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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Inside the TNA And Cord Campaign Strategies: The Gloves Come Off

Kumekucha Exclusive
Politics is dirty and calling it a game is an understatement. Many young Kenyan voters are new to it and I see them naive and excited in social media focusing all their attention on the surface and on the wrong things. This is sad because they are the most important swing vote in this election.
Anyway the big question here is what is going on inside the TNA and CORD campaigns? What kind of strategic thinking is going on?

The CORD campaigns are informed by the controversial opinion polls which put them ahead. But the old experienced hands behind that campaign are not missing a trick. Sample the following;

Moses Wetangula was carefully chosen to be the one to take a swipe at Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the large tracts of land that were grabbed by his father and the foundation of his immense wealth. The right response would have been to completely ignore that statement. Instead the eager youngsters at TNA took the bait hook line and sinker and where many Kenyan were not even aware of what Wetangula had said they helped broadcast it far and wide by lodging a complaint with IEBC claiming that the statement was bound to incite people to violence amongst other things. That complaint received much more coverage than the original statement madeat a campaign rally. Game shot. In the last few days CORD has followed up with even Raila Odinga himself calling for the Kenyatta land to be returned and some of it donated to IDPs.

Naturally the impact of all this was completely lost to most people living in the comfort of Nairobi. The truth is that land is a very emotive issue in Kenya and the kind of thing that could easily influence millions of votes in rural Kenya, especially in areas where there is a huge shortage of land and Kenyans are feeling boxed in. Admittedly this may not have much effect in Central province where the problem is acute but it will certainly have the desired impact in many other parts of the country including the Coast.

The TNA strategy is informed by the following figures of registered voters;

Central province Kikuyus; 2,190,477
Meru/Embu;  866,329
Kikuyu in Rift Valley; 1,166,146
Kalenjin: 1,523,325
Nairobi; 1,778,903

It is no secret that a vast majority of the Kikuyu vote is solidly behind Uhuru. My information on the ground is that at least 40% of the Kalenjin vote at the moment is behind the Jubilee alliance. In Nairobi popular candidates like Ferdinand Waititu and Mike Sonko whose followers will do as they are told means that the son of Jomo has at least 60% of the city vote already in his pocket. You do not need to be a statistician to realize that Uhuru would win without breaking into a sweat if elections were held today, the scientific opinion polls not withstanding.

CORD supporters may spend the whole day on social media making it look like CORD has popular support in Nairobi and people may release highly scientific opinion polls (that defy common sense, according to Dr Mukhisa Kituyi) but that does not change the facts. People like you and this blogger who believe they are very well informed and wise could sit down and try and analyze voting patterns like we were in the United States, but that would still not change the figures which I have put before you today in black and white.

According to TNA and according to this blogger TNA are ahead in the polls. And if elections were held today they would win. What CORD need to really get worried about is why somebody would be so keen and enthusiastic to convince them that they are ahead.

However that was just a by the way because this post is about strategy and NOT faulty opinion polls.

If you have been observant enough you will have noticed that Uhuru has started injected Kikuyu statements into his campaign speeches. This is deliberate and he is simply locking in his votes and reminding the house of Mumbi not to forget that one of their own is in need.

In the coming days we should expect more vicious attacks from the two main political coalitions. CORD will continue to talk a lot about land and political dynasties. They will also focus on those who were in the no campaign at the time of referendum for the new constitution and they will want to discuss with wananchi the reason why those prominent individuals like William Ruto (now in TNA) were so strongly opposed to the new constitution.

TNA will do all that needs to be done to ensure a high voter turn out in Central province and Rift Valley and the Kikuyu comments in speeches should continue when Uhuru is before his supporters. Everything else you will see Jubilee do will be a smoke screen.

Third force
Unknown to most Kenyans apart from the big two coalition parties that are favourites to win there is a third force in these elections influencing things enormously. My money is on this third force being the final say on who the next president of Kenya will be. That force is State house and all the state resources that are controlling more things in these elections than most Kenyans will ever believe. Their preferred candidate and the sensational things that are about to happen in the coming months is pretty sensitive and it is something that I cannot discuss in an open forum such as this one. However subscribers to my raw notes have already been receiving some of this information and will be receiving more sizzlers in the days and weeks to come. You can subscribe to my free raw notes updates so that you at least have an idea of what is being discussed.

Will Sakaja's inexperience cost Uhuru the election?


Anonymous said...

Chris, you seem to have lost your blogging mojo.
Three quarters of this post is a pull out word by word from the one done last week (will Sakaja inexperience cost uhuru the elections?). A perfect example of many words saying nothing. I believe this is not just a coincidence, its a dliberate attempt to keep readers focused on this stale issue. That said, as usual when you expect Chris to reveal something new, he sends you to the raw notes where you are required to subscribe with 250 KSHS per so called sensitive information. Back to the land issue, See how Chris mentions nothing about Wetangula's Tokyo land saga where the so called principal stole billions of taxpayers money and had to be suspended for close to a year. In the same breath, Chris does not find any need to make reference to the land theft cases involving Raila aka stolen molasses land, Malindi squatters land whose case is still being determined, and the other land in Bondo belonging to an institution. Is this selective amnesia or is Chris of Kumekucha compromised by CORDomites like it was earlier alleged.
They say action speak louder that words.

Anonymous said...

From KK archives by one blogger Jane:


Yesterday I highlighted your loopsided reporting and today I am 100% convinced that you are an ODM gun for hire.

We all know Wetangura's scandal in Tokyo Land Deal where the arrogant minister stole a cool 1 billion. He was even suspended for a couple of months over the same scandal. Any reporter worth his salt would not fail to mention such blatant hypocricy in such a case. But not Chris.

Talking about land, Raila was found culpable of Malindi squatters land, molasses plant, KKV funds and the Triton Saga but Chris of Kumekucha can't write about it. Last year he dared to spill the beans before he went underground for a couple of months. What a hypocrite!!

Uhuru inherited wealth accumulated by his father. He did not steal any land but you want him to bear that cross. How pathetic considering those shouting loudest LITERALLY STOLE from the public and are DIRECTLY CULPABLE!

In short, Chris you are compromised and you are another blogger out there on FORA payroll.


Let me say this. Uhuru does not own all the land that his father owned. That land is legally a property of the the whole Kenyatta family, Ngina and the other wives, and their siblings. So how can Uhuru Muigai disposses and re-distribute land owned by more than 30 of his relatives?
Compare that to Wetangula or Raila who acquired mollases land illegally. The poor peasants who had bought shares in mollasses were swindled by the opinion poll president. There are no third parties, same as Malindi squatters land. Or do we prefer the 21st century thief of 100 acres to the 20th century thief of 1000 acres?

Anonymous said...

Ooooh my. This kind of arithmetic did cost the PNU think-tank the wider picture of the election outcome, by concentrating only on the the tribal numbers and treating the numbers as the only strategy. I hope any Jubilee strategist want fall into the bait of this propaganda Chris is trying to sell here, because if they do and they do not have enough executive power to steal the elections like MK did, they will be surprised that the LAND issue that CORD has jumped on will either lead to voter apathy in Rift valley or quite a chunk voting for either Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua in Central Kenya(this was the winning issue on the 2005 referendum but now reloaded with Cord effect).
I can advise both campaign teams to inject more energy to their propaganda machines for the next one month and CORD is already ahead. In Rift valley the common man is told to vote for the presidency with his head and the rest should go to URP, this is a clear illustration of how to broadcast what the man or woman down there feels is important(). Uhuruto should do away with those in charge of their propaganda research and dissemination think-tank because how the hell can you be talking so much about age, digital, analogue and the propaganda material which can easily sway some votes to your side are so obvious. Forget about Kumekucha's advice on numbers because he is part of the CORD propaganda mouthpiece. Concentrate on the flimsy reasons that win elections in Africa, then come back to what you call issues after you've won. Instead of playing to the media gallery illustrating long monologues on issues which the common man cannot digest as at now. Even in central every listener keeps quiet when Raila comes on air because in as much as they will not vote for him, he is interesting to listen to and a number of people are nodding yenyewe to his land mouthfulls.
Kings One

Anonymous said...

Great post Chris.

This is why I read this blog every elections. Where else can you get the info packed in this post, including those figures.

No wonder this is the leading political blog in Kenya.

The comments have to be read with a pinch of salt. Some are reasonable and well thought out, many are obviously written by watu wa mkono wa some politicians.

Mwarang'ethe said...

"In the coming days .. CORD ... will also focus on those who were in the no campaign at the time of referendum for the new constitution and they will want to discuss with wananchi the reason why those prominent individuals like William Ruto (now in TNA) were so strongly opposed to the new constitution."


Because, what is there in that WONDERFUL Constitution for you Mr. Chris?

Sample this REALITY as opposed to POROJO ambazo hazina maana:

"Kenyans to pay more for money transfer."

"Mobile phone subscribers will now have to pay more for money transfer transactions following the gazettement of a law allowing taxation.

Subscribers will now pay 10 per cent MORE for M-Pesa and transactions worth more than Sh101 effective Friday 8.

The amendments allowing for the introduction of the tax are contained in the Finance Act of 2012 in a move that is likely to push up the cost of mobile money transactions as the government seeks to earn ADDITIONAL REVENUE to meet its BUDGETARY obligations [ SUCH AS PAYING IDLERS who will be called Governors, Senators, WOMEN so called Representatives, USELESS Commissioners etc].

Safaricom chief executive officer Bob Collymore, said the move is premature as it could dent efforts to deepen financial inclusion in the country."

Someone once observed that, there have NEVER BEEN ANY PRIMITIVE PEOPLE so STUPID to believe that, their PROSPERITY lies in MORE TAXATION.

Oops! That observer died a bit early because, Kenyans have done what no STUPID PRIMITIVE People have ever done on this earth!

Congratulations Kenyans!

NB: Taxation is there not to prevent capital formation, but, to PROTECT capital formation! However, Kenyans have the other way round!


With that, we leave to enjoy:


Anonymous said...

Na mambo bado, Mutula Kilonzo predicts a Jubilee landslide before noon 4th March 2013 and Warns CORD to shape up and stop the divisive nepotism, favoritism and bullying tactics at once or else...wooi CORD KWICHA MANENO!

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