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There is panic in Nairobi and its' environs and one can now almost "taste" the fear in the air as motorists drive around, especially at night.

The fear is of course justified. It seems that carjackers and armed gunmen have not only suddenly greatly increased in number but their objectives seem to have changed from stealing cars at gunpoint to shooting as many motorists as possible, dead.

Sample the following two incidents.

Early last week some American Christian volunteers were in a car somewhere near Naivasha waiting for a colleague when armed gunmen pounced on them and shot them dead. They did not even end up stealing the car but instead disappeared into a nearby bush.

In yet another incident in Kiserian, Nairobi, carjackers shot dead at least 5 motorists in three different vehicles before they finally entered into one of the vehicles and made good their escape.

The pattern is the same in almost all the incidents. It seems that the whole idea is to cause death and as much of it as possible.

This latest development is not only worrying but unprecedented. So who is deliberately causing death and what is the objective?

One persistent rumour has been doing the rounds in Nairobi for weeks now, to the effect that there is an Ethiopian hit squad on the loose in the city and their operations are extending to a few other parts of the country outside the city in the sun. This rumour does not make sense. But then the truth usually hardly makes any sense until one is able to gather all the facts. We know for a fact that Ethiopians have recently been in the headlines for their invasion of Somalia where they ousted the Islamic Courts government that was not only rapidly gaining more power by the day in the whole battle torn country, but was also a serious threat to the stability of the entire horn of Africa region with the expansionist policies they seemed to promote. Thinly veiled threats had already been made against the Kenyan government by the Islamic Courts administration.

But what would Ethiopian hit squads be doing in Nairobi? What are they intentions? What is their mission all about? The questions these rumours raise are numerous and many more than can be answered, at least at the moment.

This writer sees three other highly likely reasons for the indiscriminate killings in Nairobi. To start with, nobody really wants to even think about it, but chances are high that remnants of the Islamic courts that were ousted in Somalia are already testing the waters through insurgents who have infiltrated the country. They have plenty of reason to hit out at Kenya and Kenyans, the first on the list is the fact that the previously highly porous borders have now been sealed off and many of them have been deported back to the very country they are fleeing for their lives from. If this is true, then why hasn't anybody started claiming responsibility for the acts of terror against innocent Kenyans? Or are they simply waiting to graduate to bigger operations and then do so?

The second possibility is that the whole thing could be part of a covert operation by the Americans to cause chaos and give them a good enough excuse (and the Kenyan government enough encouragement) to allow a full blown mop up exercise at Nairobi's notorious Eastleigh estate. There is little doubt that this estate which is one of the most dangerous localities in East Africa outside Mogadishu itself, may have been infiltrated by Al quieda cells ready to strike at American interests in the region at any time. Already it is common knowledge that even heavily armed policemen will go out of their way to avoid reading anywhere near Eastliegh. We of course have to thank the administration of former President Moi for the mess in Eastleigh. Somalis, most of them foreigners and yet pretending to be Kenyan Somalis just waked in and quickly bribed their way into the country. Many of them obtained Kenyan IDs and passports. Others have not even bothered but run all sorts of businesses in the country with the full privileges a local would have.

The third possibility is that it is all linked to the forthcoming elections. The whole idea is to cause chaos and fear in a bid to keep voters firmly on the government side, if they know what is good for them. This would be in following the now long tradition of having so called land clashes flaring up every time there is a general elections in the horizon. Immediately the elections are over the clashes usually vanish only to re-appear on the eve of the next elections. It happened in 1991/2, 1996/7, 2001/2 and it has happened again in 2006/7. This theory seems to be supported by the fact that it is rapidly emerging that Nairobi will be the kind of battle ground in the forthcoming general elections that could decide which direction the scales will tip in. And that is why there has been so much violence in the city this time round, from the Mathare clashes to the flare up in Kibera and now to indiscriminate killings on the streets.

The really worrying thing is that the killings are bound to get worse in the coming weeks.

Meet the man who can give you a dream holiday safari in Kenya.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Kumekucha Daily Home Page: Tues Feb 6 2007

Crime And Death Go Overboard In Nairobi As Rumors Of Ethiopian Hit Squad Refuses To Go Away