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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Political Parties And The 10th Parliament

The political temperatures are very high in Kenya. So high that for sometime I feared to publish the results of a countrywide poll I carried out. Well, I finally published it and got exactly what I had expected. Insults and folks saying that this is an ODM blog.

By publishing the provincial breakdown, I will only attract more insults, so I will not publish any more details about my poll. People will not believe the kind of support the candidate previously known as “the unelectable” enjoys in Simoen Nyachae’s Kisii or in most of Nairobi for that matter. Thank you PKW for reserving your comments for the 28th.

I did not publish the polls to upset anybody, I simply documented what the people on the ground are saying.

With this kind of obsession with the presidential elections, very little attention is being paid to the parliamentary elections. And yet whoever is elected president, their success or failure will hinge very heavily on how much support and goodwill they will enjoy from the 10th parliament.

Going by the mathematical law of probabilities...

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris, your opinion polls post elicited a classic Kubler-Ross grief cycle from PNU respondents. Unfortunately, many them are still in denial, which means the country will need an extended period of healing after the elections. Those banking their hopes on [GEMA] numbers would do well to recall 2005. That was the premise then and look what happened.

I'll repeat what I have said a thousand times already, these elections are NOT about Raila and Kibaki; nor are they about Kikuyus and Kenyans. They are about - They are about how he has let us down. Raila is merely the public face of our anger. Ask yourself why Raila's popularity has not only survived, but grown on the back of some of the most spectacular gaffes – yet Kibaki's popularity; 90 districts and 600 million shillings later, looks to be permanently stuck in reverse gear.

The growing anger that has been ticking around country like a time-bomb since 2004 needs an urgent vent. It will find it in Kibaki's resounding defeat, and believe me, it won't just be non-GEMA votes sending him to retirement.

You know what they say, "We learn from history what we don't learn from history".

Anonymous said...

You would prove how foolish you can be, if you bow to your challenger even before your enter the boxing ring. I dont know how wise it is to celebrate before the fight. Chris, most PNU supporters are like PKW. They know how not to count their chicks before they hatch. Please teach your supporters the same, and stop showing them like they have a whole cage of Chicken when the eggs have not even hatched. You are wrong when you publish 'polls' that only serve to heighten the thought that THEY HAVE ALREADY WON. Hold your peace until 28th. Thank you.

Yvonne said...

Now on a lighter note ...Let me go celebrate one of President Kibaki's many achievements.........IDD Yeah that one, i was just joking today with the way Kibaki is dishing out districts I will soon be going to work in the border of Kasarani/Starehe district. I will be going home (Embakasi district) and will be going to church (Langata/Westlands district). Woe unto Kenyans...LOL

Phil said...

Chris, Just casting an eye across the fence, I am more worried about the next national assembly operating without a credible official opposition. I doubt if Kibaki will be the Leader of Opposition but I see the likes Uhuru, Karua or Kimunya jostling for this job. I have intentionally left out Awori, Kombo, Kituyi, Tuju, Saitoti, Mwakwere, et al because my own survey tells me they are not seeing parliament again as elected MPs.

But going by the number candidates nominated by some parties, can you imagine the prospect of having one Kamlesh Pattni (Chairman KENDA) or perhaps another Cyrus Jirongo (Chairman KADDU) as your Leader of Official Opposition? Or even worse as members of an unlikely PNU cabinet? Or Ndura Waruinge as a PNU nominated MP and Assistant Minister for Internal Security?

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