In all my 20 years of political analysis, even I was not prepared for what is unfolding before our very eyes.
I have just finished carefully analyzing the provisional results streaming in from the IEBC and coming from a cross section of polling stations across the country. They tell a shocking story. Not only will Uhuru win the presidency in the first round but he is set to do it with a resounding victory that should give him close to 60 per cent of the vote (or even more, according to my calculations).
Any serious political pollster will tell you that the polling stations announced so far are similar to a massive and more accurate poll (because of the numbers). Remember that a poll of even 1,500 for a population of 200 million will still give you very accurate results.
Kenyans now need to prepare themselves for the consequences of a Uhuru presidency which will include a cold shoulder from the West and possibly sanctions. However the good news is that the baton of leadership has finally been passed on to a new younger generation of leaders which can only be good news for long suffering Kenyans.
Political analysts will want to carefully study how the son of Jomo did it. The answers will have to start from a man called William Ruto, master strategist and the real brains behind the successful Uhuru campaign. Ruto defied all odds and kept the bid alive against considerable pressure and odds which I will discuss here in the days to come as the results become official and more clearer to Kenyans. If Ruto is allowed to remain the real political brains behind the Uhuru administration then this is going to be one formidable presidency with a fighting chance of being equal to task and the huge challenges that lay ahead, including a looming date with the ICC at the Hague.
The Jubilee campaign seems to have successfully positioned itself as the young new fresh beginning the nation needs against the old and tired CORD leadership of much older candidates for President and Vice President. The result seems to have been a massive following from the young people of Kenya (many of them voting for the first time) who for better or worse have spoken rather emphatically at the ballot. There is no denying that the bid was helped all along by the massive Kikuyu and Mount Kenya voting bloc of zombies.
Wow.
What Kenyans must now do is to try and leave the elections and all the emotions involved with it behind them and rally behind the new administration to find the best way to use this opportunity to speed up true institutional reforms in the country.
I came to exactly the same conclusion sitting in front of my TV a few minutes ago.
ReplyDeleteBe prepared for harsh days.
ReplyDeleteEconomy- down,
justice- nill,
freedom - no speech,
education- expensive- no fpe,
crime- highest,
tribalism- perfected,
jobs- a dream,
hunger, hunger, hunger, diseases, deaths, random detaintions, assassinations.
Dark days are there again.
U call us zombies?
ReplyDeleteWe are determined to show ICC that we are our own bosses. Mtado?
My only fear is how we will manage WSR.
UK will have immunity
.
"In all my 20 years of political analysis, even I was not prepared for what is unfolding before our very eyes."
ReplyDeletexxx
Make sure in the future, you LISTEN carefully to the ABUSIVE African Teacher!
Na wewe Chris, hii maneno ya Western so called sanctions.
Kwani, when Africans were building Pyramids and other stuff, were they getting money from the West which DID NOT EVEN EXIST?
We have informed you this before. Whether sanctions become an issue, is for Kamwana to decide.
As such, should he win, it depends on the kind of counsel he receives. If he consults the IVY LEAGUE of FOOLS advisers, there will be mess.
With that, we leave to enjoy:
UHURU NI WITU
http://is.gd/pMbype
Well is the shocker turns out of be reeal, the who among certain large pockets of the electorate had expected that the general elections would come down to a sudden Kimura armlock?
ReplyDeleteThere are those of us who were anticipating a second round in the now just ended one round general election bout between the two heavyweight presidential contenders.
Nevertheless, one favoured presidential contender may have just skillfully illuminated the brighter side of dealing with the constant international pressures from the ICC, and all kinds of concerted campaign rapid fire from the coalition of his political rivals.
Having been exposed to the depth of the political field of well calculated tyranny of numbers theory that has just been translated into pratice by the potential provisional victor, is both eye-opening and mind-opening to those of us who knew that victory was going to be delivered in round one, as ooposed to those among us who did not see the general election technical defeat coming so sooner than expected.
Fortunately, the hopes of many electorate is that there will not be any of the usual time wasting indulgence of scapegoating the spooky BVR or RVB kits that may have had a critical malfunction given all the billions of shillings and wrangling that went into securing their procurement.
The bottom line is that there are some of us who lost because there are those among us who won given the well calculated year long investments in the economic theory of the tyrannical numbers that has paid dividends on Monday, 4th, 2013.
March, 4th, general elction may have just come down to a timely conclusion, however, the real struggles have just begin in terms of not just a single constructive way forward but many avenues forward, as well as the overdue judicial correction of the wrongs that were committed in the last fifty-to-hundred years.
Congratulations to victors in advance and aluta continua!
Chris,
ReplyDeletepeace prevail,kenya has won,we need a political pillar that will unite all kenyans.why call central pple zombies yet we all followed our tribal leaders?-i voted rao coz am from the lakeside
Chris, you must be genius to pen down an article so quickly in such an emotive time.
ReplyDeleteToo early to call.
ReplyDeleteSore loser!
ReplyDeleteElectiing a criminal is a crime which will be judged cruelly. Kenya new constituion doesnot supprt an office bearer with a case to answer.
ReplyDeleteEvery Kenyan will seriously face it. Already now there is no fuel, no unga in the shops.
Kenyans, be happy, but your happiness will not be for long if you are NOT a millionare.
You make me lose respect for your writings!!! I thought you were a seasoned blogger to know it's too early to call?
ReplyDeleteRaila orhuru, Kenya will continue!
While electing a criminal is considered to be a serious political crime against an emerging democracy like that of Kenya, then why have we already settled for half-a-loaf leadership of two main individuals who should have been hauled to The Hague as early as August of 2008?
ReplyDeleteThe two individuals were the ones who furiously sparring with each other in the boxing ring on Decmeber 2007, but later allowed their unsportmanship conduct to get the best of them, hence caused the fight to spill over to their respective side-corners, and later into the arena where supporters and spectators from both camps were seated and peacefully watching the scheduled twelve round fight before the chaos erupted and hit the fun, consequently spreading several miles beyond the confines of the arena.
Would it have made any real difference to @4:51 AM and their ilk had the two main political characters responsible for the political mess in the first place been hauled to the ICC as early as August of 2008 by a superior intervention military force from Her Majesty, the Americas, or by combined people's defence forces from neughbouring Tanzania and Uganda?
By the way, why not place the blame for the shortage of essential food stuffs, other household items and their sky-rocketing where it belongs?
Directly on be the cruel, crooked and greedy shoulders of commercial traders, commodities hoarders, wide-eyed speculators, greedy middle men/women, con wo/men and local suppliers who are eargely waiting to make a windfall in the next three to five months.
Land Rover KAB 029T discovered at Kaguru IEBC Tallying Centre full of premarked ballot papers for president and governor, onstensibly dispatched by Kiraitu Murungi . It has been arrsted and taken to DC with ODM supporters, awaiting IEBC action
ReplyDeleteNOT SO FAST I THINK YOU GUYS ARE DREAMING :) UHURU PRESIDENCY WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO BE POLLED IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN:)
Threats to CJ prevented barring the two 'Dalton Bros'from the competetion. Yes, New Kenya Laws say: Clear yourself first and then come back to the field to compete.
ReplyDeleteThe two Bros dont have respect for new laws.
We shall bear the consequences of their admin.
Poor Kenya.
We never cease to amaze ourselves on numerous of occasions.
ReplyDeleteThe huge glaring question is how comes a small of group of about five to six million people are the only ones interested in voting, and deciding the future of a whole country that is purported to have a population of over forty-five to fifty million?
Why are the other twenty something million eligible voters always missing in action?
Will the newly created county governments change the unfortunate trend and somehow make a slight difference in the 2017 general election and beyond, as far as voter education, early registration and patriotic participation is concerned?
Seems as though the communities that have been marginalized, used, abuse and wasted by the establishment in the last fifty years are still very allergic to the "political gimmickry" that continues to be showcased as a free and fair general election in every five years.
Case in point, why should a law abiding resident of Suguta Valley, Tana Delta, Liboi, Lokitaung, North Horr, Modogashe, Garsen, Marsabit, Moyale, Manda, Galole, Msambweni, Kwale, Mara, Kitui, and many other forsaken regions of the country bother themselves with the general election in 2017 or 2023?
While knowing very that at the end of the day, or worse, in the next five years, their area will still have received zero delivery basic services from the government aand other affiliated institutions combined?
By the way, why has it taken so many hours for the IEBC to release the results from a general election that involved a small population of the country?
Will the drilling of crude oil from some of the current forsaken areas change the power equation and so-called revenue allocation and the presence of government institutions and representatives in the next five to ten years?
Or, will it be the business of drilling oil as usual such as is the worst case scenario in the Niger Delta of West Africa, where oil revenue find their way in the pockets of few well connected individuals within the corrupt adminstrations?
By the way, what is it taking so many hours for IEBC to release the results from a general election that involved a small percentage of the Kenyan population - five million plus?
For Heaven's sake please stop being
ReplyDeleteso judgemental.The Lord knows what he is doing .
Chris,
ReplyDeleteWho stated the following, and when, where and why?
a) Above everything else Ruto is the only person to defy President Daniel arap Moi in the Rift Valley and survive to talk about a resounding victory?
b) There are those who quickly point to Ruto's massive support in the Rift Valley to prove that the Eldoret North MP will play a major role in decideing who the next occupant of State House will be.
c) His detractors simply point to the Hague and then brash away Mr. Ruto in the hands of the ICC. Hilariously there is a presidential candidate whose main strategy is based on Ruto and Uhuru not being around to challenge him for the presidency, but that is a story for another.
d) While it is true that Raila Odinga can never be underestimated (you have to respect a man who came back from the gallows at Kamiti), my view is that Raila will never again wield the power and influences he wielded in the run up to the 2007 general elections which he actually won as every intelligent non-partisan Kenyan knows.
While some of us are still waiting for the Uhuru Shocker to sink in or evaporate, whichever comes first, the following towering political giants have a lot in common courtesy of the electorate.
ReplyDeleteTalking of seasoned political masterminds like:
Henry Kosgey, a wise man who should have figured out when to let the younger generation take over the chase in the latest hunt in his own backyard.
Charity Ngilu, a presidential contender that never was to begin with, and known to blame her former political rivals for everything that seemed to go wrong in her malfunctioned camp.
Ali Chirau Mwakwere, the sel-proclaimed whale that survived the last beaching but went on and mistook an artficial lagoon for the barrier reefs, where he ended up being swallowed by a talented homegrown catfish.
Gitobu Imanyara, ended up accepting the fact that being forced to face Mt. Kenya was not a bda idea after all, inspite of the great odds and bright sunrays that have continued to melt ice from most peaks.
Samuel Poghisio, thought he had it cushioned and made for another ten years, but was unware that the county grazing grounds were far large and diverse than those in his former constituency. What did him in and hastened his demise was the fact he had failed to he needed to make sure that people who don't own planes or rent helicopters, deseerve to have better rural access roads and bridges, among other very basic services in the last ten years.
Chris Okemo, swallowed more ngenge that he could chew, given his pending leegal problems and pressures derived form fears of being extradited to a foreign court system to face justice.
Cyrus Jirongo, a man with the largest war chest worth billions shillings could not manage to convince his people to help him take one of the regional bull fighter by the horns.
Nicholas Biwott, fails to understand that his region, people and rest of the country has made great strides since 1992 and 2002, one of the resons he will now be remembered as 'a man who got totaled at the polls' when he least expected it.
Mukhisa Kituyi, is man known to have come from far, don't forget to check out a 1989 photo of him taken at Hillcrest Hotel, at a time when was still working for ACTION AID. He should have known better and avoided wrangling it out with a formidable opponent like Musa Wetangula.
Musikari Kombo, was best suited for the elders' council but refused to join his villagers and clansmen due to lack of humility. He still views himself as a king and champion who helped win the political battles that were fought during the early-mid 1990s. Very few of his own trusted people are still afraid of reminding him that he considered as a man whose time evaporated long time ago.
Chris Murungaru, there is very little to talk about the man because the latest humiliating defeat at the polls speaks volumes.
Amos Kimunya, seem to have never gotten the memo that "he must go" and stay away from active politics forever. The bullfighter had tried to gore him severla years ago but the establishment prevailed by helping him retain his portfolio at the time.
The list goes on where many more political giants have either bitten the dust or are in the process of be floored by newcomers whose names were relatively uknown two years ago.
Majority of the people of Othaya have spoken with one clear and loud voice to the point where they have enabled the political stone that had been repeatedly rejected by the builders of status quo to become the elected cornerstone for all politicla purposes.
ReplyDeleteHeaven has no rage love to hatred turned, Nor hell has a fury like a woman scorned.
Looks like a run-off due to third candidate after RAO gets over 5 pc.other donkeys take 5pc
ReplyDeleteChris my brother,
ReplyDeletedoes HARAKA HARAKA haina.....also apply to blogging? just curious bro. hii election NIKAMA NDRAMA NI KAMA VINDIO hold on to your HEART won't you?
PS: TRUE OR FALSE- Taabu and Phil voted in LAIKIPIA WEST?
Luka,
ReplyDeleteIt is a three-horse (UK/Rao/Rej) race. And I am backing the 3rd horse, UTADO?
As Chris of Kumekucha had accurately predicted earlier on before even the likes of Mutahi Ngunyi had heard wind of it, let alone introduced the unpopular but scary phrase 'Tyranny of the Numbers' into daily usage before, during and after the general lection, the former Eldoret North has done it once again against all odds.
ReplyDeleteHe is known to have done against the former 2nd president of Kenya, and this time around, he did it again and indeed played a very major role in determining who the next occupant of the old colonial house on the hill would be.
And the winner, by all accounts - given the body of proof as evidenced by the Tyranny of the Numbers - and soon-to-be occupant is thee president-elect, Mr Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, a man who not only knows every corner of the haunted old house like the back of his hand, but did literally spent a greater part of early childhood and teenage years living and roaming through the major corridors and lavish gardens of the old colonial house on the hill.
Further, to reiterate what many Kenyans from all walks of life have been saying in the months, weeks, days and hours leading to the March 4th, general election, that Kenya is bigger than one individual, now is the time for the rest of the electorate - those who voted for and against the presidential winner - including soooooooooo many Kenyans who did not bother themselves with engaging in the historic elctoral process, to come to terms with the reality and accept the final outcome of the IEBC's verdict, and return to their normal way of life but with very high expectations of better governance in all branches of government, as well as the county governments.
The country will do just fine without Mwai Kibaki and all of his personal and political crews that should retire or exit corridors of power by all accounts.
Likewise, the same goes with Raila Odinga and all of his personal and political crews, who must retire, exit or quit as well.
Congratulations Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta - now to be christened 'UMK' - the 4th President of the Republic of Kenya.