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Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Is Mutahi Ngunyi right about a Jubilee win?

Mutahi Ngunyi   
Regular readers of Kumekucha will have already read the gist of what Ngunyi said yesterday in this blog weeks ago. However I do not entirely agree with everything that he has said.

The mostly-right political analyst claims that Jubilee are short of 900 thousand and something votes to win the presidential elections in the first round and eliminate the need for a run off. Obviously he did not think through this part of his statement. Ngunyi is using figures of registered voters by tribe and assuming a 100 percent turn out and the relevant tribes voting for Uhuru and Ruto to a man. That is of course a fallacy.

Jubilee will win comfortably but we are headed for a run off because other candidates will get substantial votes in their so-called strong holds. Not enough to change the results. But enough to ensure that a 50+1 win in the first round remains unattainable.

CORD supporters are livid about any suggestion that the “scientific” polls may be wrong. One angry commentator wondered why my parents wasted money taking me to school only for me to reject science. Sadly this tells you a lot about many young voters in Kenya today and our educational system which seems to discourage youngsters from thinking on their own (it is like the brain feels pain when you have to use it to think on your own). Others find it impossible to think without emotion during an election such as this one. Technology has of course made things worse with tools like Google search which almost makes it unnecessary to have a brain. Science is NOT perfect and people make mistakes in their methodology. Indeed to embrace science you must start with common sense and known facts and figures from the past. And you must constantly check your scientific results against the same. In my honest view a Jubilee win is not good for Kenya because of so many obvious reasons but I will never allow my feelings to blind me from facing reality. Or worse still to stop me from thinking.

There is one more very dangerous thing that the figures of registered voters by region and past voting patterns are saying. It is clear that CORD will have a very hard time coming in second. Although the other candidates will eat into the votes of both CORD and Jubilee, CORD will be the worst hit. It is true that there is a growing number of Kenyan voters who will NOT vote tribally like the majority supporting CORD and Jubilee the one who will be most affected by this will be CORD. Just accept to feel pain in the brain for a minute and think. What do you think caused the extra-ordinarily high voter registration in certain Jubilee strongholds? It is because a vast majority of those voters were registering with a very clear motive in mind; to get their man into State house at all costs. Those votes are already in the bank for Jubilee, as Ngunyi puts it. The same however cannot be said for CORD, not even in Nyanza.

I am here to give you the facts and I hope most of you will appreciate that. Later I will tell you who I will vote for… much later. Until then please do not brand me as a supporter of any candidate just because what I have written is good news for a particular camp. Let’s grow up shall we…

Visit and "like" this Kumekucha page for real time updates on the 2013 presidential elections.


Anonymous said...

Mutahi Ngunyi told us as a people and nation what some of us wanted to hear, while others needed to hear at the time - early-mid 2007.

Some of us went on to curse him out with all the venom we had in our reserves, while others were heard cheering him loud for months, quoting him and distributing the article in question by any means we could.

So, why should Mutahi Ngunyi's calculated political observation - trajeectory of the 2013 general election - be any different in 2013, now that he has spoken once again with candor?

And why are the cheering crowds of 2007 cursing him in 2013, while the cursing crowds of 2007 cheering and praising him in 2013?

Mutahi Ngunyi has told some of us an inconvenient truth about ourselves as a nation that is very much divided in the middle as we head for the polls on March 4th, where there are bound to be big-time winners and very bitter losers.

Are we, the people, as a fifty-year old nation willing, able and ready to give credit where its due this time around - five years later - and embrace the inconvenient truth regardless of our respective political inclinitions or preferences?

Are we, the people, willing, able and ready to allow democracy to flourish once the will of the people has been spoken through the majority of the voters after March 4th?

Or shall we decide to remain the Banana Republic will have always been whenever the presidential election come knocking at our doors and windows for fleeting moments?

Anonymous said...


Why would a win for Jubilee be bad for the country while a win for Cord be good for the same country?

What are the obvious given the fact that the real difference between Jublee and Cord is worth a Canadian penny with a production that was discontinued in 2013?

The good question is why are voters in certain Cord strongholds not registering in droves in order to make sure that they put their chosen one - main man - and his anointed circles of political crew and close friends in old static house on the hill?

Given what you stated, it seems as if Jubilee's front runners, bankrollers, and foot soldiers are enganged in an incredible monumental task of adequatily preparing themselves and making sure that they are well equiped for political battle and the final assault throughout the morning, noon and evening hours of the day on March 4th?

How comes the same can not be said of the diehards, old faithful, seasonal supporters, footsoldiers and bankrollers within the political camp for Cord?

What became of forewarned is to be forearmed, in other words, well prepared by hook and crook?

Anonymous said...

Why not wait and see whether the prophecies of Mutahi wa Ngunyi stand the test of the 4th of March in a matter of weeks.

In the meantime, there are self-anointed leaders, call them political ringmasters - the awaited regional messiahs - within the current entities better known as Cord and Jubilee who will soon find themselves caught between a rock and a hard-to-stay place, or in a very hard-to-accept position after the 4th of March.

One of them and many of his loyal sycophantic political crews believe that they have already mapped out their extraordinary post March 4th political adventures, strategies and governing blueprint, but unbeknown to them, there are people in their midst who were allowed - for all thee wrong reasons - to hold their well hidden political cards and carry around all of their campaign eggs in one basket code named "probability" without any safety net.

They really need to beware of the 4th of March, because someone forgot to present a systematic political survey of what can go wrong, why it goes wrong, and how the political body should or not respond, as well as what 'messiahs' can do to intervene once the separation process between the winners and the losers has been carried out by the will of the majority.

Some of us are already looking forward to hear and read more about the intriguing political and personal details of the looming election drama which has led to the prophecies by one voice of reason, the visionary Mutahi wa Ngunyi.

Anonymous said...

kudos kumekucha.

pls keep them coming.

i never comment but couldn't resist this time.

Anonymous said...

so moi was the nationalist who won in almost all the provinces....

Anonymous said...

Jubilee will WIN first round.
Mark my words

The Oracle has Spoken.

chola said...

If Mutahi Ngunyi was lets know who he will vote for from his heart me think Cord from his head me think Jubilee.
Raila Has his 9th life , Uhruto have 9 more lifes

Anonymous said...

Four legs? Good!!! Two legs? Bad!!!

Who among us would not hate to reiterate the sad fact that ordinary Kenyans have allowed themselves to be teased, played with, mocked and used on so many occasions by most of the candidates from all political camps that are craving to put their person in the old static house on the hill.

Here we are busy fighting one another based on who we support, what political parties and coalitions we belong to until March 4th, what regions we come from, what languages we speak, and where we want our president, one of our own to come from and govern the whole country at the expense of the other ordinary people who do not share our common political, ethnic and regional interests.

Yet all along the wise politicians, their handlers, associates, March-4th-allies, and bankrollers have set their eyes on the prize, which has always been known to them as The Animal Farm.

We, the ordinary people, have perfected the art of 'seasonal political' hating, pointing ethnic fingers, raising regional clenched fists and class barriers at other ordinary people for all the wrong reasons under the skies above Kenya.

What always escapes us, the ordinary people, is the sad fact that SRC statistics show that the estimated (actually overly underestimated) public sector wage billed for the fiscal year 2012/13 has hit 457.5 billion, a whopping 30.2 percent of the Sh1.51 trillion national budget.

Unfortunately for the ordinary people, at the end of the day and worst of all at the beginning of every general election cycle, there is not a single tangible in terms of any developments or benefits for the ordinary people in the urban and rural regions of the country.

It the wise political fellas, the well connected, and seasoned insiders who will end up getting a prized seat at the static house, governors' mansions, senate, parliament and within other elective offices, including lucrative business contracts, all located at The Animal House.

While at the same time, their people, friends, associates and selected clients will be rewarded with plum appointments and granted the carte blanche mandate to 'own' and run the commissions such as the CIC, CRA, IEBC, SRC, PSC, TSC, TA, EACC, KNHRC, including many other state own entities in the country and abroad (foreign missions) for the next five to ten years.

We. the ordinary people, never bother with asking ourselves what we will have gain or benefited as individuals, a people, and country, once the spoils of the March 4th general election have been divided among the leaders and the politically well connected people within the various political camps and coalition that will emerge victorious?

The 'House' located on The Animal Farm always regardless of who takes over the business of the house.

Four legs? Good!!! Two legs? Bad!!!

Anonymous said...

The Kenya Shillings is already suffering because of possible win of culprits.

I foresee that 1 US Dollar will be equal to 150 Ksh on the 5th of March.

It is upon us to avoid this and elect leaders with a heart for Kenya.

Anonymous said...

The review of the wages:

Kenya can not afford to pay all these millions.

The MAXIMUM amount(all allowances inclusive)should be as follows:

President: 800,000 Khs
Dep President: 600,000 Ksh
Governor: 500,000Ksh
Speaker: 500,000 Ksh
Minister: 450,000 Ksh
Senetor: 450,000 Ksh
MP: 400,000 Ksh

Any corruption scandal involving an MP should automatically lead to 20% reduction of wages of all MPS unless the MPS force those involved to resign (NOT step aside)

Any corruption scandal involving the gov should automatically lead to 30% reduction of wages of all in Cabinet including President.

All must pay full tax to the total amount.
Politicians incl cabinet should not debate their salaries or decide the amounts.

This is the way to fight corruption and greed in our country.

Anonymous said...

quote of the day:

"I have refused to ALLOW MULTIPARTY DEMOCRACY in Kenya because it will divide Kenyans along TRIBAL LINES.

Vyama vingi vitaleta UKABILA Kenya.Siku moja mtakubali haya maneno yangu"

2RD MARCH 1992

Anonymous said...

Ati we have to be careful to avoid a sitution where we cannot 'attract' and 'retain' the BEST of the BEST through rigid terms.

What constitutes "the best of the best"who hold plum jobs worth over Sh1.5 million per month in our not so-wealthy nation of Kenya?

Is there a yardstick or barometer for measuring the quarterly or yearly job performance by "the best of the best" in the country has to offer?

How comes "the best of the best" who have been employed in plum government jobs since 2003 and 2007have yet to deliver as promised?

Are the current permanent secretaries in Kenya "the best of the best" that could be found suitable to serve the country?

The so-called "the best of the best" should have been delivering "the best of the best" services to the public in the last ten years, rather than wasting valuable time panicking about the what will happen to their entitled lifestyles once a pay cut from Sh1.5 million per month to Sh910.000 becomes effective under the new SRS scheme.

By the way, does the Sh1.5 million per month salary include the extraordinary perks that permanent secretaries and other bwana kubwa have been enjoying for years, not to mention the unlimited expenses wasted on the maintenance of government issued vehicles, fuel, weekly local flights, etc?

Including the unnecessary huge entertainment bills, time wasting trips - tours/short vacations - to Europe, Asia, North America, Australia and South Africa under the guise of attending one conference, convention, meeting, 'refresher' course after another?

Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous said...
Ati we have to be careful to avoid a sitution where we cannot 'attract' and 'retain' the BEST of the BEST through rigid terms.


Bwa ha ha ha ha ha he he he ta ta ta ta we we we we w ra ra ra ra ri ri ri ri ri ga ga ga ga ga gwa gwa gwa gwa..

Kenyans still DON'T get it!

The struggle for political power since 1980's has had nothing to do with your well being. In your DELUSIONS, ILLUSIONS and CHILDISH FANTASIES, you thought so. Pole sana.

When the private sector started shrinking,the only place left to make some money was in the public sector.

This explains the war against Moi by those who had fallen from the grace in late 1980's and early 1990's.

In this way then, even the CONstitution reforms were not about your well being. It was about creating JOBS for the old and the upcoming OLIGARCHS.

That mission was brilliantly accomplished with YOUR SUPPORT. Some were even CRYING on that DAY!

Now, it is for YOU KENYANS to pay the bill!

So, PAY and SHUT up!


And, there was a time we used to get a lot of "analysis" about that KANGAROO COURT based in the Hague.

What happened to those "analysis?"

We are hearing that: "...the Kenya case was turning out to be one of the most challenging before The Hague court currently."

Would one of the BEST analysts please, enlighten us as to why this Kenyan file is becoming so challenging?

As we wait for that analysis on how WITNESSES are COACHED, we leave to enjoy:

They don't want to see us unite:
All they want us to do is keep on fussing and fighting.

They don't want to see us live together:

All they want us to do is keep on killing one another.

Anonymous said...

Now it has started:
The US, EU, France, etc will oppose a Kenyan presidency with dark past.

The Kenya Shilling is already feeling it.

Anonymous said...

Old man is partly to blame for the current political mess he created and left behind to haunt the next three generations of Kenyans.

Although he did envision a messy political future for the country, he has lived long enough to see it haunt and bite hard at the current population.

2RD MARCH 1992 is a long time from 4TH MARCH 2013, yet the same old dirty ukabila games are still in vogue all over the country.

Ironically most of the political old guard who fought tooth and nail to get rid of him during the early 1990s, are all gone and forgotten to a greater extent by the present generations.

While at the same time, very little has changed in terms of how dirty ukabila politics are engineered, and endemic corruption skillfully supported and tolerated by the general population, thanks to 2RD MARCH 1992.

The only difference is that spotted hyenas in the pulic sector and stripped hyenas in the private sector have never changed their hunting grounds but simply elevated their ways and means of 'eating together' at their own peril.

Kenya's national passtime of 'eating together' will continue to be enhanced even after the 4th March 2013.

Luke said...

Chris my brother,
imitate Mutahi's SWAGGER won't you? (please note RED CRAVAT in the picture) wapi yako? just curious bro

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Anonymous said...

My take on this,it is also wrong to assume that all central belongs to uhuru,am central damu and will vote in rao for genuine change. kenyans have evolved and are now issue based, am sure that some of my friends from the lake will also vote in uhuru.

Anonymous said...

My take on this,it is also wrong to assume that all central belongs to uhuru,am central damu and will vote in rao for genuine change. kenyans have evolved and are now issue based, am sure that some of my friends from the lake will also vote in uhuru.

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Anonymous said...

Chris, vuka sasa, wacha kusema utavuka na bado, and Chris, why are you taking almost 24 hour leave at such a busy time? anyways waiting for you to dish the dirt on these diplomatic wabeberu who decided to raid on us today and dictate nonsense to us.

Anonymous said...

Ngunyi has been a spin doctor since 2004 when he left Nation Media Group. What he was mandated to achieve with the tyranny of numbers piece was to deflect attention away from the hot land question and energise the tribal bases of his paymasters who were already getting frustrated with the Ipsos,Infotrack and strategic opinion polls. His arithmetic of basing his argument by clustering the Kikuyu+Kalenjin=6.2 million votes and Luo+Kamba=2.9 million votes and hence gives his paymasters a headstart should be a good reason for his paymasters to look for another spin doctor.
Cord has quite a junk of pockets of votes in Western,RV, Kisii Nyanza, Nairobi, North Eastern and even Meru which if added together should have constituted part of his deductions. Another demographic which escaped him are the middle class voters who as at today are aware of the implications of voting for a tribal kingpin just for the sake of it and might deliver a surprise for their country, families and of course jobs. The stakes are high not just numbers. So for Ngunyi to espouse a spin of numbers to his paymasters and with the knowledge that what might win these elections are far much removed away from the numbers unlike the other past elections. In terms of propaganda to the masses cord is way ahead on where to spin them and win more undecided.

Anonymous said...

The reality is still remains,another kikuyu presidency is very hard to sell outside of central and riftvalley,which mark you are the only jubilee strongholds.Uhurus undoing is not the ICC case but rather his tribe.Period

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