Raila Gets Motorcade And State Security

A presidential motorcade of Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe: As of this morning ODM leader and Prime Minister designate Raila Odinga started enjoying full state security and a motorcade.

All signs on the ground are that everything is moving at breakneck speed towards the consummation of the historical gentleman's agreement made last Thursday.

Already Raila has given a hint that the new grand coalition government will be in place within 2 weeks. This morning both President Kibaki and Hon Raila Odinga held a lengthy meeting whose main agenda was to ensure that everything goes smoothly. It seems that parliament will pass the necessary laws in record time. Somebody who believes that this blogger is still a print media journalist emphasized that in my next article I should announce to all legislators that whoever dares to oppose the landmark bills will "earn a curse from all Kenyans." This is of course an exaggeration but an accurate portrayal of the mood of the vast majority of Kenyans on the ground.

But even more fascinating was the fact that the GSU Recce division moved to Raila's Karen home in the early hours of this morning and set up camp. This is the unit that usually takes care of presidential security and the presidential motorcade. So even before the bill that will make Raila the second Prime Minister in the history of Kenya is passed, it seems that everything is being put in place well in advance. Raila now has motorcade and state security.

But you would have to be very naive to imagine that Odinga's enemies have all evaporated into thin air. Far from it. A case in point is the now infamous photo of the ODM leader relaxing in Mombasa. Terrible timing and the idea was obviously to discredit and portray the wrong image and to cause animosity at a time when Kenyans have passed through such great difficulties. Nobody will remember that poor Raila has hardly had a rest since the campaigns because immediately after that, the post election crisis kept him very much occupied. Surely he deserves a day or two away from the public limelight, relaxing at the Coast after such a trying time? The man is human you know.

So, what was the motive of the Daily Nation in carrying such a photograph?

ODM’s Deadly International Media Spin Machine

Go to Google or any search engine and do any search you wish to on the disputed general elections of last year. You will quickly note that the International media seems to be very ODM-friendly. I can assure you that that is no accident. Somebody worked very hard to make that happen.

Now let us not be naïve to start jumping to conclusions here. It is true that the December 2007 general elections were stolen. Ask most 3 or 4 year old Kenyan children and they will tell you so. We all saw it happening live on Television. However the International community didn’t, not really. Many of them were not really paying attention and at least one super power that has since done a 180 degree turn, assisted in that rigging exercise that horribly went wrong. Actually most of the world’s attention at that time was focused on Pakistan where former Prime Minister Mrs Bhutto had just been assassinated.

So when trouble broke out in Kenya, they wanted to know what really happened. The reality in this harsh media dominated world we live in today is that reality is not as important as perception (although the two are related as we shall see later in this post). So it is terribly important that your story is told. And that is the work of spin experts. I personally prefer to call them spin artistes.

The difference between reputable spin artists like ODM’s Salim Lone and a spin quack like Dr Alfred Mutua is one very simple thing. There are those who believe that they can spin anything and there are those who know that to be successful in the long term, it is important that you spin only the truth. You remember the famous president John F. Kennedy quote that ends with; you can’t fool all the people all the time? In fact fake spin doctors like Dr Mutua have always ended up being a liability to their employers.

The other difference is that reputable PR experts (if you prefer to call them that) are noble and will not hesitate to make personal sacrifices. Salim Lone’s life was threatened by somebody a few weeks ago and he would have given the world his story and attracted all the limelight and media attention to himself. But at what price? The attention would have effectively been shifted away from his client. So, because he was able to deal with the problem of his personal security, he was determined that the attention of the media remains focused on ODM at a very crucial time leading up to the signing of the historic peace deal last Thursday. It is this kind of character trait that wins the trust of journalists who are crucial allies in any spin effort. In sharp contrast police commissioner Maj Gen Hussein Ali is of the view that...

Read more

Vicious Power Struggle Begins In Kenya

Is Kalonzo about to lose the vice presidency?

The leadership qualities of one Kalonzo Musyoka were clearly visible for all to see this last Saturday in Ukambani. If you are still of the old school and believe that a strong leader is one who hires people to jeer and intimidate an opponent and perceived threat to yourself at the funeral of her mother, then Kalonzo is quite a brilliant leader.

Actually what we are now seeing are just the initial signs of a vicious power struggle that is beginning to unfold in Kenya between the old school politicians and the new emerging generation of political leaders.

But let me start at the beginning.

On Saturday the political action in Ukambani was at the funeral of the late mother of the MP for Kathiani, Wavinya Ndeti. Before I go any further, let me tell; you a little about this gallant woman (who also happens to be a drop dead beauty “supu” at the age of 39.) I will post an appropriate photograph the moment I get it).

Wavinya managed to beat a very strong field of men to make history as the first woman to win a parliamentary seat in the history of Machakos district. That field of opponents was led by the immediate former MP Kyalo Kaindi who poured money like there was no tomorrow. Just to illustrate to you how things are changing in Kenya; money usually works miracles in Kathiani constituency. But this time, the people took the money and voted differently. All signs are that in Wavinya we are witnessing the emergence of another Charity Ngilu (just remember that you read it first in Kumekucha long before it came to pass). Incidentally Wavinya is a Kamba word that means “the one of power” or “the strong one.”

So back to my story. Hon Wavinya Ndeti was in mourning for her dear beloved late mother and deserved a quiet funeral to bury the woman who brought her to this world. But there was no way that VP Kalonzo Musyoka would allow that to happen. Busloads of people were hired mainly from the Kibwezi area and they arrived at the funeral having been carefully briefed on what to do. Before the graveside service was even done, the onslaught began. It was all kicked off by one of the main financiers of Kalonzo’s presidential campaign...

Read more

Honest Reflection + Reconciliation = Price of Reconstruction

With the political deal signed on paper, Kenya enters a defining week that will lay the first foundation for a firm rediscovery or mere patching of the rot underneath. It has taken enormous bloodshed to make us reason and unless we learn our lessons correctly and fast enough, we are prone to repeat the same mistakes with devastating consequences.

Kenya has never known any true leadership in her 45 years existence as an independent nation. All we have had so far are rulers weaned on imperial ideologies of the colonialists who scheme to ascend to power to entrench the same divisive and oppressive practices. Since independence we have wasted the opportunity to define ourselves as a country. We have been mere passengers in the grave train Kenya as a geographical accident.

Kenyan needs an urgent reality check NOW. We have the best chance to build a sustainable foundation that appreciates each Kenyan outside ethnic parameters. We can deny it all the much we wish but the brutal truth is that negative ethnicity is the malignant cancer gnawing at the Kenyan fabric. Bandying lofty slogans to gloss over this malady only succeeds in painting us for what we are: PRACTITIONERS of DECEPTION per excellence.

Costly false pride
The paper signed by both Raila and Kibaki wont make neighbours in the Rift Valley hug after going for each others throat and burning homes. We must start from the basics and banish the evil ideology of berating others derogatorily simply because we don’t share mother tongue. We must shun utterances that inflame emotions which our politicians will readily exploit to advance their selfish interests.

There is no pride in having so many enemies. One more foe is just one too many. We need each Kenyan in this endeavour to reclaim and develop our country. Nothing short of honest engagement will do here. Cooperation premised on deception is to live an expensive lie that will consume all of us sooner rather than later.

Humility is only a weakness to the short-sighted who shoot epithets from both lips oblivious of the consequences. Kenyans must humble themselves and with utmost HONESTY collectively and constructively involve themselves in whatever little way they can towards realizing a truly united and prosperous country. It is too costly to wait.

False pride couched in any shade of superiority complex or bravado has no place in this overdue exercise. Start doing your part NOW. So let the willing souls soil their hand and let the healing process begin.

Beauty of Failing to Succeed

Token reprieve makes the heart exhale out of turmoil or so it appear for Kenyans. The Kibaki-Raila political deal has left most Kenyans more optimistic and partially happy. Waxing poetic, Kenyans have gone over the top with their lyrics about their potential as a nation. The destructive experiment may have just served its reversed role in making us appreciate what we hitherto took for granted.

We reason best by contrast otherwise you wont appreciate a tall person until you see dwarf. Similarly you look genius in the company of dimwits. Bloodbath at our doorsteps made Kenyans rediscover the humanity in them and shun the destructive.

We must go a step further to make Kenya have civilized politics. Our selfish politicians with their cheap brand of politics has been our collective bane. We must never allow them to ride on our backs under the shameful tag of ethnicity. Let our leaders earn their respect from us and let us hold them to account.

Kenya trail blazing
Kenyan's experience may be equated to a near death experience. We were staring abyss in the face with our backs to a smouldering dark blue sea. It is a grim picture imagining what the future held for us without the ceasefire. We trail blaze Africa is reclaiming our country back from the jaws of Armageddon. Kofi Annan will be in high demand following Africa's perennial political crises.

Martha Karua's political tantrums provided the turning point for Annan to face the principal protagonists. Mother nature definitely smiled at Kenya very broadly by inadvertently helping us derive beauty from the beast. PNU's iron lady definitely took her gate-keeping role overboard. Her disrespect for Annan and his team of eminent persons can only be attributed to raw power couched in utter contempt.

The respite arms us with the power and will to banish primitive politics to the pits of hell. We may not be totally out of the woods yet but we must stop our leaders from cheap political schemes that use us as their bargaining chips. We must collective declare NEVER AGAIN

Wiper Miracle Faces Uncertain Future

Orange family feud continues

The signing of an agreement on the contentious agenda three of the Kofi Annan peace initiative between Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki could not have come at a worse time for ODM-Kenya and its leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

To begin with, Kalonzo is currently facing mounting internal rebellion within his own party as party MPs are publicly accusing him of selfishness and highhandedness. Some ODM-K MPs are already warming up to Raila’s ODM in anticipation of cabinet posts. Even more significantly, in a move that could undermine Kalonzo's presidential ambitions, NARC Chairperson and Pentagon member Charity Ngilu is reportedly forming an alliance with wealthy businessman John Harun Mwau whose purpose is to curtail Kalonzo’s influence in Kambaland. The two MPs survived the Kalonzo wave during the last general elections and were elected on their own party tickets and their alliance is rumoured to be supported by the higher echelons of ODM.

As if these threats are not enough headache, Daniel Maanzo and Julia Ojiambo have filed a case in court challenging Kalonzo’s move to nominate third-parties to parliament when a deal was reached last year that nomination slots would be reserved for them.

Back to the Raila/Kibaki agreement, this new development that gives PM-designate Raila Odinga sweeping powers as Head of Government and supervisor of all government ministries, has effectively stripped Kalonzo of his Leader of Government Business title in parliament and also placed Raila at par with Kibaki and high above Kalonzo in terms of hierarchy. And to add insult to injury, unlike Kalonzo who can be sacked through 1pm news bulletin, Raila is his own boss who can only be relieved of his duties through a vote of no confidence in parliament. What will certainly make this a bitter pill for Kalonzo to swallow is that, the agreement compels Kibaki to seek Raila’s consent on any appointments or sackings

When Kalonzo and his party Chairman Samuel Poghisio were appointed to the cabinet last month, it was a move by a politically desperate Kibaki who at that time was badly in need of numbers to boost PNU’s parliamentary strength. At that time, very few people thought that Raila Odinga’s ODM could hold out its protests against the disputed elections this far, and that the international community would put sustained pressure on Kibaki for a coalition government.

In the not-so-distant past, Raila and Kalonzo were in a single ODM-K that was at that time tipped to take over government if they remained united. As fate would have it, there were serious disagreements concerning the mode of nomination for the party's presidential torch bearer, with a Kalonzo backed Maanzo refusing to resign as the registered Chairman in favour of secretariat officials. Kalonzo defected from LDP to LPK, while Raila took over ODM and two parted ways. It is quietly said in some circles that Kalonzo was paid huge sums of money to split the original ODM-K by insisting on a still-born presidential bid. ODM insiders have accused Kalonzo of looking the other way when during the elections, ballot boxes were being stuffed in favour of Kibaki and himself in the Ukambani area just to fix Raila.

Today, matters have turned full circle and if there has to be a Leader of Official Opposition in parliament, then it will most likely be ODM’s Kalonzo Musyoka. In other words, Raila's entry in government will be at the expense of ODM-K and its leader Kalonzo.

Since yesterday when Annan met Raila and Kibaki privately, political players have intensified lobbying and it is likely that both Kalonzo and Poghisio have their fingers tightly crossed that PNU’s Mwai Kibaki does not reshuffle his part cabinet and in the process appoint him to a lesser position or even worse, send him to the back benches.

Vice President Kalonzo has been quoted on several occasions expressing misgivings about rushing into a coalition arrangement before thinking it out. Kalonzo has also extensively travelled overseas in largely unsuccessful missions of attempting to get foreign governments recognise the the now moribund PNU president and his government.

It will be interesting to watch Kalonzo’s next move this weekend especially if he is scheduled to attend any public baraza or church service within his bedrock support region of lower Eastern province.

The Magic Key And Why Taabu's Call Should Be Heeded

One of the things that I find the most fun in this mostly thankless task of running Kumekucha is when an intelligent and alert reader blows holes all over my well-thought out and supossedly rock-solid post. The intellectual challenge turns me on so. And I am also sure that therein lies one of the less obvious reasons for this blog's immense popularity and addictive nature.

For instance one or two of our readers here noticed yesterday that out of the many posts and even articles in the mainstream media on the Anan breakthrough, all failed to answer one nagging question; What was this magic key that Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete brought with him that succeeded where Anan had previously failed miserably?

While neither party will issue a press statement explaining that, we are aware of a few facts. We know for instance that President Kikwete who is the current EU chair carried a message with him from the Americans. It is fairly safe to assume that it was that message that made a difference. We also know (at least this blogger does) that Condi Rice openly threatened President Kibaki when she was last here to deliver a message from President Bush. The message was that Kibaki would be "personally held responsible if he refused to play ball.

That was the significant first step because it represented a major shift in Washington's position. The Americans fully supported Kibaki and there is evidence that senior officials linked to the Washington administration "knew" that Kibaki was going to win the elections long before the controversial December 27th polls (remember the Collin Bruce leaked memos?). Condi's threats in Nairobi clearly demonstrated to Kibaki that the one-night stand was not only over, but it never happened in the mind of the other partner.

Kikwete's message reinforced the earlier one by indicating that the planned military action was all set and ready to roll. There are whispers that the Tanzanians would have played a major role in it. In all likelihood it would have been done under AU auspices.

Chances are that it finally dawned on Kibaki that he had been cornered. It is no accident that the president was in the company of security heavyweights the day before the peace deal was signed. This included The Chief of general staff, Maj Gen Jeremeiah Kianga, police commissioner Hussein Ali, NSIS chief Michael Gichangi etc.

And as if to confirm everything, the message of cautious congratulation from the Americans shortly after the Anan peace deal was signed. Emphasized that the implementation was crucial. Almost as if to say, "we are still watching YOU closely."

The Kenyan political class is usually very fast to accuse the Western world for attempting to colonize us again. I will be blunt. Considering the way our politicians have behaved, I would gladly welcome the re-colonization of Kenya by the British (my first choice because they understand Kenya) or the Americans. Surely they would not be as bad as Anglo Leasing, political assassinations and all the other evils much worse than colonization ever was that Kenyans have been subjected to by her indigenous ruthless colonial masters.

Taabu's Proposal
Taabu's bold suggestion in his post yesterday to Kenyans to fo a good deed to a fellow Kenyans as the beginning of healing should be taken very seriously by every patriotic Kenyan. I would go further and suggest that Kikuyu's go out of their way to do a good deed to a Kalenjin and a Kalenjin go out of their way to do a good deed to a Kikuyu.

I hereby reproduce that all-important paragraph from Taabu's post of yesterday;

Making a difference

We have a unique opportunity to redefine Kenya. Such luck never knocks at anybody's door twice. As a Kenyan start now by doing whatever is within your powers to make a difference. Ask yourself each day what small thing you have done to any other Kenyan to his or her life better. I rest my case and over to you Kenyans.

Yes We Have a Deal, So What Next?

Promptlly seizing an opportunity marks the difference between failure and true success. That is an apt message for Kibaki and Raila after signing a political deal. The hard work of reclaiming Kenyan starts now and doing it before now will go along way to re-assure the emotionally and physically wounded to on their value as Kenyans.

Kibaki and Raila must seize this opportunity to show TRUE LEADERSHIP bereft of malice or dirty tricks. Past political tension and suspicion can only be address by honest and focused leadership by example and from in front. Rising above the fray will a shame ethnic purists who must also be made to appreciate the beauty and fruits of diversity over division.

Kenya must turn the past crisis on its head as a launch pad to WHOLESOME and EQUITABLE prosperity for all her citizens. There would be no better befitting tribute to those who have died recently and before for justice. True, some those deaths and incarceration have been unfair and products of excesses.

Unity in diversity
Acknowledging a weakness is strength unto itself. As we wait for Annan and his team to complete his mediation work we must NOT wait to start the healing process. Let us derive utmost motivation to move on from our national pain for the last two months. Unity in diversity must be our clarion call and we must collectively vow to shun empty and chauvinistic pronouncements NOW.

Humility is an irreplaceable pillar in leadership as exhibited by Kofi Annan. Kibaki and Raila must take cue and start uniting Kenya now. They would start this by jointly visiting the internally displaced people in their camps to assure them of putting structures in place within a timetable to address the root cause that is LAND.

Time waits for no man and before the truth and reconciliation commission is up and running, we must not leave room for political suspicion and scheming. We have been BITTEN HARD and it is incumbent upon us a nation to dust ourselves up and showcase to the world that we appreciate their concern for Kenya. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation.

Making a difference
We have a unique opportunity to redefine Kenya. Such luck never knocks at anybody's door twice. As a Kenyan start now by doing whatever is within your powers to make a difference. Ask yourself each day what small thing you have done to any other Kenyan to his or her life better. I rest my case and over to you Kenyans.

Breakthrough In Anan Talks Leaves Too Many Questions

It is like the whole country has been holding it’s breath since December 30th 2007 and everybody started breathing again a few hours ago when a breakthrough in the the Anan peace talks was finally announced.

“We have a deal,” Anan said capturing the drama and suspense of the moment.

Wild celebrations were noted in many parts of the country including areas like Migori where or man on the ground reports, Kenyans went crazy with jubilation. As I wrote his, I still don’t have a reaction from the Rift Valley. No reports of celebrations there, at least not yet.

Still the events of a few hours ago have left more questions than answers on the minds of close observers and political analysts.

Interestingly one contentious issue was not addressed in the agreement. It is silent on what happens in the event that the coalition collapses. ODM were keen that the country goes to the polls in the event of the coalition collapsing. PNU were adamant that such a clause would tempt ODM mischief to break the coalition as soon as possible so as to force an election.

Even the Americans on acknowledging the breakthrough were cautious and emphasized in their statement that what would matter most would be the implementation.

While I do not intend to burst anybody’s bubble, there are just too many things that can still go wrong. Starting from basic questions like which ministry will go to which side. For instance the Ministry of Finance is desirable to both sides, so who will get it? There are a few other very desirable cabinet portfolios, so how will they all be divided?

Not to mention the fact that it is difficult to imagine Amos Kimunya seated on the same table as William Ruto and Raila Odinga in a cabinet meeting chaired by President Kibaki and having a sober discussion. After all there has been too much venom flying between the two groups.

But even before we reach there, the agreement ahs to go to parliament and the necessary bills have to be quickly passed. President Kibaki has announced the parliament will reconvene on Thursday March 6th.

Kenyan politics has always been about absolute power, so will the new power sharing arrangement work? Or shall we see both sides going into the marriage with raw wounds and scores to settle? Only time will tell.

P.S. Kalonzo Musyoka and ODM-K will be wiped out by the new power sharing arrangement as PNU legislators should take most of the cabinet posts. And even if Kalonzo Musyoka retains the vice presidency, that office will be more of a shell when the Prime Minister and his deputies take their seats. It looks like the miracle is about to be wiped out, forever.

FULL TEXT OF COALITION AGREEMENT

ACTING TOGETHER FOR KENYA: AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION GOVERNMENT.

Preamble:
The crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential election has brought to the surface deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. If left unaddressed, these divisions threaten the very existence of Kenya as a unified country. The Kenyan people are now looking to their leaders to ensure that their country will not be lost.

Given the current situation, neither side can realistically govern the country without the other. There must be real power-sharing to move the country forward and begin the healing and reconciliation process.
With this agreement, we are stepping forward together, as political leaders, to overcome the current crisis and to set the country on a new path. As partners in a coalition government, we commit ourselves to work together in good faith as true partners, through constant consultation and willingness to compromise.

This agreement is designed to create an environment conducive to such a partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence. It is not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole. It provides the means to implement a coherent and far-reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure, more prosperous Kenya for all.To resolve the political crisis, and in the spirit of coalition and partnership, we have agreed to enact the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, whose provisions have been agreed upon in their entirety by the parties hereto and a draft copy is appended hereto.

Its key points are:
* There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with authority to coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government of Kenya.

* The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National Assembly and the parliamentary leader of the largest party in the National Assembly, or of a coalition, if the largest party does not command a majority.

* Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the National Assembly to be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.

* The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, the two Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers. The removal of any Minister of the coalition will be subject to consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.

* The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote.

* The composition of the coalition government will at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their relative parliamentary strength.

* The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the coalition.

* The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in the Constitution.Having agreed on the critical issues above, we will now take this process to Parliament. It will be convened at the earliest moment to enact these agreements. This will be in the form of an Act of Parliament and the necessary amendment to the Constitution.

We believe by these steps we can together in the spirit of partnership bring peace and prosperity back to the people of Kenya who so richly deserve it.

Breaking News: Deal at Last

Kofi Annan has just announced a POWER SHARING DEAL signed by Kibaki and Raila. Annan however failed to give further details on the same. Nonetheless he said he was confident enough to declare a DEAL. This may be the FIRE EXTINGUISHER Kenya needed after all the destructive inferno. Well, as we wait for details and the beef the bone is already there to keep teeth busy.

I won't be the one to spoil the party. But being Kenyan has taught me to be armed with tons of salt on any political deal. Putting pen to paper is one thing and having the ink dry is quiet another. Hope is good for a grieving soul but reality can also shred HOPE. Kibaki still has both the yam and the knife and whatever he does with both is for us and the world to see.

Real power sharing needs constitution amendments that requires two-third in parliament. Consequently ODM's fate is still at the mercy of GOODWILL from other MPs. Knowing Kenyans for what they are, well your guess is as good as mine. I just hope Annan is not being bid bye in style to escape a killing field, GOD FORBID. The precedence is there and once bitten, severally shy. Half loaf yes, but will it be snatched from our lips? Only time will tell.

Which Way Kenya?

Danger Ahead for Kenya: The People To Watch

It is now exactly two months since Kenyans enthusiastically came out in their masses to cast ballots in favour of their preferred political leaders. What should have been a straight forward electoral process has turned out to be our worst nightmare. The general elections have polarised the country ethnically.

After wasting more than 1500 lives and displacing nearly half a million others, the general elections have left many a Kenyan with deep regret as to why they even bothered to vote in the first place and many others are frustrated to the point of vowing never ever to vote again.

Nairobi has now become a global VIP destination with visitors including nobel price winners, presidents, diplomats, peace-makers, etc. The Kenya crisis has also been in the headlines since December. This just goes to say how high the stakes are. Interestingly, few of these high-profile visitors have made it to State House – Mwai Kibaki’s preferred work station. Most have met Kibaki at the official Harambee House offices.

On the other hand, the current political impasse shows just how powerful the so-called old order forces are in this country that claims to have been independent for nearly half a century and that which, as we have always been reminded, is a sovereign state. Threats of visa ban and asset freeze do not seem to be producing any results towards a resolution of the elections impasse.

Whereas the Orange Democratic Movement led by Raila Odinga have made significant concessions in the crisis arising out of the disputed elections, the Party of National Unity led by Mwai KIbaki have made none at all - in terms of acknowledging the concerns of their rivals or even ceding executive powers. Instead, PNU has been changing positions each time they are requested to show commitment on agreed issues and in the process playing deadly political gambling with the very livelihoods of the people of Kenya – all in the name of retaining political power.

Ever since the crisis started, the ODM have played their political cards much better than the PNU. To begin with, PNU forget that this crisis is all about politics and NOT about what the constitutional law says. In any case, everyone is in agreement, it is this very constitution that has led us to this hole we find ourselves in. Secondly, it is clear to all that PNU’s line-up on the mediation table is not what one would call negotiators but ‘defenders’ – no wonder they have failed to reach a compromise! Thirdly, it is PNU that is in control of state instruments and it is them who will ultimately determine whether the crisis will degenerate into anarchy or peace. Perhaps it is this state power that has made PNU become too reckless in its pronouncements and so amateurish in its dealings with people who matter in global affairs.

Whether rightly or wrongly, ODM have managed to depict themselves as the victims and it appears the civil society, the press, the international community and even the majority of the Kenyan population agree that power-sharing as opposed to an MOU-type of arrangement. As a matter of fact, Kofi Annan was taken aback by PNU hardliners who accused him of siding with killers (ODM) something which clearly shocked him and that which prompted him to suspend the Serena talks and opt to engage directly with the principals.

The big question is: After hastily taking oath of office on 30th December, is Mwai Kibaki truly in charge of this country or are there some unseen forces that are actually ruling this country by proxy? Who is holding our leaders hostage? Looking at the history of both ODM and PNU leaders, and the backers they had during their intensive campaign periods; it is easy to tell who between the two is lying in bed with the OLD ORDER and who has been out there advocating for CHANGE. It is also easy to tell who is sweeping historical injustices under the carpet.

Although the country has returned to an uneasy calm in recent weeks, many observers opine that this has only given private militias the opportunity to re-arm because PNU and ODM are unlikely to reach an agreement and therefore matters will have to be sorted out physically.

Sources now say, as a last resort, Kenya’s military is on high alert awaiting orders of deployment to contain civil strife that is sure to follow the failure of Annan’s mediation mission. A strong pointer to this was the unusual attendance of the Chief of General Staff, General Kianga, at yesterday’s meeting between Kibaki together with his PNU team and Kofi Annan with his eminent persons team. In other words, Gen. Kianga was part of the PNU team that met with Kofi Annan who is on a AU sanctioned mission to Kenya.

Related:

Kibaki's Game Plane: Is a Major Purge Ahead?

Danger Ahead For Kenya: The People To Watch

I read a comment today from one of our dear readers begging for real news rather than just commentaries.

I hereby oblige.

Yesterday President Kibaki met with the chief of general staff, Jeremiah Kiaga, the NSIS chief Michael Gichangi, the police commissioner Maj Gen Ali and other leaders of various security related institutions in the country.

That is very big news for several reasons. In fact you can interpret this information in many different ways but based on the information I have, I can only equate it to the strange incident that happened shortly after Mwai Kibaki was announced the winner of the 2007 general elections. There was suddenly heavy security presence surrounding the City Mortuary.

Folks, something is about to happen and whatever it is, it is big and it involves the security of the country.

My dear readers it is important that you now learn how to read the situation. Let me give you a recent example. Martha Karua and the other PNU negotiators had a press conference on Sunday. Basically it was to say that an agreement is not an agreement until it is signed. Do you remember what happened the very next day? Kenyans were very optimistic but barely a day after that press conference, the talks collapsed.

Now I will make it easier for you. The following are the people whose body language you should take very careful note of.

Mwai Kibaki: Beware when he fiddles with his left hand on his lap when he is seated. That means he is getting impatient or irritated or both.).

Martha Karua: The pace with which she walks is very important. Quick means that she is under pressure from her boss to go ballistic and cause chaos. The whole game plan is to take Anan round in circles until the guy gives up and goes back to Ghana. But a big mistake many readers here make, Karua does not make any decisions, unlike Nicholas Biwott whom most Kenyans compare her to. She just follows instructions to the letter. Need I tell you from who?

Mutula Kilonzo: Ignore him. But the wider his eyes are when he faces the camera, the more reckless the instructions that have been given to Ms Karua. But ignore what he says. Basically he always says NOTHING.

Moses Wetangula: Listen carefully to what he says because it will usually be a reply to the last irritating telephone call one Mwai Kibaki received from one Condi Rice. The British these days are quiet since their last letter to Mwai Kibaki’s administration. Briefly that letter confirmed what High commissioner Wood had already said, that the position of her Majesty’s government is that they DO NOT recognize the Kibaki administration. In other words the guys are in office illegally. Period. But do be careful about the British. Those guys are deadly and they usually think through everything they do. Meaning that their failure to recognize the Kibaki government means that they have scanned the whole sum and seen the final answer, when everybody else is still working out the sum. I will say no more.

Gichira Kibara: This radical hardliner lawyer, I know personally and I know him well. He is never in the public limelight. But the reason for his presence in the Anan talks is very clear to me. By the way, Gichira I have seen the comments that you have left here and also the others you have attempted to leave. You did not need to leave your name. We lived together under the same roof for almost six years, remember? Ninakujua vizuri sana.

The reason for Gichira’s presence in the talks is that he represents the President’s closest advisors and carefully takes instructions from them to protect their interests and ensure that nobody does anything stupid at the talks with Anan (like give an inch of ground.)

I would not be at all surprised if it was his briefing that caused the Sunday press conference. Deep inside this guy’s heart, he does not believe that the Luo community deserve to exist and if they must, he does not believe that they should come anywhere near power or leadership.

The ODM guys? Ignore them. What power do they have? As a party they do NOT even control the Kalenjin warriors in the Rift Valley. Those guys take their instructions from some other radicals, I’d better not write about here. Trust me sometimes what you don’t know helps a lot in keeping you calm and sane and hopeful.

As our beloved KTN TV news anchors put it the other day; the buck stops with Mwai Kibaki. He alone has the power to make an agreement happen 2 weeks ago. In my view Kibaki has not shown any leadership in his life and especially since that memorable day December 30th 2002 at Uhuru Park. And that is why we are in this mess in the first place. How I long for Moi sometimes, despite every bad thing he did.

Can Kibaki show leadership now? Is it possible to teach an old dog new tricks? You be the judge.


The groups below, you must also keep an eye on and some other characters I will talk about soon. The information below was sent to me by Sarah Kanini I don't agree with everything she says though.

She said in her email;


DO not blame Mungiki since the president is a kikuyu and the group comprises of Kikuyus, every community is at pain here in fact Luo and Luyha have more warrior groups unlike Kikuyus

Kenya is at risk of plunging into a new wave of violence, despite progress in negotiations to end a political crisis, because several armed groups are mobilizing on all sides of the country's ethno-political divisions.

Firearms are much less widely available in Kenya than in neighbouring countries. In the context of this article, "armed groups" include those using machetes, spears, poison arrows and clubs.

Extremists and militia are preparing for new confrontation on both camps and ODM [the opposition] believes that if international mediation fails, its only protection against repression and hope for a settlement will be its capacity to raise the stakes through violence,"

Kenya has a number of groups of youths claim to protect their regions,

Mungiki: Kikuyu male membership is drawn mainly from some parts of Central Province .

Kalenjin warriors: Well-organized community defense training forms an integral part of the graduated progress from childhood to adulthood in the seven ethnic groups collectively known as Kalenjin.

Sabaot Land Defence Force: The Sabaot Land Defense Force has been blamed for most of the violence that has rocked the western district of Mt Elgon in the past two years. It was formed after claims of injustice over land allocation in a settlement scheme in the district.
Mt Elgon conflict involves two main clans of the dominant Sabaot community - the majority Soy clan and the minority Ndorobo clan � OVER LAND

Chinkororo: is the Kisii equivalent of Kalenjin warriors, and represents the armed wing of the Abagusii community, which is found in several districts in the western ethnic Luo-dominated Nyanza Province .

Mulungunipa Forest Group: This little-known group is said to be based in the coastal district of Kwale
Taliban : mainly Luo and active in Mathare, Huruma, Baba Dogo, Kariobangi North and Kariobangi South quarters of Nairobi �s Eastlands district.
Members communicate and identify themselves via a system of secret hand signals.

Baghdad Boys: Vigilantes active in Kibera , Kenya 's largest slum, whose members are drawn mostly from the Luo community, and use slingshots and knives.
Kosovo: Another vigilante group based in Kibera, including members from the Luo and Luhya communities, using slingshots and knives

Jeshi la Mzee aka Kamjesh
Another slum-based gang specializing in extortion and protection rackets, targeting operators of public minibuses. Membership is mixed, comprising Kikuyu, Luo, Maasai, Kisii and the Luhya.

Kibaki Meets Annan

The following takes place in private at Harambee House between 10 am and 11 am one day after ODM called off its planned national countrywide rallies to protest the stalled political negotiations being held to resolve the disputed December general post election crisis

Annan & Mkapa: (rising politely) Good morning your Excellency….

Mkapa: (smiling, bowing slightly with outstretched hand) Shikamoo Rais Kibaki

Kibaki: (enters the room smiling) …gentlemen, sit please….Sijambo Benjamin, keti tafadhali

Annan: (sitting down) thank you sir, and thank you for agreeing to meet us so early this morning

Kibaki : thank you for the work you are doing and the support you have provided so far towards addressing the political situation in Kenya

Annan: (leaning slightly forward, speaking softly) well your excellency, that is why we are here this morning. Both negotiation teams have made almost no progress towards reaching an agreement on governance, despite the fact that they had the entire weekend to consult on their positions

Mkapa :(nodding) ndio Rais, daktari anasema ukweli

Kibaki: (turning round to face both men) a lot of progress has been made in the mediation talks and I am hopeful that a sustainable solution to this political challenge will be achieved

Annan: yes sir that is why I decided to directly engage both you and Honourable Raila Odinga personally to ensure that the talks reach a successful conclusion

Kibaki: (sounding curious) have you spoken to my friend Raila yet?

Annan: yes sir, and I was able to effectively persuade the Honourable member of your parliament to not go ahead with his earlier planned action intended for tomorrow….

Kibaki: (brightening) very good! That is why I commended you earlier my friend Ann. …..

Annan: (gently interrupting) sir, I only managed to appeal to him to postpone the planned mass action rallies until further notice….

Kibaki: (visibly taken back) postpone?

Annan: yes sir. Sir, the negotiations were at a critical stage when they stalled, and it is now urgently imperative upon both Honourable Raila and your excellency to reach a solution to the crisis at the negotiation table and not through planned street actions

Kibaki: (wearily sitting down, sighing)

Annan: Sir, as you are aware, I had set a deadline of 48-72 hours for both your party and that of Honourable Raila to agree on short term solutions to the crisis

Kibaki (nodding silently)

Annan: (continuing) the slow pace of our negotiations is due to disagreements between your negotiators and the ODMs, as well as the hardline posititons of both camps which has hampered the success of the talks.

Kibaki: (speaking slowly) its because they want me to create a prime minister position and I am prepared to do so-we shall do so, but only under the current constitution and in a coalition agreement

Annan: (leaning wearily back in his seat) yes your excellency, I understand your position

Kibaki :(speaking strongly) you know Annan my friend, there is no constitutional vacuum in the country

Annan: (nodding) yes sir, of course sir

Kibaki: (rubbing his hands together) now of course I am personally receptive to making constitutional changes that reflect the wishes of Kenyans

Suddenly a door opens and Martha Karua walks in briskly, leans over and whispers directly in Kibaki’s ear. Immediately after, she turns round and walks out without looking in the either Annan or Mkapa’s direction

Annan: (startled at the site of Karua; sweat breaks on his brow, and he takes a handkerchief out of his immaculate pocket and mops his forehead)

Mkapa: (slightly pale at the sight of Karua) are you ok Daktari? Do you want some glasses of water?

Annan: (shaking his head) no thank you Ben, I am fine, just the heat

Kibaki: (suddenly rising and walking behind a desk) gentlemen, I am afraid I have to be leaving soon but as I was saying I would like a speedy finalisation of this coalition government

Annan and Mkapa instinctively rise to their feet puzzled

Kibaki: (smiling) honourable Raila knows he can be a coalition partner under my Government even as a prime minister because the current constitution allows for this

Annan and Mkapa nod silently

Kibaki: (continuing) so, I am ready and willing to share responsibilities of my Government with ODM; please let my friend Raila know this

A door opens and Kalonzo Musyoka, Professor Sam Ongeri, Martha Karua, Mutula Kilonzo and Moses Wetangula walk single file into the room in silence. Smiling, Kalonzo walks upto Kibaki and stands by his right side looking directly at Annan and Mkapa

Annan: (thinking silently to himself….the meeting must be over)

Mkapa:(silently thinking to himself…..jeshi la mzee au nini hawa watu wa bara)

Annan: (smiling stiffly) thank you for your time your excellency

Mkapa: (smiling cheerfully) Kwaheri Rais, hamjambo wazir wa serikali

My Dream About The Next President Of Kenya

By Wanjiku of Mombasa

In these days when the 1.00 pm news bulletin can change your travel plans, it seems some main characters have still not yet grasped the magnitude of the problems that may come about if the talks fail. Or maybe they just don’t care. Just last week it was almost clear we were going the power sharing way. For the sake of sanity I want to believe that is the way things will end up despite a snag here and a deadlock there. Did we expect power sharing negotiations to be smooth? I want to be optimistic that a solution will come out of the house of peace. For me what remains to be seen is whether the deal, when officially sealed, will appease ODM and PNU supporters. More so the ODM since they’re the aggrieved party. And by supporters I mean voters, not the so called hardliners and million shillings per plate dinner buyers.

For the sake of much needed hope and optimism, let us assume that Kenya shall get over this recent snag in the negotiations. But first let us acknowledge that if indeed we go the coalition way, neither Kibaki nor Raila will be what his supporters expected. After all we voted for our favorite candidate to be in full control of government. Let us also acknowledge the obvious possibility of incessant bickering in government for as long as the said coalition lasts. Even in the absence of bickering, settling into the new arrangement would be quite a distraction from the day to day running of the country. Don’t be surprised if neither half of the government delivers much for this whole term.

ODM for example will most probably be opposing the other half of government left right and center from day one. Just as well since if the power sharing deal works, Kenya will not have much of an opposition anyway. I had a domo session with a certain Kumekucha fence sitter and we agreed that Raila is a natural born oppositionist. That is not necessarily a bad thing because his opposing traits have helped expose scandals which Kenyans might never have got wind of. Some may argue that if Raila had lost the elections fairly and duly conceded, Kenya would have had the best opposition ever.

Sometimes I allow myself the luxury of dreaming a little on the wild side. Ok, a lot. Supposing we had a different president other than the two for some time as we put our act together? Go on, feel free to dream. Our strange dreams will not be signed into law any time soon. John Githongo for example? PLO Lumumba? Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi? All worthy leaders but unfortunately, this being Kenya in February 2008, anyone born within our borders will elicit the tribal debate afresh. We’re therefore looking for a tribeless president people and that can only mean one from without. I told you it was wild!

I can feel the daggers but we’re dreaming remember? Look at it this way. We cannot expect a thief to be a fair jury in his own case. Even if Kibaki tried really hard to share power, he has to cover his interests. We know for a fact that he will not step down for Raila. In short Raila will not be president and Kibaki will not be a fair president. So we need this neutral person for a short time while we put our house in order. Before he/she learns the ropes of corruption, tribalism, land grabbing and other vices that seem to be necessary qualifications for our politicians, Kenya will be mended and it will be time for him/her to go. After which we can elect a whole new bunch of leaders – preferably people who have never held public office before. And Kenya can boast another first.

Breaking News: ODM Demo Called Off

ODM leader Raila Odinga has called off demonstrations slated for tomorrow after meeting Kofi Annan. In his quest to breathe new life to dead talks Annan is reported to be meeting Kibaki to take personal responsibility on his side to salvage Kenya.

The indefatigable Annan remain resilient in the face of PNU's pussy-footing and deceptive antics. Whether it amounts to another round of circular charades only time will tell given the lack of leadership from Kibaki's corner.

It is a national shame and unimaginable to have minister leading a negotiation team throw juvenile political tantrums in front of imminent persons. That is iron lady Martha Karua for Kenya, an epitome of Kibaki's illegitimate regime.

Finally Raila And Kibaki Dialogue Together

…….part 2……

The following takes place in private at statehouse between 10 am and 11 am two days after the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Committee stalled to reach a political settlement on the December general post election crisis

Raila: (bluntly, sounding edgy) look Stanley, this is getting us nowhere… we are going round in circles and it is frustrating

Kibaki: (sighing wearily) I know Amolo; I’ve got the UN, AU, EU and USA bullying on me, but I’ve told them not to make the mistake of putting a gun at my head…

Raila: (interrupting)…..then prove to the foreigners you can share - I want to be a prime minister with 2 deputies and we want powers and duties in a grand coalition government where we get to share cabinet positions

Kibaki: (scowling) ehhhh, have you forgotten? I have already proved once before that I can form a government of national unity, and I even included the opposition KANU into my government… I could do it again but this time….

Raila: (interrupting, speaking in a dark tone) look, I want a quick solution to resolve this issue. We cannot keep talking forever

Suddenly a door partly opens and a full hand clothed in pyjamas inserts itself into the room. The hand, which is lady-like in appearance, smartly makes the gesture of a slap-like motion in the air. As suddenly as the door opens it closes and the hand withdraws and disappears behind the door

Raila: (puzzled) who or what was that?

Kibaki: (oblivious) what are you talking about?

Raila (sounding a little scared) it was like a scene I saw once from that Rambo movie…

Kibaki: (now sounding nervous) hiyo usijali…..

silence

Kibaki: (sounding thoughtful) if you become prime minister, how will all 3 of you be removed from office? In 12…..err….11 months the office will fall vacant when we enact a review….err….new constitution

Raila: (sounding decisive) no, these three offices should only fall vacant if and when the grand coalition fails …you know, kama kazi haiendelei

Kibaki: (suddenly smiling upon hearing his party slogan) yes, kazi iendele! Kazi iende….

Raila: (scowling, angrily interrupting)…..Kibaki tosha! Chungwa ni moja usinisahau mimi…

Kibaki: (suddenly serious) what about my vision? You know I want the economy to grow and the country to achieve 7-8% GDP till 2030

Raila:(slyly) you know, our economy cannot survive political turmoils any longer, and.....

Kibaki: (interrupting, sounding worried) ....wacha! i know Kenya will overcome the current political challenges and get back on the track of development

Raila (continuing slyly) all Kenya needs from you is the political will and in no time we shall have a speedy resolution to this crisis

Kibaki: (distracted, thinking silently to himself......what time is it? Kikwete my agemate is soon coming for tea and i am feeling thirsty)

Raila: (thinking to himself....what time is it?i need to sambazza Nyong'o some credit to sms Balala that the date of those mass actions has changed from 29th to 28th February)

........part 3......

Breaking News: Talks Now Dead and Buried

Koffi Annan has officially suspended mediation talks. The charade that has been fashioned as mediation between PNU and ODM has forced Kofi Annan to officially suspend the talks. Livid Annan could not stand the deception any more and has called the mediators bluff.

To avert immediate OUTRAGE, Annan has promised to seek direct and personal support of the chief protagonists in Kibaki and Raila. That is akin to hanging HOPE by a bare thread. Mediation talks officially dead. Back to square one. So here we are folks staring abyss and a boiling brimstone behind us. Behind Anna's DIPLOSPEAK hides a smouldering mortar. When it explodes is a matter of time and not if. Tic tok tic tok.........

Kibaki’s Game Plan: Is A Major Purge Imminent?

PNU and ODM Reluctantly Return To The Negotiating Table

Most folks believe that history is pretty boring. And yet history never disappoints the researcher looking for answers to current problems. I am a researcher always looking for answers to current questions from history and I recently came across the following gem.

The Special Branch was formally created in 1952 mainly to help deal with the Mau Mau uprising. It acted as a secret intelligence unit for the colonial government. And guess what? What finished Mau mau was not the superior fire power. It was good intelligence from the Special Branch.

The reason why this information was a gem to me is because when the current mess is finally sorted out one of the things that will need to be looked at is the role played by the NSIS (National Security Intelligence Service) and especially the role of its’ Director General, one Major Gen, Michael Gichangi.

Historians will not fail to note that it was during Gichangi’s watch as “principal advisor to the president and the government of the Republic of Kenya on matters related to national security and intelligence” that the biggest political crisis in the history of East Africa unfolded in the country.

Fascinating tit bits about what the 49 year old did and more importantly what he did not do are beginning to emerge.

Read more

PNU and ODM Teams Return to Negotiating Table

The heat is on, as Annan says he has suspended many important assignments to be in Kenya (but PNU politicians seem to be taking the country in circles!)

After the government side introduced a new raft of demands that trashed a power-sharing deal reached in the infamous Kilaguni Lodge, it immediately resulted into a collapse of the mediation talks on Monday. But it seems all is not lost, because it now appears Kofi Annan has managed to bring the warring parties back to the negotiation table after meeting both Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga last evening.

As at the time of posting this, both parties were back meeting Annan and his group of eminent persons in their usual Serena Hotel rendezvous. It is unclear whether what they were unable to agree on Monday had been sorted out with their respective principals.

In order to achieve normalcy in Kenya, Annan and the international community are in agreement with the ODM in its quest for an immediate political settlement arising out of the disputed December 2007 election before deeper negotiations and agreements can be reached on the issue of constitution review. That immediate political settlement is: POWER SHARING.

Earlier Koffi Annan's aide had told CNN that the Chief Mediator would be leaving Kenya unless the protagonist reached an agreement. Annan himself issued a statement saying:
"After four hours of intense negotiation this morning, the team made almost no progress on reaching an agreement on government, I had to conclude that they were not capable of resolving the outstanding issues."

Annan's diplospeak is hardly revealing any failure, but it is revealing huge frustration and disappointment orchestrated by the Government side led by Martha Karua. Matters were not helped by the fact that the Local government minister - Uhuru Kenyatta - was engaging in blatant abuse of power by trying to influence (read-rig) the Nairobi and Nakuru mayoral polls in favour of PNU. This morning, the ECK Chairman, Samuel Kivuitu has uncharacteristically come out in support of ODM and disowned Uhuru Kenyatta with regard to the nomination of Esther Passaris by ODM.

Back to the Annan led mediation talks, Annan has been in Kenya for more than a month trying to resolve the elections crisis and it is said that it is the longest period he has spent on any conflict resolution. Annan met both Raila and Kibaki Monday evening and released a statement saying: "I believe that the Panel of Eminent African Personalities working with the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation has done its work. I’m now asking the party leaders, Hon Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki to do theirs."

Finally Kibaki And Raila Dialogue Together

The following takes place in private at statehouse between 10 am and 11 am one day after the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Committee stalled to reach a political settlement on the december general post election crisis

Kibaki: (cheerfully) Hi Amolo! how are you?

Raila: (hurt voice)….eh! Emilio, how do you think i am!?

Kibaki: (puzzled) ngoja! hakuna haja......tuko hapa sasa

Raila: (slightly happier) yes, just the two of us (suddenly suspicious) is this room tapped?

Kibaki: (laughing).....hapana.... (suspicious suddenly) are you tape recording us?

Raila: (laughing) ....no of course not

silence

Both men awkwardly embrace one another, secretly feeling for tape recorders

Kibaki: (first to break away) haya basi....kazi iendelee....

Raila:(following suite to break away) haya Kibaki, tosha....

a door suddenly opens and Dr.Annan pokes his head into the room

Annan: (sounding deeply disappointed) eminent gentlemen, now is the turn of you two personalities; you must reach an agreement on the governance of this country in 48-72 hours

as silently as he opened the door Dr. Annan's head disappears as he closes the door

Kibaki: (frowning) i was going to commend him for doing a good job-i wanted to ask him for tea as he is my age mate

Raila: (puzzled)

Raila: (abruptly changing the subject) do we agree in principle on creating a prime minister's post and sharing cabinet positions?

Kibaki: will it withstand the test of time? Will it enhance national cohesion, economic prosperity and stability?

Raila: the problem I have is you have such immense powers

Kibaki: (smiling) I know but what can I do/? Its in the current constitution

Raila: we need to revise the constitution

Kibaki: (hesitantly)…in 12 months maybe, yes

Raila: i want to be prime minister now-with two deputies

Kibaki:(sigh grudgingly) ok, ok-i will appoint all 3 of you, and together you can co-ordinate the performance of my government and....

Raila: (tone suddenly serious) i want executive power

Kibaki: my offer is non-executive...

Raila: i don't want to be the civil service head i want teeth and responsibilities

Kibaki: you know we could sign an MOU…

Raila: (rushing quickly) no

Kibaki: (puzzled) ok, how about some sort of gazette noti....

Raila: no

Kibaki: (more puzzled) ok, an act of parliament maybe, or...

Raila: (brightening) yes, parliament…..

Kibaki:(smiling) you see? We can agree after all! Now, as YOUR duly elected presid...

Raila: (rudely cutting in) i want security of tenure...

Kibaki:(interrupted)...ngoja....

Raila (continues in loud voice)...and i want a say on cabinet appointments....

Kibaki:….. skiza kwanza

Raila: (continues)....and I want to quit only when parliament is dissolved or a majority passes a resolution

silence

Kibaki: (thinking silently to himself) - these we can do without amending the constitution…..)

Raila: (thinking silently to himself)-I think he is thinking these we can do without amending the constitution

Raila: (speaking out loud) how long again did you say before we can revise the constitution?

Kibaki (thinking silently to himself…eh?! how did he know what I was thinking? What powers from Nigeria……?)

Kibaki (speaking out loud) 11 months now….we are in March already

Raila: (thinking silently to himself… (Let Nyong’o know mass action from 29^th this month)

Raila: (speaking out loud)….. okay

......part 1.......

Gang Raped and Maimed, Can Kenya Survive?

So what was all the heat about since December 27 last year? Kenyans have enjoyed the circular ride and lo the destination is where it all started. Karua has driven the last nail on hope’s coffin on behalf of Kibaki. The smart iron lady and gate keeper of STOLEN PRESIDENCY made sure she conditioned Kenyans well inn advance by flanking herself with three political flower boys during her stinging press conference on Sunday.

Kenya is a nation betrayed by Kibaki and consumed in deception. “No deal and Kenyans can go to HELL on one way ticket because return flights are not guaranteed”, so declares the straight shooting Karua to a besieged nation. Well, we all saw it coming and by the way you don’t steal an election to give it up in under 60 days. The talks were designed by Kibaki to be all heat and no light. It provided the much-needed breathing space for PNU to entrenched her illegal regime. After filling the police force with pliant officers (from you know where) the job is done and kazi iendelee.

Game over and poor Annan is left on a cliff dripping wet and exhausted. Welcome to deception made in Kenya. The plot hatched on the slopes of Mt. Kenya was to have ODM give ground believing in movement. Well the motion was well-crafted as process to have ODM expose all her arsenal. With that her hand innocently and fully stretched PNU came with laser guided axe wielded by hawk-eyed Karua. In a flash ODM lies down limbless gasping for breath with the Kenyan weight on her shoulders.

This is not a bad dream folks. Neither can it be reduced to mere pessimism. We are Kibaki planned to have us. Forget past experiences because all the bad memories we nothing but rehearsal. It is here. Ultimate product of deception dressed in neat gab of industry. It couldn’t get nastier and bloodier. While the decoy 6% kite flew the mast we were persuaded to bend over one more time as the masters rode our backs. Will we say enough is enough with our aching back? Time cannot tell because the lips have been chopped. The analogy of raping a willing lady was not apt but also prophetic.

Annan Mediation Now Hits Brick Wall

The much anticipated success of the Annan peace mission run into a cropper this afternoon when mediation teams emerged from the talks and declared that they were unable to reach a compromise and were now handing over the crux of the matter to their bosses (Kibaki and Raila) to decide for themselves how they wish to share power.

This is to be done through the Chief mediator Koffi Annan, before Wednesday this week when ODM ultimatum for mass action expires.

Following an unexpected statement by the PNU yesterday (Sunday), ODM were early today accusing their rivals of changing their minds about power-sharing.

Annan was said to have confirmed the stalemate but it is unknown if this also means that the so-called Serena talks have been officially wound-up.

A power-sharing deal has been imminent for the last two weeks but it appears the antagonist cannot reach an agreement on the extent of powers of the proposed office of the Prime Minister. ODM has announced it will accept nothing short of an executive prime minister and that whatever deal is agreed upon, it must be entrenched into the constitution.

This blogger will monitor the reactions of Raila and Kibaki regarding the latest development and post updates.

Africa's Fraudulent Elections - A Non-Violent Alternative (Atiku Abubakar)

Qorvis Communications (Washington, DC)

PRESS RELEASE
23 February 2008
Posted to the web 25 February 2008

By Atiku Abubakar


Nigeria will soon confront one of the most difficult challenges that any emerging Democracy must face, whether the rule of law as set by the courts will prevail. The Nigerian Supreme Court will soon decide if it will nullify last year's presidential elections on fraud charges. How the government reacts could well determine the future of the country. Nigeria is a sovereign nation, but the United States must urge the current leaders to abide by the Supreme Court's ruling. If not, the unfolding tragedy in Kenya and the violence in that neighboring country could well repeat itself.

On December 27th, Kenyans went to the polls to elect a president. The election was close, pitting an incumbent President Mwai Kibaki against opposition leader, Raila Odinga. Faced with the prospect of losing, President Kibaki apparently chose to steal the election, and in doing so, he precipitated an ethnic civil war. Thus far, about 1,000 Kenyans have died, and another 300,000 have fled their homes.


The election fraud last April in Nigeria was much worse than Kenya's. Incumbent President Obasanjo manipulated every stage of the process. Although I was elected as his Vice President, by the end of his second term, he used every instrument at his command to try to soil my reputation and prevent me from running so as to leave a clear path for him to change the constitution and allow himself a third term. I opposed his effort and was joined by a courageous majority in Parliament that prevented the constitutional change. The Supreme Court also stood up to him and rejected the charges of corruption that he trumped up against me. On the eve of the election, the Supreme Court ordered the Election Commission to put my name on the ballot.

By then, it was too late for my party to organize to win the election, but Obasanjo took no chances. He instructed the Chair of the Election Commission, Maurice Iwu, a pharmacist, to concoct the election results like a drug prescription.

Virtually every international and domestic observer denounced the fraud. General Buhari and I were the two principal opposition candidates, but instead of inflaming our supporters as the Kenyan leaders did, we encouraged our people to stay calm, and we took our case to court. The courts moved swiftly to nullify state elections, and they are now considering validity of the presidential election.

It is imperative that all of us have confidence that the Court will make the right decision, and I certainly have decided to place my trust there. If the Justices declare the election valid, I will accept the result. If they annul the election, the Court and our country will become a model for all of Africa, but we will need solidarity within Nigeria and help from the world to turn the promise of such a decision into a real democracy. The problem is that if a new election is held under Iwu and the same election law, it will be fraudulent, and the people will lose their patience.
If the Appeals Court declares the Presidential election invalid, I will urge my supporters to remain calm, and I will ask the other presidential candidates to join me to invite a group of world leaders to help us fashion a new Election Commission and a new Election Law that would permit us to adhere to the Constitution and prepare for Nigeria's first genuinely free and fair election.

Kenya has disillusioned many democrats in Africa. Our hope is that Nigeria's Supreme Court will send a message to all Africans that democracy is not only possible, it is essential to peace and ethnic coexistence. Incumbents will no longer be permitted to manipulate the electoral process. Election Commissions must be genuinely autonomous, impartial, and professional.

I pledge to do all that I can to assure that democracy and rule of law return to Nigeria peacefully. We hope that the world will stand with us and give Africans a reason again for hope."

Atiku Abubakar was Vice President of Nigeria from 1999-2007. He was the Presidential candidate of the Action Congress in the fraudulent election of April 2007.

No Need To Get Excited Over Nbi Mayoral Elections Plus Salim Lone Lies

I have the time right now just to say two quick things.

Firstly there is plenty of excitement over the Nairobi Mayoral elections today. But for what? It is reported that ODM's Councilor Majiwa has spent over Kshs 5 million to clinch the post. Now a mayor's salary is about Kshs 250,000 a month and it is usually for a two year term. Do the calculations and you will see that this kind of expenditure is NOT justified. Meaning that nothing has changed at City Hall and yet Kenyans are craving for change and giving their lives for it. You can bet that the campaign money will be recovered in the usual way. Corrupt deals. In fact I would not be surprised if Majiwa is being backed by the "sharks" some of whom have been known to sell chalk to the city of Nairobi in the pretext that it is chlorine for treating city tap water. Others sell bulbs for street lighting and then steal them back to resupply.

Esther Pasarris' candidature must have worried many people and Uhuru Kenyatta's claim that there is a clash of interests for Passaris and that's why he left out her name from the gazetted list of councilors is sheer rubbish because Passaris had the good sense to resign from Adopt-a-light when she announced her candidature. To me no Passaris, no excitement over Nairobi Mayoral elections. Period.

Secondly Salim Lone has denied my exclusive story in this blog concerning the death threats he received (the latest is that even his dogs were poisoned by somebody). My simple reply to Lone and everybody is that I stand by my story and I will not change a single comma. One day we will all know why a reputable journalist of Lone's standing is lying to the media. By the way the Nation journalist who did the Lone denial article completely missed the big story. He would have gotten it by asking the simple question; why has Lone quit his ODM post as media director at this time?

Still I take this opportunity to thank Mr Lone for telling the Nation that Kumekucha is "credible." Some of the folks at Nation Centre must hate the fact that their precious newspaper should contain such a statement.

I rest my case.

P.S. Kofi Anan visited retired President Moi at Kabarnet gardens last week. Now, what was that visit all about I wonder? My wild guess based on the fact that the only thing at the top of the mind for Anan right now are the peace talks. I reckon Anan has found Kibaki to be very difficult and wants Moi to help influence him on Anan's behalf. Any other wild guesses out there?

No Deal: Yet Another Week on Knife Edge

And the week of acute bouts of anxiety came to pass. The Kenyan nation start yet another week filled with bottled emotions. HOPE remains our singular consolation that the bottle manages to contain its potent contents. As to whether the good virtue of HOPE is bankable or realistic given our immediate past experience is any anybody’s guess.

Martha Karua has just extinguished the flicker of light by clarifying that no deal yet. True to form, the iron lady has banished such speculations to Siberia with the predictable rider that nothing can be crafted outside the mutilated constitution. Give it to PNU’s intellectual face. You see Karua is a straight talker who would hate to see depressed Kenyans ride dead hopes because as repeatedly reported here the outcome of Annan’s talks was known even before he met Graca and Mkapa. Call that pessimist if you wish but I can hear the little voice inside you nagging you to accept reality.

Poor Kofi Annan! The Ghanaian must be feeling full brunt of literally shouldering a nation’s fate. He must be surely one unique African endowed with BOUNDLESS and ELASTIC PATIENCE. He efforts are being frustrated from all directions to have him throw in the towel in desperation. But he is resilient and hanging on there. With petty games played on him virtually everyday he must summon all his wits to stay a float in the Kenya political kraal. No wonder he scaled the ranks to be the topmost global diplomat.

Postponed storm
So what next for Kenya? No rational human being derives pleasure from delivering bad news to others. But it is also morally criminal to stare failure in the face and fail to recognize it. True, HOPE is the oil that lubricates a depressed soul. On the same vain you do yourself no favour by burying your head to reality hoping against hope that a storm will evaporate.

Pessimists just like cowards live longer because of their tendency to factor in many REALITY constraints before seeking any optimal equation. According to them minimization is the other face of optimization. In essence minimalists are actually maximalists albeit in the reverse. Motivational speakers just like preachers are smart masters at preying into our collective and individual insecurities.

Sample this. Once upon a time a hen laid eggs which she left briefly while attending to other chores. On coming back she found a snake sleeping on the eggs claiming ownership. The snake refused to barge prompting the hen to seek mediation. First mediator tortoise (Tutu) implored the snake but was scorned and left in a huff. The hen then sought help from official king of the jungle lion (Kurffor). The snake told the lion to mind the bigger jungle but the eggs were hers. In desperation the hen sought help from the indomitable ELEPHANT (Annan) but the charade of denials and cheap games continued. Now it is incumbent upon the hen (Kenya) to engage the ULTIMATE, priceless and decisive weapon in safari ants (MASSES) to remove the snake.

A PROPHETIC story of just another of those trivialized gems? Well, judge for yourself. Fingers we must cross hoping for the best from Annan. But reality and experience also nags us to face the unpleasant truth. No honest Kenyan will hinge his HOPE on Kibaki giving any meaningful concession. Kazi inedelee (with all the intended vices) was an apt slogan not coined in vain. The so-called grand coalition will only derail the good works of industrialists.

Sunday Doodles: Kenya Shall Rise; It is Well

There is a hymn I like very much. The story behind the penning of the hymn is a humbling one indeed. The hymn, It is Well with My Soul, was penned by Horatio Spafford.
This hymn was written after several traumatic events in Spafford’s life. The first was the death of his only son in 1871, shortly followed by the great Chicago Fire which ruined him financially (he had been a successful lawyer). Then in 1873, he had planned to travel to Europe with his family on the S. S. Ville Du Havre, but sent the family ahead while he was delayed on business. While crossing the Atlantic, the ship sank rapidly after a collision with another ship, and all four of Spafford’s daughters died. Spafford’s wife, Anna, survived and sent him the now famous telegram, “Saved alone.” Shortly afterwards, as Spafford travelled to meet his grieving wife, he was inspired to write the hymn as his ship passed near where his daughters had died.

It is Well with My Soul

When peace like a river, attendeth my way,
When sorrows like sea billows roll;
Whatever my lot, Thou hast taught me to say,
It is well, it is well, with my soul.

It is well, with my soul,
It is well, with my soul,
It is well, it is well, with my soul.

Though Satan should buffet, though trials should come,
Let this blest assurance control,
That Christ has regarded my helpless estate,
And hath shed His own blood for my soul.

My sin, oh, the bliss of this glorious thought!
My sin, not in part but the whole,
Is nailed to the cross, and I bear it no more,
Praise the Lord, praise the Lord, O my soul!

It is well, with my soul
It is well, with my soul,
It is well, it is well, with my soul.

And Lord, haste the day when my faith shall be sight,
The clouds be rolled back as a scroll;
The trump shall resound, and the Lord shall descend,
Even so, it is well with my soul.

It is well, with my soul,
It is well, with my soul,
It is well, it is well, with my soul.

Just like Horatio, Kenyans have lost a lot and some are barely holding on. Some are holding to a thin, frayed thread to avoid sliding off the edge of the precipice into an abysmal abyss. And the thread is threatening to snap…

One thing I believe with all my heart is that Kenya will rise above this present situation (oh, but at what cost!); Kenyans will smile again; Kenyans will ‘live’ to see tomorrow. This has, and will always be, my prayer.

Every time I look into the eyes of the children in the camps, tears well up in my eyes and course down the entire breadth of my face. If only tears could help!

I call upon all of us to help in our own unique ways. Emotionally: hold, embrace, speak positive words to the affected etc; Socially: offer whatever you could offer to alleviate the suffering (food, clothing etc).

Let the Golden Rule ‘speak’ in our actions: Do unto others what you would like them to do unto you.

Have a blessed week.

(Drop me a line at: undaunted at yahoo dot com)

Political Settlement: Halfway House

On 27th of December last year, Kenyans went to the polls and spoke out loud about the people they wanted to see ascend the political ladder (and those they didn’t want to stay up there a second longer!). But the events that followed this “loud decision” clearly placed Kenya among the countries that do no not care two hoots about the welfare of its people.

Kenyans were (and have since remained) strangulated, asphyxiated and raped off their democratic right.

This led to the unleashing of the most potent ‘demon’ that resides in humans to take full course: hate, ‘violent’ suspicion, murder, ethnic ‘turbulence’, ‘incompatible’ co-existence and a host many other evils.

All of as sudden our very identities became a threat to our existence, to our freedom and to precious life. Our names became the determining factor. One mention of our names would determine the direction of the sharp machetes. Our identity cards spoke against us. “Wacha nione kipande yako” became a life-threatening question.

Millions of Kenyans have lost their lifelines, their jobs and hope of any possible respite coming their way. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced and their properties lost in the innocuous ‘conflagration’ (both literally and metaphorically speaking!).

The wounds and hurt in our hearts, as Kenyans, beggars description. I believe that not even the most perfect and prolific wordsmith in town can put it in words (that includes our very own good writers here at Kumekucha Chris, Taabu, and Phil). Anyway, we don’t need words to explain the feeling.

Now there is talk of a political settlement between PNU and ODM. Well, this, to me, is like offering quack cures for old ills. A halfway house of sorts! We need more than our paunchy fellows at Serena are offering. How do they plan to deal with the frayed, threadbare fabric of society? On the ground, co-existence among different ethnic groups is stifled. “Gargantuan” amounts of mistrust rule the air among the different tribes. A very sorry state indeed!

Well, again, the very people who lost in the elections are the very guys who ‘want’ (want really? ) to give a piece of the action, a piece of the power, to the other group. Theatre of the absurd, methinks.

Is it a Grand Coalition or a Transitional Government?

Impeccable sources in Nairobi are this morning revealing that contrary to what is publicly being peddled that the Annan peace mission is aimed at creating a Prime Minister's post in a grand coalition government, the talks have actually been discussing ways of creating a TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT to be led by none other than Sabatia MP and former KANU Vice President Musalia Mudavadi.

In yet to be verified claims, sources further reveal that Musalia Mudavadi will be deputised by a Vice President to be nominated from the PNU side. Kalonzo Musyoka's name had been mentioned but was outrightly rejected by the ODM side. Names that have been forwarded for consideration as possible contenders included Uhuru Kenyatta, Prof. Sam Ongeri, George Saitoti and even gender balance in Dr. Naomi Shaban have been put forward as possible contenders.

It is unclear how the choice of the transitional leader was reached but Mudavadi has long been viewed as a moderate in ODM and as an individual who PNU insiders (read Athuri group) can work with.

Ironically, this is the very proposal ODM put forward immediately after the disputed elections and they were rejected by the PNU side.

The transitional government is the one that will be mandated to implement the deal that was agreed upon in Kilaguni Lodge last week. The Kilaguni agreement was very comprehensive and it included constitutional reforms that will comprise the following:

• Comprehensive Constitutional reforms
• Comprehensive electoral reform – including of the electoral laws, the electoral commission and dispute resolution mechanisms
• A truth, justice and reconciliation commission
• Identification and prosecution of perpetrators of violence;
• Respect for human rights
• Parliamentary reform
• Police reform
• Legal and Judicial reforms
• Commitment to a shared national agenda in Parliament for these reforms
• Other legislative, structural, political and economic reforms as needed.
  

Even more significantly, the agreement reached at Kilanguni had also proposed the creation of an Independent Review Committee, that would be mandated to investigate all aspects of the 2007 Presidential Election and make findings and recommendations to improve future electoral processes. The Committee is expected to be a non-judicial body and be made up of Kenyan and non-Kenyan recognized electoral experts of the highest professional standing and personal integrity. The Committee will be expected to submit its report within 3-6 months and it should be published within 14 days of submission. It is scheduled to begin its work not later than 15 March 2008. The findings of the Independent Review Committee must be factored into the comprehensive electoral reforms that are planned by the interim government.

If these developments are true and an agreement is signed next week, Kenya's political landscape will dramatically change overnight. However, it remains to be seen if such a development will eliminate the post election violence that has left the nation deeply scarred and divided.

It is also unlikely that both Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga will seek re-election as president in the new political set-up. The former may bow out on account of age and health, while the latter may be satisfied serving as Prime Minister, a position that is bound to be created by the new devolved constitution that the interim government will facilitate.

Hopes Fade, Mediation Team Takes Weekend Adjournment

Kenya's 'de facto president' Raila Odinga, of the popular Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

It now appears that the deep divisions regarding the powers of the proposed Prime Minister's post have driven the weary mediation team apart and in effect left very little hopes for a political deal between ODM and PNU anytime soon.

No deal? Kenyans brace for the worst!

By the time the talks adjourned late Friday evening, hopes for a deal announcement quickly evaporated when neither Annan nor his spokesperson showed up at the press briefing. Media houses who have set up permanent camps (complete with OB vans and satellite) at Serena Hotel were disppointed when Annan failed to show up. The press have been forced to work in shifts so as to keep a 24 hour vigil at the five star hotel where the talks are taking place.

An optimistic and upbeat Annan last addressed a press conference accompanied by US secretary of state Condi Rice a couple of days ago. It looks like the agreement that was apparently 'signed' by the warring parties in Kilanguni lodge last Friday is already being disregarded. How is Annan taking all this?

To add insult to injury, this morning, the ODM captain Raila Odinga (pictured) skipped an appointment with Jean Ping, the new chairman of the African Union (executive) Commission. That was after the PNU team needlessly kept Kofi Annan, his eminent persons panel and the ODM team waiting for five hours after taking an early break (buying time) yesterday to attend, sic, the funeral of the man who set-up the infamous Nyayo House torture chambers and the brainchild behind Kenya's biggest scam of all time - Goldenberg International. That man was known as James Kanyotu.

Jean Ping was met by Uhuru Kenyatta on arrival in Nairobi's JKI Airport and carefully shepherded to Kalonzo Musyoka's Harambee House office yesterday before meeting Mwai Kibai this morning. While the AU have not officially endorsed the PNU government, their behavior and amateurish actions clearly show which side they fall on. During Mr. Ping's visit, ODM were kept out of the picture as was Annan and his team. Ironically, Annan is in Kenya under the AU auspices. Perhaps this tightly and remote-controlled itinerary may have probably upset the ODM and made them send a junior team to meet Jean Ping.

Although Raila was reportedly flown to Nigeria on chartered jet, no official in Abuja nor Lagos can confirm his presence in Nairaland. The Nigerian foreign affairs minister is not aware of Raila's visit. In a nutshell, Raila's whereabouts - Kenya's de facto president - is publicly unknown. What is going on?

Both PNU and ODM teams reportedly emerged from Serena Hotel late Friday evening saying that they were giving each other the weekend for consultations and would resume talks on Monday. Kofi Annan was nowhere to be seen.

Meanwhile, state intimidation moved to another level when ODM pointman in Uasin Gishu Jackson Kibor spent the second night in police custody after police announced they would arraign him in court on murder charges. Family, doctor and lawyers have been barred from seeing the 72 year-old diabetic Kibor. This afternoon, Kibor was subject of a heated argument between ODM legislators and journalists who had gone to cover the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting.