Politics is dirty and calling it a game is an understatement. Many young Kenyan voters are new to it and I see them naive and excited in social media focusing all their attention on the surface and on the wrong things. This is sad because they are the most important swing vote in this election.
Anyway the big question here is what is going on inside the TNA and CORD campaigns? What kind of strategic thinking is going on?
The CORD campaigns are informed by the controversial opinion polls which put them ahead. But the old experienced hands behind that campaign are not missing a trick. Sample the following;
Moses Wetangula was carefully chosen to be the one to take a swipe at Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the large tracts of land that were grabbed by his father and the foundation of his immense wealth. The right response would have been to completely ignore that statement. Instead the eager youngsters at TNA took the bait hook line and sinker and where many Kenyan were not even aware of what Wetangula had said they helped broadcast it far and wide by lodging a complaint with IEBC claiming that the statement was bound to incite people to violence amongst other things. That complaint received much more coverage than the original statement madeat a campaign rally. Game shot. In the last few days CORD has followed up with even Raila Odinga himself calling for the Kenyatta land to be returned and some of it donated to IDPs.
Naturally the impact of all this was completely lost to most people living in the comfort of Nairobi. The truth is that land is a very emotive issue in Kenya and the kind of thing that could easily influence millions of votes in rural Kenya, especially in areas where there is a huge shortage of land and Kenyans are feeling boxed in. Admittedly this may not have much effect in Central province where the problem is acute but it will certainly have the desired impact in many other parts of the country including the Coast.
The TNA strategy is informed by the following figures of registered voters;
Central province Kikuyus; 2,190,477
Kikuyu in Rift Valley; 1,166,146
It is no secret that a vast majority of the Kikuyu vote is solidly behind Uhuru. My information on the ground is that at least 40% of the Kalenjin vote at the moment is behind the Jubilee alliance. In Nairobi popular candidates like Ferdinand Waititu and Mike Sonko whose followers will do as they are told means that the son of Jomo has at least 60% of the city vote already in his pocket. You do not need to be a statistician to realize that Uhuru would win without breaking into a sweat if elections were held today, the scientific opinion polls not withstanding.
CORD supporters may spend the whole day on social media making it look like CORD has popular support in Nairobi and people may release highly scientific opinion polls (that defy common sense, according to Dr Mukhisa Kituyi) but that does not change the facts. People like you and this blogger who believe they are very well informed and wise could sit down and try and analyze voting patterns like we were in the United States, but that would still not change the figures which I have put before you today in black and white.
According to TNA and according to this blogger TNA are ahead in the polls. And if elections were held today they would win. What CORD need to really get worried about is why somebody would be so keen and enthusiastic to convince them that they are ahead.
However that was just a by the way because this post is about strategy and NOT faulty opinion polls.
If you have been observant enough you will have noticed that Uhuru has started injected Kikuyu statements into his campaign speeches. This is deliberate and he is simply locking in his votes and reminding the house of Mumbi not to forget that one of their own is in need.
In the coming days we should expect more vicious attacks from the two main political coalitions. CORD will continue to talk a lot about land and political dynasties. They will also focus on those who were in the no campaign at the time of referendum for the new constitution and they will want to discuss with wananchi the reason why those prominent individuals like William Ruto (now in TNA) were so strongly opposed to the new constitution.
TNA will do all that needs to be done to ensure a high voter turn out in Central province and Rift Valley and the Kikuyu comments in speeches should continue when Uhuru is before his supporters. Everything else you will see Jubilee do will be a smoke screen.
Unknown to most Kenyans apart from the big two coalition parties that are favourites to win there is a third force in these elections influencing things enormously. My money is on this third force being the final say on who the next president of Kenya will be. That force is State house and all the state resources that are controlling more things in these elections than most Kenyans will ever believe. Their preferred candidate and the sensational things that are about to happen in the coming months is pretty sensitive and it is something that I cannot discuss in an open forum such as this one. However subscribers to my raw notes have already been receiving some of this information and will be receiving more sizzlers in the days and weeks to come. You can subscribe to my free raw notes updates so that you at least have an idea of what is being discussed.
Will Sakaja's inexperience cost Uhuru the election?