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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Which Way Kenya?

Danger Ahead for Kenya: The People To Watch

It is now exactly two months since Kenyans enthusiastically came out in their masses to cast ballots in favour of their preferred political leaders. What should have been a straight forward electoral process has turned out to be our worst nightmare. The general elections have polarised the country ethnically.

After wasting more than 1500 lives and displacing nearly half a million others, the general elections have left many a Kenyan with deep regret as to why they even bothered to vote in the first place and many others are frustrated to the point of vowing never ever to vote again.

Nairobi has now become a global VIP destination with visitors including nobel price winners, presidents, diplomats, peace-makers, etc. The Kenya crisis has also been in the headlines since December. This just goes to say how high the stakes are. Interestingly, few of these high-profile visitors have made it to State House – Mwai Kibaki’s preferred work station. Most have met Kibaki at the official Harambee House offices.

On the other hand, the current political impasse shows just how powerful the so-called old order forces are in this country that claims to have been independent for nearly half a century and that which, as we have always been reminded, is a sovereign state. Threats of visa ban and asset freeze do not seem to be producing any results towards a resolution of the elections impasse.

Whereas the Orange Democratic Movement led by Raila Odinga have made significant concessions in the crisis arising out of the disputed elections, the Party of National Unity led by Mwai KIbaki have made none at all - in terms of acknowledging the concerns of their rivals or even ceding executive powers. Instead, PNU has been changing positions each time they are requested to show commitment on agreed issues and in the process playing deadly political gambling with the very livelihoods of the people of Kenya – all in the name of retaining political power.

Ever since the crisis started, the ODM have played their political cards much better than the PNU. To begin with, PNU forget that this crisis is all about politics and NOT about what the constitutional law says. In any case, everyone is in agreement, it is this very constitution that has led us to this hole we find ourselves in. Secondly, it is clear to all that PNU’s line-up on the mediation table is not what one would call negotiators but ‘defenders’ – no wonder they have failed to reach a compromise! Thirdly, it is PNU that is in control of state instruments and it is them who will ultimately determine whether the crisis will degenerate into anarchy or peace. Perhaps it is this state power that has made PNU become too reckless in its pronouncements and so amateurish in its dealings with people who matter in global affairs.

Whether rightly or wrongly, ODM have managed to depict themselves as the victims and it appears the civil society, the press, the international community and even the majority of the Kenyan population agree that power-sharing as opposed to an MOU-type of arrangement. As a matter of fact, Kofi Annan was taken aback by PNU hardliners who accused him of siding with killers (ODM) something which clearly shocked him and that which prompted him to suspend the Serena talks and opt to engage directly with the principals.

The big question is: After hastily taking oath of office on 30th December, is Mwai Kibaki truly in charge of this country or are there some unseen forces that are actually ruling this country by proxy? Who is holding our leaders hostage? Looking at the history of both ODM and PNU leaders, and the backers they had during their intensive campaign periods; it is easy to tell who between the two is lying in bed with the OLD ORDER and who has been out there advocating for CHANGE. It is also easy to tell who is sweeping historical injustices under the carpet.

Although the country has returned to an uneasy calm in recent weeks, many observers opine that this has only given private militias the opportunity to re-arm because PNU and ODM are unlikely to reach an agreement and therefore matters will have to be sorted out physically.

Sources now say, as a last resort, Kenya’s military is on high alert awaiting orders of deployment to contain civil strife that is sure to follow the failure of Annan’s mediation mission. A strong pointer to this was the unusual attendance of the Chief of General Staff, General Kianga, at yesterday’s meeting between Kibaki together with his PNU team and Kofi Annan with his eminent persons team. In other words, Gen. Kianga was part of the PNU team that met with Kofi Annan who is on a AU sanctioned mission to Kenya.

Related:

Kibaki's Game Plane: Is a Major Purge Ahead?

23 comments:

mrembowaodm said...

now phil, this is a post i fully agree with...maybe I am biased coz I love raila (but what to do?!)the truth is the truth!!

i dont see the point of sugar-coating anything...the reality is very hard to grapple with...but i think kenya is headed for very hard times ahead!!

it is a given that annan wont get anything out of these 'talks'.

if you ask me, kibaki knows after the deal goes sour 'by the end of this week?!!' odm does not even have to call for mass action nature will be more than happy to take its own course!! that is probably why kianga was there as you so rightly pointed out!!


my only hope at this time is divine intervention coz otherwise we are SCREWED!!

Anonymous said...

This crisis is not about politics, it is about the constitution and the rule of law. Kibaki is the president because of the constitution, those VIPs are coming to Kenya because they want to make sure their countries' interests are safe. Kofi is in Kenya because he had nothing better to do since retiring from the UN. The talks are going on because the world was terrified by the ethnic-cleansing that was supported and funded by the ODM according HRW.

Up to date, the ODM pentagon (war council) has not refuted the Human Rights Watch report nor is Kumekucha concerned with that! If ODM has peacefully demostrated and Kibaki dared issue the orders of shoot to kill, the world would have been outraged. No one would be talking to Kibaki, instead, ODM chose to kill Kisii, Kambas, Kikuyus and even Luhyas to make a political point.

ODM has lost momentum and that is why they cannot count on their supporters showing at any demo.

How silly can RAO get, ati we gave up demanding Kibaki resign but we insist that he cedes all the power to us, what is the difference? who are they fooling with the executive PM talk? Why can't they commit to a constitution amendment within a given time?

Kibaki is right, he shoudn't give in, Al Gore never got no executive powers, neither did Victor in Ukraine. It is democracy, winner forms government, loser forms the opposition. If you are not happy with the results, you go to court. Tomorrow RAO is going to collect his second pay as the leader of official opposition and his supporters will collect stones to through at the GSU!

I hope they don't claim that the KCSE results were also rigged, all the top schools are Lesotho!

fave of BG said...

Let me give you a point why we are going to fight soon.
'Kibaki says current issues with Anan negotiations can be solved within current constitution' Ok, Stay with me on this one.

'Kibaki accepts the formation of the office of the prime minister'

No having spend the whole night going through that piece of antiquated crap that is the constitution, I have not come across the office of the prime minister.

My question is how can he accept settlement within the current constitution when there is no part of the constitution that deals with the proposed solution?

Basically, he is telling ODMers take a dip in pig's manure for all care, Open your mouth let me take a crap in it?
How PNU has the gall to mouth tripe on a constant basis remains a mystery, at least to me.
I suppose now a few of you can see the smoke being blown in own of your own very eyes. and you know no one ever got their rights so very easily sealed and packaged in a box. They went out and yanked them from the hands of the oppressor

Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS.........

The power sharing deal has been sealed by Annan kibaki and Raila.
Lets hope it works. Press conference by annan before end of day.
I hope martha doesnt rush before him. Martha Ashindwe!

Anonymous said...

Comment moderation is a good step, i believe it wil stop idlers from posting those long boring irrelevant messages.

Kudos KK

mrembowaodm said...

phil and kumekucha!!.....

i hear annan has found a solution for the kenyan crisis is it really true? i heard it was going to be signed at 4pm today, please confirm?!!

ama they will pull out again at 3.59pm?!!

waiting with abated breadth!!!

sincerely,

pessimist

Kheng.Fu said...

Just watch KTN and they are saying Annan Press Conference at 4PM EAT time about 26 minutes from now apparently they have reached an agreement

Anonymous said...

Mediator Kofi Annan said Kenya's government and opposition had reached agreement on a power-sharing deal at talks on Thursday to end the country's deadly post-election crisis.

"We have come to an understanding on the coalition agreement," Annan told reporters after meeting President Mwai Kibaki, opposition leader Raila Odinga and African Union head Jakaya Kikwete. Annan said he would give details at 1300 GMT.

Thursday's talks brought Odinga and Kibaki to the same table for the first time in a month, after discussions between negotiators for the two men hit a deadlock earlier in the week.

"We've had a very constructive and fruitful day and we've come to an understanding on the coalition agreement ... I'm not in a position to tell you anything further, all that I can say is we do have an agreement," Annan said.

Odinga and Kibaki have come under intense pressure to compromise over Kibaki's disputed re-election in a Dec. 27 vote, which sparked ethnic violence that killed 1,000 people and displaced 300,000 more.

The opposition had threatened to hold mass street protests on Thursday, but called them off after meeting Annan, a former U.N. Secretary-General, on Wednesday.

Kibaki has agreed to create a prime minister post, as demanded by the opposition, but it was unclear what powers a premier would have and how many cabinet jobs Odinga's side would get.

The crisis that exploded after Kibaki was sworn in on Dec. 30, amid Odinga's claims the election was rigged, seriously hurt Kenya's reputation as a stable, prosperous nation in a turbulent corner of Africa.

Anonymous said...

While you are busy focussing on the negative, the two are ready to sign a deal any moment from now! Messengers of doom and destruction washindwe kabisa!

Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS: RAILA AND KIBAKI FINALLY AGREE
KENYAN leaders have agreed to work in a coalition government starting Thursday evening, chief mediator Kofi Annan has announced.

In what is seen as a dramatic end to a conflict that has seen over 1,000 people dead, the leaders are expected to sign documents of the historic agreement at 4pm today.

Annan said, " i am pleased to announce that the leaders have agreed to work together in a coalition government and we will be announcing the details when they sign it at 4pm this evening."

He spoke after meeting with Raila Odinga, Mwai Kibaki, Benjamin Mkapa and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anonymous said...

Annan says Kenya talks reach agreement
Thu 28 Feb 2008, 12:19 GMT

[-] Text [+] (Adds Annan comment on agreement)

By Duncan Miriri

NAIROBI, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Mediator Kofi Annan said Kenya's government and opposition had reached agreement on a power-sharing deal at talks on Thursday to end the country's deadly post-election crisis.

"We have come to an understanding on the coalition agreement," Annan told reporters after meeting President Mwai Kibaki, opposition leader Raila Odinga and African Union head Jakaya Kikwete. Annan said he would give details at 1300 GMT.

Thursday's talks brought Odinga and Kibaki to the same table for the first time in a month, after discussions between negotiators for the two men hit a deadlock earlier in the week.

"We've had a very constructive and fruitful day and we've come to an understanding on the coalition agreement ... I'm not in a position to tell you anything further, all that I can say is we do have an agreement," Annan said.

Odinga and Kibaki have come under intense pressure to compromise over Kibaki's disputed re-election in a Dec. 27 vote, which sparked ethnic violence that killed 1,000 people and displaced 300,000 more.

The opposition had threatened to hold mass street protests on Thursday, but called them off after meeting Annan, a former U.N. Secretary-General, on Wednesday.

Kibaki has agreed to create a prime minister post, as demanded by the opposition, but it was unclear what powers a premier would have and how many cabinet jobs Odinga's side would get.

The crisis that exploded after Kibaki was sworn in on Dec. 30, amid Odinga's claims the election was rigged, seriously hurt Kenya's reputation as a stable, prosperous nation in a turbulent corner of Africa. (Additional reporting by Wangui Kanina and Bryson Hull; Writing by Giles Elgood; editing by Bryson Hull) (For in depth coverage on Reuters Africa Web site: http://africa.reuters.com/elections/kenya/ )

Anonymous said...

Im sure uve heard about the supposed pwer sharing agreement.

Im also sure that the gvt will come out tmoro and accuse Annan of spreading rumours.

We are all doomed

Anonymous said...

Kenya's rivals 'reach agreement' 28th FEB 08, 12:43pm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7268903.stm

Anonymous said...

we need news.

What r the contents of this agreement?

ODM must have accepted peanuts or it's a lie

Anonymous said...

All media except KBC is reporting a power sharing agreement.

Anonymous said...

There seems to be an agreement. Annan made sure the two men met on the same table with AU chairman Jakaya Kikwete and they agreed on the modalities of power sharing. NOTE: The document has not been signed and i shudder to imagine Kibaki in his clandestine ways will renege again.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080228/wl_nm/kenya_crisis_dc

Anonymous said...

Phil,
Why are you not giving us the great breaking news that an agreement has been reached.Ama you didn't want an agreement to be reached.

demogod said...

Finalkly, a deal has been signed for a cooaltion government which consists of a President, VP , PM & 2 DPM. The PM & 2DPM cannot be removed by the President, only through the parliament via a vote of no confidence.

This agreement is to be entrenced in the constituitions and the parliamenet needs to be convened immediately to pass the necessary laws..

Is this now the beginning of the New Kenya we have wished for, our will our leaders let us down. Will there be another election in a year or two???

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7268903.stm

Anonymous said...

Breaking News!!

It's a deal! Kibaki and Raila have agreed on a 50-50 sharing of power. Kibaki will appoint a prime minister and two deputies. The prime minister will cordinate and supervise government functions.

Jeff

Anonymous said...

there is something very sinister in the fact that the finer details of the agreement are yet to be released.

All that is being said that there will be the position of prime minister and some cabinet positions yet the document setting out the agreement has been signed.

Curious indeed!

Anonymous said...

kumekucha allow us to exchange views for a few hours.At least until tomorrow morning.

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha?? are you still blocking views??

odmdamu said...

Kumekucha, am now wondering whether you have been a pnuer trying to get odmers minds. This i say because of the following:-

1. Yesterday, there was anxiety when Annan said that there was an agreement finally whose details he can not reveal until the deal is signed. You posted nothing about it.

2. You blocked this comment site such that views were to be verified before being posted, why yesteday when things were hot.

3. Now the chat sat where we talk "live" is under maintenance. Why now?

Unless you give me genuine reasons for the above, I am now doubting your stand in all these.

This is from none other than the one odmdamu.

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