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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Is Gallup’s Shocker About A Kibaki Lead True?

One can do all sorts of surveys and polls these days. In fact there is one you can do without leaving your desk—everything is done online. Let me take this opportunity to emphasize to Kumekuchans that the survey I published recently was NOT done in this way. In fact a lot of the data collection I did on my own. Actually I have been traveling a lot over the last few weeks and that is why my posts were so few and irregular then.

This I can tell you with all certainty; the Gallup poll is pure rubbish. The problem with the other polls is that they concentrate too much in towns and major trading centres which I noted on my trip this time is heavily populated by people from all corners of the republic and not just the people in the area.

Something else I cam assure you is that Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed and the results on 27th will be very difficult to swallow for many seasoned politicians. The message I got on the ground was very clear. It was;

“You guys somehow fixed the nominations, lets see you fix the elextions on the 27th.”

What pollsters need to tell Kenyans is what has caused the electorate to change their minds so many times as we head to the elections? Then they need to explain how...

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13 comments:

Taabu said...

Chris you must have fully padded your cheeks and tightened your skin. Otherwise one wonders where you get the b....to invite predictable bile. Well you ask for it andthey won't disappoint. As for me I am suffering numerial fatigue and constipation for polls. Can't wait for Dec 27 to arrive. That will the ultimate poll.

On the plastic confidence displayed by both front runners they must beknowing a thing we don't. True, nobody enters a ring with folded arms. But we have been told here that ballot papers will be transported in Air Force planes and escorted by policemen and Major (Rtd) Waweru is PNU's director of strategy/logistic. That gem was offered her without solicitation and no need to batter it any more, it is PREGNANT with all intentions.

All the din points to exercices to reverse logic - gatekeeping P because your Q is not upto scratch and blaming it of T. Honesty is one visitorwho has chosen to give us a wide berth Kenyans. We extol virtues of people we don't support just to appear above the fray.

Polls no polls the time of reckoning is here and come Thursday next week Kenya will much the better. Make no mistake we are no isle of peace anymore and imagining that the patience of Kenyans can take the shape of a rubber band is to play Russian roullette. I dare any scoundrels.

Vikii said...

You guys amaze me. Why concentrate on opinion polls when the election is being held in a week's time? You already have an excuse when guess who loses the election. Ati they were rigged. It doesnt matter what you guys feel. As far as I am concerned the government, through The Electoral Commission of Kenya has done everything there was to do to facilitate a free and fair election.

Chris, while I respect your support for Raila Odinga in his bid to be Kenya's leader of official opposition, I find you petty, very petty indeed. The Kibaki camp is telling their opponents to accept the results(As if they have a choice)the same way Raila Odinga asked them to accept the polls while in Garissa the day befoe Yesterday. Did he know the results already? Elections will be free and fair and Kenyans will put everyone where they belong. If any candidate wants to contest the result of a fair poll as usual, they can go ahead and do it. I have faith in the maturity of Kalonzo Musyoka and I am sure he together with the other six candidates will accept the results. That just renders any murmurs by a SINGLE candidate invalid.

" It would be easier to tame a full grown crocodile on the Tana River and leave it with your toddler after only a day or two and expect to find her safe and alive than it would be for Kibaki to lead any electon poll in Kenya now or in the near future."------These are your words.

Mine is that it is actually impossible for Raila Odinga to win any poll not only in Kenya but anywhere in the past, now or in the future. It was impossible for his father to do it, it will prove impossible for him and it will prove impossible for his son. Like Derek said here yesterday, the presidency is not the chairmanship of the Bondo Constituency "Development" committee.

Anonymous said...

I would be very curious to find out your methodology in carrying out your polls. Who did you interview? What questions did you ask? Were these registered voters who intend to vote etc. I am highly skeptical of all the polls flying out there. At the end of the day all tha matters is what happens on the 27th

Taabu said...

Security in numbers is a hollow peremise to base an argument. Or is it a matter of flocking together to GATHER? None of the aspirants wants to give an impression of losing lest they truly lose before the bout next Thursday. Elections is no linear regression bereft of outliers. You only engage prediction tomassage personal egos.

TR said...

I am a keen reader of Kumekucha and have been impressed by the opinions that the contributors make to this blog. Kenyans all over the world are anxiously waiting for the elections next week. According to various opinion polls over the last 3 months the elections are too close to call. What this tells me is that there is no empirical basis to conclude that either the incumbent or his main competititor will carry the day. Some individuals such as Chris on one hand claim to have data to dispute the conclusions drawn by the mainstream pollsters such as Gallup and Steadmans. As a political observer I can only adopt a "wait and see" attitude for doing otherwise would be a biased predisposition without any data to support it. It is for this reason that I fail to understand why Vikkii says and I quote:

"Mine is that it is actually impossible for Raila Odinga to win any poll not only in Kenya but anywhere in the past, now or in the future. It was impossible for his father to do it, it will prove impossible for him and it will prove impossible for his son. Like Derek said here yesterday, the presidency is not the chairmanship of the Bondo Constituency "Development" committee."

The question that comes to mind is on what basis is he making such remarks. Life being what it is, how can one make such an all inclusive statement that excludes a whole generation from some political office? Unless Vikii comes up with a reasonable empirical argument why he is making such a claim, it would be easier to believe Chris' assertions than his (Vikii's).

In my opinion, any reasonable political observe in Kenya today can state with some degree of confident that either Raila or Kibaki will carry the day come 27th. It does not matter who I support. it is the reality that I see from where I am (in the diaspora). Anybody stating otherwise must be in possession of some data that is not publicly available. If this is the case they should declare such data for us readers to analyze.

TR

Vikii said...

And Taabu, the mediocre uniformity of your "opinions" and Chris's amazes me. Is someone being a marionette here? We call it Intellectual Ticky tacky down here.

manta ray said...

The Gallup poll is pure rubbish? based on what premise? Gallup poll is rubbish and yours isn't? who is more credible between you and Gallup? You need to get off your high horse and start walking. You can hate Kibaki all you want but in our view we cannot and will never trust a mercenary politician like Raila. Your pathetic tribal bigotry is what informs your shameless hatred and bias and you need to come terms with that and move on. Kibaki WILL be President and no amount of demonisation will change that. It is also a pity that you can think someone like Raila is capable of changing your and other Kenyans circumstances based on blinkered tribalism and hatred.

Anonymous said...

"Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed", you are very right on this one. After waiting for a matatu on Kangundo road for more than an hour recently, a pickup with campaign stickers comes up and people expect it to stop and give us a lift, the photos resemble the man driving, then the guy just passes without carrying anyone. We all got mad and swore no one will vote for such a mean person. How can he expect votes when he cannot save a situation at hand?

Kenyans on the ground are terribly mad and the main problem is infrastructure so we will vote out this stupid government that has caused us more suffering. There was a post from one of your contributors about Tax collections for every province, it showed Nyanza and Western contribute more to the Kenya Revenue, then how come this provinces have the worst roads????? Kenyan’s from provinces with poor infrastructure should sue this government for misusing their money and discrimination. Shows that fish market that Kimunya was insulting contributed more to the economy than his waru market!

Our only hope is ODM Chungwa Moja Maisha Bora!

Thanks to estate cyber and my son from USA teaching me how to send complaints on the internet.

Mama samaki from Embakasi! (Retrenched pre-maturely what to do)

Phil said...

Gallup, Steadman, etc are far off the mark Chris. These are commercial companies and their policies are driven by PROFIT. Nothing else.

Kenya voters on the other hand are a highly disenfranchised lot. And speak they will shout very loudly on 27th.

I am for the second time in as many months forced to concur with PKW.

Asking Kenyans to wait for another week is not asking for too much.

My election forecasts - which are from the same reliable source and are bankable - are thus:

Turnout: 80% or thereabouts (11,360,000)

And the results wont be far from:
Raila: 55% (6,248,000)
Kibaki: 35% (3,976,000)
Kalonzo: 10% (1,136,000)

Lets review them on 28-29th

Anonymous said...

I am no fan of Raila but I wonder what he did or has done to people like Vikii who appear to see nothing good or positive in this Kenyan politician, who has admittedly, acquired a larger than life political profile in Kenya. But the level of vilification he attracts from opponents makes me wonder. As MK would put it "Kwani Raila alikula mbuzi ya nani?" Vikii, did Raila eat your goat?

Anonymous said...

Gall up int the oldest pollster in US have done US polls since 1936 and their polls for presidential winners have been 100% accurate upto 1992.In 2000 they missed the point by 2%.Going by both steadman and gall up you have a fairly clear situation of how the race is one week before 27th.This being said this is a close call But rest assured KIBAKI HAS THIS IN THE BAG even going by provincial % using 10M (70%) Voter turnout,kibaki leads by 150k to 300k votes.I assure u 1 week from now the margin will be more and Raila will trail by upto 500k votes.7 days to go....

1. Zogby: 2 elections,1.00% error average.
2. IBD/CSM/Tipp: 1 election,2.00% error average.
3. ABC News: 7 elections,3.29% error average.
4. Harris: 10 elections,average 3.70% error average.
5. Gallup: 17 elections,average 4.82% error average.
6. USA Today: 5 elections,5.00% error average.
7. ICR: 2 elections,5.50% error average.
8. NBC News/Wall Street Journal: 4 elections,6.25% error average.
9. CBS News/New York Times: 7 elections,7.00% error average.
10. Battleground: 2 elections,7.00% error average.
11. Rasmussen: 1 election,9.00% error average.

2000: Actual election results,Bush 48%,Gore 48%

Zogby: Predicted 48-46 Gore,off by 2.
Gallup: Predicted 46-48 Bush,off by 2.
USA Today: Predicted 46-48 Bush,off by 2.
IBD/CSM/Tipp: Predicted 46-48 Bush,off by 2.
Pew: Predicted 47-49 Bush,off by 2.
Harris: Predicted 47-47 tie,off by 2 (same results for Harris Interactive),
ABC/WP: Predicted 45-48 Bush,off by 3.
NBC/WSJ: Predicted 44-47 Bush,off by 5.
Battleground: Predicted 45-50 Bush,off by 5.
ICR: Predicted 44-46 Bush,off by 6.
CBS: Predicted 45-44 Gore,off by 7.
Rasmussen: Predicted 49-40 Gore,off by 9.

(I notice I mis-remembered,Rasmussen was actually too low for Bush in his final poll!)


1996: Actual election results,Clinton 49%,Dole 41%

Zogby: 49-41 Clinton,off by 0.
Gallup: 52-41 Clinton,off by 3.
USA Today: 52-41 Clinton,off by 3.
CNN: 52-41 Clinton,off by 3.
NBC/WSJ: 49-37 Clinton,off by 4.
Harris: 51-39 Clinton,off by 4.
ABC News: 51-39 Clinton,off by 4.
ICR: 51-38 Clinton,off by 5.
Pew: 52-38 Clinton,off by 6.
Battleground: 45-36 Clinton,off by 9.
CBS/NYT: 53-35 Clinton,off by 10.

Anonymous said...

I have been in Kumekucha for sometime. Though earlier I used to think that Chris blocks some pro-PNU comments, I think he actually does not. One time, he said that PNU is characterised by inability to intelligently construct points/arguments 'right from the Top'. I was insulted by this. But the way campaigns have been, Chris must have been proved wrong. Talk of the PNU adverts that took ODM with a shocker, clearly showing PNU has some intelligent brains at work. Pole Chris.
Secondly, ODM guys have been putting it this way - that this election is the ruling elite (athuri) on one hand, and the Kenyan voter on the other. How wrong you guys have been. You made PNU supporters feel like they are not kawa Kenyan voters. That the only Kenyan voters are the pro ODM.
While I am against those who say a certain candidate can never win an election (like Vikii, though I think he was just being emotional), I am not for the Chris and his clue still want to put Raila so ahead(Fifty whatever percent), even ahead of scientifically done polls. And they have the odesity to challenge reputable firms polls results, trying to convince us that you have done 'your own polls by talking to the mwananchi' and seeing that it is 'impossible' for Kibaki to win through a free and fair election. This could be a state of denial. All along I have maintained that ODM started campaigning for 07 as soon as NARC govt was sworn in in 02. PNU(and Kibaki) started their campaigns the other day, and you can be sure with Kibaki going to the people and telling them, 'ninawaomba kura yenu' as he always does, dont you think people will consider him? They will, and that is where the difference in polls comes in. Kibaki has been rising.
This being a democratic election, it is too close to call, and therefore like PKW and TR above, a wait and see approach is much more sensible. Phil with his 51%, 35% etc is only wishful thinking. Phil, pls go and vote for your favourite candidate on 27th, coz that is more sensible. Na sii kwa ubaya.

deroo said...

Phil, you are now behaving like a turn-coat. When Raila is on top, the pollsters are fine.

When Ceasar Handa reads a report that gives a massive gap, things are okay. When Jerry Okungu (ODM campainger) Vikii, do you remember him? Make shis own opinion to supprot his employer ala the Odinga Dictatorial Movement Presidential candidates, the results reflect the mood on the ground.

When Gallup, an American institution, from the country of Dick Morris produce their report, Phil goes mental and dismisses them. Did you read that Moi berated president Kendeddy's daughters after they said he was unpopular, that is opinion polls for you.

Lest you forget, in East Africa, there is another perennial loser who uses the HAMMER symbol. His name is Kiiza Besigye. He has always tried but never won, despite the people on the ground hating Museveni's style of leadership.

Kibaki Tena!!!!

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