Danger Ahead For Kenya: The People To Watch

I read a comment today from one of our dear readers begging for real news rather than just commentaries.

I hereby oblige.

Yesterday President Kibaki met with the chief of general staff, Jeremiah Kiaga, the NSIS chief Michael Gichangi, the police commissioner Maj Gen Ali and other leaders of various security related institutions in the country.

That is very big news for several reasons. In fact you can interpret this information in many different ways but based on the information I have, I can only equate it to the strange incident that happened shortly after Mwai Kibaki was announced the winner of the 2007 general elections. There was suddenly heavy security presence surrounding the City Mortuary.

Folks, something is about to happen and whatever it is, it is big and it involves the security of the country.

My dear readers it is important that you now learn how to read the situation. Let me give you a recent example. Martha Karua and the other PNU negotiators had a press conference on Sunday. Basically it was to say that an agreement is not an agreement until it is signed. Do you remember what happened the very next day? Kenyans were very optimistic but barely a day after that press conference, the talks collapsed.

Now I will make it easier for you. The following are the people whose body language you should take very careful note of.

Mwai Kibaki: Beware when he fiddles with his left hand on his lap when he is seated. That means he is getting impatient or irritated or both.).

Martha Karua: The pace with which she walks is very important. Quick means that she is under pressure from her boss to go ballistic and cause chaos. The whole game plan is to take Anan round in circles until the guy gives up and goes back to Ghana. But a big mistake many readers here make, Karua does not make any decisions, unlike Nicholas Biwott whom most Kenyans compare her to. She just follows instructions to the letter. Need I tell you from who?

Mutula Kilonzo: Ignore him. But the wider his eyes are when he faces the camera, the more reckless the instructions that have been given to Ms Karua. But ignore what he says. Basically he always says NOTHING.

Moses Wetangula: Listen carefully to what he says because it will usually be a reply to the last irritating telephone call one Mwai Kibaki received from one Condi Rice. The British these days are quiet since their last letter to Mwai Kibaki’s administration. Briefly that letter confirmed what High commissioner Wood had already said, that the position of her Majesty’s government is that they DO NOT recognize the Kibaki administration. In other words the guys are in office illegally. Period. But do be careful about the British. Those guys are deadly and they usually think through everything they do. Meaning that their failure to recognize the Kibaki government means that they have scanned the whole sum and seen the final answer, when everybody else is still working out the sum. I will say no more.

Gichira Kibara: This radical hardliner lawyer, I know personally and I know him well. He is never in the public limelight. But the reason for his presence in the Anan talks is very clear to me. By the way, Gichira I have seen the comments that you have left here and also the others you have attempted to leave. You did not need to leave your name. We lived together under the same roof for almost six years, remember? Ninakujua vizuri sana.

The reason for Gichira’s presence in the talks is that he represents the President’s closest advisors and carefully takes instructions from them to protect their interests and ensure that nobody does anything stupid at the talks with Anan (like give an inch of ground.)

I would not be at all surprised if it was his briefing that caused the Sunday press conference. Deep inside this guy’s heart, he does not believe that the Luo community deserve to exist and if they must, he does not believe that they should come anywhere near power or leadership.

The ODM guys? Ignore them. What power do they have? As a party they do NOT even control the Kalenjin warriors in the Rift Valley. Those guys take their instructions from some other radicals, I’d better not write about here. Trust me sometimes what you don’t know helps a lot in keeping you calm and sane and hopeful.

As our beloved KTN TV news anchors put it the other day; the buck stops with Mwai Kibaki. He alone has the power to make an agreement happen 2 weeks ago. In my view Kibaki has not shown any leadership in his life and especially since that memorable day December 30th 2002 at Uhuru Park. And that is why we are in this mess in the first place. How I long for Moi sometimes, despite every bad thing he did.

Can Kibaki show leadership now? Is it possible to teach an old dog new tricks? You be the judge.


The groups below, you must also keep an eye on and some other characters I will talk about soon. The information below was sent to me by Sarah Kanini I don't agree with everything she says though.

She said in her email;


DO not blame Mungiki since the president is a kikuyu and the group comprises of Kikuyus, every community is at pain here in fact Luo and Luyha have more warrior groups unlike Kikuyus

Kenya is at risk of plunging into a new wave of violence, despite progress in negotiations to end a political crisis, because several armed groups are mobilizing on all sides of the country's ethno-political divisions.

Firearms are much less widely available in Kenya than in neighbouring countries. In the context of this article, "armed groups" include those using machetes, spears, poison arrows and clubs.

Extremists and militia are preparing for new confrontation on both camps and ODM [the opposition] believes that if international mediation fails, its only protection against repression and hope for a settlement will be its capacity to raise the stakes through violence,"

Kenya has a number of groups of youths claim to protect their regions,

Mungiki: Kikuyu male membership is drawn mainly from some parts of Central Province .

Kalenjin warriors: Well-organized community defense training forms an integral part of the graduated progress from childhood to adulthood in the seven ethnic groups collectively known as Kalenjin.

Sabaot Land Defence Force: The Sabaot Land Defense Force has been blamed for most of the violence that has rocked the western district of Mt Elgon in the past two years. It was formed after claims of injustice over land allocation in a settlement scheme in the district.
Mt Elgon conflict involves two main clans of the dominant Sabaot community - the majority Soy clan and the minority Ndorobo clan � OVER LAND

Chinkororo: is the Kisii equivalent of Kalenjin warriors, and represents the armed wing of the Abagusii community, which is found in several districts in the western ethnic Luo-dominated Nyanza Province .

Mulungunipa Forest Group: This little-known group is said to be based in the coastal district of Kwale
Taliban : mainly Luo and active in Mathare, Huruma, Baba Dogo, Kariobangi North and Kariobangi South quarters of Nairobi �s Eastlands district.
Members communicate and identify themselves via a system of secret hand signals.

Baghdad Boys: Vigilantes active in Kibera , Kenya 's largest slum, whose members are drawn mostly from the Luo community, and use slingshots and knives.
Kosovo: Another vigilante group based in Kibera, including members from the Luo and Luhya communities, using slingshots and knives

Jeshi la Mzee aka Kamjesh
Another slum-based gang specializing in extortion and protection rackets, targeting operators of public minibuses. Membership is mixed, comprising Kikuyu, Luo, Maasai, Kisii and the Luhya.