Mutahi NgunyiRegular readers of Kumekucha will have already read the gist of what Ngunyi said yesterday in this blog weeks ago. However I do not entirely agree with everything that he has said.
The mostly-right political analyst claims that Jubilee are short of 900 thousand and something votes to win the presidential elections in the first round and eliminate the need for a run off. Obviously he did not think through this part of his statement. Ngunyi is using figures of registered voters by tribe and assuming a 100 percent turn out and the relevant tribes voting for Uhuru and Ruto to a man. That is of course a fallacy.
Jubilee will win comfortably but we are headed for a run off because other candidates will get substantial votes in their so-called strong holds. Not enough to change the results. But enough to ensure that a 50+1 win in the first round remains unattainable.
CORD supporters are livid about any suggestion that the “scientific” polls may be wrong. One angry commentator wondered why my parents wasted money taking me to school only for me to reject science. Sadly this tells you a lot about many young voters in Kenya today and our educational system which seems to discourage youngsters from thinking on their own (it is like the brain feels pain when you have to use it to think on your own). Others find it impossible to think without emotion during an election such as this one. Technology has of course made things worse with tools like Google search which almost makes it unnecessary to have a brain. Science is NOT perfect and people make mistakes in their methodology. Indeed to embrace science you must start with common sense and known facts and figures from the past. And you must constantly check your scientific results against the same. In my honest view a Jubilee win is not good for Kenya because of so many obvious reasons but I will never allow my feelings to blind me from facing reality. Or worse still to stop me from thinking.
There is one more very dangerous thing that the figures of registered voters by region and past voting patterns are saying. It is clear that CORD will have a very hard time coming in second. Although the other candidates will eat into the votes of both CORD and Jubilee, CORD will be the worst hit. It is true that there is a growing number of Kenyan voters who will NOT vote tribally like the majority supporting CORD and Jubilee the one who will be most affected by this will be CORD. Just accept to feel pain in the brain for a minute and think. What do you think caused the extra-ordinarily high voter registration in certain Jubilee strongholds? It is because a vast majority of those voters were registering with a very clear motive in mind; to get their man into State house at all costs. Those votes are already in the bank for Jubilee, as Ngunyi puts it. The same however cannot be said for CORD, not even in Nyanza.
I am here to give you the facts and I hope most of you will appreciate that. Later I will tell you who I will vote for… much later. Until then please do not brand me as a supporter of any candidate just because what I have written is good news for a particular camp. Let’s grow up shall we…
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