Political Obituary 2013: Complete Revised Edition

By KK Blogger

As Kenyans painfully and anxiously wait to see who between Uhuru or Raila is send down crashing, the voters have not disappointed by once again embarrassing notable political faces in the five-year ritual.

While some of us are still waiting for the Uhuru Shocker to sink in or evaporate, whichever comes first, the following towering political giants have a lot in common courtesy of the electorate.

So-called seasoned political heavyweights lost both their mass and pedigree. Here is a short list of the voters obituary so far:

Octagarians William Ntimama and Henry Kosgey: wise men who should have figured out when to let the younger generation take over the chase in the latest hunt in his own backyards.

Charity Ngilu, a presidential contender that never was to begin with, and known to blame her former political rivals for everything that seemed to go wrong in her malfunctioned camp.

Ali Chirau Mwakwere, the self-proclaimed whale that survived the last beaching but went on and mistook an artificial lagoon for the barrier reefs, where he ended up being swallowed by a talented homegrown catfish.

Gitobu Imanyara, ended up accepting the fact that being forced to face Mt. Kenya was not a bad idea after all, despite of the great odds and bright sunrays that have continued to melt ice from most peaks.

Samuel Poghisio, thought he had it cushioned and made for another ten years, but was unaware that the county grazing grounds were far large and diverse than those in his former constituency. What did him in and hastened his demise was the fact he had failed to he needed to make sure that people who don't own planes or rent helicopters, deserve to have better rural access roads and bridges, among other very basic services in the last ten years.

Chris Okemo, swallowed more ngenge that he could chew, given his pending legal problems and pressures derived form fears of being extradited to a foreign court system to face justice.

Cyrus Jirongo, a man with the largest war chest worth billions shillings could not manage to convince his people to help him take one of the regional bull fighter by the horns.

Nicholas Biwott, fails to understand that his region, people and rest of the country has made great strides since 1992 and 2002, one of the reasons he will now be remembered as 'a man who got totaled at the polls' when he least expected it.

Mukhisa Kituyi, is man known to have come from far, don't forget to check out a 1989 photo of him taken at Hillcrest Hotel, at a time when was still working for ACTION AID. He should have known better and avoided wrangling it out with a formidable opponent like Musa Wetangula.

Musikari Kombo, was best suited for the elders' council but refused to join his villagers and clansmen due to lack of humility. He still views himself as a king and champion who helped win the political battles that were fought during the early-mid 1990s. Very few of his own trusted people are still afraid of reminding him that he considered as a man whose time evaporated long time ago.

Chris Murungaru, there is very little to talk about the man because the latest humiliating defeat at the polls speaks volumes.

Amos Kimunya, seem to have never gotten the memo that "he must go" and stay away from active politics forever. The bullfighter had tried to gore him several years ago but the establishment prevailed by helping him retain his portfolio at the time.

The list goes on where many more political giants have either bitten the dust or are in the process of be floored by newcomers whose names were relatively unknown two years ago.

Stay tuned as more prominent motor-mouths kiss the political dust.

Uhuru shocker: Prepare for president Uhuru Kenyatta

In all my 20 years of political analysis, even I was not prepared for what is unfolding before our very eyes.

I have just finished carefully analyzing the provisional results streaming in from the IEBC and coming from a cross section of polling stations across the country. They tell a shocking story. Not only will Uhuru win the presidency in the first round but he is set to do it with a resounding victory that should give him close to 60 per cent of the vote (or even more, according to my calculations).

Any serious political pollster will tell you that the polling stations announced so far are similar to a massive and more accurate poll (because of the numbers). Remember that a poll of even 1,500 for a population of 200 million will still give you very accurate results.

Kenyans now need to prepare themselves for the consequences of a Uhuru presidency which will include a cold shoulder from the West and possibly sanctions. However the good news is that the baton of leadership has finally been passed on to a new younger generation of leaders which can only be good news for long suffering Kenyans.

Political analysts will want to carefully study how the son of Jomo did it. The answers will have to start from a man called William Ruto, master strategist and the real brains behind the successful Uhuru campaign. Ruto defied all odds and kept the bid alive against considerable pressure and odds which I will discuss here in the days to come as the results become official and more clearer to Kenyans. If Ruto is allowed to remain the real political brains behind the Uhuru administration then this is going to be one formidable presidency with a fighting chance of being equal to task and the huge challenges that lay ahead, including a looming date with the ICC at the Hague.

The Jubilee campaign seems to have successfully positioned itself as the young new fresh beginning the nation needs against the old and tired CORD leadership of much older candidates for President and Vice President. The result seems to have been a massive following from the young people of Kenya (many of them voting for the first time) who for better or worse have spoken rather emphatically at the ballot. There is no denying that the bid was helped all along by the massive Kikuyu and Mount Kenya voting bloc of zombies.

Wow.

What Kenyans must now do is to try and leave the elections and all the emotions involved with it behind them and rally behind the new administration to find the best way to use this opportunity to speed up true institutional reforms in the country.

Finally Here Comes the Tyranny of Real Numbers

The candidates have done their part. They have hawked their manifestoes. They have peddled their values and virtues. They have cajoled us and shoved each other. They have danced themselves lame.

Well, their time is over. It is now the time for the real opinion poll. The Kenyan voter must now make an appointment with his/her political destiny.

The candidates may have generated plenty of heat. But the campaigns have been relatively very peaceful. Kenya appears to have learned the bitter lessons from the 2007/8 near-Armageddon.

Seeing all the candidates commit themselves to peace and honour the outcome was a giant step to political maturity. While our smelly past may make many conjure up conspiracy theories, hope remains our best asset. Only fools would lead Kenya to another cesspit.

There comes a time when the late Saitoti's clarion call of Kenya being bigger than all of us is most apt. Come Tuesday and Kenya will still be there for both the losers and winners.

The real revolution of 2002 may have been betrayed. Kibaki did his part. Now let the 4thn President pick the gaunlet and take Kenya to where we belong.

It is time for the Kenyan voter shine the light of democracy and run away with it. Come on Kenya, make yourself proud and join the society of civilized nations.

What is the role of Gichangi and the NSIS In Elections 2013?

Why is it that the name of the head of the NSIS Michael Gichangi (pictured) keeps on coming up all the time as we head to the polls? What is the role of the NSIS in the looming general elections? It seems that it is much more than the gathering of information. Clearly it seems that the NSIS has a new mandate to influence things and take them in a certain direction. This mandate is NOT constitutional.

This is like going to watch a play where the actors abandon the script and you suddenly find that a minor part player has taken over as the lead actor in circumstances that cannot be quite explained.

Sample the following; The chief justice of the banana republic of Kenya is stopped at the airport and barred from leaving the country? Why? Because he has not received official clearance to travel out of the country. Now a clarification is in order here. The chief justice is not a clerk in some government office. This man heads an arm of government that is equal to the executive and the legislature. In other words he is on the same level as the president of the said banana republic in many respects. If the president needs clearance to leave the country then the CJ also needs clearance.

Before the dust in that drama settles the CJ receives a call on his cell. By this time he has arrived in neighboring Tanzania. Not from the PS in the office of the president BUT from the head of the NSIS Major General Michael Gichangi. And that is not all. Gichangi apologizes for the “small hiccup.” Any fool can see it is not small and rather than a hiccup is best described as a major earth tremor. Maybe the former Kenya airforce fighter jet pilot has seen so much combat that nothing can be major to him anymore. In which case the president being halted at the airport by some junior immigration official taking orders from the NSIS would be a very minor hiccup.

Barring the CJ from traveling to neighboring Tanzania is above everything else an insult. Tanzania is not Europe or the United States. You could cross to the United Republic on an old Black Mamba bicycle any time you want. It seems the message here was to tell the CJ not to forget who is really in charge. At least that is how I would interpret it myself.

When you read between the lines you will quickly realize that the call from Gichangi must have been part of a well choreographed script whose intentions can only be clear to those who understand what is really going on behind the scenes as we head towards the general elections in a matter of days.

I ask again why should the head of the NSIS call the CJ? For what??? Regular readers of my raw notes will of course not be surprised by these latest developments.

So now we know that the NSIS are major actors in this drama called general elections 2013. Which means that you should also know what to expect then don’t you?

P.S. I am sick of these “scientific” presidential opinion polls littering the media and taking up valuable airtime on prime time TV news. I feel like throwing up listening to all the so-called experts “analyzing” and explaining why Uhuru has so dramatically and suddenly overtaken Raila in the polls and is still traveling at very high speed. It is all rubbish and taking Kenyans for a ride. Kenyans are probably the most gullible people on earth where the face of a white man appears and the word “scientific” is used. Everybody pretends to look intelligent and anybody who disputes those “scientific” findings is a fool. Really??? The truth is that zombies do not mutate, at least not the CORD and Jubilee ones that I know so well. The Jubilee zombies have remained the same in number and so have the CORD ones. The margin of error is those who have passed on, on both sides of the divide mostly from an overdose of Changaa or bhang purchased with the new found wealth that a political campaign brings.

Let’s cut the cr** and reveal the naked truth here. These pollsters are simply adjusting their figures to reflect the reality I have been pointing out in this blog for weeks now. That is the tribal arithmetic which favors Jubilee but it is not enough for an outright win in the first round. Gentlemen, we are headed for a run off. Unless… well that info cannot be published here. Sorry.

Axis of evil rises against chief justice

FROM YASH PAL GHAI:

Wed, Feb 20, 2013
I have learnt, like those who came before me, that when bad governance and autocratic leadership becomes the norm, then resistance becomes an unavoidable duty! I have, this forenoon, read the statement by the Chief Justice with shock and disbelief that the axis of evil is rising up like the violent tide.

Yes, I know that we must not seek out shadows in the future, in the guided understanding that oftentimes the sun of tomorrow will dispatch them. But such sun must be our vigilance and unveiled willingness to stand up not only for what is right, but for what is just. It is evident to me that the executive arm of government is no more propelled by the wings of sufficient goodwill, and that the skewed manner in which the affairs of the nation are being handled incessantly suffers disgrace to the fabric of our national being. In other circumstances what we witness today would mistakenly pass for hyperbole.

The attack and malicious attempt on the life and office of the Chief Justice is a dark ribbon of disgrace on the arm of liberty. The civil society and all we Kenyans of sound judgment and good will must therefore rise up and address the nation and secure the indispensable future and freedom of all Kenyans. The whole earth, I have learnt from Pericles, is the tomb of heroic men and their story is not given only on stone over their clay but abides everywhere without visible symbol woven into the stuff of other men’s lives. Let us stand up for the glory of good governance and liberty.

Sincerely,

Javas
Yash Ghai.

Harun Mwau hit by Mutula Kilonzo popularity

CORD and Jubilee zombies prepare to flex muscles

Very worrying information

This information published in The Star on Saturday is very worrying indeed;

"Is there an attempt to force Safaricom to drop a deal with IEBC to transmit results on election day? Safaricom is providing some of the critical infrastructure IEBC will use to relay results from polling stations countrywide and is rumoured to be under pressure to drop the deal. One of those involved in the plan is a relative of a senior Central Kenya politician, who is known to be a technology wizard and is alleged to work for the National Intelligence Service. The man has previously been involved in tracing some of the ICC witnesses and is said to have access to some of the IEBC data."

How zombies will invade polling stations in Kenya on March 4th

Harun Mwau hit by Mutula Kilonzo popularity as scientific pollsters make adjustments

Harun Mwau Hit By Mutula Kilonzo Popularity...

…As scientific pollsters make adjustments
The presidential race is way too boring for me with all the Cord and Jubilee zombies waiting to do the predictable whilst totally deaf and blind to any new developments and without any brains to think and analyze anything new or old.

And so increasingly my attention is being drawn to the other interesting political battles shaping up all over the country. One such battle that is bound to go right up to the wire is the race for senator of the vast under-developed Makueni county. The main battle is between education minister Mutula Kilonzo and immediate former Kilome legislator John Harun Mwau.

My man on the ground reports a fascinating incident at Sultan Hamud just this afternoon. Harun Mwau arrived in a helicopter at the small town at about 2pm today only to receive a rude shock from the crowd who boldly told him that they were not interested in his money and would vote for Mutula Kilonzo instead. Sultan is right at the heart of Kilome constituency which Mwau has represented for the last 5 years and which should actually be one of his main strongholds as we head to the polls. One man at the meeting today grabbed the microphone and told the crowd that they needed to vote for somebody who was educated this time round and Mutula had a degree from the University of Dar-es-salaam. Mwau’s educational background is sketchy and unclear.

People in the crowd were heard saying that they had had enough of Mwau and his money. My source says that he is still recovering from the shock because this is an area that is poverty stricken and the electorate have always heavily relied on Harun Mwau’s generous handouts where individuals get as much as Kenya shillings 1,000 per person for proving that they are registered voters and intend to vote for him.

This is one very interesting battle that I will be following for you right up to the announcement of the election results. My prediction is that unless something major happens Mutula Kilonzo will win this one.

P.S.  What has changed since two short weeks ago? Actually absolutely nothing. We still have the same mindless Zombies waiting to do what they decided they will do months ago and nothing will change them. Strangely, the weekly polls commissioned by Citizen TV now show that the gap has narrowed considerably between CORD and Jubilee and now the two are neck to neck with one pollster declaring a tie. Why? What has caused such a significant shift?

The obvious answer is that somebody somewhere has made adjustments to the methodology and approach of their polls in response to what critics (including this blogger) have been saying to come up with the kind of results that we are now seeing. In other words nothing has changed on the ground but major adjustments have been made by our scientific pollsters. They still do not reflect the reality as far as I am concerned and my ear to the ground and the tribal numbers still show that Jubilee and their zombies will win the first round easily. As I write this I am just waiting to hear the reasons the pollsters will give for the dramatic change. What a country what a gullible people!!!

Zombies prepare to invade polling stations, but Dida has no zombie followers

Zombies in Kenya ready for the elections; Mohamed Dida refreshing non-zombie

What are zombies? According to Bwana Google it is; A soulless corpse said to be revived by witchcraft…

Well, Kenya is preparing for March 4th 2013 when millions of Zombies will invade polling stations to cast their votes. They will vote according to the chants you hear coming out of their smelly dead mouths.

Let me explain.

I have tried. I have really tried to have issue-based discussions with some of the most brilliant minds in Kenya on social media and even in social places all over the country. It has proved to be a futile mission. All I have met are Zombies programmed by either CORD or Jubilee. Their idea of a balanced debate on issues is a discussion that paints their candidate in good light and nothing else. Anything negative gets a predictable reaction from them. They huff and puff and start to get very annoyed and if you are not careful you will get a missile (like a bottle with the contents of EABL products still inside) hurled in your direction.

It seems that so many people have been bitten and turned into Zombies. I have met very few Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua or Mohamed Dida supporters but they have been joy to speak to. These folks you can have an intelligent discussion with. These people are non-tribal and love their country with a passion. I wish there was much more of them.

March 4th is going to be pretty predictable. CORD zombies in CORD zones and Jubilee zombies in Jubilee zones will troop obediently and in a trance to polling stations all over the country to vote for the side that bit them and turned them into Zombies.

Why waste time and money on presidential debates when Zombies cannot take in the contents of a debate? Why waste time releasing manifestos? Zombies don’t and can’t read, let alone comprehend and analyze the policies.

Why bother with opinion polls in a country of Zombies where all the people do is chant who they are supporting. Votes cast in stone that will not be changed by an earthquake.

That is why political rookie Mohamed Dida made such a huge impact on those of us who are still non-zombies. What impression do you expect a non-zombie to make amongst zombies? Right from the moment he first opened his mouth when he was presenting his papers to the IEBC the former Lenana school teacher has struck a chord in my heart. His speeches and remarks have inspired me as I am sure they have inspired so many Kenyans. Chances are that this is the man I will vote for on March 4th and don’t even think of telling me that cr** about losing my vote or wasting it. What does that mean in democracy? Don’t give me zombie talk, I am no zombie. I am still thinking and will continue to do so even as I vote.

Lively chat on social media as Dida steals the show

Deep inside the Jubilee and CORD campaigns

High drama: Uhuru may be disqualified

What would you do if I told you something was not possible and then a few months down the road you asked me for a public clarification?

That is the situation that the Obama administration finds itself in now as the Kenyan government seeks clarification on its’ position concerning the candidature if two ICC suspects in the race for the Kenyan presidency and vice presidency.

“But Obama said…??”

Well it is very simple. President Obama’s video message was targeted at the electorate whilst Johnny Carson’s message was a reminder to the government of Kenya. Obama is a politician, remember? Were you expecting him to say in his message of goodwill to Kenyans that Uhuru is not suitable? That would be taking sides. It would suggest that America is dictating your choice by disqualifying one of your most popular candidates.

Kenyans are a very intelligent lot and the big mystery here is why it has taken so long to sink into our brains that a Uhuru candidature for the presidency is dicey at best.

Let’s go for “kamwana” (what enthusiastic voters are calling Uhuru all over Central province and beyond. It means the young man) but on condition that we can forget about cordial normal relations with America, UK and a host of other European countries. Kenyans may be barred from seeking further education in those countries, investors will shun us, companies may eve close down because of the economic impact of a Uhuru presidency.

It is worth noting that all this mess is courtesy of one William Ruto who thought that he would outsmart the entire Western world, after all Kenya is a sovereign state band in the middle of an island where we are self sustaining. Let’s see what colour rabbit he will pull out of his magic hat next, because he will definitely do something.

Already the Kenya shilling is sliding and looks set for an unprecedented free fall. But can emotionally charged Kenyans see the writing on the wall? Or are they waiting to be laid off enmasse for them to understand a very simple issue?

How will Uhuru supporters react to their man being disqualified?
What triggered the current chain of events...
Visit and "like" this Kumekucha page for real time updates on the 2013 presidential elections. 
Get a FREE summary of my highly classified raw notes that predicted this drama

Is Mutahi Ngunyi right about a Jubilee win?

Mutahi Ngunyi   

Regular readers of Kumekucha will have already read the gist of what Ngunyi said yesterday in this blog weeks ago. However I do not entirely agree with everything that he has said.

The mostly-right political analyst claims that Jubilee are short of 900 thousand and something votes to win the presidential elections in the first round and eliminate the need for a run off. Obviously he did not think through this part of his statement. Ngunyi is using figures of registered voters by tribe and assuming a 100 percent turn out and the relevant tribes voting for Uhuru and Ruto to a man. That is of course a fallacy.

Jubilee will win comfortably but we are headed for a run off because other candidates will get substantial votes in their so-called strong holds. Not enough to change the results. But enough to ensure that a 50+1 win in the first round remains unattainable.

CORD supporters are livid about any suggestion that the “scientific” polls may be wrong. One angry commentator wondered why my parents wasted money taking me to school only for me to reject science. Sadly this tells you a lot about many young voters in Kenya today and our educational system which seems to discourage youngsters from thinking on their own (it is like the brain feels pain when you have to use it to think on your own). Others find it impossible to think without emotion during an election such as this one. Technology has of course made things worse with tools like Google search which almost makes it unnecessary to have a brain. Science is NOT perfect and people make mistakes in their methodology. Indeed to embrace science you must start with common sense and known facts and figures from the past. And you must constantly check your scientific results against the same. In my honest view a Jubilee win is not good for Kenya because of so many obvious reasons but I will never allow my feelings to blind me from facing reality. Or worse still to stop me from thinking.

There is one more very dangerous thing that the figures of registered voters by region and past voting patterns are saying. It is clear that CORD will have a very hard time coming in second. Although the other candidates will eat into the votes of both CORD and Jubilee, CORD will be the worst hit. It is true that there is a growing number of Kenyan voters who will NOT vote tribally like the majority supporting CORD and Jubilee the one who will be most affected by this will be CORD. Just accept to feel pain in the brain for a minute and think. What do you think caused the extra-ordinarily high voter registration in certain Jubilee strongholds? It is because a vast majority of those voters were registering with a very clear motive in mind; to get their man into State house at all costs. Those votes are already in the bank for Jubilee, as Ngunyi puts it. The same however cannot be said for CORD, not even in Nyanza.

I am here to give you the facts and I hope most of you will appreciate that. Later I will tell you who I will vote for… much later. Until then please do not brand me as a supporter of any candidate just because what I have written is good news for a particular camp. Let’s grow up shall we…

Visit and "like" this Kumekucha page for real time updates on the 2013 presidential elections.

Obama To Kenya:Vote In Dreams Of My Father

With the clock furiously counting down to the 2013 PORK presidential elections, POTUS has thrown his HEART into the ring by exploiting his forte of using modern technology ambitiously, 

Using STATE RESOURCES as evidenced by this recorded message from the halls of the White House, Obama attempts to steer the Kenyan electorate in the right direction to push agenda into campaign discussions (see video)

Make no mistake by all indications in the video message POTUS knows all too well that Kenyans are acutely aware of the challenges surrounding their upcoming vote for the fourth PORK  

However BHO's ambitious strategy via audio visual message is to drive the Kenyan electorate to propel a worthy politician to high office in a country notoriously famed for comprehensively allowing bad to triumph over good every 5 years at the ballot box. His message is clear :-Vote for the dreams (not FRUSTRATORS) of my father NA BADO

2013 Presidential race: When former president Moi gets involved...

When former president Moi gets very actively involved in something like the 2013 presidential elections there is reason to sit up and pay attention. And when the candidate that the former president is supporting is a State house project there is even more reason for concern.

I can report that the former president is very closely involved in the Amani coalition campaign that is fronting deputy prime minister Musalia Mudavadi for president.

I have nothing against the son of the late Sabstone Mudamba Mudavadi or Ma-DVD as the young people fondly call him. In my view he is the lesser evil in a field of extremely evil and selfish presidential candidates.

But the older Moi’s deep and enthusiastic involvement in his campaign is something that Kenyans need to pay very close attention to.

Those who know the old man well will tell you that he never forgets a favour. That is how he managed to rule Kenya for 24 years the last 14 being extremely trying with virtually every western power pumping some serious money into the country to bring his rule to an abrupt end. They and their sacks of cash failed miserably

Many years ago when Moi had not even entered politics Mwalimu Mudamba being a senior official in the ministry of education promoted Moi from a P3 teacher to a P2 teacher. Years later when Moi took over as president Mudamba quickly ended up in his cabinet and was the most “untouchable” member of the inner cabinet. Unlike the other members of cabinet who were subject to a one o’clock news bulletin shocker old man Mudamba was so close to the president that he was exempt. For the information of younger readers of this blog President Moi would make frequent cabinet re-shuffles, firing and hiring during the one o’clock news bulletin. So much so that many ambitious Kenyans would listen to the KBC 1:00 PM news knowing that their lives would easily be transformed by a single bulletin. And indeed many lives were. The late professor George Saitoti was a struggling unknown mathematics lecturer at the University of Nairobi when his name was mentioned in one such bulletin and the rest is history.

Moi is indeed a good friend to have because when Mudamba suddenly passed on, his son who had only recently graduated from the University of Nairobi with a land Economics degree found himself in the cabinet in a flash. The name of that son was Musalia and he never had to warm the back benches first. He went straight into cabinet.

Kenyans who believe that Moi is going to get involved Ma-DVD’s campaign to lose are naïve. There is one very important thing that virtually all political analysts in the country have missed. And that is the fact that the rules of the presidential elections game have changed dramatically. Everybody is behaving like either CORD or Jubilee will win the first round and end up in State house. All Ma-DVD needs to do is to ensure that he comes in second on March 4th. Politically any contest between Mudavadi and Uhuru or between Mudavadi and Raila will hand over victory to the son of Mudamba. That is a certainty.

Perhaps you are reading this and dismissing it as some Kumekucha pipe dream. I have no problem with that because in my long blogging experience I have had many of my posts written off as ranting at best and pure insanity at worst only for things to play out in a manner that is fairly similar to the “madness” suggested.

The campaigns proper have just began… watch Ma-DVD very closely folks. Very closely.

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Breaking News; It is now official, discussing land issues and historical injustices in this campaign will get you prosecuted.

Inside the TNA And Cord Campaign Strategies: The Gloves Come Off

Kumekucha Exclusive
 
Politics is dirty and calling it a game is an understatement. Many young Kenyan voters are new to it and I see them naive and excited in social media focusing all their attention on the surface and on the wrong things. This is sad because they are the most important swing vote in this election.
Anyway the big question here is what is going on inside the TNA and CORD campaigns? What kind of strategic thinking is going on?

The CORD campaigns are informed by the controversial opinion polls which put them ahead. But the old experienced hands behind that campaign are not missing a trick. Sample the following;

Moses Wetangula was carefully chosen to be the one to take a swipe at Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the large tracts of land that were grabbed by his father and the foundation of his immense wealth. The right response would have been to completely ignore that statement. Instead the eager youngsters at TNA took the bait hook line and sinker and where many Kenyan were not even aware of what Wetangula had said they helped broadcast it far and wide by lodging a complaint with IEBC claiming that the statement was bound to incite people to violence amongst other things. That complaint received much more coverage than the original statement madeat a campaign rally. Game shot. In the last few days CORD has followed up with even Raila Odinga himself calling for the Kenyatta land to be returned and some of it donated to IDPs.

Naturally the impact of all this was completely lost to most people living in the comfort of Nairobi. The truth is that land is a very emotive issue in Kenya and the kind of thing that could easily influence millions of votes in rural Kenya, especially in areas where there is a huge shortage of land and Kenyans are feeling boxed in. Admittedly this may not have much effect in Central province where the problem is acute but it will certainly have the desired impact in many other parts of the country including the Coast.

The TNA strategy is informed by the following figures of registered voters;

Central province Kikuyus; 2,190,477
Meru/Embu;  866,329
Kikuyu in Rift Valley; 1,166,146
Kalenjin: 1,523,325
Nairobi; 1,778,903

It is no secret that a vast majority of the Kikuyu vote is solidly behind Uhuru. My information on the ground is that at least 40% of the Kalenjin vote at the moment is behind the Jubilee alliance. In Nairobi popular candidates like Ferdinand Waititu and Mike Sonko whose followers will do as they are told means that the son of Jomo has at least 60% of the city vote already in his pocket. You do not need to be a statistician to realize that Uhuru would win without breaking into a sweat if elections were held today, the scientific opinion polls not withstanding.

CORD supporters may spend the whole day on social media making it look like CORD has popular support in Nairobi and people may release highly scientific opinion polls (that defy common sense, according to Dr Mukhisa Kituyi) but that does not change the facts. People like you and this blogger who believe they are very well informed and wise could sit down and try and analyze voting patterns like we were in the United States, but that would still not change the figures which I have put before you today in black and white.

According to TNA and according to this blogger TNA are ahead in the polls. And if elections were held today they would win. What CORD need to really get worried about is why somebody would be so keen and enthusiastic to convince them that they are ahead.

However that was just a by the way because this post is about strategy and NOT faulty opinion polls.

If you have been observant enough you will have noticed that Uhuru has started injected Kikuyu statements into his campaign speeches. This is deliberate and he is simply locking in his votes and reminding the house of Mumbi not to forget that one of their own is in need.

In the coming days we should expect more vicious attacks from the two main political coalitions. CORD will continue to talk a lot about land and political dynasties. They will also focus on those who were in the no campaign at the time of referendum for the new constitution and they will want to discuss with wananchi the reason why those prominent individuals like William Ruto (now in TNA) were so strongly opposed to the new constitution.

TNA will do all that needs to be done to ensure a high voter turn out in Central province and Rift Valley and the Kikuyu comments in speeches should continue when Uhuru is before his supporters. Everything else you will see Jubilee do will be a smoke screen.

Third force
Unknown to most Kenyans apart from the big two coalition parties that are favourites to win there is a third force in these elections influencing things enormously. My money is on this third force being the final say on who the next president of Kenya will be. That force is State house and all the state resources that are controlling more things in these elections than most Kenyans will ever believe. Their preferred candidate and the sensational things that are about to happen in the coming months is pretty sensitive and it is something that I cannot discuss in an open forum such as this one. However subscribers to my raw notes have already been receiving some of this information and will be receiving more sizzlers in the days and weeks to come. You can subscribe to my free raw notes updates so that you at least have an idea of what is being discussed.

Will Sakaja's inexperience cost Uhuru the election?

Mzungus have never been corrupt, that’s why Synovate poll is 1000% true

Social media is a wonderful tool. For the first time in history anybody can literally read the mind of the public. In earlier centuries some people could only accurately guess public opinion but they profited enormously from their guesses, one wonders what those clever chaps would have done with the info freely accessible on social media today.

But spend a little time on social media and you will realize that our so-called elite and cream of society do not have any thoughts of their own. It is amazing how people repeat exactly what they have heard in the media like the obedient parrot. And folks that media iko na wenyewe and they have their very clear agenda. Or is the problem our educational system in recent years that encourages cramming and memorizing what is written in the text books so that you can reproduce it word for word in the exam room. There is never any time for students to delve into free thought, experimentation and discovery and the result of that seems to be coming out very clearly.

It is also crystal clear that most people don’t understand politics at all. They believe that American politics is “safi kama pamba” and Kenyan politics should be the same. I wish somebody could make a Nigerian movie (the only way a vast majority on social media learn anything about this life) that focuses on the global nature of politics. But meanwhile I would recommend a popular TV series called Boss which is captivating tale in the backdrop of big city politics in the US. Trust me it is anything BUT boring. Incidentally to most folks on social media that is the most dreaded six letter word (boring). Many young people fear it more than they fear Aids.

The other big problem Kenyans seem to have is this total trust for mzungus. I read between the lines of many comments and this clearly comes out. But I met this guy the other day who spelt it out for me and left no doubt. He reckons that just because the Synovate opinion poll is done by a mzungu it is 100 per cent accurate. He added that it is impossible to corrupt a mzungu because they have principles. This guy is a university graduate no less, albeit in the sciences. I kid you not. I pointed out to him that his perception of white people is dangerous and told him the story of this guy from Europe who went to Uganda a few years ago and started collecting cash all over the place from people who believed they were investing in a brand new airline that was set to be launched in East Africa. The poor Ugandans were falling over themselves to give that mzungu conman cash. They were sure he was not a conman because he was a mzungu. I will talk a little more about opinion polls in Kenya and their dark history in a future post very soon. But you can begin to understand why Kenyans have such short memories and nobody remembers the Synovate fiasco of 2007.

There is another friend who has suggested that the main problem online is the fact that all the major political players have too many of “their people” on social media and their mission is to make their candidate look good all the time.

Whatever the problem is, clear headed debate and political discussions are impossible. Many are even quick to accuse you of incitement when you start asking some hard questions or analyzing what should be obvious to a primary school kid.

Oh shucks what’s the point. Maybe I should just get used to supporting TNA because it has a lot of young guys with swag. Swag will probably create employment and solve our other pressing problems over the next 5 years. Or support Raila because he has suffered a lot for this country, never mind the fact that many others have suffered more like Kenneth Matiba who has had his health damaged permanently in his crusade for a better Kenya.

Or even better, lets vote for Peter Kenneth because he is the most handsome man to ever stand for president of Kenya.

Those Kenyans who have been calling for issue-based campaigns must be mad. To discuss what issues with whom? That’s rocket science in Kenya with the kind of “swag-related issues” being discussed by the elite of Kenya.

Oh boy!!!!


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Low-lifes want to mess up our country 

Will Sakaja's inexperience cost TNA the presidency? 

The Kikuyu question 

3 Big horses for Nairobi Senator

3 BIG horses for Nairobi Senator

Battle for Nairobi Senator

From left to right; Maina Njenga, Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and Mike Sonko

If you thought that the battle for Nairobi senator would be a 2 horse race, then think again. Controversial former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga has been cleared to contest the seat by the Mkenya Solidarity Movement party.

His remarks on being cleared are even more interesting; “The party chose on me because I have a plan to transform the city and improve the lives of the people of Nairobi,”  Njenga told the press.

If some Nairobians have been throwing up because of the front runner for Nairobi governor, one Ferdinand “rusha mawe” Waititu, then one wonders what they will do when they realize who two of the front runners for Nairobi senator are.

Although I have said that I am with the low-lifes in my political views and thinking, I can imagine a high powered delegation seeking a twin city deal with Nairobi, say from London sitting down with a meeting with governor Waititu and senator Sonko. You can imagine the quality of that conversation. But alas that is for the majority of voters to decide. Since you Nairobians have promoted policies that have encouraged slums over the last 30 years or so, it is time to pay your dues, is it not?

The local media seems to have a policy of giving Njenga a blackout as much as possible and for good reason. People still fear Njenga because to them he still represents the dreaded Mungiki whose signature has always been decapitation.

Like him or hate him, there is no doubt that Njenga will start out as joint favourite with Sonko to be the first senator of the city. The truth is that Njenga still draws huge crowds and will have no problem collecting hundreds of thousands of votes before he even opens his mouth to say a single word.

Nairobi has 1,778,903 verified voters and this is one race that will be impossible to call. Actually it could go to any of the 3 candidates.

Nairobi has a huge number of Mungiki sympathizers who will vote Njenga and in this way he could pip both Sonko and Wanjiru. It is also possible for Sonko to win by a small margin because he too has massive support in the city. A third scenarios is also possible. And that is Sonko and Njenga could split the votes and Wanjiru could then end up winning by a small margin.

At this rate the race for president will be pretty boring in comparison to the battle of Titans that will be going on in Nairobi seeking the governor’s and senatorial seat respectively.

It is now abundantly clear why ODM has been so eager to avoid fielding a Luo candidate for the senatorial seat namely Elizabeth Ongoro who incidentally has booked her place in history books by being the first minister in Kenya to give birth while in office, which happened in November 2011 when she was assistant minister for Nairobi Metropolitan Development (see picture at the bottom of this post). What ODM has been doing switching around people and claiming that they are settling disputes is very wrong. Why hold nominations and collect hefty fees from candidates when you know you are going to give somebody a direct nomination? Incidentally when they give direct nominations they should refund all monies spent including campaign cash to all aspirants. That is only fair isn’t it? Anyway I digress.

Ongoro’s candidature would have caused the race for senator to degenerate into a tribal issue. I am not sure what Mrs Ongoro was thinking putting herself up for the seat but clearly she would have lost both the seat and plenty of dignity. Nairobi politics like the politics of any big city is ruthless and certainly not for the feint-hearted.

So which of the 3 candidates will win Nairobi senator? Your guess is as good as mine although I would put my money on Mike Sonko.

 

Immediate former Kasarani MP Elizabeth Ongoro at Nairobi hospital on 15th November 2011 shortly after she gave birth to a boy. The legislator worked until the last day without taking any maternity leave from politics. 

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The Kikuyu question

The problem with blogging in Kenya today is that nobody will allow you to be horseless. So go ahead and brand me but the truth is that I do NOT support any of the two major coalitions. What tribe am I ? Honestly I have no tribe (the truth). My mum was Luhya, my dad was Kamba and I was born in Kisumu, my first born has Kikuyu blood flowing through her veins and can even speak the language fluently.

My personal political view on the presidency is that both Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta are NOT good for Kenya.

I don’t like Mary Wambui because I have a lot of privileged information on what she has been up to in the 10 years that her husband has been in power. BUT I will NOT support anybody who plays around with the will of the people and denies her, her nomination certificate to contest the general elections. We MUST respect the will of the people and I don’t care who you are, the rule applies.

Clearly we have a major problem in our hands as we go into the general elections in a few weeks. The people who suffered the most in the troubles of 2008 were our Kikuyu brothers and sisters indeed as you read this tens of thousands of them are still in camps, refugees in their own country. What can be sadder than that?

Still any criticism you level against Uhuru Kenyatta today is seen as an attack on the Kikuyu community. Why??? When Jomo Kenyatta grabbed large tracts of land what was written on the title deeds? The Kikuyu community?? Nope. The name on the them is Kenyatta. Why then is it seen as an attack on the Kikuyu when we talk about the evil Kenyatta committed when he was in office?

We often talk about Moi’s 24 year misrule. I don’t see my Kalenjin friends coming out red with rage and telling me that I am attacking the Kalenjin community? Why then is it different with the Kikuyu?

The answer is simple. President Kibaki’s presidential campaign in 2007 is the kind of campaign that must never be allowed in our shores ever again. And it seems that we are yet to shake off its’ effects. Public meetings addressed in Kiswahili but campaign managers going round later and speaking to the people in vernacular and telling them that it is a war against the other community. By the time we went into the elections it was a Kikuyu versus the rest of Kenya election. Why???? Why when the Kikuyu have suffered more than any other  community during Kibaki’s tenure? Why when we love our Kikuyu brothers and sisters and live peacefully on the ground with them and even marrying their beautiful lasses without any hassle? Why does it have to be different in politics?

In 1957 a Luo man called Tom Mboya beat a Kikuyu opponent called Munyua Waiyaki for the Nairobi area seat in the Legco. 95% of the voters were Kikuyus. Those days most locals were illiterate or with very poor educational backgrounds if any. Why then should we have a problem in 2013 when we have very educated Kenyans? Have we grown more stupid and tribal with more education?

We urgently need to find a way to ensure that any criticism against Uhuru Kenyatta is NOT seen as an attack on the Kikuyu community. He is an individual seeking high office and we need to interrogate him, we are not interrogating the community he happens to belong to.

Read the other Chris Kumekucha post today; 
Will Sakaja’s inexperience cost TNA the presidency?

Will Sakaja’s inexperience cost TNA the presidency?

Johnson Sakaja the chairman of TNA just recently celebrated his 28th birthday. Admittedly his experience in student politics at the University of Nairobi is useful in his new role as chairman of a popular national political party because SONU politics can sometimes get pretty rough and dirty.

His profile also says that he played a key role in the “re-election” of Mwai Kibaki in 2007 (ouch!!!!). I am still reviewing video footage of those who attended the bedroom swearing in at State house in 2008 (invited before the election results were announced) but I think I have a great chance of spotting Sakaja.

I have no problem with youth. Indeed I have said many times here that this country would be better off with a president who was under 40 years of age. I still hold strongly to those views.

Still there is no substitute to experience and this was proved yesterday when Sakaja made a very major blunder. So major is this blunder that it could easily turn the direction of this presidential election and lose Uhuru an election that he was going to win by a landslide.

Before I tell you what that blunder is, let me tell you a story. I was recently on the bus from Mombasa to Nairobi and struck up a conversation with this young pretty lass (why can’t this young women leave me alone?) From her slight accent and striking beauty I knew that she was Wiper Democratic Movement property but when I asked her who she was going to vote president, her answer shocked me.

“Uhuru,” she said without hesitation.

My point is that Uhuru Kenyatta has managed to attract a lot of votes from numerous young Kenyans who find it easier to identify themselves with a younger person. These young Kenyans know very little about the history of their country and have no time to delve into the details of boring ancient history. After all any titbit they want to know Bwana Google will tell them.

Now the big blunder Sakaja made was to complain about Wetangula’s recent remarks about a presidential candidate who was using wealth gained from grabbed land for his campaigns and also to bribe voters.

In recent times both CORD and Jubillee presidential candidates have been taking a swipe at each other and some of those swipes have been pretty personal. Many Kenyan voters have missed them, even those in Nairobi because incase you did not know we are all suffering from what somebody called “information overflow”. That is there is so much information flying at us from all directions that we ignore most of it and only pay attention to what we think is the most important.

Gullible Sakaja took Wetangula’s bait and in one master stroke has brought to national attention his presidential candidate’s soft under belly. The right strategy would have been to ignore the remark but if he felt that he must attract attention to himself and the party in some way he should have issued a statement that takes away attention from why Uhuru Kenyatta is so wealthy. Perhaps something about the TNA party being a party of youths where all folks who are over 50 are in the council of elders of the party.

As it is Sakaja’s complaint has attracted a lot of media attention and Kenyans are discussing it all over the place. And the younger Kenyans are asking if it is true. I laugh when I hear young people ask whether there is evidence. It would take any lawyer about 15 seconds flat to prove that Jomo Kenyatta was indeed a serious land grabber. Nobody did more than him to set the stage for the post election troubles of 2008. But I digress.

Many Kenyans lost their lives as a direct result of the grand old man’s appetite for land. It is instructive that the very first major political assassination in Kenya which took place when Kenya as a nation was barely a 2 year old toddler, was linked to Jomo Kenyatta’s land grabbing. I am of course talking about the ugly shooting of Pio Gama Pinto right in front of his 6 year old daughter. (Get all the details from my book Political assassinations in Kenya available for FREE to regular Kumekucha readers only). The bottom line is that this is still an extremely sensitive issue that could cost Uhuru millions of votes.

Why did Wetangula bring it up? Was he perhaps jealous and a little frightened about the kind of money the Jubilee coalition is spending? Difficult to tell, but Sakaja messed up big time and I am not sure if the Uhuru campaign is going to be able to recover from this one. Let’s wait and see shall we?

P.S. - The Jubilee Coalition will spend an estimated Sh10 billion in campaigns. Last week, Uhuru's TNA acquired 10 branded four-wheel-drive vehicles at an estimated cost of Sh30 million. The vehicles painted red with Uhuru's name on the side are to be used to transport TNA staff during rallies and roadshows. Late last year, Uhuru's running mate William Ruto of URP acquired five four-wheel-drive vehicles and bought a chopper. The two Jubilee leaders now have four choppers at their disposal — two of which they own and the other two hired by the Uhuru campaign on an as needed basis.


More about Sakaja
Sakaja Johnson, the National Chairman of TNA is currently the Principal Partner at Arthur Johnson Consultants which offers financial and strategic advisory services to Governmental and Private business entities in Kenya. He began his foray into national politics through student politics at the University of Nairobi (NASA – as vice chair of the Actuarial Students Association and later in SONU). Sakaja Johnson studied Actuarial Science and is currently pursuing Political Economics where he found his interests lie. He has been involved in National Politics since the 2005 referendum and played a key role in the 2007 re-election of H.E. Mwai Kibaki. Sakaja was also instrumental in the constitution making process being a key consultant to the COE and Parliamentary Select Committee on the Constitution on the issue of Representation and helped formulate the formula for delimitation of electoral boundaries in Kenya. He has also co-authored a book together with the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ – Kenya Chapter) on Representation and Fiscal Decentralisation having particularly written the chapters on the Technical Framework for Devolution. Sakaja is also an avid musician and plays bass guitar for a local music band.

Sakaja hails from Western province.

TNA  is run by young people between 30 and 35; the chairman, Mr Johnson Sakaja, is under 30. Those above the age of 50 will be accommodated in the parties Council of Elders, which is an organ of the party.

Mary Wambui: Dirty family politics

Mary Wambui wa Munene: Fuming at the TNA offices yesterday when she discovered that no nomination certificate was forthcoming. 

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Sayings of the wise before you elect your leaders;“The wealthier a person is the more likely it is that they hate the human community.”


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Yesterday it was revealed that the President’s second wife Mary Wambui had been denied the TNA nomination certificate because an appeal lodged by her closest rival was being looked into, according to a statement from TNA headquarters. The appeal claimed that Wambui had bribed voters through her driver and even forged a letter of resignation from TNA purportedly written by her rival Gichuki Mugambi.

To those who know Wambui’s saga well it was amusing to realize that she is now using the name Munene which actually started as nickname early in the Kibaki presidency when people started calling her Wambui wa Munene. (Meaning Wambui who belongs to the big boss).

Wambui is probably the most feared woman in Kenya today despite her appearing pretty meek on TV and even invoking the name of God and saying that she was going to pray about the whole issue. She met the press flanked by her infamous daughter Wangui who is reported to have gotten married to one of the infamous Artur brothers.

Interestingly Wambui continues to enjoy state security although the president has publicly denied that he has any relationship with her.

Clearly the first family is behind Wambui’s current woes to be the heir of President Kibaki’s parliamentary seat.

Impeccable sources had informed this blogger earlier that the initial plan was for Wambui to go for a senatorial seat while Jimmy Kibaki (the president’s son by his first wife) would go for his father’s parliamentary seat. Those close to the first family were relieved because it appeared that an embarrassing political mud fight between the two wives and their children had been averted. However Wambui’s plan hit a snag when talk started about a Senatorial candidate being required to hold a university degree. She opted to play it safe and go for the parliamentary seat instead. Wambui did not go past class 7 and was brought up in an extremely poverty stricken environment.

It is worth noting that Wambui has been the chief campaigner for the president for years and was instrumental in intervening when former president Moi attempted to rig Kibaki out of his Othaya parliamentary seat in the infamous 1988 mlolongo (lining up) general elections. She quickly mobilized supporters who came out ready for trouble (complete with pangas) and frantic phone calls had to be made by the DC (the returning officer in those elections) to Nairobi after which the already announced results which indicated that Kibaki had been defeated were reversed and the future president made it back to parliament.

It is no secret that the president’s other family are behind concerted efforts to ensure that she does not inherit the Othaya seat. Last night frantic phone calls were being made all over the place which reminded me of the saying that when two elephants are fighting it is the grass that bear the brunt of the battle. Tension is still very high in Othaya even as you read this.

In the announced results Wambui beat her bitter rival Gichuki Mugambi by 13,050 votes to 10,080

I will keep you informed on how this amazing saga develops.

Mary Wambui to sue TNA over nomination

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Breaking News:
Mary Wambui has finally received her nomination certificate this evening and is now officially the TNA candidate for the Othaya parliamentary seat that has been Mwai Kibaki's for close to 40 years.  Read Daily Nation story.

Interestingly Wambui has always shunned the media but this time she freely gave interviews about her predicament and it seems the publicity over the issue caused the dark figures fighting against her nomination to give up their fight to frustrate her.

However this does not necessarily mean that the bid to stop her winning the parliamentary seat is over.

Kumbe bado..... 9:36PM Kenyan time 23/1/2013

Ooops latest reports indicate that there is still a hitch with the Othaya TNA ticket. Mary Wambui says it is not over yet despite assurances from the TNA. And sure enough her challenger Gichuki Mugambi has the nomination certificate and says that parties do NOT have the power to revoke it once it has been issued. Wow!!! wonders will never cease.