for him even if I was sure I was the only Kenyan voting for him. You see contrary to what most Kenyans think a vote is NEVER lost or wasted. This thing is about your conscience. The big question you should always ask yourself is if you will live with our choice for the next 5 years.

Luckily my conscience still works (You can easily numb this critical faculty you know).

Despite the fact that I love my in-laws very much and despite the fact that I always seem to have a crash on Kikuyu ladies (like Mrs Kumekucha—even after all those years, PKW—many months ago, my good friend Sayra—the latest flame whom I feel so close to, my younger brother’s wife who is also Kikuyu accused me a few minutes ago of wanting to seat next to her—she was joking of course, etc.) I am not voting PNU. I woud never be able to live with myself if I did because a vote for PNU is a vote for Moi and Anglo Leasing and most of all it would be vote against John Githongo, a man who has risked his life and done Kenya proud.

Stevo comes from my tribe. But my vote for Ngilu in 1997 was the last time I will ever vote for tribal reasons. A man who hides in the toilet to avoid an important vote in parliament is not my idea of the courageous president we need to carry Kenya forward.

Personally I don’t like Raila and I have never liked him...

Read more

A Dream About Kenya's President in 2008

" .... I dreamed last night ......I heard the clock at my wall count the hours and it was exactly midnight on this special night of December 27/28...... and I heard a voice telling me ......

.... "we are still counting the results of the Kenyan Elections but we have not yet decided who of the two candidates is the best to lead his country into a better future ..."

And then I see two faces - first the assuring one of Mwai Kibaki ..... and in the background I see the face of his wife Lucy -

And then - slowly - appears the face of Raila Odinga .........

But all of the sudden, the face of Raila Odinga is replaced by that of Dr. Robert Ouko ...... and at the end, they even both appear to be the same .......

And then I hear Robert Ouko's voice telling me: Trust me, whoever becomes the next President of our beloved country, he will make sure that justice will be done..........justice not only to me - but to all the others who died to save Kenya ............

I dreamed a dream last night ...................... but will it ever become reality ???????????

Guest post by Marianne Briner

An Election Like No Other

By Derek

Just after many of you will have read this post, Kenyans in their millions will troop to the ballot box for the most-eagerly awaited election in living memory. It will be an election like no other, an election that will be won, not by propaganda or illusions, but by amassing as many tribes as possible.

I have argued once and again on this blog that the best way to look at the 2007 General Elections will be the tribal linkages that will be won at the time the voters troop out to the ballot box.

Said bravely, there are many things that will be used by the Kenyan electorate to decide who wins the presidency and who will not. However, in the past one year, opinion polls have emerged to convince the electorate that certain leaders are up for it while others are not.

While ignoring a fact that it is a tribal vote, ODM supporters have over time dismissed the polls, embraced them, criticised others and at the time rubbished those that portrayed their leader Raila Odinga as losing or close to President Kibaki.

I do not fault the pollsters, but in the last one week, it has emerged that the pollsters, have been serving certain needs. Uhuru Kenyatta tore into the pollsters a day after Gallup International made their own findings. In fact, Gallup poll gave the best picture available at the particular moment – which the polls will be too close to call. The rest will be decided on the day of the election.

Now, to the election and the run-up that has witnessed some of the best electioneering Kenya has seen!

In the run-up to the ODM nominations, trouble that had been simmering over time, allegedly influenced by mistrust among the members who won the Referendum for them in 2005, came to the fore when the London ‘bonding’ trip aborted. To ODM, that was the start of their blurred vision to taking over the reins of the country from the incumbent. They went separate ways, and comically, Uhuru Kenyatta offered to support President Kibaki.

The withdrawal of Kanu president from the ODM fold simply made easy things hard and left William Ruto and Henry Kosgey as the only vocal men from the Kalenjin, (I insist on that) region of the Rift Valley. But within ODM itself, there was trouble and confusion in the way they held ‘endorsement’ campaigns around the country. It was comical and an abuse to common sense that five people vying for the same seat step onto the same podium and only proclaim that they are standing and tactfully organised to have Raila Odinga speak last.

When Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka offered a voice of dissent, what followed him was a ‘sacking’ allegedly by Raila Odinga who was determined to stop anybody critical to his ascension to power. Well, he was not even the party leader at that time. What followed was a threat by janitorial staff at the office of one of the top officials before Imanyara came to the rescue.

Raila, brave, strong with a near fanatical cult following from his Luo tribe is by no means a cheap stock to sell but many things have to be countered about his candidature.

He has on his side, people accused of grand corruption in the country, including the chairman Henry Kosgei. Kosgei and William Ruto talk about corruption, and the only reason they are free people, like Cyrus Jirongo, and Kamlesh Pattni, all gunning for elected posts, is at the mercy of former president Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki thereafter. It is a protection that that should value for years to come. Even Raila Odinga himself is not clean with the dodgy acquisition of the Kisumu Molasses plant.

If I am wrong in any way, someone please correct this. Raila Odinga could have used the Troon Report/Ouko Murder and even his words during the ODM break-up that Ruto is not clean, but he never said anything about corruption. Did he ever say anything about Robert Ouko? No. He was surrounded by the same people who were ‘allegedly’ linked to the disappearance and the death. Did he ever say anything about Nicholas Biwott and his ‘alleged’ involvement? No. Not even Moi’s government involvement.

Was Noah Arap Too near him? Yes. Franklin Bett was also in his camp and funny enough Sally Kosgey who was serving the government when it all happened was with his all the time. Then there is Charity Ngilu. Does it mean that she served the government all the five years only to realise at the last minute that she was serving the wrong government? No! It is all a joke.

And finally, the tribal groupings. Kibaki has to his side, Simeon Nyachae leading the Kisii front, Nicholas Biwott, Daniel Moi and his sons leading the Kalenjin front (and you would have heard the noise that comes from Raila and Ruto over that), and Kombo leading the Ford Kenya (a fact that has forced Kirwa to defect there) and obviously, the North Eastern front that is led by a few ministers serving in the current government.

As said before this is all about tribes and their friends! The Luo, Luhya and Ruto and Kosgei (western/Rift valley) vs. Kibaki, Nyachae, Mwaklwere and Kiraitu on the other end.

The choice is yours.

SMS Christmas Texts

Today in the morning i send a christmas text to some of my friends, who i knew where their vote will go, with a small campaign text. I was curious in knowing their reactions if i had my vote in a camp they didn't support. To the ones on the PANUA way i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, a chungwa moja 27th and a maisha bora 2008. These were the replies i got:

thanx merry xmas to u too n happy panua 2008

Thank u my dear but i prefer to panua on 27th.Have a merry xmas too n a happy new year!

I also do wish u a merry xmas n a continuation of ur job in 2007.Vote wisely n rememba 2 put in a leader who wil cntinue letin equity grw in heaps n boundz.

Eee na kazi iendelee.Naskia uko nyayo stadium

Wish u a lovely christmas galfriend,the very best God has in store 4 u.In 2008,kazi iendelee with greater momentum.Niko waks saa hii,na kazi inaendelea;-)

Tupatane kwa sanduku!.MERRY CHRISTMAS DEAR GAL & A 2008 filled with hope & PLENTY.AMANI.

Am nt takin that politely.

Meri xmas 2 lakini kazi iendelee sababu ishaanza my dear.wacha raila akule kisu kwanza

I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, a Mwenge 27th na kazi iendelee mwaka 2008

A merry xmas 2 u 2!Maisha bora(grrhhh, that is a recipe 4 disaster!). KAZI IENDELEE

I also do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a wise choice at elections.Na kazi iendelee in 2008!

Yeah you too. Lakini wewe ni nani my dear?

CHUNGWA'? No! I dnt want to believe that! Have a mary-Chris-mas

Jesus ws born to lighten our loads.This Christmas don't ask for a light load,ask 4 a strong back.U always hav Jesus! MERRY X-MAS! N vote Kibaki on 27th.

After tryin 2 papanua ur msg,i finally wish u merry xmas n a kazi iendelee year with betta fruits.

*****

To the ones ODM way i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas, Emillio 27th and a Kazi iendele 2008. These were the replies i got:

I thot u eat orange cake like me?

Hellooz what a suprise.u 2 dear hav a merry xmas & be wanned that Deadly mountain flu known as PNU which affects the brain has been reported in central kenya.The region is under quarantine.Pple in other parts of kenya are advised to take ODM pills 1 full orange for 7 days to avoid infection.happy New yr.

Thx 4 the txt.as 4 2008 ni chungwa 1 maisha bora.mabadiliko na RAILA.

Thank you for the sms. Me raila xmas and agwambo new year.

SHINDWE

*****

Then there are those who like me dont care much if its Kibaki, Raila or Kalonzo, i send them this text: I do take this oppotunity 2 wish u my friend a merry xmas and a happy new 2008.on 27th Matiba will get my appreciation vote for what he did in the 1990s. These are the replies i got:

Desparate for votes frm sex workers, Kibaki has now declared Koinange Street a ful District.. Ati ndio kazi iendelee.

Thank u dear,Merry Xmas too n a blessed 2008.

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All in all my fellow Kenyans, whoever wins the elections remember that life will have to go on and eventually its us the people who will determine if will have a better Kenya or not.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!

My Holiday Wishes To And Appreciation Of Kumekuchans

The year is drawing to a close. 2007 has been an excitement- packed year mainly due to the elections that are due in a couple days. My interaction with each one of you has been something that has left me a better person. It has been an interaction that I can call fruitful albeit fiery at times. It is with this in mind that I take this opportunity to show my appreciation to you all. As we usher in the New Year, I am seeking forgiveness from anyone that I may have hurt in any of my animated comments. It has never been my intention to hurt anyone, no, never. I have tried (may be without success sometimes) to respect each one here and elsewhere and that is why I am explaining myself. Likewise, I expect respect from all those I respect. I still hold the same opinions I have had all along and will continue to hold them. I once again express my respect for each one of you and their opinions. I wish all of you a merry Christmas, a very beautiful 2008 and of course victory in the elections. Danlieve Where did you go? I hope to see you around more often next year. Kalamari You are my guy Kalamari, believe it or not. I have enjoyed each comment by you. We may have had one or two stand-offs but believe you me I cherished all you had to say here. Your humor always left me in stitches. The way you blend that with serious stuff like those Italians and our little sisters in Malindi cannot go without mention. It is for that reason that I am wishing you more happiness and more importantly, prosperity. Derek I think I have told you everything there was to say in private. You have been my BEST FRIEND in Kumekucha. Your grasp of issues and belief in yourself are what distinguish you. I have enjoyed everything we have shared and if there is someone who has benefited from your contribution here, it is Vikii. Once again I am wishing you and your family a merry Christmas and beautiful times ahead. One love Derek! PKW Wewe ni wangu na unajua. Ha-ha-ha. You are in a class of your own. Like I told you and as you know that I don’t lie, you have been one of those who keep me coming back to Kumekucha. You have been such a blessing here. I don’t believe your pride is all you have. You have much more than that lady. Believe you me major success is awaiting you. I am wishing you a very enjoyable festive season lakini ukumbuke Sio Lazima. I know you have decided to chillax but I hope to see a rejuvenated PKW here next year. Chris And who are you?—Kidding. Thank you very much Chris for giving us a forum to air our views. That was very kind of you. You know where me and you fall out, don’t you? I will lobby for your appointment as Dr. Mutua’s replacement. You are a smart spin doctor bro. I have admired the pride you have in your family especially H. Once again say hi to them and tell them I wish them more happiness. Please do not run away after losing the elections-ha ha ha. Merry Christmas. Luke Wewe ni mtu wangu. I want you to live to be the oldest person in the world. You are a NICE person Luke. I have at times gotten highstrikali accompanD by Essau ukhunayanyi, sorry I only instated that jokly because you are my cuSin. Bro you are an amazingly cool guy. Let me go straight to the point without bleading with you; Thank you for being the neutralizing person in this blog. You are one of those I will miss most if I quit reading Kumekucha. It is for that reason that I am wishing you a long life full of happiness. Taabu Do you have an idea why I called you Mwalimu? Because that is what you are. You have not been an ordinary e-cop but a fatherly one. Thank you so much for being my BB. I know I have been wayward at times but you always had a way of reigning me in. You are the most valuable blogger here Taabu and I am not flattering you. You are not only that but also a friend to me. Mungu akipenda tutagongana and don’t forget you will be the Logistics Manager in my 2012 campaigns. I wish you and your family very happy holidays and prosperity. May God bless you. Sayra We need many Sayras here. Thank you so much for sticking around. I am embarrassed the first comment I read from you was an attack on my person. I am proud your last comment on the blog is an endorsement of my views. That just shows how much we have come to understand each other. I am wishing you success in all your endeavors. And by the way, ummmhhhh—never mind. Karol Acha kupotea hivo wewe. Merry Christmas and happy new year. Ritch No doubt my second BB after Taabu. You have always been there to draw our attention to the things that matter like the HIV/ AIDS scourge and integrity in both our personal and public lives. You have on a number of times gotten me asking whether I am on the right path.I wish you and, why not, your wife, a very happy life. Have a very happy holiday and remember that Kenya needs you. Thank you bro. Sue I know what you think but believe me Susana, you are one of those I respect for taking a position. I like the way you have stood up to be counted. I am wishing you and your family a merry Xmas and I hope to see you back in the hood in January regardless of the outcome of the election. Sawa? Phil Wewe ni mtu wangu wa nguvu. You have an unshakable faith and I am very proud of that. Our clashes here and there may appear to some people as animosity but will you believe me you are one of those I hold dearest to me in Kumekucha? Remember you promised me some Nyam chom and I want to have that immediately after the announcement of the election results. You just remember you have to top it up with 48 bottles of Tusker Malt—They have those in Kiboko pub ha ha ha. Anyway bro, keep the faith. If all young people were as politically aware as you, Kenya would be miles ahead. It is clear to me you love your country and that’s major. I wish you and those dear to you very happy lives. Eh and by the way, if those ODM guys don’t pay you, I have Mutula’s phone number. Sawa? All The other Friends I used Chris’ list of contributors. You are all awesome people. I wish each one of you a merry Christmas and a happy new year. All Anonymouses, tafadhali tafuteni majina, ama vipi?

The Day After: Friday, 28th December, 2007

I have a racking headache this morning. Yesterday was a tough, nay, gruelling day. Yeah, and so much so. It was Election Day; the most competitive, much anticipated issue-based election since independence.

I was among the last people at the polling station having stood in the hot sun for almost half a day. Yeah, and the turn out was something to behold. Scores of people stood in queues, braving the hot sun, to ultimately cast their votes!

I hardly slept a wink last night. My neighbours next door (three bachelors who stay in the same room) just wouldn’t let me. Their high-pitched radios (as they kept count of the number of votes from polling stations the country over, thanks to the leading channel), raucous laughs, guttural voices and frequent screams as beer bottles fell to the floor, were just tormenting.

Everything is quiet this morning save for the throbbing headache between my ears. The throbbing is as if tangible. And for no apparent reason at all, my heart is pounding savagely (as if I am climbing a precipitous mountain).

Now I start recalling. A day before the polls, I wagered my friend Mark ksh 5000/- that my choice for president would win the polls with a landslide victory. I was more than confident that this would be the case. Then, where is this jittery feeling coming from?

If my choice for president does not win the elections, then, I'll have to part with my precious five thao. Not a pretty picture at all.
But, then, who says he will not win.

Just as this thought takes its form in my mind, two pictures (so vivid and life-like) suddenly cascade in my mind’s eye; one from left to right, the other from right to left.

The two pictures are those of Raila and Kibaki. Both of them are smiling. In fact, one of them is grinning like a Cheshire cat. Their lips are moving as if trying to tell me something.

I strain my inner ears but fail to hear anything.

I look at the wall clock. It is 6:30am. I think it is time to put all my fears to rest. I ‘trudge’ to my wall unit and almost simultaneously switch on both my TV and radio.

The news on radio and TV is replete and inundated with election-related news. Reports are coming in from all parts of the country. The number of votes each candidate has received in various parts of the republic is mentioned.

My heart lurches. No, no, what I am hearing can’t be true. Those unflattering number of votes can’t be those of my chosen president. No. Never.

Almost instantly I decide what I‘ll spend the rest of the day doing.

“Counting the votes. Yes, that’s what I am going to do the rest of the day. I can’t leave anything to chance, can I?”

I also decide to call on my neighbours later in the day to compare my notes with that of their vigil last night.

I fetch a pen and some foolscaps and get ready for the task ahead of me. Oh, I had almost forgotten. I usually take a hot cup of coffee at around this time of the day. And today it will do me a whole world of good.
A steaming cup of coffee.

Elections 2007: What Consequences?

As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.

If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?

If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?

How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?

What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?

And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.

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Vindication Is At Hand

Guest post by Sam Okello

Fellow Kenyans,

In just three days, the journey the Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga started in the eighties will enter a new phase. With his election to the presidency, a matter approved from on high, the nation will embark on the final leg of a chapter that should have closed in the sixties, immediately after independence, but never did. I'm talking about national reconciliation and the creation of a nation that works for everyone.

What we've witnessed in the years since President Jomo Kenyatta took oath to lead the nation to prosperity has been the unequal distribution of national resources and the selective development of pockets of the nation. The result is that vast areas of Kenya remain sinfully underdeveloped, while others wallow in wealth and boast some of the richest Kenyans.

But what is more disturbing is the increasing tribalization of the nation. The shameless manner in which President Kibaki constituted his Cabinet and other key appointments is a case in point. He was obviously acting in the same way Presidents Kenyatta and Moi acted when it was their turn. The sad thing is, with President Kibaki, a man Kenyans voted for in droves, suffering wananchi finally decided that unrepresentative governments should not lead Kenya. He betrayed the trust, just like Moi and kenyatta before him. And so in three days Kenyans will vote to right the wrongs that have been allowed to go on for forty years.

When that happens, there's only one word that can and will describe the change that will have taken place. VINDICATION. It will be a vindication of the ideals our freedom fighters fought for. A vindication of the Kenya Waruru Kanja thought was possible when he called on us to end the politics of elimination. A vindication of the ideals Bishop Muge tirelessly advocated before his life was painfully snapped out. A vindication of the ideals Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko and JM and Masinde Muliro were killed trying to help take root in Kenya. Indeed, it will be a vindication of the one thing Kenyans have known all along...that when all is said and done, deep down we all long to live in peace and harmony one with another.

That's why about three weeks ago I dared to say that the Hon. Raila Odinga was...

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The ODM Is A Haven Of Fallacies

In exactly three days, Kenyans are trooping to polling stations to cast their votes. They will be voting for their civic and parliamentary representatives as well as for a president. A lot has been written in this blog about these elections. A lot has been said here about each of the main presidential candidates. A lot of opinion polls have been published here and a lot of reactive comments posted. The party that has received the most favorable coverage is clearly the ODM, both by the blog owner and by commentators. It is not very hard to figure out the political inclinations of the bulk of the Kumekucha readership. As Phil says, they are taking advantage of the facility given to them by Chris and that is very much in order. But what exactly is the ODM? Who drives the ODM and do they honestly believe an iota of what they advocate? These are pertinent questions that cannot be wished away. The ODM has perfected the concept of Cognitive Dissonance. They preach water and drink wine. According o them, their pet subjects of tribalism and corruption are very flexible concepts open to different interpretations. They preach tribalism in all their rallies and turn around to accuse their opponents of the same. They talk ‘very seriously’ about their determination to fight corruption without telling us exactly how they will bring to book those within their ranks who are themselves ‘masters of the game’. One is described as being corrupt as long as he/she is not in their camp, but the moment they cross over, they are cleansed by the forgiving blood of Raila Odinga and his five angels in the Pentagon. One good example of this is Musalia Mudavadi’s involvement in the country’s biggest scam ever, the Goldenberg fraud. Mudavadi was Raila’s trump card in the pre Kibaki-Tosha Rainbow Alliance. When he chickened out of the race and endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta’s candidacy, Raila Odinga hit him hard on the Goldenberg scam. “Mudavadi was the Finance minister in 1993. He first paid out the first Shs 5.8 billion in export compensation and then the Shs13.5 billion. I know what I am talking about. I stand for the truth and the VP and the president should come out and prove me wrong.” These are not my words, they are Raila Odinga’s on the evening of November 16th 2002. He said these words at Meru’s Kinoru stadium in the company of JJ Kamotho, William Ntimama and Matthew Adams Karauri in defense of Prof. George Saitoti whom he had taken to court over the same matter earlier on. On 10th December 2007, he gave not a very different recitation the only difference being the replacement of Mudavadi with Prof. Saitoti. "We have a President who sees ahead. He is not a tribalist but a visionary. That is why we said "Kibaki Tosha,” Raila Odinga said this on July 18th 2003. The moment Kibaki fired him from his cabinet, he became a tribalist. I said here a while ago that someone who wants to be the president of a country like Kenya must have both the uprightness and the sufficient maturity to acknowledge that you can never re-write history no matter how hard you try. It is a pretty bad idea for a presidential candidate to shift positions at will because he is definitely going to bounce into a hell lot of problems sooner or later. While still on the issue of corruption, should the captain as they call him, Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto be allowed to come anywhere near the moral high ground? The issue of the molasses will keep cropping up whether we like it or not. In the last few days, Kumekucha and Kenya’s mainstream media have been full with little lectures on how the molasses deal was a clean one. Very few people buy that crap and it is important for Odinga and his family to explain to Kenyans how a piece of land that cost Shs 4 million in 1976 would go for Shs3.7 million 25 years later------Some seriously massive depreciation right there! Musalia Mudavadi is synonymous with the Goldenberg scam. He is also said to be a key architect of what came to be referred to as The Anglo-leasing conman ship. People like William Ruto and Henry Kosgey do not even deserve a hearing in a court of law. That would be a waste of time and resources. They should be captured and frog-marched to the nearest police cell. And that effectively leaves only Najib Balala and Charity Ngilu as the clean faces of ODM. Now the problem is nobody even within the ODM itself has any regard for these two. A week ago, Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother said that Ngilu’s relevance was only if she could deliver some votes and parliamentary seats from Eastern province. What that means is that she is of zero value to the movement because we all know it would be easier for Mumbi Ngaru and Tony Gachoka to deliver Central than for Ngilu to deliver Eastern. Poor Ngilu, she has even been forced to rediscover her musical skills if only to please his majesty. Najib Balala on the other hand would make a good minister for Culture and Social services whereby his job would be meeting women groups all over the republic. Then coming to ODM’s policy document which they call a manifesto but which in actual sense is a potpourri of high sounding lies and fantasies, I ask; who believes a thing about their promises? Propaganda mongering is what I consider to be ODM’s core competency. I know every adjective in the book will be unleashed on me but honestly, who believes that these fellows will allocate 60% of the GDP to fund CDF projects after channeling 10% to Infrastructure development? How will they be able to foot the salaries of civil servants and the additional 60,000 teachers they are hiring in the next six months? How are they going to take care of major government operations like the facilitation of the armed forces, free primary and secondary education and provision of “Affordable health care” to wananchi? How are they going to pay members of the Judicial service commission, The parliamentary service commission and even the public Service commission before they discard it? These are not idle questions; these are genuine questions begging for genuine answers. We don’t want a manifesto that is ‘voidable’ upon assumption of office. Give us realistic goals and the roadmap towards the realization of those goals. I agree that reorganization and governance change should be undergone about as major surgery, but I also believe it should be as well planned and as effectively executed. While I have no doubt in my mind that the ODM is losing the elections, I do not understand the heroic receptions they have been getting in some parts of the country. This is partly good because having a strong opposition is something the country badly needs, but it is worrisome that there are Kenyans who honestly consider these fellows worthy of leading a nation. “Why does someone believe you when you say there are 4 billion stars but check when you say the paint is wet?”

Kenya's Police Commissioner Imposes 'Curfew' in KICC

Kenya Police Commissioner Major-General Mohammed Hussein Ali has reportedly issued orders purporting to impose what is literally a curfew within and around KICC during the period 28-29th December at which time the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) is due to officially announce the winner of the presidential elections. Meanwhile, Government spokesman announced that 28th December has been gazetted to be a Public Holiday; without necessarily informing the public that movement within and around KICC on 28th December has been 'outlawed' like the police commissioner claims.

It is instructive to recall that sometime in October this year, Maj-Gen Ali unashamedly banned the singing of the National Anthem of the Republic of Kenya at ODM public rallies terming them "seditious". Sedition is capital offence in Kenya. At that time, the police commissioner issued explicit orders to the police force to cancel, break up or stop any meetings at which the National Anthem is sung! Thankfully, no arrests have ever been reported of any Kenyan for publicly singing the national anthem.

Maj-Gen Ali, a career military officer, ought to take some lessons in public administration as well as obtain an understanding of what democracy is all about. Not only are these so called decrees a blatant transgression of human rights and freedom of assembly, they are also highly unconstitutional. Perhaps if Kenya was a police state, then we could begin to understand where Maj-Gen Ali was coming from.

Interestingly, Raila Odinga has repeatedly quoted the lyrics of the national anthem in many of his charged campaign rallies - something that the ODM-K candidate has attempted to emulate in ODM-K's modest Uhuru Park Rally this afternoon with mixed reactions.

Mwiraria, Biwott UK Visa Ban: Yet Another Terrible Embarrassment for Kenya

When the Standard published an exclusive report on 21st December 2007 that Cabinet Minister David Mwiraria and the immediate former Keiyo South MP, Mr Nicholas Biwott, had been expressly barred from traveling to the United Kingdom after their visas were rescinded, the matter was quickly swept out of the limelight by presidential opinion polls that have been raining on Kenyans. Even the Sunday newspapers that purport to carry extensive news and political analysis have failed to publish on this scandalous event. If the truth be told, the news could not have come at a worse time for President Kibaki's PNU coalition.

Considering that both Mwiraria and Biwott travel on Kenyan diplomatic passports (see the 'D' preceding their passport number below), the visa ban is a most embarrassing drawback for Kenya as a country and also for President Kibaki who is trailing his main challenger in the opinion polls with less than a week to the general elections. You can be sure, ODM is working on this and clip will be aired on TV prime time as "advertisers announcement" before the polls.

According to the Standard report, a RED ALERT travel advisory has been circulated to five international airlines that depart from the JKI Airport Nairobi with the names of four prominent individuals including the Charterhouse Bank MD, Mr Sanjay Kumar Ramniklal and that of his brother Manoj Ramniklal Panacha Shah of Kingsway Tyres. The two brother used to run Charterhouse bank (currently under CBK management and under receivership) that was last year implicated in massive tax-evasion that has yet to find any successful conviction in courts.

Airline sources in JKIA confirmed that they received an ‘Immigration Alert’ from the British High Commission in Nairobi informing them of the cancellation of UK visas for the four individuals. In a letter headed "Alert" to the airlines, the Commission stated: "The above named were issued with UK visas. However, these visas have now been cancelled and are no longer valid for travel to the United Kingdom. "I would be grateful if an alert be placed on your systems and the relevant staff be notified. Please contact the Visa Section at the British High Commission immediately on the above numbers if a date of proposed travel to the UK is known, or if they are encountered at the airport". The letter contained the full names of the four individuals and their passport numbers; Biwott (D007***), Manoj (B093***), Mwiraria (D008***) and Sanjay (B068***)

Meanwhile British diplomatic sources in Nairobi stressed that the decision had ‘nothing to do with Kenyan domestic politics’ and had come after ‘extensive legal and ministerial consultations’ in Whitehall. "Early this year we decided to make full use of our immigration rules to deny individuals entry to the U.K. in full support of efforts to combat corruption here," High Commission Spokeswoman Charlie Williams told the Standard.

Mwiraria, Kenya's Environment Minister, resigned (read sacked) from the cabinet early 2006 after he was linked to the unresolved Anglo-Leasing scam, but was re-appointed mid-2007. Anglo Leasing involved the payment of more than $250 million in government funds to non-existent firms for high-tech 'terrorist proof ' passports and police forensics labs which forced the resignation of three cabinet ministers and drawing criticism from donors concerned Kibaki's administration was failing in its declared war on graft. This scandal forced the resignations (read sackings) of Messrs. David Mwiraria, Chris Murungaru and Kiraitu Murungi after Githongo, through BBC, aired tape recordings that implicated Mwiraria and Murungi. Despite opposition from donors and opposition politicians, the latter two have since been reinstated. The Vice President - Moody Awori - although a signatory to one of the contracts, escaped 'resigning' by the skin of his teeth because the civil society and opposition MPs could not master enough pressure to force his sacking.

Nicholas Biwott, a powerful minister in the previous KANU government of President Daniel Arap Moi, was the prime suspect in the 1990 unresolved murder of foreign minister, Robert Ouko. Biwott was also tied to some corruption cases in the 1990s including the multi million and also unresolved Goldenberg scam.

Kenya is a former British colony and the two countries maintain strong historical, diplomatic and bilateral partnership. Another of Kibaki's inner circle, former Internal Security minister Chris Ndarathi Murungaru also had his British and USA visas revoked in 2005 and has filed a suit in a London court to challenge the revocations.

PNU Implausible Assumptions

Guest post By John Maina

Many have banked and presumed that the incumbent will get all the votes in the voters rich Gema region and that Raila chances of gaining any significant votes are miniature. The assumptions is that unlike past elections, this time around their will be an almost 90% turn out in this region and these votes are securely bagged by the incumbent translating into a walk over. Their has even been talks that the Gema region gives the incumbent unassailable edge against Raila as the electorate will turn up in their masses to solidify and protect the presidency leaving the region.

Albeit tribal and retrogressive to blow ones own horn over such a strategy, I believe it is a myth and may turn out to be the last straw that broke the camels back for the incumbent, as it is likely to backfire and disappoint. The failure of this strategy will eclipse all other stillborn PNU strategies such as the dishing out of districts, fake Muslim MOU, Raila’s unelectability, unconvincing economy growth etcetera.

Tellingly, there are some latent indicators that the above strategy is not working and is doomed to fail with only a few days to the election.

Firstly, the incumbent campaign and rallies in his stronghold i.e. Gema region have failed to attract big crowds yet you would expect his supporters to be out in masses to show their solidarity particularly with the threat of the presidency likely to leave their region. The crowds present in these rallies cannot be compared anywhere near to the mammoth rallies recently addressed by Raila in Kisumu and Homa bay his stronghold and some parts of the rift valley.

However, some may argue that Raila has applied similar strategy, which might also backfire on him. But this view is contradicted by his popularity in the region as the crowds in these rallies testify. Another fallacy argument is that crowds do not equate to votes or turnout but as the 2002 elections and referendum crowds indicated many are in for a shock. This has clearly been confirmed by both the genuine and sham opinion polls published in the past few months continuously highlighting Raila’s popularity. Arguments that idealness, noisemaking ‘domo’ and hooliganism in Raila’s stronghold lead to high turnout in rallies should be ignored for they are just myopic and tribal.

Secondly, Just like in the past, voter’s apathy within Gema region is still predominant. Despite high voters registration this does not collate into high turn out and is unlikely to be any different this time round. This is mainly due to voter’s disenfranchisement caused by arrogance and assumptions by those in power that majority of the electorate in the region have benefited from the so-called economical growth. Many may refuse to vote or vote for someone else as a protest.

Thirdly, some of the youths in this region who consist of a large number are also unlikely to vote for PNU and the incumbent as they are seen to represent old men, the status quo and the bourgeois of Kenyan society, which many abhor and blame for the socioeconomic plunder. Importantly, the youths do not cling onto the outdated and disempowering post colonial mentality of tribalism, tribal supremacy and allegiance

Fourthly, still afresh in the minds the electorates, is the brutal experience on the hands of Mungiki and state security war. Such experiences do not win votes but further alienate innocent people to the disadvantage of the incumbent.

Significantly, who has not witnessed the ongoing and embarrassing infighting amongst PNU affiliates and their members? The bickering has been played out in the presence of the incumbent and mainly in the Gema region. Such actions have resulted in disorganized and unpredictable campaigns and rallies. This is a put off to some voters, which may keep there away for fear of violence during the Election Day or even vote for somebody else.

Kalonzo’s factor and the recent slapping of a second individual by the incumbent wife further jolts the assumption that it will be a walk over for the incumbent in the Gema region. The former is seen as a compromise candidate and level headed. For those that cannot stand the incumbent or mention of Raila may cast their lot with Kalonzo.

It is also worth noting that intermarriages between the Gema community and others will also play a part in the former voting for another candidate rather than the incumbent.

Lastly, the fear of isolation from the rest of Kenya by some within Gema might persuade them to vote otherwise or not even go to vote. The referendum experience is still fresh in many people minds some who have seen little for supporting the incumbent during that period.
Thus, it is only fair to say that its unlikely that the expected high voters turn out in the Gema region will come to pass and if it does, it will not entirely be to the advantage of the incumbent over his main rival Raila. It is also true that the Gema vote is a lot more fluid this time round than ever.

The writer is a member of Kenya Capital Investment Group and can be reached at; www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com

Are Ugenya and Rarieda Constituencies Slipping Between ODM's Fingers?

Following the ODM nomination fiascos, on December 10, 2007 at 1:14 pm, this was my comments at Raila07 Wordpress Blog:

"Thank you for this thread Blog Admin. One important voting block that you guys are assuming is ‘in the pocket’ is Luo Nyanza.

Having spent the last one week touring Ugenya and Rarieda, I can tell you for a fact hat unless the pentagon takes its campaigns on the ground in these areas, James Orengo and Dr. Gumbe are facing a very embarassing parliamentary defeats at the hands of Steve Mwanga in Ugenya and Raphael Tuju in Rarieda. In Ugenya, I fail to understand why this highly popular young man known as Steve Mwanga has been let loose in Ugenya. In all honesty, his three year development record is far beyond what the likes of Orengo and Ondiek have done in 30 years. To make matters worse, Mwanga is ‘blessed’ with an bottomless source of cash, and ti appears local ODM officials have got no counter campaign strategy to beat this. This Mwanga man is only 32 years old and although we alll have our doubts about the sustainability of his development projects, most of the villagers (including youth and women) are convinced he is the man to take to parliament. My own opinion is that the pentagon needs to pull Mwanga to one-side and ask him to bid his ptime on parlimentary ambitions and instead support Orengo because age is on his side and James Orengo will be of great value in parliament to ODM than Steve Mwanga. This is a serious issue that might require the ODM pentagone to pitch camp in Ugenya for day or more, otherwise that seat is as good as a gone (and what makes me sick is that he is winning on a KADDU ticket!).

The story is Rarieda is not any different. Tuju’s ‘development’ record is something all villagers in Rarieda are extremely proud of. In as much as they appreciate that they are required to support Raila’s candidature for president, they feel they are not obliged to vote for Dr. Gumbe and reject their own Tuju. This is an area where the ODM needs to visit and sell the importance of having an ODM MP otherwise, Dr. Gumbe, on his own, stands no chance in going to parliament against Raphael Tuju. The moral of this story is that the ODM pentagon has avoided campaigning in Luo Nyanza under the pretext that the voters of Luo Nyanza have granted permission to Raila to seek votes elsewhere. What Nonsense. If you guys dont believe me, the wait for results on 28th December and you will realise for the first time that we have PNU, KADDU, ODM-K and KANU MPs in Luo Nyanza. And that will be repeated in the civic polls too because, most people at the grassroot are against the proposed 3-piece voting system. Please ask the pentagon to do something AS A MATTER OF URGENCY!"

Today, just a few hours after Raila Odinga visited the constituency to campaign for Orengo an aide to Orengo was reportedly killed as campaign violence rocked Ugenya constituency.

With just a week to the elections date, this appears to be a tricky endeavour for the ODM presidential candidate because for the party to fulfill most of its pre-election pledges, some of which have a time frame within which to accomplish, the party will require not just numbers in parliament but individuals well versed in parliamentary and constitution making procedure. My proposals to the party candidate were not to undermine the constitutional right of the Ugenya people but to appreciate the national needs of the country.

Raila has to contend with not just campaigning for local MPs, he also has his own presidential campaign to look after as well as a minor threat in his Langata constituency in the name of an "alliance of convenience" known as Livondo-Ndura.

The issue of three-piece voting whereby a voter casts their ballots in favour of the civic, parliamentary and presidential candidates from the same political party are also a headache not just for ODM but also for PNU. It seems voters are very clear about what they want and the next parliament will have many unexpected MPs.

Mupende Musipende, Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni Is Already In The 10th Parliament

…And He Could Bt The Next Official Leader Of The Opposition

Kamlesh Pattni, now known s brother Paul Pattni is believed to have been the main architect behind the multi-billon shilling Goldenbeg scam. Other tycoons who committed lesser evils like Ketan Somaia are now behind bars but Pattni continues to defy all odds and is now set to be a member of the 10th parliament.

Part of the reason why the man is not behind bars is because he is extremely intelligent and appears to have too much on former President Moi and his hand in Goldenberg.

So how is Pattni going to find his way into parliament even if he does not win a parliamentary seat? Actually Kenda is set to win a number of parliamentary seats countrywide and Pattni will have an opportunity to nominate not only himself but quite a number of other characters into the August house. It all depends on the number of seats that he will win and all signs are that his extremely well financed KENDA political party is going to win quite a number of seats.

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My Step-Mother’s Vote

At this time of the year, we all talk to our folks.

My Dad’s presidential vote looks like it is headed in Kibaki’s direction who he sees as the lesser evil of the 3 main candidates. The fascinating thing is that my step mother’s vote was headed in the same direction until the hot slap of the 12th of the December by Lucy Kibaki.

She says; “I hate to think what I would have done and felt if it was my husband being slapped. And to make matters worse in this case, his wife and children were present. And the man is a Mkamba like us. There is no way Kibaki is seeing my vote now.”

My Dad doesn’t think the slap is a big issue.

Mrs Kumekucha is voting Raila and has ignored all pleas from her brothers and sisters in the house of Mumbi who are rabidly Kibaki and very much anti-Mujaruo. Let me remind you that it was Mrs Kumekucha who said months back that it would take a major miracle and divine intervention for Raila Odinga to be elected president.

But I am happy to report that the various different political views in the family do NOT affect the way we relate. We respect each other’s views.

If I make it back home to vote, I will share with all of you exactly how I vote and why.

True Opinion Poll

click: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7140308.stm

Why Not Make Every Constituency a District?

Freebies, domonomics and miracles aptly defines the three leading presidential candidates. The last few weeks have witnessed Kenyans subjected to political theatre of the absurd. Dolling of freebies by Kibaki leaves one wondering what the role of an administrative district is.

Kibaki's apologists will shamelessly recycle the tired and hollow line that his plastic gifts are meant to bring services closer to people. Yes cheap talk as services but expensive budgetary implementation are neat political gimmicks that are eventually very costly.

Make no mistake. Kibaki is no fool. He is cleverly stealing political thunder from his nemesis by unofficially implementing the raw version of majimbo albeit without spelling the same. The latent point in making every shopping centre a district is to leave majimbo enthusiasts with a distaste for PNU have second thoughts asking in its wake what else to scrap from ODM now that they are home and dry before elections with our district.

Podium of deceit
And if Kibaki's gimmicks make headlines then he stands on the podium of deceit hand in hand with all his other competitors who in the same breath shamelessly promise Kenyans a piece of the moon while shepherding them collectively to hell.

I cannot stop wringing my hands waiting for Thursday to put all this madness behind me at least for the next five years. Meanwhile in the political free fall we are happily enjoying the beauty of every floor oblivious of the hard pavement waiting below to crack our skulls. Poor Kenyans ridding on the back of scoundrels! Kazi iendelee meanwhile.

Shock As Foreign Media Corroborates Kumekucha / NSIS Predictions

Kenya presidential polls thriller NOT headed for a photo-finish says GoK's NSIS

The authoritative Mail & Guardian Newspaper of South Africa has published a comprehensive article in which the author has confirmed "having seen a government intelligence report which predicts that (Raila) Odinga would win with 5,6-million votes, or 55,9%, placing (Mwai) Kibaki in second place with 3,1-million votes or 31,09%, and (Kalonzo) Musyoka third with 1,2-million votes, or 12,9%."

These predictions are chillingly similar to those posted on this forum on 14th December 2007, which read in part........

"Unofficial opinion poll survey done by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) and leaked to this blogger by an insider shows that;

With 100% average turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;
With a 80% turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.

The leaked NSIS data does not show/mention Kalonzo Musyoka nor any other presidential candidates. These are the figures that senior cabinet ministers and the president’s close friends (read athuri) are scratching their heads over as of this morning."

The Mail and Guardian predictions are also very close to those published by Kumekucha a few days before the so called Gallup and Steadman reports.

Before PNU enthusiasts jump to bash this blogger, it will be useful to say that the Mail & Guardian newspaper (popularly known as M&G) is weekly investigative newspaper, published by M&G Media in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a strong focus on politics, government, the environment, civil society and business. M&G is a respected media house in this part of the world and has won numerous international media awards including the prestigious "IPD Best International Newspaper Award."

On the other hand the National Security Intelligence Service run by the Government of Kenya is a leading intelligence outfit in Africa. With an annual budget of Kshs.4b (approximately US$55m) and like all other intelligence organisations, the NSIS is mandated to gather and exploit secret information. Accordingly, it identifies conditions that threaten Kenya's political, economic and social stability and "subsequently develops opportunities and strategies to neutralise such threats on behalf of the Government of Kenya." It is not clear whether this mandate includes "neutralising" an act by Kenyan voters as well. The NSIS budget, like those of Office of the President, are kept at arms length whenever the Auditor General is in town.

Back to opinion polls, sources further reveal that the Nation Media Group CEO, Linus Gitahi, has been under intense pressure from PNU Chief Electoral Advisor Stanley Murage and Kibaki Tena Campaign Manager Lee Karuri to suspend/cancel publication of the groups weekly opinion polls from three different research companies that have persistently shown Kibaki trailing Raila, but the NMG Board of Directors would hear none of it considering the Standard is breathing down the Nation's neck in daily newspaper sales index, especially in this thrilling pre-election period. Mr. Murage remains on the civil service payroll and will most certainly work for the in-coming president in the first few weeks/months in office.

Because the GoK is made up of politicians, it is almost certain that the NSIS election intelligence report could be the main reason for the marked increase in intensity of campaigns by President Mwai Kibaki and his chief rival Raila Odinga whom the PNU suspects has his own parallel intelligence within the NSIS "since Raila has been receiving carbon copies of similar intelligence data as the president".

It is an open secret that the PNU opted to hire two foreign political scientists from South Africa following revelations by the same NSIS reports that Kibaki was headed for an massive electoral defeat by Raila ostensibly because Raila is receiving "free" consultancy services from one feared spin-doctor Dick Morris.

It was also not lost on observers that last week Mwai Kibaki chickened out of a public debate challenge by Raila Odinga out of fear of having to contend with an angry and betrayed electorate if gathered intelligence was anything to go by.

Interestingly, early this week, an official trip to Luo Nyanza by the Head of State (to formally open the Japanese funded Kshs. 13b Sondu Murui Power Station) was called off at the last minute after intelligence reports showed that the Head of State was likely to suffer public humiliation - like his predecessor Daniel Arap Moi - at the hands of ODM supporters if he went ahead with the trip. The same trip was to be used as a PNU campaign platform in what is Raila's stronghold and a district was due to be created in the Rarieda constituency. This is not to say that the Head of State (and Mrs. Lucy Kibaki) have not had to contend with ODM placard waving supporters and demonstrators in areas previously assumed to be "safe" like Western, Kisii/Gucha, Nairobi, Coast and North Eastern. These events have been given a blackout by mainstream media mostly out of fear of a backlash by the no-nonsense first lady. An incident at a Kibaki campaign rally turned very embarrassing a few days ago when a large crowd virtually blackmailed the president into creating a district for them.

All said and done, interesting times lie ahead for Kenya.

Kenya's Watergate II is back

Are the revealed findings of the publicly commissioned Ndungu report made public yesterday yet another incomplete draft maliciously leaked to the public for expedient political purposes?Nothing expedient though about the part of the report indicating Kenyans have lost more than ksh 53 billion to land grabbers in the last 10 years; however bearing in mind that the figure of ksh 53 billion is simply a tag assigned by Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), the true amount if known is probably a figure so shocking that Kenyans would be left staggering in unbelief at the sum
Politics aside, this report in particular highlights the grief that can be caused by the abuse of land, a commodity belonging to respective native communities wherever they are found. If the youth are future leaders of tomorrow, land is not to be treated with the same dishonesty. one way or another we and the next government of the day must decide once and for all and now how we are going to regulate the use of ardhi in the republic so that millions will no longer be poor because vast amounts of land is in the hands of a few who have acquired it illegally. Here again corruption monster reared its ugly head and scared off our dishonourables from making something out of numerous commissions of inquiry into the issue of land allocations
PNU or ODM, you have a royal land battle awaiting you on the other side of victory

Increase Your Vocabulary

THE 2007 KENYA POLITICAL WORD A DAY CALENDAR

word for today: - parliament - pronounced pa' lee' a' meant' - a word describing a group of people determined to do exactly opposite what they were elected to

words for tomorrow: -28th December

Mbeki Handed Defeat as Reward for Success

Voters have no respect for global images politicians curve for themselves while ignoring local issues. By ousting Thambo Mbeki and elevating Jacob Zuma (aka JZ) as the new ANC leader, South Africans have sent a clear message of who is boss.

To see the face of Africa's 'superpower' so forlorn in defeat smacks of both betrayal and steadfastness. And give it to JZ. He may not be that sophisticated and no great thinker but he has the pulse of the masses at his fingertips.

Mbeki fired him in 2005 and he knew what do: go back to the masses and root for them by reminding them that they are the majority and the so-called growing middle class is a dream they cannot afford without sleeping. And what a sweep revenge to see Mbeki embracing JZ as the winner yesterday. So what do we learn from down south as Kenyans?

Well the lessons can be as numerous as the shades unity and oranges. But one thing is for sure: voters don't give a hoot about a leader's personal profile when their immediate needs are not factored in. They are ready to sup with the devil who identifies with their course no matter the cost.

Moral compass dismissed
Even the misgivings on JZ from South Africa's moral voice Desmond Tutu went unheeded. Cosatu guys told him to take leave and provide his moral campus to barbers navigating the sand dunes in Sahara. Africa's present day saint Madiba must be justifiably a disappointed man to see his ship leaking like a sieve in his lifetime.

Mbeki may have tried to find establishing his own credibility in stepping into Mandela's oversize shoes. But he also ended up addressing the big picture oblivious of the important trees making the forest. Now Sa have two centres of power: the presidency under Mbeki and the ruling party ANC with JZ. More frustration in governance as politicians position themselves for the next political dispensation.

So who will shepherd the Nepad ship with the captain drowning? Africa renaissance may have just been a painless still birth. Comrade JZ ('where is my machine gun' is his rallying call) obviously has no time for such high-sounding political theatrics. And the political domino effects enters Africa via the cape from Australia. Who is next?

The Italians are raping our Kenyan babies in Malindi !!

If you come across a tourist whose passport reveals multiple entries to Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Singapore, it is likely that when you continue flipping the pages, you will see a couple of entries to Kenya. If you forcefully peruse his luggage, you may find old chattered airline tickets or taxi receipts evidencing frequent visits to Malindi. Further interrogations will confirm short stays in various private and exclusive villas (primarily owned by Italians). At this eureka-like stage, a man of average intelligence acting prudently will not wish to view the tourists' picture album….especially if it is resting on a box of assorted candies, lollipops and bubble gum. My dear Kenyans, we are at the advent of the most profitable child sex tourism industry in Africa.
Documentaries of lions hunting impalas at Tsavo National Park are gradually being replaced with those of white pony-tailed sandal wearing tourists preying on beautiful black Kenyan babies. Elephant tusks, leopard skins and rhino horns are no longer the much sort out trophies; Instead, local virgin boys and girls define the holy grail. Yes my fellow ODMers and PNUers, the child sex pest has arrived and his/her mighty thirst will not be quenched by the award winning Tusker beer. This particular beast from overseas will only drink the juice of innocence spewing from the undeveloped private parts of our most treasured assets i.e. our children or in other words, our future.
The debate on how Kenya finds itself depicted in child pornographic videos is endless. We all agree that poverty has been known to skew perceptions of morality. The story of the thief stealing the bread to feed his starving family conveniently comes into play. You see, the parents who choose to turn the other way as their own babies bring home a couple of sleazy dollars after spending nights in Italian villas, are quick to accept that the 'end justifies the means'. The villagers/society have chosen to ignore the awkward walking style of these toddlers, after all, how are they supposed to feed themselves. We all know what happens to our young girls when they get married to old German men and are shipped to the land of the third Reich…so long as they send back some Deutschmarks (now Euros), we are all set. Oh, by the way, some of our very own grown Kenyans gleefully indulge in this rape. My point here is that we are all complacent to this evil that is slowly tainting the image of our country.
So what next? How do you stop a buibui clad baby from succumbing to the scourge from abroad? Education? How do you explain the ruinous behavior to parents whose only means of survival is the sleazy dollar? What about disease? To what extend is personal responsibility the only answer? Are some of us just born sexually deviant? What would happen if lets say, the government used the police to consistently swoop the villas, discos and prominent hotels that are conduits to this evil? How about billboards of caution at every corner? Maybe deportation of perpetrators and repossession of filthy villas?
It would be unfortunate if we allow our country to be listed in the yellow pages of sleaze destinations.

Is Gallup’s Shocker About A Kibaki Lead True?

One can do all sorts of surveys and polls these days. In fact there is one you can do without leaving your desk—everything is done online. Let me take this opportunity to emphasize to Kumekuchans that the survey I published recently was NOT done in this way. In fact a lot of the data collection I did on my own. Actually I have been traveling a lot over the last few weeks and that is why my posts were so few and irregular then.

This I can tell you with all certainty; the Gallup poll is pure rubbish. The problem with the other polls is that they concentrate too much in towns and major trading centres which I noted on my trip this time is heavily populated by people from all corners of the republic and not just the people in the area.

Something else I cam assure you is that Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed and the results on 27th will be very difficult to swallow for many seasoned politicians. The message I got on the ground was very clear. It was;

“You guys somehow fixed the nominations, lets see you fix the elextions on the 27th.”

What pollsters need to tell Kenyans is what has caused the electorate to change their minds so many times as we head to the elections? Then they need to explain how...

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Liverpool Goes Red as Chelsea Sees Blue

The grand slam Sunday left bitter taste in the mouths of Chelsea and Liverpool fans. Billed grand slam because the so-called big four English Premier League clubs play each other to avoid any whiff of match fixing nor advantage, the weekend games never disappointed.

Starting at Anfield Carlos Tavez drew blood for Manchester United and the noise from Merseysiders didn't translate into any solace as Liverpool went down 1-0. And that made United top the table but it only lasted for under three hours.

William Gallas spoilt Grant's party of being unbeaten as Chelsea Manager i 14 successive matches. The 1-0 scoreline for Arsenal brought back Mourinho's ghost given that Arsenal NEVER defeated Chelsea during Jose's tenure as boss from 2004.

That Arsenal did not beat Chelsea during Jose Mourinho's entire tenure as Blues manager but have defeated Avram Grant's team at the first attempt was loaded massage pregnant with the personality and presence of the SPECIAL ONE.

So with the Blues literally seeing the sky colour 10 and 9 points adrift Gunners and United respectively, the title race may just be shaping up into a two-horse race between the two. But it may not be over till it over.

Despite some resilience and power play by Sheva, Drogba's absence was so loud that Grant must be cursing under his own breath what evil became of the Ivorian. No wonder the Drog earned a fourth place berth as Kaka pipped Ronaldo and Messi to clinch Fifa footballer of the year 2007 award.

Increase Your Vocabulary

THE 2007 KENYA POLITICAL WORD A DAY CALENDAR

word for today: - slap - pronounced ss' lap' - a word describing first line of defence privileges with full immunity accorded to sitting first ladies - an instant vote diminisher

word for tomorrow: -parliament

Opinion Polls Are Raining On Kenyans

After Chris published results of the controversial results of the Kumekucha survey on the forthcoming Kenya polls, Steadman Group of Kenya has released its final results this afternoon.

According to Steadman, their final poll shows Raila Odinga still leads at 45 %, while Mwai Kibaki follows closely at 43% and Kalonzo Musyoka trailing at 10%. Steadman also announced that ODM remained the most popular political party at 45%, followed by PNU at 37% and Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya with 9%.

Steadman interviewed a total of 6,111 voters in all of Kenya's 210 constituencies. This works out to approximately 29.1 people per constituency. The survey was done between 11th and 16th December 2007.

Meanwhile from Washington DC, Gallup Poll also published an opinion poll report of Kenyan voters that shows the two leading presidential hopefuls are still in a close race, just 10 days before the Dec. 27 election. Results from the Gallup Poll conducted between Dec. 5 and Dec. 14, 2007, show 44% of registered Kenyan voters say they intend to vote for incumbent President Mwai Kibaki from the Party of National Unity (PNU), while 43% say they plan to vote for Raila Odinga, who is running on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket. Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) elicits the support of 12% of registered Kenyan voters. Read the detailed Gallup Poll report here.

When the presidential results are finally announced in slightly of a week's time, Kenyans and the world will be eager to know who their next president will be. Hopefully, it will end the anxiety that 'opinion polls' are causing.

Happy Holidays But Watch for Scoundrels

It is yet another festive season again with wishes and goodwill messages flying in all directions. But watch out on the messages you receive because as they say the devil resides in the details.

Politicians may be the known voluble scoundrels but they probably come a distant third to legal scoundrels going by the name of learned friend aka lawyers. Sample this goodwill note for Mutula Kilonzo to all his clients.

From Kajwang-Kamau-Kilonzo Advocates ("the wishor") to you ("the wishee")
Please accept without obligation, implied or implicit, our best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, politically correct, low stress, nonaddictive, gender neutral, celebration of the summer solstice holiday, practised within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all.

We wish you a financially successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2008, but with due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures or sects, and having regard to the race, creed, colour, age, physical ability, religious faith, choice of computer platform or sexual preference of the wishee.

By accepting this greeting you are bound by these terms that:

* This greeting is subject to further clarification or withdrawal.

* This greeting is freely transferable provided that no alteration shall be made to the original greeting and that the proprietary rights of the wishor are acknowledged. This greeting implies no promise by the wishor to actually implement any of the wishes.

* This greeting may not be enforceable in certain jurisdictions and/or the restrictions herein may not be binding upon certain wishees in certain jurisdictions and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wishor.

* This greeting is warranted to perform as reasonably may be expected within the usual application of good tidings, for a period of one year or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first.

The wishor warrants this greeting only for the limited replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wishor. Any references in this greeting to "the Lord", "Father Christmas", "Our Saviour", "Rudolph the red nosed reindeer" or any other festive figures, whether actual or fictitious, dead or alive, shall not imply any endorsement by or from them in respect of this greeting, and all proprietary rights in any referenced third party names and images are hereby acknowledged.

Political Parties And The 10th Parliament

The political temperatures are very high in Kenya. So high that for sometime I feared to publish the results of a countrywide poll I carried out. Well, I finally published it and got exactly what I had expected. Insults and folks saying that this is an ODM blog.

By publishing the provincial breakdown, I will only attract more insults, so I will not publish any more details about my poll. People will not believe the kind of support the candidate previously known as “the unelectable” enjoys in Simoen Nyachae’s Kisii or in most of Nairobi for that matter. Thank you PKW for reserving your comments for the 28th.

I did not publish the polls to upset anybody, I simply documented what the people on the ground are saying.

With this kind of obsession with the presidential elections, very little attention is being paid to the parliamentary elections. And yet whoever is elected president, their success or failure will hinge very heavily on how much support and goodwill they will enjoy from the 10th parliament.

Going by the mathematical law of probabilities...

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