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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Opinion Polls Are Raining On Kenyans

After Chris published results of the controversial results of the Kumekucha survey on the forthcoming Kenya polls, Steadman Group of Kenya has released its final results this afternoon.

According to Steadman, their final poll shows Raila Odinga still leads at 45 %, while Mwai Kibaki follows closely at 43% and Kalonzo Musyoka trailing at 10%. Steadman also announced that ODM remained the most popular political party at 45%, followed by PNU at 37% and Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya with 9%.

Steadman interviewed a total of 6,111 voters in all of Kenya's 210 constituencies. This works out to approximately 29.1 people per constituency. The survey was done between 11th and 16th December 2007.

Meanwhile from Washington DC, Gallup Poll also published an opinion poll report of Kenyan voters that shows the two leading presidential hopefuls are still in a close race, just 10 days before the Dec. 27 election. Results from the Gallup Poll conducted between Dec. 5 and Dec. 14, 2007, show 44% of registered Kenyan voters say they intend to vote for incumbent President Mwai Kibaki from the Party of National Unity (PNU), while 43% say they plan to vote for Raila Odinga, who is running on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket. Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) elicits the support of 12% of registered Kenyan voters. Read the detailed Gallup Poll report here.

When the presidential results are finally announced in slightly of a week's time, Kenyans and the world will be eager to know who their next president will be. Hopefully, it will end the anxiety that 'opinion polls' are causing.


Anonymous said...

I must say I'm sick and tired of this unopinionated polls. Some pollsters saying Kenyans are decided others cooking figures to make their candidate look good- its exhausting.
One thing I know for sure is none of the pple I know have changed their opinion since the first poll showed RAO at 53%.My friends who are PNU die hards have remained so, those supporting Musyoka still do, so lets wait for Dec 27th

Anonymous said...

With a huge lump stuck in the throat, Phil wrote...

"44% of registered Kenyan voters say they intend to vote for incumbent President Mwai Kibaki from the Party of National Unity (PNU), while 43% say they plan to vote for Raila Odinga..."

This very crucial information was tucked at the far bottom of the post. Mambo bado, it's not over until it's all over. You ain't seen nothing yet.

I've said it before and will say it again, PNU will remain steadfast, cool, calm and elected.

Mark my words.

Merry Christmas to all Kenyans!

Sincerely PNU INSIDER.

Anonymous said...

Steadman is a member of Gallup International. PNU can try rig all they can but Kibaki is going home.

Anonymous said...

Ati Kibaki is ahead in the Gallup polls.

Who is Steadman trying to hoodwink?

Aren't they the local reps of Gallup in Kenya?

So they release a local poll saying one thing and an international one giving a different picture.


Anonymous said...

The same Steadman who put the difference between Raila and Kibaki at 0.3% only to make it 4% two weeks later? Steadman, Gallup, Infotrak, InfoPoll, infoKura etc. .... Raila will be Kenya's 4th President on 28th Dec

kalamari said...

Folks, it’s about time Gallup explained this fallacy of Kibaki being up by 1%. As far as I’m concerned, the ‘Girl-Up’ in Othaya runs that show and is a known consort to a state house operative.

That said, unless you’ve just arrived from Neptune, you cannot deny that Raila has won the hearts and minds of the Kenyan people. Although we Kenyans can smell victory, we cannot afford to underestimate the evil mambo-jumbo powers of the incumbency…as Deroo likes to remind us by throwing big names of rig-masters in air force planes.
Of course there’s what I like to call, ‘The Last Heist of the Kibaki Gang’ i.e. Safaricom IPO …which by the way is being force fed to Wanainchi. You see, the minute jamaas rush to buy fractional shares, ballot boxes in transit will be diverted to PNU gangster hideouts around the country for a proper stuffing. If efforts fail, Kibaki will obey the people’s eviction order and vacate State House; the problem is that he will leave it empty……ever heard of echoes inside the Central Bank vault?
Additionally, we are all awaiting Kalonzo’s fulfillment of the prophecy i.e. his strict commandment to all Kambas of suffrage, in, around and beyond Ukambani, to vote en-masse for Kibaki if and only if they love Kalonzo.

The question is, is Raila ready to face the traditional five day election blitz? Phil, is the arsenal still top secret?

Words of wisdom from Andy Capp: Happiness is having what you need. Success is having what you want.

kalamari said...

Last things first, why in the world would any Kenyan vote for a man who gets heckled into creating districts? Look, I understand that victims of domestic battery are either wives/husbands, but seriously folks, if a president can be intimidated by a bunch of youngsters to the point of creating roadside districts, how can we trust him to handle our affairs with resolve. No offense, but talk about the lack of testicular fortitude.

Silaha said...

Phil et al:

I, like most Kenyans, have been closely observing the opinion polls. I have a keen affection for real data and sober analysis so I took some time this morning to model what these data could mean come December 27th.

The long and the short of it is that using ECK and opinion poll data, with certain simple voter turnout assumptions that I believe are reasonable, Kibaki could end up with 44% of the votes cast versus 42% for Raila and 11% for Kalonzo.

(I have the written the whole thing up in much more detail in my blog.)

What is important for folks to realize is that Kibaki might win without rigging (a.k.a. evil mumbo-jumbo) and without assuming that the opinion polls are wrong.

The key to a Raila victory is high voter turnout in districts populated by non-GEMA and non-Kamba people. Without that he is toast.

It appears that many of us, especially ODM supporters, are working ourselves into a froth and taking temporary leave of our senses resulting in our engaging in hyperbole and emotional reasoning. Don't, it's very dangerous to do so.


Vikii said...

"Testicular fortitude?" Is that Kibaki or one of the other guys? I just read the last line of Kalamari's comment and that's why I am asking. Otherwise i will read both comments as well as the main post when time allows.

kalamari said...

Elections aside, even you Vikii must admit that the country is in grave danger when the head of state is manipulated, intimidated and pushed into a corner only to come out squirming and affirming everything his aggressors/hecklers demand.

It's a matter of calling a spade a spade. Further, it is well known that there are very serious problems at home when one's wife resorts to demonstrating frustrations and anger in public. Very serious problems my friend….oh! and please don't let this be about nyez.

deroo said...

Kalamari, thank you very much for that. I just want to clarify one point.

I did not at any time say that some people are going to stuff the ballot boxes. No, that was not the point. I wanted to draw a catholic picture of the scenario that we have encountered before in the country.

It is like this. The ECK (Chairman appointed by Kibaki) has said that in areas where there is danger of the ballot papers reaching on time, they will be forced to use Kenya Air force planes to transport them. Right. The PNU logistics man is Major General Peter Waweru. When he retired from DOD General Waweru was the head of DOD Logistics and is one of the most respected of his epoch. Sawa. Kenya Air force Eastleigh base is a protected area, so any of those ODM agents who were manipulating figures during the primaries will not just walk into the Airbase. Then ask yourself, what will happen to the ballot boxes. It happened during Moi time and there is every chance of that happening. Whether I wish PNU and my candidate Mwai Kibaki to win, I also have my own democratic misgivings. Is there no fair play there?

Sawa, the ballot papers will be in the hands of people, imagine, appointed by the head of state, and handed over to a person who was appointed by the head of state and stored in government offices that have the portrait of the president hanging. Fikiria sana.

On to the opinion polls Kalamari, go east; go west, they were always going to be like that in the run-up to the elections. I am optimistic that the elections will be fair and will be representative of the current opinion polls, then, there will be that added advantage that the polls have had.

The influence of the polls has been to whip the electorate and sensitise them about the candidates and above all, their chances of being beaten or losing altogether. I have read many times here, people even giving figures about the election results. I might be wrong, but from my own view, I was sure it was going to be like that!

I have said it before Kalamari and you as a regular here can bear me witness; the polls will be about two tribes and their friends. Two tribes and three tribal leaders. Two tribes and the regions they come from. Make the microscopic view of the polls that way and you will get the real picture.

Sorry to refer to this scenario, when I was just joining chuo, the 1997 polls were just around the corner. I worked for the Kennedy Foundation (remember Moi castigating them). We travelled the length and breadth of Kenya. I mean (Vikii can tell you) a place called Migwani, deep into Wote and Masii, Archers Post in Samburu and many parts of the country. I have never had such a sojourn. There was no place that anybody wanted Moi. Nobody spoke anything good about Moi. The report was circulated far and wide. I am being sincere. Who won the elections that year….

Sorry for bring this in your post. There is a lady called Yvonne, she has asked people why they respond to my posts. To her, she has even concluded that “…the same way i will treat your sentiments no need to argue with you. By the way in this same forum i have read your comments and i am like i dont even know why guys like Taabu and Sue keep on arguing with you….

Yvonne, what was your gauge? How did you apply it and why did you feel that you are a little bit better than me. I am not better than you anyway, but why make such a comment. You even talked of stooping low? Pole dada! I don’t play tapo… or kalongolongo. Simply concentrate one your mission. Vote Raila. Vote Musalia and vote Balala.

deroo said...

Yvonne, where is your name and you Sh 1 million (you live in Embakasi and donated one million)

Following extreme pressure by our readers and comments doubting the authenticity of a confidential dossier on the source of funding for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) we publish in full the entire list and their specific contribution..we will publish the list as it is including the abbreviations - For the record we stand by every bit of our publications and challenge anyone named to face this site in court for we have to the letter evidence on more than 20 organizations / individuals named.






1. Mr. C.Njonjo - 25,000,000
2.CMC Motors Grp- 20,000,000
3.CFC Bank 5,000,000
4. Land Rover Group Limited 55,000,000
5. JIAM 25,000,000
6. Pastor Gilbert Deya 20,000,000
7. Gilbert Deya Congregation (UK) 10,500,000
8. Mr.James Ongwae 3,500,000
9.Mr.Bosco Gichana 12,000,000
10. Mr.S.Osamba (Dallas Tx) 6,100,000
11. Tata Tea 50,000,000
12. Tata Consultancy Services 350,000
13.Tata Motors 35,000,000
14. Dr. Jane Konditi 250,000
15.Prof. J.Odoul 300,000
16. Mr.AA Walji 7,000,000
17.Hon.William Ole Ntimama 5,000,000
18. Mr.Zakayo Cheruiyot 4,500,000
19.Mr.Charles Onyancha 300,000
20.Brig. (rtd) Alexander Sitenei 225,000
21. Dick Morris Associates (pro bono services)21,335,000
22.Dr.S.Kosgey 2,500,000
23.Kisumu Simba League 21,750,000
24.Dr.P.Otuoma 250,000
25. Mr. S.Murunga (Kimilili) 8,500,000
26.Tony Texeira 21, 500,000
27. Mr. SS Sodi 150,000
28. Zubedi Group 20,000,000
29. Colourprint (Posters /Caps) 8,000,000
30. Anura Pereira 107, 000, 000
31. J.Okungu 350,000
32. Tony Buckingham 6,000,000
33.Col Tony Spicer 17,000,000
34. Mr.J.Kulei 39,000,000
35..Kamani Family 45,000,000
36.GOSS 12,500,000
37. Friends of Senator BO 66,00,000
38.P.K. Pattni 13,500,000
39.United Business Association 70,000,000
40.Westlands Association 12,800,000
41.Mr.P.Oriare 50,000
42.Premier club group 5,250,000
43.Gymkhana Group 5,150,000
44. Ms Esther Passaris 1,000,000
45. Adopt-a-light (advertising support) 20,000,000
46.Seifal-Islam Gaddafi 53,450,000
47. Visa Oshwal Group 10,200,000
48.Nakumatt H 26,000,000
49.Herr.Andrej Hermlin 100,000
50.Die Linkspartei (PDS) 35,000,000
51.Hon.Mudavadi Family 12,500,000
52. Spectre International & Associates 90,000,000
53. Energem Resourses Inc 52,500,000
54.Sandline International 10,000,000
55.Hon.Balala Family 8,000,000
56.Hon.William Ruto 10,000,000
57.Mr.D. Berg 1,500,000
58.Hon.Henry Kosgey & Friends 20,000,000
59. H.E.Obasanjo 25,000,000
60.Mr.S.Mwaita 1,000,000
61. S.A.Support group (M.Otieno) 25,000,000
62.DRC Support group 50,000 Chq RTD
63.Hon.O.Kajwang 3,500,000
64. Hon. J.Nyagah 3,500,000
65. Mr. L. Kaikai 500,000
66.SDP 1,800,000
67.NARC 650,000
68. GOP (America) 154,000,000
69.Nyanza Petroleum 1,500,000
70.Hon. Eng. Nyamunga 100,000
71. GM 2, 000,000
72. KASS FM 400,000


Parliamentary application Fees 295,000,000
Civic application fees 86,000,000

Dinners, Launches, Presentations 13,000,000
Merchandise Sales 4,300,000


Anonymous said...

It is not hard to see that MK has high chances of winning this election. ODM has been campaigning from before 2005. I think since the Narc MOU was not honoured. Kibaki just started campaigning the other day. I knew when Kibaki starts campaigning, hi ratings will go higher. Nevertheless, may the best candidate win. As for me my vote is +1 for Kibaki.

kalamari said...

Deroo, In effect, you are not only insinuating that the incumbent will manipulate the polls to his favor (or has the ability), you are also accepting such shenanigans as business as usual. You see, Kenyans believe that Moi rigged the 1997 elections. In many ways, 2002 was supposed to change not only the way the election system works but also the way voters accept frivolous results.

In your pain to understand the mambo jumbo rigging mechanism that Kibaki and gang are deeply engrossed in, you appear to 'reluctantly' embrace the very system that you gladly voted against in 2002….after all, it benefits your horse. My friend, you are a victim of the Kibaki bug.

butwaa said...

To all "PNU insiders" out there. Do you guys have access to the current NSIS polls?!

Read Mail & Guardian Polls article here

The intelligence report, a copy of which the M&G has seen, predicted that Odinga would win with 5,6-million votes, or 55,9%, placing Kibaki in second place with 3,1-million votes or 31,09%, and Musyoka third with 1,2-million votes, or 12,9%.

Yvonne said...

Deroo I take the fifth ammendment

deroo said...

9 million voters in Kenya? History...

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